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This is still a three-horse title race – the 10 reasons why Man City might drop points

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This is still a three-horse title race – the 10 reasons why Man City might drop points

It seems unlikely that north London denizen TS Eliot was an Arsenal fan, but his poetry suggests otherwise.

“April is the cruellest month,” begins The Waste Land. “I have wept and fasted, wept and prayed,” laments The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock. “This is the way the challenge ends; not with a bang but a whimper,” was probably the first draft of The Hollow Men.

Sunday was a disappointing day not just for Arsenal and Liverpool fans, but neutrals who wanted to see the three-way title battle continue. Liverpool’s 1-0 loss against Crystal Palace and Arsenal’s 2-0 defeat to Villa leaves Manchester City two points clear at the top of the league and, as frontrunners, Pep Guardiola’s side are near infallible.

“I have known it all already, known it all,” moans Eliot. But cheer up, Tommy. There is hope yet.

Here are 10 entirely realistic reasons why City could still drop points.

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This is a serious article, so let’s start seriously. Can a team do the treble twice in a row? With injuries mounting, games tripling, emotions deepening — can City rouse themselves once more?

There is a reason why a treble — or a double, for that matter — is so rare. Playing in multiple competitions does have an impact. When the margins are so tight, fatigue levels, tactical planning and mental freshness are even more crucial.

When cup competitions are straight knockout, league matches against lower-ranked opponents are naturally the games which can slip out of focus. City host Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-finals on Wednesday, play Chelsea in the FA Cup three days later, before travelling to Brighton five days on.

Guardiola has already said City are in “big, big trouble” with fatigue and injuries. So that is surely cause for hope for Liverpool and Arsenal?

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Manchester City might need a bigger trophy room (Jan Kruger/Getty Images)

The Spurs

Won two, lost five. Has Guardiola ever had a record that bad? Taking on Lionel Messi in the crossbar challenge? Credit card roulette at Manchester’s finest restaurants? Family games of Uno?

City have always struggled at Spurs. Their Premier League record in north London is poorer than any other fixture. Yes, they may have beaten them in the FA Cup this January — but that record does not include their Champions League quarter-final defeat in 2019.

Every manager’s mind has a dark room where they store their worst defeats. Guardiola’s contains a Beavertown brewery and a retractable NFL field.

Tottenham may have been overwhelmed by Newcastle, but both their meetings with City this season have been close. They still have the Champions League to chase, and they will not back down.


Guardiola tends to be dumbfounded by league trips to the Tottenham Hotspur stadium (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Is 30 goals in 37 matches really a down season? Since when did that make you, as Roy Keane suggested, a League Two player? Anyway.

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If Haaland fails to score for the rest of the season, perhaps then there is a conversation to be had. For now, City’s rivals simply have to hope the wheels come off.

Pep overcomplicates it

“I always overthink,” said Guardiola in 2022. “I always create new tactics and ideas, and tomorrow you will see a new one. I overthink a lot, that’s why I have very good results. I love it.”

“If it works I am brave, if it doesn’t work then I’m overthinking,” he added one year later. So go on — be brave.

When you already play four centre-backs, why stop there?

Play a back four of Nathan Ake, Manuel Akanji, Ruben Dias, and Josko Gvardiol. John Stones is virtually a central midfielder already. Plonk Kyle Walker (yes, he can count as a centre-back) on the right wing.

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The rest of them? Recall Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton and put him up front in the Andy Carroll role. At 6ft 5in (196cm), Finley Burns must be decent in nets. Luke Mbete can return from Den Bosch and use his left foot from the left wing. Max Alleyne, at 18, has been on the bench this season. Fancy joining Stones in the double pivot? There is already chatter about 16-year-old Stephen Mfuni’s technical quality. Stick him in at No 10.

Guardiola believes in total football. They’ll be fine. When you’ve won it all, the only way left to win is to… win better.

Forest’s newest investment finally comes good

Imagine the scenario: Nottingham Forest are battling for Premier League survival and keeping City at bay. In the 71st minute, Phil Foden finally puts them ahead. With 88 minutes gone, Chris Wood bundles Forest back into it. Bedlam.

But before the cheers die away, the whistle blows. VAR review. Suspected foul in the box. The referee walks to the monitor. The City Ground has seen this story before. But then he spots something in the crowd — and walks away.

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Amid the depths of celebration, supporters stop for one moment. What made the referee change his mind? They search for an answer — and find it.

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it’s Mark Clattenburg.

This superhero has no cape, but Forest’s referee consultant has the regulations to his front and justice at his back. Gotham City is safe from PGMOL. The Premier League table is level once more.


This is Clattenburg’s time (Mike Egerton/PA Images via Getty Images)

Rodri’s break turns into a gap year

Rodri has said he needs a break, but remember this is a player who lives the lifestyle of a university student. He lived in student accommodation. He has a degree in business administration. He drove a second-hand Opel Corsa. He is one step away from selling you £2 entry to Tuesday club nights at Pryzm.

“Spending time with young people the same as you,” he told Manchester City’s website when asked why he considered university the best time of his life. “Studying and going out sometimes. It was good… a great time.”

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But in recent months, with the intensity of the campaign — he has played 3,498 minutes for City across all competitions this season — some of this purity must have fallen away.

“I do need a rest,” he told reporters after City’s 3-3 draw with Real Madrid, with the dazed air of anyone who has attended a 9am lecture on a hangover.

One week is a brief break, sure. But why not take three months? Why not find yourself? You’re only in your twenties once. British Airways offers student discounts on flights. There’s a world out there to discover.


Rodri is knackered and needs a gap year (Oscar J. Barroso/Europa Press via Getty Images)

“Jarrod, maaaaate, how’s it going cuz?”

“Gaffer? Gaffer? Gaffer? Moyesy?”

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“Kalvin… how’s the new digs? Passport renewed?”

Declan Rice’s phone bill has never been higher.

City host West Ham on the final day. By the time it kicks off, there is little more Rice can do, except take care of his own business. The real work, therefore, starts before. West Ham have nothing to play for — it is time for that to change. Every negotiating card is on the table.

He’s sold his car to Lucas Paqueta. He is willing to withdraw from the England squad in favour of Phillips. David Sullivan has been promised his first-born son. West Ham win.

Roberto De Zerbi’s job interview to remember

This season has slightly fizzled out for Brighton & Hove Albion, who are 10th in the league and winless in four. Roberto De Zerbi, still, has been one of the most impressive managers of the past 18 months. Arguably, only Guardiola exceeds De Zerbi in pure madcap, tactical improvisation.

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In the summer, the big jobs are open. Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Barcelona.

The Athletic might have reported on Saturday that Brighton are increasingly confident of De Zerbi staying, but that comes amid a backdrop of talks over a new contract being put on the back burner and the coach has been publicly non-committal about his future.

Showing rather than telling is the first rule of job interviews — and De Zerbi has the opportunity to show his tactical acumen by outwitting Guardiola.

City initially deal with Brighton’s pioneering use of an overlapping sweeper and a pressing pattern based on the Fibonacci sequence, but are flummoxed by the inspired introduction of Jason Steele as an inverted trequartista.


There is no outwitting De Zerbi (Mike Morese/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Gary O’Neil’s luck turns

Gary O’Neil seems an unlikely contender to be on MTV’s Welcome To My Crib, but let’s imagine for a moment that he opens up the doors to his Wolverhampton mansion.

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The doormat is a four-leaf clover. As you enter, seven lucky cats wave their hellos. Rabbits’ feet hang from the kitchen beams. Mirrors are banned, O’Neil tells you, demonstrating how he brushes his teeth in the reflection from the bathroom window.

There is an almost overwhelming smell of incense.

No team has been unluckier than Wolves this season. O’Neil has tried reason, he has tried rationalisation. He’s tried avoiding ladders. All that’s left is faith… and Nathan Fraser.

Foden hits the bar. Jeremy Doku trips over his laces. A wild swipe from Max Kilman deflects in off Hwang Hee-chan’s bum. Molineux erupts.

City’s 115 charges reach a sudden conclusion

The metaphorical gavel falls. White smoke emanates from the ceiling of Premier League HQ. This day was thought to be months down the line — but a decision has been made.

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City face 115 charges of breaching the Premier League’s financial rules across nine different seasons. If they are found guilty of at least some of them, points deductions are a realistic outcome.

Of course, City will say this is impossible, the most ridiculous suggestion on this list. After all, they vehemently deny the charges and are working hard to prove their innocence.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

The Briefing: Arsenal and Liverpool must show title race isn’t over, it’s only two points

(Top photos: Getty Images)

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Patriots crush Chargers in Wild Card defensive slugfest, secure first playoff win since 2018

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Patriots crush Chargers in Wild Card defensive slugfest, secure first playoff win since 2018

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The New England Patriots defended home turf in the Wild Card Round, dominating the Los Angeles Chargers in a 16-3 victory to move on in the NFL Playoffs.

New England, winning its first playoff game since their 2018 Super Bowl-winning campaign, will await the victor of the No. 4 Houston Texans and No. 5 Pittsburgh Steelers Wild Card game on Monday night to see who they face in the Divisional Round next week.

This game saw its first touchdown in the fourth quarter, but that was because of how suffocating both defenses were in this contest. But it was clear the Patriots had every answer for Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ offense.

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Drake Maye of the New England Patriots celebrates after a touchdown in the third quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium on January 04, 2026 in Foxborough, Massachusetts.  (Winslow Townson/Getty Images)

Mike Vrabel’s squad shouldn’t have given up only three points, especially after Drake Maye was picked off on the Patriots’ second drive at his own 10-yard line. However, the Patriots’ defense was relentless all night, and the Chargers couldn’t adjust.

They stopped the Chargers on four plays to turn them over on downs, and ultimately got on the board first thanks to a 93-yard drive that resulted in a field goal.

49ERS ELMINATE DEFENDING SUPER BOWL CHAMPION EAGLES FROM PLAYOFFS

Los Angeles was knocking at the door again with a third-and-2 from New England’s three-yard line, but Kimani Vidal was stuffed. Cameron Dicker added a field goal to tie the game, and only another Patriots field goal was added to the score before halftime, a 6-3 lead for New England.

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While the Chargers couldn’t get anything going on offense, their defense kept them in this game, at least for the first three quarters. Maye was strip-sacked by Odafe Oweh while in Chargers territory to keep it a three-point game in the third quarter.

But after another failed drive, a third Patriots field goal split the uprights to make it 9-3.

Stefon Diggs of the New England Patriots talks to teammates in a huddle prior to an AFC wild card playoff football game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Gillette Stadium on Jan. 11, 2026 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)

The dagger for the Patriots came after yet another Chargers punt, when Maye placed his pass perfectly for tight end Hunter Henry, the ex-Chargers star, for a 28-yard touchdown. The first six-pointer for either team seemingly ended all hopes for Los Angeles.

On the ensuing drive, Herbert was crushed by K’Lavon Chaisson, resulting in a fumble recovered by Christian Elliss, as the Gillette Stadium crowd went ballistic.

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The Chargers tried to get some playoff heroics going, as they dinked and dunked their way down the field into Patriots territory. But on fourth-and-9 from New England’s 34-yard line, Milton Williams ended all hope when he delivered the Patriots’ sixth sack on Herbert to turn them over on downs again. 

In the box score, Maye went 17-of-29 through the air for 268 yards, with running back Rhamondre Stevenson being his top receiver with 75 yards on three catches. Kayshon Boutte also added 66 yards on four grabs, while Henry finished with 64 yards.

Drake Maye of the New England Patriots looks to pass prior to an NFL wild card playoff game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Gillette Stadium on Jan. 11, 2026 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)

And Maye was also the Patriots’ leading rusher with 67 yards on the ground on nine carries, as he continuously picked his spots to gash the Chargers’ defense.

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For Los Angeles, Herbert’s playoff woes continue, as he’s now 0-3 after this performance. He had just 159 yards passing and 57 yards rushing.

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It’s another one-and-done postseason for Justin Herbert and Chargers

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It’s another one-and-done postseason for Justin Herbert and Chargers

The MVP chants for the second-year quarterback of the New England Patriots rang throughout Gillette Stadium on Sunday night.

The Chargers, meanwhile, were haunted by their own echoes.

Another playoff game. Another one-and-done exit.

The gutty season of quarterback Justin Herbert again ended with a whimper, a 16-3 loss on a night when the Chargers defense provided ample opportunities.

“We have to do better than three points,” Herbert said. “As an offense, that’s not good enough. The quarterback play wasn’t good enough, and we let the defense down today.”

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Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is sacked by New England Patriots linebacker Anfernee Jennings in the fourth quarter Sunday.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

Three years ago was the nuclear meltdown at Jacksonville, when the Chargers blew a 27-0 lead to lose, 31-30.

Last year, the first under coach Jim Harbaugh, Herbert was picked off four times at Houston after making it through the regular season with just three interceptions.

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Now, the Chargers have all offseason to ponder the fiasco at Foxborough, when they generated one field goal, 207 yards and converted one of 10 third downs.

The cover-your-eyes postseason scorecard under Harbaugh: Two games, 15 points on three field goals, one touchdown and a failed conversion.

Asked after the New England loss if the impending offseason changes could include changing out offensive coordinator Greg Roman, Harbaugh was notably noncommittal.

“Right now I don’t have the answers,” Harbaugh said. “We’re going to look at that.”

The juxtaposition between the Chargers and Patriots is stark. The Chargers are precisely where they were a year ago, groping for answers about how to win a postseason game.

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The Patriots won just four games last season but bumped that to 14 this year — one of three teams in NFL history to improve by at least 10 games in 12 months — and now advance to play host to Monday night’s winner between Houston and Pittsburgh.

As good as Herbert was all season — particularly playing behind a patchwork offensive line and with a broken left hand — he seemed lost in space Sunday, unable to connect with his receivers or establish anything close to an offensive rhythm.

Former Chargers tight end Hunter Henry catches a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter for the Patriots.

Former Chargers tight end Hunter Henry catches a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter for the Patriots. It was the game’s only touchdown.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

He threw for 120 yards and oversaw an offense whose possessions ended thusly: punt, turnover on downs, field goal, punt, end of half, punt, punt, punt, fumble, turnover on downs.

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It’s not as if the Patriots were much better. The Chargers largely shut them down on offense, but New England was able to cobble together three field goals and a touchdown by tight end Hunter Henry, who, in a tormenting twist, began his career with the Chargers.

But Patriots quarterback Drake Maye was more calm and in command than Herbert despite two fumbles (one lost) and an interception on a pass that was batted at the line of scrimmage.

“Credit to Drake Maye,” Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. said. “Every time we got to him, he got back up. Every time his team needed a play today, he used his legs.”

In fact, the quarterbacks were the leading rushers, with Maye running for 66 yards and Herbert 57. The Patriots got 53 more from Rhamondre Stevenson, whereas the Chargers couldn’t mount anything of a true running game.

When teams win, they spend the offseason trying to keep their rosters together. When they lose, it’s back to the drawing board. The Chargers are in the latter category.

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In a locker room so quiet you could hear a dream drop, linebacker Daiyan Henley said Harbaugh thanked his players after the game.

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is slow to get up after being sacked in the fourth quarter against the Patriots.

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is slow to get up after being sacked in the fourth quarter against the Patriots on Sunday.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

“There was a lot of confidence going into this game,” Henley said. “I think the feeling and vibe you’re getting in this locker room right now is that it’s over and that this team is going to change. Everybody is aware that our defense is going to surely change.

“When you have a core group of guys like this, everybody holds a lot of pride in what we do. So to know that we lost and the season is over and this locker room is going to change — and upstairs may change — it hurts more.”

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Henley said Harbaugh thanked his players after the game, especially for the way they fought all season despite the various hurdles in their path.

“It sucks because this is how the season ends, so when you talk about processing a loss like this, the process lasts longer,” Henley said.

“You go out on a loss, I’ll be thinking about it until I can go out and get my next win.”

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Packers’ head-coaching situation thrust into spotlight after playoff loss

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Packers’ head-coaching situation thrust into spotlight after playoff loss

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The Green Bay Packers’ playoff exit on Saturday immediately put added focus on what the organization will do with head coach Matt LaFleur.

The NFL coaching cycle has been the wildest in recent memory, with veteran coaches like John Harbaugh and Pete Carroll being shown the door. Packers fans seemingly put LaFleur on the hot seat following their crushing defeat to the Chicago Bears.

Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur reacts during the wild-card playoff game against the Bears Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)

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ESPN’s Adam Schefter said Sunday that the Packers will have a major decision to make.

“The Green Bay Packers and their new president, Ed Policy, have a significant decision to make here in the coming days – and that is whether to extend Matt LaFleur’s contract. He’s currently got one year remaining, or to move on from him,” Schefter said. “If they moved on from him, he would automatically go near the top of coaches available and shakeup this current head-coaching cycle yet again.”

Schefter added that Harbaugh could be one of the names that would interest the Packers’ organization.

BEARS’ BEN JOHNSON GIVES FIERY MESSAGE TO TEAM AFTER PLAYOFF WIN: ‘F— THE PACKERS!’

Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur talks after the playoff game, Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)

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“Notice how we said this belongs to the Packers’ president, Ed Policy. Well, the Packers’ former president from the back in the day was a man by the name of Bob Harlan,” Schefter explained. “Bob Harlan’s son, Brian Harlan, represents John Harbaugh. John Harbaugh is a Midwestern guy, who has a home in the Upper Peninsula, and a lot of people around the league have been wondering if the Packers decide to go in a different direction, if all of a sudden the Green Bay Packers might fall to the top of John Harbaugh’s list as the top available choice for him.

“This has been a wild, crazy coaching cycle, and we may be just scratching the surface.”

Green Bay Packers’ Matthew Golden celebrates his touchdown against the Bears Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)

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Green Bay finished 9-7-1 this season. LaFleur is 76-40-1 as the Packers’ head coach with a 3-6 record in the playoffs.

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