Sports
Ranking upset chances for College Football Playoff underdogs: Will any road team win?
As underdog hunters, we have been excited to watch college football’s championship morph into a playoff system, because with seeds come officially designated Davids and Goliaths, and with brackets come chances for meaningful upsets.
Well, that was our theory, anyway. The way this inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff has panned out, Boise State and Arizona State — entertaining squads who were conference champions but are by no stretch statistically dominant teams — grabbed the No. 3 and 4 seeds and the byes that go with them. And the fifth through 12th playoff contestants are now lined up pretty accurately. In each of this weekend’s first-round matchups, sportsbooks are favoring the home teams by more than a touchdown, and we can understand why.
But we can still help you hunt for value in the CFP’s opening round.
From NCAA basketball to the Olympics to the NFL, we have found that playoff underdogs tend to have three traits in common: They are underrated, they play high-risk/high-reward styles and they’ve suffered from bad luck.
So, this is how we studied the first round of the CFP: We looked at the power ratings of every team according to four systems, all of which essentially adjust the components of wins and losses (such as scoring) for strength of schedule: ESPN’s SP+ rankings, the Massey Ratings, the Simple Rating System and Team Rankings’ Predictive Ratings. We calculated the gaps between each set of opponents and then applied our bracket-breaking criteria. These are the results, with games listed in order of their upset chances.
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State
Upset chance: 33.4 percent
While betting lines have made SMU a +260 underdog in this contest, implying a 27.8 percent chance of a win, we think the Mustangs have a one-in-three chance (33.4 percent) of pulling off an upset.
For one, we’ve put together a Variability Index that measures how widely a team’s performance, adjusted for opponents, swings from week to week. The Mustangs rank 105th in the FBS this year, meaning they have been highly inconsistent. That’s good for an underdog: the better you are at your best, the greater your chances of beating a superior foe (and in a win-or-go-home scenario, nobody really cares how bad you are at your worst).
It’s doubly good in this case because the main reason SMU’s strength has changed considerably from game to game is that the Mustangs kept improving. Predicted to finish seventh in their first season in the ACC, they instead clobbered their conference opponents by increasing margins from the beginning of October through the end of November.
Led by Kevin Jennings, a quarterback who’s both efficient (66 percent completion percentage, 8.9 yards per attempt) and mobile (29.2 rushing yards per game), SMU’s up-tempo offense has racked up 501 points this season, sixth-most in the country. The Mustangs’ defense is more uneven. Their outstanding front four smothers the run and gets to opposing QBs: SMU allows just 2.7 yards per rush and has totaled 40 sacks; both of those figures are third-best in the FBS. But while the Mustangs have three safeties whose Pro Football Focus coverage grades rank among the top 30 in the country, SMU has given up a whopping 3,025 passing yards (ranking 111th). Buy the Mustangs, and you’re betting their pass rush will boom before their zone defense goes bust — and so far, that’s been a good wager.
SMU is also better than the result of its last game, a loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. A sack, fumble return and penalty on a punt landed the Mustangs down by 14 before the game was five minutes old. Then they clawed all the way back, only for Clemson to beat them, 34-31, on a last-second 56-yard field goal. Chances are the Mustangs won’t dig themselves into that deep a hole again — another reason their odds against Abdul Carter & Co. are better than they look.
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame
Upset chance: 27.9 percent
Subjectively, the Hoosiers, who are likely the best team in the 125-year history of Indiana football, make a heck of an underdog. And we’ve sung the praises of their coach, their quarterbacks and their receivers. But they’re +230 at BetMGM, and we see that as a bit generous: It implies upset chances of 30.3 percent vs. odds we calculate at 27.9 percent.
Statistically, we have to ask how much air needs to be let out of the Hoosiers’ tires because of their mediocre schedule. And while we can’t precisely quantify the answer yet, it’s some version of “a lot.” They’ve had a single game against a top-25 opponent all season — and Ohio State outgained Indiana by more than two-to-one, with Kurtis Rourke passing for just 68 yards en route to a 38-15 thrashing.
The Hoosiers aren’t simply an offensive juggernaut: They’ve allowed only 14.7 points per game (sixth in the FBS) while surrendering just 5.7 yards per passing attempt and a total of 10 passing touchdowns. But Notre Dame has given up a mere 13.6 points per game (ranking third), stifling opponents to 5.6 yards per attempt and nine passing TDs.
Bettors have taken a long time to appreciate Indiana, which has gone 9-3 against the spread this year, similar to the Fighting Irish, who are 9-2-1 ATS. The Hoosiers have been slightly lucky at converting points to wins, and Notre Dame has been slightly unlucky (as in two-points-away-from-being-undefeated unlucky).
One signal does favor the Hoosiers: Through December 16, 56 percent of the bets and 63 percent of the money wagered on this game have been on Indiana, according to the Action Network. But we can’t find much to trump the statistical evidence that there’s a difference of a bit more than a touchdown between these teams.
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State
Upset chance: 25 percent
Advanced ranking systems suggest there is a much larger gap in this game than a one-seed difference would imply. That’s particularly true in the Simple Rating System (SRS) ratings, which place the Buckeyes as the best of the eight teams playing first-round games and the Volunteers the worst. The three other systems are more generous to Tennessee, but our synergistic model still only gives the Vols a 25 percent chance of winning, compared to an implied 29.4 percent offered by the +240 moneyline at BetMGM.
However, there are reasons to believe the metrics are undervaluing Tennessee. That’s mostly due to the Vols’ defense. According to Sharp Football’s “Defensive Beta_Rank” advanced stats, Tennessee has the country’s eighth-best defense. The Vols only allowed two teams to score more than 19 points all season: Georgia (31) and Vanderbilt (23, seven of which came from a kickoff return on the opening play). They held Alabama to 17 points in a victory in October, and the Crimson Tide happen to rank ninth in Sharp’s offensive ratings, one spot ahead of Ohio State.
It’s also worth noting that Ohio State’s offense has sputtered at times against strong defenses. The Buckeyes only scored 20 points against Penn State’s 14th-ranked unit and infamously put up only 10 points against Michigan’s 19th-ranked defense. Of course, Ohio State scored 30-plus against top-25 defenses from Indiana (seventh), Oregon (17th) and Iowa (22nd). So the Buckeyes certainly have explosive potential.
But this game has all the ingredients for a tight, physical, conservative battle. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 20s in Columbus Saturday night. Ohio State’s defense is even better than Tennessee’s (No. 2 in Sharp’s ratings). This matchup has the lowest total (46.5) of any first-round game, which means there’s more of a chance for a pesky underdog to hang around. Tennessee has been consistent (30th in our variability rankings) and right in the middle of the pack in luck ratings, so even if that doesn’t ultimately lead to a Tennessee outright win, that game script could favor the Vols +7.5, as well as the under.
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas
Upset chance: 22.8 percent
You know, those folks in Vegas might have a pretty good idea of what they’re doing. Clemson is +325 on the moneyline, which means its implied odds to win are 23.5 percent. That aligns with the chance our composite model gives the Tigers (22.8 percent).
Unfortunately for the Tigers, neither their underdog traits nor Texas’ profile as a favorite does much to shift those odds. Clemson ranks in the mid-50s in the FBS in both variability and luck, so they haven’t really underperformed or shown a massive ceiling this season. And Texas is exactly what you want to see in a safe favorite: Not only are the Longhorns extremely consistent (seventh in the country in lowest variability), but they’ve also been unfortunate (82nd in luck). So they may be even better than their record indicates.
But instead of ending on some misbegotten crack about how Syracuse would make a more entertaining ACC entrant in the CFP than Clemson, let’s use this game to consider a truly amazing probability. If Texas gets by Clemson, we estimate there’s about an 85 percent chance the Longhorns would then defeat Arizona State. Which means the odds that Texas will make the semifinal of the Playoff are about two in three.
Now ask yourself: Does Oregon have a 65 percent chance to beat Ohio State?
The biggest lesson from how the CFP matchups are shaking out is that Texas’ No. 5 slot is the sweetest spot in the field. Even with the Ducks holding a bye in their beaks, at this moment, you’d rather be Texas than Oregon.
(Illustration by Will Tullos; photo of Kevin Jennings: Grant Halverson / Getty Images; photo of Kurtis Rourke: James Black / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; photo of Dylan Sampson: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)
Sports
ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum questions Trump’s college sports reform meeting as potential ‘circus’
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!
President Donald Trump will host a White House roundtable regarding college athletics reform later this week.
The panel is expected to include prominent coaches, college sports and pro sports league commissioners, and other professional athletes, according to OutKick.
The group will meet March 6 to examine solutions to key challenges, including NCAA authority; name, image and likeness issues (NIL); collective bargaining; and governance concerns.
President Donald Trump holds a football presented to him during a ceremony to present the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy to the US Naval Academy football team, the Navy Midshipmen, in the East Room of the White House on April 15, 2025 in Washington, D.C. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
The meeting Friday will include big names like Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Adam Silver and Tiger Woods. Trump has been adamant about “saving college sports,” even signing an executive order setting new restrictions on payments to college athletes back in July.
However, ESPN college analyst Paul Finebaum, who has previously hinted at a congressional run as a Republican, remains a bit skeptical.
“The easiest thing, guys, is just to say this is ridiculous,” Finebaum said to Greg McElroy and Cole Cubelic on WJOX. “And I read the other day, ‘Why is Nick Saban going?’ Why is anybody going? The bottom line is this. If something doesn’t happen very quickly, and I mean in the next short period of time, we’re talking about weeks, not years, then this thing could blow up.
“However it came about, I’m in favor of. The question now becomes, with some of the most powerful people in Washington in the same room, including the most powerful person in the country, can anything get done, or will it be a circus? Will it be just another show?”
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with former Alabama Crimson Tide football coach Nick Saban as Trump takes the stage to address graduating students at Coleman Coliseum at the University of Alabama on May 01, 2025 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Trump’s order prohibits athletes from receiving pay-to-play payments from third-party sources. However, the order did not impose any restrictions on NIL payments to college athletes by third-party sources.
A House vote on the SCORE Act (Student Compensation and Opportunity through Rights and Endorsements), which would regulate name, image, and likeness deals, was canceled shortly before it was set to be brought to the floor in December.
The White House endorsed the act, but three Republicans, Byron Donalds, Fla., Scott Perry, Pa., and Chip Roy, Texas, voted with Democrats not to bring the act to the floor. Democrats have largely opposed the bill, urging members of the House to vote “no.”
President Donald Trump looks on before the college football game between the US Army and Navy at the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland, on Dec. 13, 2025. (Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP via Getty Images)
The SCORE Act would give the NCAA a limited antitrust exemption in hopes of protecting the NCAA from potential lawsuits over eligibility rules and would prohibit athletes from becoming employees of their schools. It prohibits schools from using student fees to fund NIL payments.
Fox News’ Chantz Martin and Ryan Gaydos contributed to this report.
Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X, and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter
Sports
Lakers hope comeback win over Pelicans gives the team a timely boost
Lakers center Jaxson Hayes falls after Pelicans forward Zion Williamson commits an offensive foul as Lakers guard Austin Reaves watches at at Crypto.com Arena on Tuesday.
(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times)
Matching the physicality of Pelicans forwards Zion Williamson and Saddiq Bey was on the top of the Lakers’ scouting report. But the task is easier said than done.
Reaves admitted to being “terrified” of stepping in front of a driving Williamson to draw a charge. The 6-foot-6, 284-pound Pelicans forward is just as physical as he is athletic, creating a fearsome combination for defenders. Healthy for the first time in two seasons, Williamson led the Pelicans with 24 points on 10-for-18 shooting.
“We haven’t seen somebody like that in a long time, right?” Smart said. “[With] his ability. But [being] willing to put your body there, take a charge, take an elbow to the face, box him out, go vertical, is definitely something that you got to be willing to do, and not everybody’s willing to do it. And that’s the difference in the game.”
Center Jaxson Hayes was up to the task. He absorbed a Williamson elbow in the fourth quarter and ended up in the front row of the stands holding his jaw. But the knock was worth it for the offensive foul that helped maintain the Lakers’ 14-0 run that quickly erased the Pelicans’ eight-point lead. The scoring streak started immediately after Hayes subbed back into the game with 7:20 remaining after he scored on his first possession, cutting to the basket for a dunk off an assist from Doncic.
Hayes had eight points, six rebounds and two blocks, playing nearly 23 minutes off the bench in his biggest workload as a substitute since Jan. 20 against Denver. After playing with Hayes in New Orleans during the center’s first two years in the league, Redick lauded the seven-year pro’s improvement. Hayes is sinking touch shots around the rim now. He has improved his decision making in the pocket. After getting benched for his defensive lapses last season, Hayes has impressed coaches with his consistent ability to stay vertical while protecting the rim. And he still brings the same trademark athleticism that made him the eighth overall pick in 2019.
“He consistently injects energy into the group when he runs the floor, blocks a shot, or he gets those dunks,” Redick said.
Sports
Eileen Gu reflects on decision to leave Team USA for China: ‘A lot of people just don’t understand’
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!
Eileen Gu released a statement on social media Monday, reflecting on her controversial decision to compete for Team China despite being born and raised in the U.S.
Gu’s statement tied the decision back to her passion for promoting women’s sports, and encouraging young girls to pursue sports.
“I gave my first speech on women in sports and title IX when I was 11 years old. I talked about being the only girl on my ski team, and, despite attending an all-girls’ school from Monday through Friday, becoming best friends with my teammates on the weekends through the common language of sport,” Gu wrote on Instagram.
Silver medalist Eileen Gu of China poses for photos after the awarding ceremony of the freestyle skiing women’s freeski big air event at the Milan-Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games in Livigno, Italy, Feb. 16, 2026. (Photo by Wang Peng/Xinhua via Getty Images) (Wang Peng/Xinhua via Getty Images)
“At the same time, I was made painfully aware of the lack of representation – at age 9, I felt that I was somehow representing all women every time I stepped in the terrain park. Landing tricks was about more than progression … it was about disproving the derisive implication of what it meant to ‘ski like a girl.’”
Gu went on to express gratitude for the one season in which she did compete for the U.S.
“When I was 15, I announced my decision to compete for China. At the time, I had spent one season on the US team, and had been lucky enough to meet my heroes in person. I am forever grateful for that season, and continue to maintain a close relationship with the team. I had spent every summer in China since I was 8 setting up summer camps on trampoline and dry slope for kids and adults, ranging from 7 to 47 years old, so I knew the industry was tiny. I felt like I knew everyone,” she added.
“Skiing for Team China meant the opportunity to uplift others through the universal culture of sport, and to introduce freeskiing to hundreds of millions of people who had never heard of it, especially with the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics around the corner.”
Gu’s statement concluded by acknowledging that certain people “don’t understand” her decision to compete for China over the U.S., while insisting the choice maximized the impact she would have.
“I can look back now, at 22, and tell 12 year old Eileen that there are now terrain parks full of little girls, who will never doubt their place in the sport. I can tell 15 year old me that there are now millions of girls who have started skiing since then, in China and worldwide,” Gu wrote.
“A lot of people won’t understand or believe that I made a decision to create the greatest amount of positive impact on the world stage that I could, at this age, given my interests and passions. Three golds and six medals later, I can confidently say was once a dream is now a reality.”
Gu has become a target for global criticism this Olympics for her decision to represent China while remaining silent on the country’s alleged human rights abuses.
In an interview with Time magazine, Gu was asked her thoughts on China’s alleged persecution of Uyghurs and other Turkic Muslim minorities in Xinjiang.
“I haven’t done the research. I don’t think it’s my business. I’m not going to make big claims on my social media,” Gu answered.
“I’m just more of a skeptic when it comes to data in general. … So, it’s not like I can read an article and be like, ‘Oh, well, this must be the truth.’ I need to have a ton of evidence. I need to maybe go to the place, maybe talk to 10 primary source people who are in a location and have experienced life there.
“Then I need to go see images. I need to listen to recordings. I need to think about how history affects it. Then I need to read books on how politics affects it. This is a lifelong search. It’s irresponsible to ask me to be the mouthpiece for any agenda.”
More controversy surrounding Gu erupted after The Wall Street Journal reported that Gu and another American-born athlete who now competes for China, were paid a combined $6.6 million by the Beijing Municipal Sports Bureau in 2025.
Gu is the highest-paid Winter Olympics athlete in the world, making an estimated $23 million in 2025 alone due to partnerships with Chinese companies, including the Bank of China and western companies.
Her alignment with China prompted criticism from many Americans this Olympics, including Vice President J.D. Vance.
“I certainly think that someone who grew up in the United States of America who benefited from our education system, from the freedoms and liberties that makes this country a great place, I would hope they want to compete with the United States of America,” Vance said in an interview on Fox News’ “The Story with Martha MacCallum.”
Later, when Gu was asked if she feels “like a bit of a punching bag for a certain strand of American politics at the moment,” she said she does.
“I do,” she said. “So many athletes compete for a different country. … People only have a problem with me doing it because they kind of lump China into this monolithic entity, and they just hate China. So, it’s not really about what they think it’s about.
“And, also, because I win. Like, if I wasn’t doing well, I think that they probably wouldn’t care as much, and that’s OK for me. People are entitled to their opinions.”
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
Silver medalist Eileen Gu of China attends the awarding ceremony of the freestyle skiing women’s freeski big air event at the Milan-Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games in Livigno, Italy, Feb. 16, 2026. (Hongxiang/Xinhua via Getty Images)
Gu has claimed she was “physically assaulted” for the decision.
“The police were called. I’ve had death threats. I’ve had my dorm robbed,” Gu told The Athletic.
“I’ve gone through some things as a 22-year-old that I really think no one should ever have to endure, ever.”
Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X, and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.
-
World7 days agoExclusive: DeepSeek withholds latest AI model from US chipmakers including Nvidia, sources say
-
Massachusetts7 days agoMother and daughter injured in Taunton house explosion
-
Denver, CO7 days ago10 acres charred, 5 injured in Thornton grass fire, evacuation orders lifted
-
Louisiana1 week agoWildfire near Gum Swamp Road in Livingston Parish now under control; more than 200 acres burned
-
Florida3 days agoFlorida man rescued after being stuck in shoulder-deep mud for days
-
Oregon5 days ago2026 OSAA Oregon Wrestling State Championship Results And Brackets – FloWrestling
-
Maryland3 days agoAM showers Sunday in Maryland
-
Wisconsin3 days agoSetting sail on iceboats across a frozen lake in Wisconsin