Alaska projected to see a lower population by 2050

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – New data suggests that Alaska will see a decreasing population over the next three decades or so.

The Department of Labor and Workforce Development released its Alaska Populations Projects report on Wednesday, which states, “Alaska will likely grow for the first 10 years but as the population ages, annual natural growth will slow, leading to projected losses through migration.”

These findings are based on state demographics, using past and current population trends, including looking at the net migration, along with birth and death rates.

“We say, ‘What would happen if we continue to see those trends going out 30 years?” David Howell, a state demographer for the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, said. “So it’s just kind of a picture of what it would look like if we see similar population change over the next 30 years that we’ve seen the last 30 years.”

By 2050, the report states that Alaska is projected to have a population of 722,806. It amounts to roughly 14,000 fewer people than the state recorded in 2023, about a 2% drop.

The state is expecting to see an increase to the Alaska Native population, raising the demographic from 22% to 25% of the state’s overall population by 2025.

However, the drop in overall population is the first time during a set of projections in this time frame that a loss in Alaska’s state population was projected, Howell said.

“Our net migration losses are not made up for by what we refer to as natural increase, which is just births minus deaths,” Howell explained.

The data collected from the report, the department said, can help the state plan for the future. It can give Alaskans a better idea about how many residents will be driving on the roads, students in schools, and senior care needs.

That is especially important in this report, Howell said, where the data sees a trend of an increasing senior demographic.

“We need to get … those medical pieces in place for that population because we haven’t historically had a large senior population,” Howell said. “That will be a different level of medical care than they’ve needed in the past.”

At the same time, the state is seeing a lower birth rate, causing the population to lean older. That, combined with a negative net migration over the years, has caused a decrease in the working-age population.

“We need everyone. We need more people,” Gov. Mike Dunleavy said in his 2024 State of the State address earlier this year. “There’s no question about it, and encouraging pro-life policies that lead to more people having families and kids shouldn’t be controversial … Whether you’re a student of history or just a casual observer, we can’t have the kind of economic activity, growth, and technological advancements that have built civilization over thousands of years without an increasing population.”

“It is, of course, concerning that we are projecting a lower population for the future,” Adam Weinert, the special assistant for the state’s commissioner, said.

Weinert said that the Department of Labor and Workforce Development has been focusing on trying to engage with the youth population and encourage Alaskan residents to stay in the state.

“Engaging with our veterans, engaging with those who are new to the state is going to help us try to turn this population — to turn the population trend around,” Weinert said.

Ongoing efforts from the Department of Labor and Workforce Development include re-establishing the Office of Citizenship Assistance, creating partnerships with the Department of Defense, and creating career guides to work with youth.

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