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Ranking upset chances for College Football Playoff underdogs: Will any road team win?

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Ranking upset chances for College Football Playoff underdogs: Will any road team win?

As underdog hunters, we have been excited to watch college football’s championship morph into a playoff system, because with seeds come officially designated Davids and Goliaths, and with brackets come chances for meaningful upsets.

Well, that was our theory, anyway. The way this inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff has panned out, Boise State and Arizona State — entertaining squads who were conference champions but are by no stretch statistically dominant teams — grabbed the No. 3 and 4 seeds and the byes that go with them. And the fifth through 12th playoff contestants are now lined up pretty accurately. In each of this weekend’s first-round matchups, sportsbooks are favoring the home teams by more than a touchdown, and we can understand why.

But we can still help you hunt for value in the CFP’s opening round.

From NCAA basketball to the Olympics to the NFL, we have found that playoff underdogs tend to have three traits in common: They are underrated, they play high-risk/high-reward styles and they’ve suffered from bad luck.

So, this is how we studied the first round of the CFP: We looked at the power ratings of every team according to four systems, all of which essentially adjust the components of wins and losses (such as scoring) for strength of schedule: ESPN’s SP+ rankings, the Massey Ratings, the Simple Rating System and Team Rankings’ Predictive Ratings. We calculated the gaps between each set of opponents and then applied our bracket-breaking criteria. These are the results, with games listed in order of their upset chances.

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No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State

Upset chance: 33.4 percent

While betting lines have made SMU a +260 underdog in this contest, implying a 27.8 percent chance of a win, we think the Mustangs have a one-in-three chance (33.4 percent) of pulling off an upset.

For one, we’ve put together a Variability Index that measures how widely a team’s performance, adjusted for opponents, swings from week to week. The Mustangs rank 105th in the FBS this year, meaning they have been highly inconsistent. That’s good for an underdog: the better you are at your best, the greater your chances of beating a superior foe (and in a win-or-go-home scenario, nobody really cares how bad you are at your worst).

It’s doubly good in this case because the main reason SMU’s strength has changed considerably from game to game is that the Mustangs kept improving. Predicted to finish seventh in their first season in the ACC, they instead clobbered their conference opponents by increasing margins from the beginning of October through the end of November.

Led by Kevin Jennings, a quarterback who’s both efficient (66 percent completion percentage, 8.9 yards per attempt) and mobile (29.2 rushing yards per game), SMU’s up-tempo offense has racked up 501 points this season, sixth-most in the country. The Mustangs’ defense is more uneven. Their outstanding front four smothers the run and gets to opposing QBs: SMU allows just 2.7 yards per rush and has totaled 40 sacks; both of those figures are third-best in the FBS. But while the Mustangs have three safeties whose Pro Football Focus coverage grades rank among the top 30 in the country, SMU has given up a whopping 3,025 passing yards (ranking 111th). Buy the Mustangs, and you’re betting their pass rush will boom before their zone defense goes bust — and so far, that’s been a good wager.

SMU is also better than the result of its last game, a loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. A sack, fumble return and penalty on a punt landed the Mustangs down by 14 before the game was five minutes old. Then they clawed all the way back, only for Clemson to beat them, 34-31, on a last-second 56-yard field goal. Chances are the Mustangs won’t dig themselves into that deep a hole again — another reason their odds against Abdul Carter & Co. are better than they look.

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No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame

Upset chance: 27.9 percent

Subjectively, the Hoosiers, who are likely the best team in the 125-year history of Indiana football, make a heck of an underdog. And we’ve sung the praises of their coach, their quarterbacks and their receivers. But they’re +230 at BetMGM, and we see that as a bit generous: It implies upset chances of 30.3 percent vs. odds we calculate at 27.9 percent.

Statistically, we have to ask how much air needs to be let out of the Hoosiers’ tires because of their mediocre schedule. And while we can’t precisely quantify the answer yet, it’s some version of a lot.” They’ve had a single game against a top-25 opponent all season — and Ohio State outgained Indiana by more than two-to-one, with Kurtis Rourke passing for just 68 yards en route to a 38-15 thrashing.

The Hoosiers aren’t simply an offensive juggernaut: They’ve allowed only 14.7 points per game (sixth in the FBS) while surrendering just 5.7 yards per passing attempt and a total of 10 passing touchdowns. But Notre Dame has given up a mere 13.6 points per game (ranking third), stifling opponents to 5.6 yards per attempt and nine passing TDs.

Bettors have taken a long time to appreciate Indiana, which has gone 9-3 against the spread this year, similar to the Fighting Irish, who are 9-2-1 ATS. The Hoosiers have been slightly lucky at converting points to wins, and Notre Dame has been slightly unlucky (as in two-points-away-from-being-undefeated unlucky).

One signal does favor the Hoosiers: Through December 16, 56 percent of the bets and 63 percent of the money wagered on this game have been on Indiana, according to the Action Network. But we can’t find much to trump the statistical evidence that there’s a difference of a bit more than a touchdown between these teams.

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No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State

Upset chance: 25 percent

Advanced ranking systems suggest there is a much larger gap in this game than a one-seed difference would imply. That’s particularly true in the Simple Rating System (SRS) ratings, which place the Buckeyes as the best of the eight teams playing first-round games and the Volunteers the worst. The three other systems are more generous to Tennessee, but our synergistic model still only gives the Vols a 25 percent chance of winning, compared to an implied 29.4 percent offered by the +240 moneyline at BetMGM.

However, there are reasons to believe the metrics are undervaluing Tennessee. That’s mostly due to the Vols’ defense. According to Sharp Football’s “Defensive Beta_Rank” advanced stats, Tennessee has the country’s eighth-best defense. The Vols only allowed two teams to score more than 19 points all season: Georgia (31) and Vanderbilt (23, seven of which came from a kickoff return on the opening play). They held Alabama to 17 points in a victory in October, and the Crimson Tide happen to rank ninth in Sharp’s offensive ratings, one spot ahead of Ohio State.

It’s also worth noting that Ohio State’s offense has sputtered at times against strong defenses. The Buckeyes only scored 20 points against Penn State’s 14th-ranked unit and infamously put up only 10 points against Michigan’s 19th-ranked defense. Of course, Ohio State scored 30-plus against top-25 defenses from Indiana (seventh), Oregon (17th) and Iowa (22nd). So the Buckeyes certainly have explosive potential.

But this game has all the ingredients for a tight, physical, conservative battle. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 20s in Columbus Saturday night. Ohio State’s defense is even better than Tennessee’s (No. 2 in Sharp’s ratings). This matchup has the lowest total (46.5) of any first-round game, which means there’s more of a chance for a pesky underdog to hang around. Tennessee has been consistent (30th in our variability rankings) and right in the middle of the pack in luck ratings, so even if that doesn’t ultimately lead to a Tennessee outright win, that game script could favor the Vols +7.5, as well as the under.

No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas

Upset chance: 22.8 percent

You know, those folks in Vegas might have a pretty good idea of what they’re doing. Clemson is +325 on the moneyline, which means its implied odds to win are 23.5 percent. That aligns with the chance our composite model gives the Tigers (22.8 percent).

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Unfortunately for the Tigers, neither their underdog traits nor Texas’ profile as a favorite does much to shift those odds. Clemson ranks in the mid-50s in the FBS in both variability and luck, so they haven’t really underperformed or shown a massive ceiling this season. And Texas is exactly what you want to see in a safe favorite: Not only are the Longhorns extremely consistent (seventh in the country in lowest variability), but they’ve also been unfortunate (82nd in luck). So they may be even better than their record indicates.

But instead of ending on some misbegotten crack about how Syracuse would make a more entertaining ACC entrant in the CFP than Clemson, let’s use this game to consider a truly amazing probability. If Texas gets by Clemson, we estimate there’s about an 85 percent chance the Longhorns would then defeat Arizona State. Which means the odds that Texas will make the semifinal of the Playoff are about two in three.

Now ask yourself: Does Oregon have a 65 percent chance to beat Ohio State?

The biggest lesson from how the CFP matchups are shaking out is that Texas’ No. 5 slot is the sweetest spot in the field. Even with the Ducks holding a bye in their beaks, at this moment, you’d rather be Texas than Oregon.

(Illustration by Will Tullos; photo of Kevin Jennings: Grant Halverson / Getty Images; photo of Kurtis Rourke: James Black / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; photo of Dylan Sampson: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)

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Bengals team flight delayed more than 5 hours ahead of AFC North battle vs Ravens

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Bengals team flight delayed more than 5 hours ahead of AFC North battle vs Ravens

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The Cincinnati Bengals didn’t have a great start to their Thanksgiving Day.

The team’s flight on Wednesday night from Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport was scheduled for 5 p.m. ET, but they weren’t able to get into the air for their trip to Baltimore until 10:32 p.m. ET, according to FlightAware.

As a result, the Bengals, who play their AFC North rival Ravens on Thanksgiving night, didn’t get to their hotel until after midnight.

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Ja’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals looks on prior to an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Paycor Stadium on Oct. 16, 2025, in Cincinnati. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)

The team was supposed to land in Baltimore at 6:19 p.m. ET, but they technically landed on Thanksgiving, arriving at Baltimore/Washington International Airport at 12:03 a.m.

WLWT in Cincinnati also reported the Bengals had to switch planes, though there was no word on why they were forced to change.

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It wasn’t an ideal situation for the Bengals; however, it could’ve been worse if the flight had been delayed any later. If the game were played earlier in the day, it certainly would have been more of an issue.

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The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions had the first game on Thanksgiving Day, while the Dallas Cowboys hosted the Kansas City Chiefs for the 4:25 p.m. ET start.

While the Bengals are 3-8, this is a massive game for the franchise as they welcome back starting quarterback Joe Burrow, who recovered from toe surgery after an injury in Week 2 this season.

Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals looks to pass during the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Paycor Stadium on Sept. 14, 2025, in Cincinnati. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Burrow didn’t play this past Sunday despite being a full practice participant, but head coach Zac Taylor made the call with the short week ahead and the Thursday night matchup in mind.

Cincinnati has lost its last four games. However, Burrow hasn’t lost a game since December 2024, going 7-0 in his last seven starts.

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Burrow also had qualms about playing the Ravens for the fourth straight year in prime time on the road.

“Maybe we can get one of those in Cincinnati next year, please,” Burrow said back in May.

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Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are winners of their last five games after starting the season 1-5 in shocking fashion. They share the AFC North lead with the Pittsburgh Steelers, making this another crucial game for the franchise’s playoff hopes.

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Will Jayden Maiava and Husan Longstreet remain USC’s top quarterbacks?

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Will Jayden Maiava and Husan Longstreet remain USC’s top quarterbacks?

During each of his last two Decembers at USC, Lincoln Riley faced a critical decision at quarterback: Pursue a new passer in the portal or trust the one who’s next in line?

In each case, Riley has opted to keep the known quantity. But as his fourth regular season at USC comes to a close Saturday against UCLA, the coach could face a more complicated conundrum at the position this offseason.

Run it back with Jayden Maiava, who statistically has been one of the more accomplished passers in college football this season? Or turn the page to electric five-star freshman Husan Longstreet, who might not be willing to wait much longer for his shot as USC’s starting quarterback?

It’s a question that has confounded many college football coaches during the transfer portal era, as the notion of a top quarterback prospect patiently waiting his turn to be named a starter has become increasingly rare. Of the top dozen quarterbacks in the class of 2024, six have already transferred. From 2023, it’s seven of the top 12. From 2022, it’s eight. And of those who do stay, only a handful were still waiting to start as sophomores.

USC quarterback Jayden Maiava looks for an open receiver during a win over Michigan at the Coliseum on Oct. 11.

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(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)

It’s not clear yet if that’ll be the case with Longstreet. But this week, Riley made a clear plea for the young passer’s patience when asked about the challenge of convincing a top prospect to stick around in a reserve role.

“For any player, especially a quarterback, I don’t know if this would be the right time to leave this place,” Riley said. “This thing is getting pretty good. And I think a lot of people recognize that, both in what we have now and what we’re bringing in, where this thing is going.”

Speaking to Longstreet’s situation, Riley pointed to his track record with quarterbacks who waited their turn.

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“Other than Jalen Hurts, we haven’t had any quarterback that’s come in and was the guy right away,” Riley said. “Every one of them, all the guys that did all the things, they all had that time. And if you ask them now, maybe then they wanted to be playing of course, the competitor in them. But if you ask them now, they’re all damn happy they had time and it made a big difference. Because when it became their time, they were ready.”

USC quarterback Husan Longstreet  scores a touchdown against Missouri State at the Coliseum on Aug. 30.

USC quarterback Husan Longstreet scores a touchdown against the Missouri State at the Coliseum on Aug. 30.

(Luke Hales/Getty Images)

Maiava, of course, has been more than just a mere caretaker. After all, he leads the Big Ten in passing yards per game this season (3,174), while also leading USC in rushing touchdowns (6). With Maiava and his cannon arm at the helm, USC’s offense has returned to its right place as one of college football’s most explosive outfits, producing 51 plays of 20-plus yards this season, fourth-most in the nation.

On paper, there’s no reason to think Riley would be eager to replace Maiava, who has rejuvenated both the read-option game and the downfield aspect of his offense since taking over for Miller Moss last season. But the conversation about USC’s future at the position was complicated by the second half of the season, during which Maiava stumbled against stiffer competition.

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During the Trojans’ first six games, Maiava appeared to have taken a major step forward. He was completing 72% of his passes, up 12% from the previous year. He was averaging an eye-popping 11 yards per attempt, two yards better than Caleb Williams in his Heisman-winning season. Plus, after vowing to cut down on turnovers, Maiava had only thrown two interceptions over those six games, showcasing a much better grasp of the game and Riley’s offense.

“A very high percentage of our plays, he knows what to do and where to go with the ball,” Riley said. “He’s very comfortable with what we’re doing. Very focused, confident on his reads. That’s why he’s been so efficient all year.”

The strong start garnered serious NFL interest. Pro Football Focus just recently ranked Maiava as the No. 5 draft-eligible quarterback in the upcoming draft. But his second half of the season has begged some questions — not just about whether Maiava is ready to declare for the draft, but whether he’s the right quarterback for Riley to prioritize heading into next season.

Up against three of the nation’s top 11 defenses in pass yards allowed — Oregon, Iowa and Nebraska — Maiava keeps up the same consistency from the season’s first half. His completion rate, through his last five outings, sits just above 59% — lower than it was during his 2024 stint as USC’s starter. Maiava’s turnovers have also tripled during that stretch (6), while he’s averaging more than three yards fewer per attempt (7.64)

Riley said Tuesday that Maiava’s inconsistencies of late were due to the caliber of defenses he’s faced — and circumstances that forced USC’s offense to be aggressive downfield.

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“We’ve continued to score points and win games and have one of the best offenses in the country, and he’s been a big part of that,” Riley said. “He’s still learning. He can play better. But he’s continuing to give us chances to win every week.”

USC quarterback Jayden Maiava gives thumbs up to teammates.

USC quarterback Jayden Maiava gestures to teammates during a win over Iowa on Nov. 15.

(Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press)

He’ll also have the chance in the coming weeks to consider if he wants to enter the NFL draft.

In the meantime, Longstreet will continue to watch dutifully as the No. 2 quarterback. He’s appeared in four games, completing 13 of 15 passes, on his way to a redshirt season. That time waiting, Riley said, has been essential.

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“This has been such a valuable year for him — to serve as a backup quarterback, to learn, to just kind of be there to see all of these things transpire,” Riley said. “These are just things you can’t simulate. It gives you an opportunity to watch these different situations, how they happen, be able to go back, like, ‘What would you do? How would you handle it?’

“The hope is maybe you learn, ‘All right, I wasn’t the one playing, but when I am, I know exactly what I need to do or what I don’t need to do.’ It might be about on the field. It might be about leadership. It might be about a number of different things.”

USC quarterback Husan Longstreet is pushed out of bounds by Illinois' Miles Scott at Memorial Stadium on Sept. 27.

USC quarterback Husan Longstreet is pushed out of bounds by Illinois’ Miles Scott at Memorial Stadium on Sept. 27 in Champaign, Ill.

(Justin Casterline / Getty Images)

When Longstreet will get a chance to put that knowledge to use remains to be seen. But his teammates at USC have been impressed so far by what they’ve seen from the freshman.

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“Husan is a machine, for real,” said freshman Tanook Hines. “He throwing that thing about 80 [yards], then turn around and run 4.3, 4.2.”

Others were even more encouraging of the quarterback they hope stays a part of USC’s plans.

“He’s destined for greatness,” guard Kaylon Miller said of Longstreet. “Every single time I see him out there, I tell him, keep doing your thing. You keep going on the route you are right now, you’re going to be great.”

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Toronto adds Dylan Cease, reinforcing pitching rotation after World Series loss: reports

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Toronto adds Dylan Cease, reinforcing pitching rotation after World Series loss: reports

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After coming up short in a Game 7 World Series thriller, the Toronto Blue Jays wasted little time making a free agency splash. 

According to multiple reports, free agent pitcher Dylan Cease agreed to a $210 million, seven-year contract. Cease has been a reliable arm, making at least 32 starts in each of the last five MLB seasons.

The right-hander posted a 4.55 ERA with the San Diego Padres. He recorded 215 strikeouts and walked 71 batters in 168 innings.

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Dylan Cease of the San Diego Padres pitches against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park July 25, 2024, in Washington, D.C. (Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)

Cease spent his first five years with the Chicago White Sox, including a 2022 season in which he went 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA despite leading the majors in walks. He finished second in AL Cy Young Award balloting.

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After one more year in Chicago, he was traded to San Diego in March 2024 and went 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA that season, finishing fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting.

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease celebrates after the third out during the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers Sept. 24, 2025, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull, File)

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Cease was one of the top free-agent pitchers on the market this offseason and he joins a Blue Jays team that won the American East division this year.

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease winds up to throw against the Washington Nationals July 25, 2024, in Washington, D.C.  (AP Photo/John McDonnell)

Toronto’s rotation already features Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber and José Berríos. Chris Bassitt and 41-year-old Max Scherzer, the three-time Cy Young Award winner who started Game 7 of the World Series, became free agents this month.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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