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This is still a three-horse title race – the 10 reasons why Man City might drop points

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This is still a three-horse title race – the 10 reasons why Man City might drop points

It seems unlikely that north London denizen TS Eliot was an Arsenal fan, but his poetry suggests otherwise.

“April is the cruellest month,” begins The Waste Land. “I have wept and fasted, wept and prayed,” laments The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock. “This is the way the challenge ends; not with a bang but a whimper,” was probably the first draft of The Hollow Men.

Sunday was a disappointing day not just for Arsenal and Liverpool fans, but neutrals who wanted to see the three-way title battle continue. Liverpool’s 1-0 loss against Crystal Palace and Arsenal’s 2-0 defeat to Villa leaves Manchester City two points clear at the top of the league and, as frontrunners, Pep Guardiola’s side are near infallible.

“I have known it all already, known it all,” moans Eliot. But cheer up, Tommy. There is hope yet.

Here are 10 entirely realistic reasons why City could still drop points.

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This is a serious article, so let’s start seriously. Can a team do the treble twice in a row? With injuries mounting, games tripling, emotions deepening — can City rouse themselves once more?

There is a reason why a treble — or a double, for that matter — is so rare. Playing in multiple competitions does have an impact. When the margins are so tight, fatigue levels, tactical planning and mental freshness are even more crucial.

When cup competitions are straight knockout, league matches against lower-ranked opponents are naturally the games which can slip out of focus. City host Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-finals on Wednesday, play Chelsea in the FA Cup three days later, before travelling to Brighton five days on.

Guardiola has already said City are in “big, big trouble” with fatigue and injuries. So that is surely cause for hope for Liverpool and Arsenal?

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Manchester City might need a bigger trophy room (Jan Kruger/Getty Images)

The Spurs

Won two, lost five. Has Guardiola ever had a record that bad? Taking on Lionel Messi in the crossbar challenge? Credit card roulette at Manchester’s finest restaurants? Family games of Uno?

City have always struggled at Spurs. Their Premier League record in north London is poorer than any other fixture. Yes, they may have beaten them in the FA Cup this January — but that record does not include their Champions League quarter-final defeat in 2019.

Every manager’s mind has a dark room where they store their worst defeats. Guardiola’s contains a Beavertown brewery and a retractable NFL field.

Tottenham may have been overwhelmed by Newcastle, but both their meetings with City this season have been close. They still have the Champions League to chase, and they will not back down.


Guardiola tends to be dumbfounded by league trips to the Tottenham Hotspur stadium (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Is 30 goals in 37 matches really a down season? Since when did that make you, as Roy Keane suggested, a League Two player? Anyway.

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If Haaland fails to score for the rest of the season, perhaps then there is a conversation to be had. For now, City’s rivals simply have to hope the wheels come off.

Pep overcomplicates it

“I always overthink,” said Guardiola in 2022. “I always create new tactics and ideas, and tomorrow you will see a new one. I overthink a lot, that’s why I have very good results. I love it.”

“If it works I am brave, if it doesn’t work then I’m overthinking,” he added one year later. So go on — be brave.

When you already play four centre-backs, why stop there?

Play a back four of Nathan Ake, Manuel Akanji, Ruben Dias, and Josko Gvardiol. John Stones is virtually a central midfielder already. Plonk Kyle Walker (yes, he can count as a centre-back) on the right wing.

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The rest of them? Recall Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton and put him up front in the Andy Carroll role. At 6ft 5in (196cm), Finley Burns must be decent in nets. Luke Mbete can return from Den Bosch and use his left foot from the left wing. Max Alleyne, at 18, has been on the bench this season. Fancy joining Stones in the double pivot? There is already chatter about 16-year-old Stephen Mfuni’s technical quality. Stick him in at No 10.

Guardiola believes in total football. They’ll be fine. When you’ve won it all, the only way left to win is to… win better.

Forest’s newest investment finally comes good

Imagine the scenario: Nottingham Forest are battling for Premier League survival and keeping City at bay. In the 71st minute, Phil Foden finally puts them ahead. With 88 minutes gone, Chris Wood bundles Forest back into it. Bedlam.

But before the cheers die away, the whistle blows. VAR review. Suspected foul in the box. The referee walks to the monitor. The City Ground has seen this story before. But then he spots something in the crowd — and walks away.

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Amid the depths of celebration, supporters stop for one moment. What made the referee change his mind? They search for an answer — and find it.

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it’s Mark Clattenburg.

This superhero has no cape, but Forest’s referee consultant has the regulations to his front and justice at his back. Gotham City is safe from PGMOL. The Premier League table is level once more.


This is Clattenburg’s time (Mike Egerton/PA Images via Getty Images)

Rodri’s break turns into a gap year

Rodri has said he needs a break, but remember this is a player who lives the lifestyle of a university student. He lived in student accommodation. He has a degree in business administration. He drove a second-hand Opel Corsa. He is one step away from selling you £2 entry to Tuesday club nights at Pryzm.

“Spending time with young people the same as you,” he told Manchester City’s website when asked why he considered university the best time of his life. “Studying and going out sometimes. It was good… a great time.”

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But in recent months, with the intensity of the campaign — he has played 3,498 minutes for City across all competitions this season — some of this purity must have fallen away.

“I do need a rest,” he told reporters after City’s 3-3 draw with Real Madrid, with the dazed air of anyone who has attended a 9am lecture on a hangover.

One week is a brief break, sure. But why not take three months? Why not find yourself? You’re only in your twenties once. British Airways offers student discounts on flights. There’s a world out there to discover.


Rodri is knackered and needs a gap year (Oscar J. Barroso/Europa Press via Getty Images)

“Jarrod, maaaaate, how’s it going cuz?”

“Gaffer? Gaffer? Gaffer? Moyesy?”

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“Kalvin… how’s the new digs? Passport renewed?”

Declan Rice’s phone bill has never been higher.

City host West Ham on the final day. By the time it kicks off, there is little more Rice can do, except take care of his own business. The real work, therefore, starts before. West Ham have nothing to play for — it is time for that to change. Every negotiating card is on the table.

He’s sold his car to Lucas Paqueta. He is willing to withdraw from the England squad in favour of Phillips. David Sullivan has been promised his first-born son. West Ham win.

Roberto De Zerbi’s job interview to remember

This season has slightly fizzled out for Brighton & Hove Albion, who are 10th in the league and winless in four. Roberto De Zerbi, still, has been one of the most impressive managers of the past 18 months. Arguably, only Guardiola exceeds De Zerbi in pure madcap, tactical improvisation.

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In the summer, the big jobs are open. Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Barcelona.

The Athletic might have reported on Saturday that Brighton are increasingly confident of De Zerbi staying, but that comes amid a backdrop of talks over a new contract being put on the back burner and the coach has been publicly non-committal about his future.

Showing rather than telling is the first rule of job interviews — and De Zerbi has the opportunity to show his tactical acumen by outwitting Guardiola.

City initially deal with Brighton’s pioneering use of an overlapping sweeper and a pressing pattern based on the Fibonacci sequence, but are flummoxed by the inspired introduction of Jason Steele as an inverted trequartista.


There is no outwitting De Zerbi (Mike Morese/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Gary O’Neil’s luck turns

Gary O’Neil seems an unlikely contender to be on MTV’s Welcome To My Crib, but let’s imagine for a moment that he opens up the doors to his Wolverhampton mansion.

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The doormat is a four-leaf clover. As you enter, seven lucky cats wave their hellos. Rabbits’ feet hang from the kitchen beams. Mirrors are banned, O’Neil tells you, demonstrating how he brushes his teeth in the reflection from the bathroom window.

There is an almost overwhelming smell of incense.

No team has been unluckier than Wolves this season. O’Neil has tried reason, he has tried rationalisation. He’s tried avoiding ladders. All that’s left is faith… and Nathan Fraser.

Foden hits the bar. Jeremy Doku trips over his laces. A wild swipe from Max Kilman deflects in off Hwang Hee-chan’s bum. Molineux erupts.

City’s 115 charges reach a sudden conclusion

The metaphorical gavel falls. White smoke emanates from the ceiling of Premier League HQ. This day was thought to be months down the line — but a decision has been made.

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City face 115 charges of breaching the Premier League’s financial rules across nine different seasons. If they are found guilty of at least some of them, points deductions are a realistic outcome.

Of course, City will say this is impossible, the most ridiculous suggestion on this list. After all, they vehemently deny the charges and are working hard to prove their innocence.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

The Briefing: Arsenal and Liverpool must show title race isn’t over, it’s only two points

(Top photos: Getty Images)

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MLB pitcher Merrill Kelly says California tax rate swayed decision to reject Padres’ free agency offer

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MLB pitcher Merrill Kelly says California tax rate swayed decision to reject Padres’ free agency offer

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Merrill Kelly will once again be wearing an Arizona Diamondbacks uniform when the 2026 regular season gets underway. 

Kelly, who entered the free agent market after pitching in 10 games with the Texas Rangers in 2025, agreed to a deal to return to the Diamondbacks.

Kelly spent the first seven years of his professional career with the Diamondbacks but revealed that he received an offer from the San Diego Padres this offseason. Kelly said his decision to turn down the Padres during free agency centered on California’s higher income tax rate compared to Arizona’s.

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Merrill Kelly (23) of the Texas Rangers pitches during a game against the Miami Marlins at Globe Life Field on Sept. 21, 2025 in Arlington, Texas. (Gunnar Word/Texas Rangers/Getty Images)

Kelly agreed to a two-year contract worth an estimated $40 million with the Diamondbacks, according to ESPN. Although the Padres offered a comparable deal at three years instead of two, California’s 13% tax rate on income above $1 million proved a key difference.

“I don’t think it’s any secret on how much money you get taken out of your pocket when you go to California,” the right-hander told “Foul Territory.”

Kelly also has deep ties to Arizona, where he attended high school and played college baseball at Arizona State. He said finding a way back to Arizona “was always the priority.”

Merrill Kelly (29) of the Arizona Diamondbacks looks on before Game Six of the Championship Series against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Oct. 23, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

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While Kelly said he is fond of San Diego, he was unwilling to sacrifice a significant portion of his salary to taxes. “I love San Diego,” Kelly said. “It’s just, like I said, they take too much money out of my pocket, man. The taxes over there are a different level.

“We had my numbers guy run the numbers, and it just made more sense to come home.”

Merrill Kelly (23) of the Texas Rangers looks on during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Globe Life Field on Aug. 8, 2025 in Arlington, Texas. (Bailey Orr/Texas Rangers/Getty Images)

Arizona’s state income tax rate is roughly 2.5%. Kelly also joked that he prefers the desert landscape to San Diego’s coastal setting.

“It worked out best for us because that was honestly our second choice,” Kelly said. “It was between here and San Diego going into the offseason. San Diego was really the only place that, if we did go somewhere, that was probably high on our list if we weren’t in Arizona. It’s like, ‘All right, let’s just hop over and take a short, six-hour drive to San Diego.’

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“But, yeah, the desert is home. I guess we’re not ocean people.”

In a statement to The California Post, the Padres said the team does “not comment on contract negotiations.”

Acquired by the Rangers in July 2025, Kelly went 12-9 while splitting the season between Texas and Arizona.

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Prep talk: Councilmember looking into helping fix fire damage at Encino Franklin Fields

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Prep talk: Councilmember looking into helping fix fire damage at Encino Franklin Fields

The office of Los Angeles City Councilmember Imelda Padilla has begun working with agencies to find a solution to repair infrastructure damage caused by a fire last month that went through a tunnel at Encino Franklin Fields and has limited access to three softball fields used by youth organizations and the high school teams at Harvard-Westlake, Louisville and Sherman Oaks Notre Dame.

The fire on Jan. 22, believed to have been set by a homeless person, took out wooden framing below an asphalt bridge connecting access to a parking lot, making it unusable for safety reasons. Parents have since paid for a temporary scaffold bridge that allows people to traverse the condemned bridge. The parking lot remains out of commission along with handicap access. Notre Dame has not practiced or played games there since, moving to Valley College. Harvard-Westlake and Louisville have resumed practices and games.

The land is owned by the Army Corps of Engineers. The bridge spans a culvert, maintained by the city. The fields are leased.

A spokeswoman for Padilla said in a statement: “Our team has taken the lead in convening City departments and have engaged the Mayor’s Office to help accelerate coordination and solutions. While agencies work through jurisdictional and cost responsibilities, our priority is preventing unnecessary delays and advancing immediate solutions. As damage and improvement needs are evaluated, we are focused on restoring safe access, including exploring a secondary access point to improve parking safety and ADA accessibility for families and field users. Student athletes and families should not bear the burden of administrative complexity, and we are pushing for a coordinated path forward that prioritizes timely repairs and safe access.”

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This is a daily look at the positive happenings in high school sports. To submit any news, please email eric.sondheimer@latimes.com.

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USA Rugby to introduce ‘open’ gender category for trans athletes

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USA Rugby to introduce ‘open’ gender category for trans athletes

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USA Rugby, the nation’s governing body for the sport of rugby, announced Friday it will be introducing a new “open” gender division to accommodate trans athletes.

The new rule comes more than a year after President Donald Trump’s “Keeping Men Out of Women’s Sports” executive order and nearly seven months after the U.S. Olympic & Paralympic Committee’s (USOPC) new requirement for all governing bodies to comply with it.

“USA Rugby will now have three competition categories; Men’s Division, Women’s Division and Open Division. The Open Division will permit any athlete, regardless of gender assigned at birth and gender identity, to compete in USA Rugby-sanctioned events, whether full contact or non-contact,” the organization said in a statement. 

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Cassidy Bargell of the United States passes the ball during a women’s rugby World Cup 2025 match against Samoa at LNER Community Stadium in Monks Cross, York, Sept. 6, 2025. (Michael Driver/MI News/NurPhoto)

The organization’s policy also seemingly allows any hopeful competitors to simply select their gender when registering, with potential vetting by officials.

“Division status will be determined during the membership application and registration process, when an athlete selects the ‘gender’ option in Rugby Xplorer. When applying for membership or registering as ‘Female’ or registering for an event in the Women’s Division, an athlete represents and warrants to USA Rugby that they are Female.”

“This representation creates a rebuttable presumption that the individual’s sex identified at birth was female,” the organization’s member policy states. 

Gabriella Cantorna, Ilona Maher and Emily Henrich of the U.S. before a women’s rugby World Cup 2025 match against Samoa at York Community Stadium Sept. 6, 2025, in York, England.  (Molly Darlington/World Rugby/World Rugby via Getty Images)

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“The determination of whether an individual is Female may be established through records from authoritative sources. Only USA Rugby shall have the right to contest the individual’s Women’s Division status or challenge the presumption of an athlete registered as ‘Female.’”

In July, the USOPC updated its athlete safety policy to indicate compliance with Trump’s “Keeping Men Out of Women’s Sports” executive order. 

However, Trump has also pushed for mandatory genetic testing of athletes to protect the women’s category at the upcoming 2028 Los Angeles Olympics amid concerns over forged birth certificates allowing biological males to gain access to women’s sports.

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The USA Rugby goal line flag before a match between the United States and Scotland at Audi Field July 12, 2024, in Washington, D.C. (Scott Taetsch/Getty Images for Scottish Rugby)

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USOPC Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Finnoff said at the USOPC media summit in October the SRY gene tests being used by World Athletics and World Boxing are “not common” in the U.S. but suggested the USOPC is exploring options to employ sex testing options for its own teams and that he expects other world governing bodies to “follow suit.” 

“It’s not necessarily very common to get this specific test in the United States, and, so, our goal in that was helping to identify labs and options for the athletes to be able to get that testing. And (it was) based on that experience and knowing that some other international federations likely will be following suit,” Finnoff said. 

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