By Ken Rosenthal, Stephen J. Nesbitt and Zack Meisel

With playoff odds below one percent, the Pittsburgh Pirates easily could justify shutting down their electrifying ace, right-hander Paul Skenes.

This is Skenes’ first full professional season. He has thrown 125 1/3 innings between the majors and minors, nearly as many as he did a year ago between LSU and his brief debut in the Pirates’ system. By ending Skenes’ brilliant rookie campaign, team officials could cite the protection of Skenes’ long-term health and preservation of him for a potential playoff run in 2025.

They also could operate with a compelling ulterior motive — the possible prevention of Skenes from finishing first or second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting, an outcome that would deprive him of gaining a full year of service time and keep him in Pittsburgh for at least one additional season.

The Pirates currently have no such plans, according to sources briefed on their thinking. They have no set innings limit for Skenes. The only restriction they are considering, assuming Skenes stays healthy, is potentially shortening his outings. The Chicago White Sox are taking just that approach with left-hander Garrett Crochet, who is working as a starter for the first time in his professional career.

Skenes, 22, did not make his major-league debut until May 11, but could automatically earn a full year of service under a rule adopted by the league and players’ union in the 2022 collective-bargaining agreement. The rule, designed to discourage teams from manipulating the service time of top young players, rewards the top two finishers in each league’s Rookie of the Year voting, regardless of how many days they spend in the majors.

Paul Skenes leaves his MLB debut to a standing ovation! pic.twitter.com/nSGK6WAa8J

— MLB (@MLB) May 11, 2024

This is how Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman and Cleveland Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee, runners-up for the AL rookie award in 2022 and ‘23, respectively, received full years of service even though they did not meet the typical requirement of 172 days out of a 187-day season.

The new rule effectively puts voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America in position to deprive a low-revenue team such as the Pirates an extra year of a superstar player — a far more consequential outcome than the individual cash bonuses that are frequently tied to the awards.

For the Pirates, the difference between keeping Skenes for five more years and six would be enormous. As a club that generally operates with a bottom-five payroll, the chances of Pittsburgh signing Skenes to a lucrative extension would be extremely low. The difference for Skenes, too, could be immense. His last year of arbitration could turn into the first year of a free-agent payday, and he would become eligible for the open market after his age-27 season rather than a year later. By continuing his ascent as a generational talent, he would be in position for a historic contract.

Skenes started the All-Star Game two months into his major-league career. He might finish first or second for NL Rookie of the Year even if he does not throw another pitch this season. But the pack chasing him is closing.

San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill has emerged as a front-runner. Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio since June 1 has an OPS of nearly .900. San Francisco Giants shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald could produce a 20-homer, 20-stolen base season in fewer than 100 games. Then there’s Chicago Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, who trails Skenes in ERA (3.11 to 2.30) but will finish with considerably more volume, especially if the Pirates elect to aggressively manage Skenes’ innings.

Thus, the temptation for the Pirates to shut down Skenes — and effectively damage his Rookie of the Year chances — is not insignificant. A sixth consecutive losing season would sting even more if the Pirates also lost a year of club control over their young ace. Even worse for the Pirates, under another rule adopted in the 2022 CBA, the Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI), the team would not even receive a draft pick if Skenes won Rookie of the Year.

For a team to secure the pick, it must include a consensus top-100 prospect on its Opening Day roster or promote him within the first two weeks, then benefit from the player either winning Rookie or the Year or finishing top three in the MVP or Cy Young Award voting. Three clubs have realized that incentive — the Seattle Mariners with center fielder Julio Rodríguez, the Orioles with shortstop Gunnar Henderson and the Arizona Diamondbacks with outfielder Corbin Carroll.

The stakes for this year’s candidates differ according to circumstances. Merrill could fetch the Padres a PPI pick. Fitzgerald cannot get one for the Giants or earn a full year of service. Chourio and Imanaga signed long-term deals before their debuts, rendering their clubs ineligible for PPI selections.

The incentive, another way of discouraging clubs from engaging in service-time manipulation, was drawn up with prospects like Skenes in mind. But the Pirates called up Skenes too late for him to become eligible. They believed a slow ramp-up would be in his best interests. They also knew, at least for the possibility of securing an extra pick, it might compromise their own.

The risks for teams carrying Rodríguez, Henderson and Carroll on Opening Day rosters were relatively minimal. All three spent at least two seasons in the minors, becoming fixtures in their organizations. And, as position players, the concerns about their workloads were less pronounced than they were for pitchers.

Skenes, as something of a unicorn, complicated the equation.

The Pirates chose him with the first pick of the 2023 draft. They allowed him to throw a combined 6 2/3 innings at three minor-league levels coming off his 122 2/3 innings at LSU. They monitored his work during the offseason, some of which took place at their spring training facility in Bradenton, Fla.

Spring training 2024, however, was Skenes’ first as a professional, and the first for the Pirates’ major-league staff around him. The Pirates opted for a deliberate approach, wanting to learn more about his body, his delivery, his pitching. They also wanted to avoid building him up too quickly, knowing they almost certainly would want him in the majors during the season. With a traditional starter’s buildup, Skenes would have been on a path toward blowing past his 2023 innings total too quickly.

So, Skenes threw all of three innings in major-league exhibitions. His rookie teammate, right-hander Jared Jones, threw 16 1/3. The Pirates knew Skenes would not be ready to carry a full starter’s workload by Opening Day. That was never their plan.

Once the first two weeks of the season passed, the potential for the Pirates to earn a draft pick if Skenes won Rookie of the Year disappeared. Skenes, though, was still in position to gain a full year of service if he finished first or second in the voting. By early May, he had a 0.99 ERA and a 43 percent strikeout rate in seven Triple-A starts. It was time.

Skenes’ major-league performance — a 2.30 ERA and 32 percent strikeout rate — vindicated the timing of his promotion. To ruin his chances of a top-two Rookie of the Year finish, the Pirates probably would have needed to keep him in the minors until at least late June. Which would have been a disservice not only to Skenes, but also to the team and the sport.

By not waiting longer, the Pirates cost themselves in another way as well. Skenes almost certainly will earn Super Two status and qualify for an extra year of arbitration. But in the end, they had little choice. Skenes was too good to hold down. And the team, to be sure, derived certain benefits, too.

Much as Rutschman did with the Orioles in 2022, Skenes elevated the franchise, improving the perception of the Pirates both among their fans and within the sport.

Paul Skenes’ presence has energized Pirates fans since his May 11 debut. (Justin Berl / Getty Images)

Yet under the new rules, the Pirates are the baseball equivalent of “a keg tapped at both ends,” the description Ben Franklin once used for New Jersey, referring to New York in the north and Philadelphia in the south. The team will not get a draft pick for Skenes because of the care it took with him at the start of the season, and could end up with one fewer year of club control because of a vote at the end.

“I’m supportive of the rules changes that came about in the last CBA that were intended to get the best players to the major leagues,” Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said. “And of course I’m confident the league and Players Association will continue to review those going forward and work to do what is in the best interests of the game.”

Tanner Bibee can relate to Skenes’ situation. He wasn’t even in big-league camp for spring training in 2023, so he wasn’t a contender for the Guardians’ Opening Day roster. Cleveland, however, grew so desperate for starting pitching help at the end of April that it turned to him sooner than planned.

Bibee, then 24, wound up being the most productive rookie pitcher in the American League, finishing last season with a 2.98 ERA. The Guardians leaned on him and fellow rookie starters Gavin Williams and Logan Allen, but were cautious with all three, shutting down each in mid-September. With Bibee, the club cited a tweaked hip.

“Had Tanner not suffered the hip injury in September last year, he would have continued to pitch,” Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said. “Once the hip issue crept up, we didn’t think it made sense for Tanner to try to pitch through it and risk a more significant injury. We felt the right thing for his health and longevity of his career was to shut him down at that point.”

Bibee, though, would have preferred to pitch through the problem and attempt to strengthen his résumé in the Rookie of the Year race. Henderson was the runaway favorite to win the award, but Bibee knew he had a compelling case to finish second, ahead of Boston Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas and Texas Rangers third baseman Josh Jung.

Of that group, Bibee was the only one in the service-time predicament. Henderson, Casas and Jung had debuted the year before and started the 2023 season on their teams’ respective Opening Day rosters, so they were eligible to earn a full year of service no matter the voting results.

The setup, as the Bibee and Skenes examples demonstrate, potentially puts the player and his team at odds. Everyone benefits short-term from a pitcher’s peak performance, but the club can benefit significantly in the long run if the player fails to make headway with the voters. The 2023 Guardians fell out of postseason contention by the time they shut down their rookie pitchers, so there wasn’t much for the team to gain.

When asked last September if he was rooting against Bibee in the Rookie of the Year race, Antonetti said: “We always want our players to do as well as they possibly can.” Bibee admitted he was well aware of the stakes and suggested it would give him a chip on the shoulder if he finished outside the top two.

Not to worry. Bibee finished second and earned the full year of service time, pushing him one step closer to arbitration and to free agency for one of the league’s most financially stingy outfits.

No one is more deserving.

Tanner Bibee finished second for American League Rookie of the Year following a debut season that was nothing short of incredible. The future is so bright.#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/85hSVN7hZg

— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) November 13, 2023

Righty Eury Pérez endured similar treatment in Miami last summer, when the Marlins optioned him to the minors for a month in July. He had compiled a 2.34 ERA in 14 starts, and then the Marlins sent him on a midseason vacation to manage his workload. The difference was that Pérez had thrown only 77 innings in the minors the year before. He finished seventh in the NL rookie voting — and despite the Marlins’ efforts to keep him healthy, underwent Tommy John surgery in April.

Could a player and his representatives file a grievance with the union over such an issue? One starting pitcher, granted anonymity so he could speak freely on the matter, was skeptical a player would win. The CBA does not prohibit a team’s meticulous management of a pitcher’s innings.

“Those guys are pretty good at coming up with good reasons,” said the pitcher, referring to front-office executives.

The voting members of the BBWAA are another constituency grappling with the evolution of their responsibilities under the new rules.

Two writers from each AL or NL city vote on the MVP, Cy Young, Rookie and Manager of the Year awards. The BBWAA expressed concern to the league about Rookie of the Year votes being linked to service time, but ultimately decided the matter was not egregious when 30 voters would determine whether a player gains the full year.

Player contracts long have included bonuses tied to awards votes. The league, however, does not allow a single vote to trigger such incentives, removing the possibility that one compromised voter might do a player a favor, and possibly receive one in return.

The adjustment in the league’s policy stems from a matter in 2017 when the Chicago Cubs changed the language in right-hander Tyler Chatwood’s free-agent contract after the BBWAA lodged a complaint about an escalator clause in his three-year, $38 million deal. The clause would have awarded Chatwood an automatic $2 million salary boost if he received one vote for the NL Cy Young Award in 2018, and a $4 million raise in 2020 if he received one in both 2018 and ‘19.

An example of adjusted language in today’s contracts occurred in the five-year, $145 million extension left-hander Chris Sale signed with the Red Sox in March 2019. The deal included an option that would vest with a top-10 Cy Young Award finish, but only if Sale finished in the top 10 with more than one vote. (Sale’s current two-year, $38 million deal with the Braves replaced the final guaranteed year and option year in that deal).

Chris Sale finished no lower than sixth in the AL Cy Young Award voting in every season from 2012-18. (John Fisher / Getty Images)

Major League Baseball is not the only professional sport in which awards votes carry financial implications. The NBA’s annual awards are determined by a panel of 99 sports writers and broadcasters. All-NBA selections and either MVP or Defensive Player of the Year awards can make players with between four and six years of experience eligible for a maximum salary starting at 30 percent of the salary cap. Under certain conditions, those same honors can earn players with between seven and nine years of experience a boost from 30 percent of the cap to 35 percent.

“The BBWAA is proud of its awards, and we’re glad that the league and players find them meaningful,” said BBWAA president Chad Jennings, who is a writer for The Athletic. “We are completely transparent with our awards votes, every single one, because we feel history and fans deserve that. Our responsibility is to assure the integrity of the awards, and we are vigilant in that mission. It’s why we work to prevent single-ballot clauses in contracts and maintain a dialogue with the players and the league when there is a concern.”

Regarding service time, Skenes represents the next pivotal vote. And his availability the rest of the season could influence how that vote turns out.

Asked Aug. 2 about the Pirates potentially lowering pitch counts or giving him more rest between starts, Skenes said, “What they’re thinking and what I’m thinking is pretty well aligned.”

Is there a hard cap on his innings?

“I don’t know exactly what it is,” Skenes said with a shrug, “but probably.”

Later that day, Cherington said the Pirates had set no such limit for Skenes.

“Trying to nail a specific innings total, I’m certainly not smart enough for that to be anything more than arbitrary,” Cherington said. “What’s going to guide us much more is: What’s happening in games? What’s happening between games? When and if we feel — and we may — like there’s a time when this is going to help this pitcher and this team stay stronger for the totality of the next two months — by backing off a pitch count one time or giving him an extra day, whatever combination of levers it is — then we’ll do the best we can to do that.

“We’re not going to stop competing. If anybody, position player or pitcher, is in a position where there’s no clear risk to competing, well, then I’m not sure it’s up to me to play God and say he shouldn’t be competing.”

The idea of shutting down Skenes was a lot less appealing back then, when the Pirates were 2 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. The team since has lost 12 of 15 games, all but falling out of contention. Decisions loom regarding Skenes’ usage down the stretch. And the temptation for the Pirates to shut him down involves more than just his health.

(Photo: Chris Coduto / Getty Images)