Sports
Putting a price tag on extending Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease and other looming free agents
Monday’s deep dive into Paul Skenes, perhaps the most interesting extension case in baseball, was a sneak peek of Extension Week.
Now I’ll start a broader look at potential extension candidates, concentrating today on players whose value is less speculative: impending free agents.
These players are, in general, less likely to sign an extension with free agency waiting at the end of this season, and my analysis here is basically projecting what each player could earn on the open market before adding in his 2025 salary. If nothing else, it’s an early projection for a free-agent deal this upcoming winter.
Since last spring’s Extension Week, three players actually put pen to paper on an extension, all earning a bit more than I projected:
| Player | Projected | Received |
|---|---|---|
|
4 years, $136M |
3 years, $126M |
|
|
5 years, $82.5M |
10 years, $122.4M |
|
|
6 years, $48M |
6 years, $55M |
*Here and in all other tables, I’ll account for significant deferrals by using the present-day value of the contract when it was signed.
I’ve tried to factor that into the analysis this year.
Here’s how I go about this: I’ve got a big Excel spreadsheet with more than 1,100 free-agent and extension contracts in it, as well as players’ performance in the years leading up to those contracts, as defined by FanGraphs’ wins above replacement. Whereas players get paid off home runs and saves in arbitration, I’ve found fWAR to be a solid (though not all-knowing) predictor of earnings on the open market.
I plug extension candidates into the spreadsheet, find players with similar levels of production (and ideally with similar amounts of team control left) before they signed their deals, and work off of those comps.
A few overall points worth remembering:
- For extensions, team control is important. If Player A looks just like Player B, except Player A has three years of arbitration ahead of him and Player B was a free agent, Player A isn’t going to get the contract Player B did. However, what Player B made in free agency is still useful as a guide to what the later part of Player A’s contract can look like.
- For starting pitchers and position players, I look at fWAR in one-, three- and five-year samples, with a special emphasis on the shorter term. For extensions in particular, the five-year sample is less helpful because a lot of players haven’t been playing for five full years.
- For relievers, I look at one- and two-year samples. What happened five years ago isn’t really relevant for such a volatile position, and I’ve found more of a recency bias in contracts here than elsewhere.
- This is an exercise in player valuation, not commentary on the likelihood of an extension being signed or whether I think a team or player should sign an extension at the value I suggest. I find doing this helpful even when an extension is unlikely because it helps me understand what the market may be once a player reaches free agency or to see how the player’s value has changed over time.
As we go through this, keep in mind:
- The actual extension projection in all cases includes what the player is slated to make this season. It will likely contain a lower AAV (average annual value) than the player would get on the open market for this reason.
- These players should have higher projections this year than last year. Last year, they were two years removed from free agency, and they were slated to make below market value via arbitration.
- The number in parentheses is the player’s age on July 1 of this year.
- In the charts, “Today AAV” is the average annual value of the deal adjusted for inflation.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (26)
Maybe no one in baseball had a better year for their potential earnings than Guerrero. His 5.5-win season (according to FanGraphs) washed away any concerns after a pedestrian 2023 and reminded the sport that he’s one of its very best hitters. Plus, a player with similar strengths and weaknesses signed for more than $750 million. So Guerrero is in significantly better shape this spring than he was last spring.
Earlier in spring training, I broke down why Guerrero’s value in an extension has proven difficult to pin down. At the moment, he looks like he belongs just below the second tier of free-agent contracts for first basemen (Miguel Cabrera is the sole occupant of the top tier).
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3 ▼ |
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2012 |
32-41 |
3.9 |
19.1 |
35.5 |
10 |
240 |
33.6 |
|
|
2014 |
30-39 |
6.4 |
17.9 |
21.4 |
10 |
225 |
30.6 |
|
|
2019 |
31-35 |
5.2 |
15.4 |
26.9 |
5 |
130 |
32.8 |
|
|
2009 |
29-36 |
6.9 |
14.8 |
24.9 |
8 |
180 |
33.8 |
|
|
2025 |
26 |
5.5 |
10.1 |
16.7 |
Extending a deal for a massive 14 free-agent years would limit the AAV just a touch, to about $30 million. I know, I know: A deal that long comes off as crazy. But there have been a dozen players who have signed deals at least nine years in length in the last three offseasons — or just shy of the number of contracts that long that were signed over the prior decade. Four of them (Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts) extend through a player’s age-40 season, as this one would for Guerrero.
2024 extension projection: Seven years, $185 million
2025 Salary: $28.5 million
2025 extension projection: 15 years, $450 million
Kyle Tucker (28)
If Tucker had remained healthy last season and continued playing the way he did in the first half of the season, his best statistical comp would be… Soto. Because of his age, Tucker wouldn’t have been able to get as long a deal as Soto, but he would have been able to make a case for a similar average annual value.
The comps are not bad as is.
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3 ▼ |
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2019 |
26-35 |
6.2 |
14.9 |
23.8 |
10 |
300.0 |
37.8 |
|
|
2009 |
29-36 |
6.9 |
14.8 |
24.9 |
8 |
180.0 |
33.8 |
|
|
2025 |
28 |
4.2 |
14.1 |
22.9 |
||||
|
2025 |
31-33 |
4.1 |
14.0 |
20.5 |
3 |
90.0 |
30.0 |
|
|
2012 |
28-36 |
4.7 |
13.2 |
19.2 |
9 |
214.0 |
33.3 |
Tucker should be able to secure a deal through at least his age-36 season, and it’s not hard for him to argue he should go longer than either Teixeira or Fielder. Let’s go with 10 years at about $35 million each before adding in this season’s salary.
2024 extension projection: Eight years, $204 million
2025 salary: $16.5 million
2025 extension projection: 11 years, $366 million
Dylan Cease (29)
Last season, Cease and Zac Gallen entered in a similar spot: at the same age, earning about the same in arbitration, in line for about the same extension. Then, while Gallen had a nice season, Cease posted another top-five finish in the Cy Young balloting. He’s placed himself in the same group as the top earning starters from this past winter.
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3 ▼ |
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2025 |
29 |
4.8 |
12.8 |
17.8 |
||||
|
2025 |
30-35 |
3.7 |
11.8 |
24.2 |
6 |
193.8 |
32.3 |
|
|
2015 |
31-36 |
5.6 |
11.6 |
19.1 |
6 |
155.0 |
35.1 |
|
|
2025 |
31-38 |
3.4 |
10.1 |
17.6 |
8 |
218.0 |
27.3 |
Lester sets the high end for Cease, and that comp suggests Cease can in fact get more than Burnes just did from the Diamondbacks. Both point to a deal buying out six free-agent years. Let’s estimate those at just under $33 million and add in this year’s salary.
2024 extension projection: Seven years, $140 million
2025 salary: $13.75 million
2025 extension projection: Seven years, $210 million
Zac Gallen (29)
Right now, Gallen isn’t quite on the same level as Cease.
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3
|
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2016 |
30-35 |
4.0 |
9.4 |
17.0 |
6 |
130.0 |
29.0 |
|
|
2016 |
30-34 |
3.0 |
12.0 |
18.7 |
5 |
110.0 |
29.5 |
|
|
2025 |
29 |
2.8 |
12.2 |
15.6 |
This sets him up for roughly the 2025 version of Cueto’s deal in free agency: six years and $174 million, before adding this year’s salary.
2024 extension projection: Seven years, $140 million
2025 salary: $13.5 million
2025 extension projection: Seven years, $187 million
Framber Valdez (31)
Valdez has had just as much success as Cease and Gallen; the issue for him is he’s two years older than those guys. Starters who hit the open market entering their age-32 season seldom sign for more than three or four years. (The exceptions are guys like Zack Greinke, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, who all owned Cy Young awards.)
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3
|
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2016 |
30-35 |
4.0 |
9.4 |
17.0 |
6 |
130.0 |
29.0 |
|
|
2016 |
30-34 |
3.0 |
12.0 |
18.7 |
5 |
110.0 |
29.5 |
|
|
2025 |
31 |
3.6 |
12.4 |
16.8 |
Let’s stick with the same comps as Gallen but only for four free-agent years rather than six.
2024 extension projection: Five years, $105 million
2025 salary: $18 million
2025 extension projection: Five years, $134 million
Devin Williams (30)
Just looking at the raw numbers isn’t charitable to Williams, who on a per-appearance basis is right there with recent closers who signed four-year deals like Raisel Iglesias and Tanner Scott. (Williams missed roughly two-thirds of last season.)
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR2
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2022 |
32-35 |
2.0 |
5.0 |
4.0 |
58 |
16.4 |
|
|
2025 |
30 |
1.6 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
72.0 |
18.0 |
|
|
2025 |
30 |
0.8 |
2.6 |
Given that no position gets paid on reputation quite the way closer does, Williams could still be in line for a deal that rivals Scott’s, before adding in this year’s salary.
2024 extension projection: N/A
2025 salary: $8.6 million
2025 extension projection: Five years, $80 million
(Top photo of Dylan Cease: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)
Sports
‘Demon’ Finn Balor settles score with Dominik Mysterio at WrestleMania 42
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LAS VEGAS – Finn Balor and Dominik Mysterio were once brothers in arms in the Judgment Day. The two helped the faction run “Monday Night Raw” for several years.
As championships and opportunities came and went, the rift between Balor and Mysterio grew. It came to a head when Balor caused Mysterio to lose the Intercontinental Championship to Penta. Balor leaving the Judgment Day left Mysterio and Liv Morgan as the leaders with JD McDonagh, Raquel Rodriguez and Roxanne Perez sticking around.
Finn Balor is introduced before his match against Dominik Mysterio during WrestleMania 42 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev., on April 19, 2026. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
The latter four chose to ride with Mysterio and attacked Balor on one episode of Raw.
The bitter war led to a match Sunday night at WrestleMania 42. To make matters more interesting, Raw General Manager Adam Pearce made the match a street fight hours before the show was set to begin.
Balor had vowed to bring the “Demon” out and he certainly did.
JACOB FATU PUTS DREW MCINTYRE IN THE ‘REAR VIEW’ IN UNSANCTIONED MATCH AT WRESTLEMANIA 42
Finn Balor is introduced before his match against Dominik Mysterio during WrestleMania 42 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev., on April 19, 2026. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Balor made his way to the ring in his “Demon” gear, dripping with red and black paint. Mysterio was in a mask with other Mysterio supporters.
The two then proceeded to beat the crud out of each other.
Mysterio wrapped Balor’s head in between a chair and hit a 619 on him. He tried to pin Balor, but to no avail. At another point, Mysterio tossed Balor through a table set up in the corner.
As many have learned, it’s hard to keep your demons down. Mysterio learned the hard way.
Balor would not give up. Balor clotheslined Mysterio, hit him with a chair multiple times before wrapping his head in between the chair and drop-kicking him into the corner. Balor put Mysterio onto a table and hit the Coup de Grâce for the win.
Dominik Mysterio is introduced before his match against Finn Balor during WrestleMania 42 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev., on April 19, 2026. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
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Balor excised his own demons, while Mysterio is still haunted.
Sports
Ryan Ward has a solid debut, but bullpen blows it again as Dodgers lose to Rockies
DENVER — What do you know? The once-stampeding Dodgers have been caged by the Colorado Rockies.
With a 9-6 loss Sunday at Coors Field, the two-time defending World Series champions lost back-to-back games for the first time this season. The Dodgers again couldn’t hold a lead, letting the Rockies tee off for 15 hits.
Nor could the Dodgers keep up offensively at the hitter-friendly park — though they put some pressure on in the ninth inning, when Shohei Ohtani led off with a ground-rule double and the Dodgers scored twice to cut the lead to three runs. Then the new guy, Ryan Ward, made the final out in his big league debut, robbed of a hit and a chance to keep chipping away by a diving Troy Johnston in right field.
Before that, the Rockies — who beat the Dodgers twice in 13 meetings all of last season — chased starter Roki Sasaki from the game in the fifth inning and then ruffled the Dodgers’ relievers. That included closer Edwin Díaz, who came on in the eighth and promptly gave up three singles, a walk and two runs before being pulled with the Dodgers trailing 8-4.
Dodgers starting pitcher Roki Sasaki gave up three runs on seven hits in 4-2/3 innings Sunday against the Rockies in Denver.
(David Zalubowski / Associated Press)
He and Blake Treinen combined to face eight batters without getting an out.
“They both weren’t sharp,” said manager Dave Roberts, who had theories but not many answers — though he did have real concern, especially about Díaz, who recently had his right knee checked out by the medical staff.
Roberts said the closer wanted to pitch after nine days off, even though it wasn’t a save situation. But his velocity was slightly down (95.4 mph vs. 95.8) and so, “today was a tough evaluation,” the manager said.
“It really was,” Roberts said. “Because, you know, I know what it’s supposed to look like, and when it doesn’t look like that, it gets a little concerning, really.”
And losing for the second time to the Rockies, who are now 9-13? Being in danger of losing their four-game series, after arriving in Denver without having lost to a National League opponent, against a club that hasn’t made the postseason since 2018?
It’s well below the bar the Dodgers have set, and it added a bitter note to Ward’s otherwise sweet debut.
Ward punched a big league clock for the first time wearing No. 67 and cranked his first hit off Rockies starter Michael Lorenzen in the fourth inning, lining a changeup to right field for a single that scored Andy Pages, made it 3-0 and got the 20-some members of Ward’s party up, jumping in place, hugging and high-fiving.
“When I was on first base, I got to see them all jumping around up there,” Ward said. “That was a pretty special moment.”
He also singled in the sixth and swung on the first pitch in his first at-bat, a fly out in the third inning.
The Dodgers gave Sasaki a 2-0 lead in the third. Alex Freeland drove in Hyeseong Kim, and Shohei Ohtani doubled in Freeland — and extended his career-best on-base streak to 51 games, moving past Willie Keeler into third place in Dodgers history.
Sasaki went 4-2/3 innings, threw 78 pitches and gave up three runs on seven hits, striking out two and walking two. His ERA after his fourth start: 6.11, worst in the six-man rotation.
The Dodgers fell behind 6-5 in the seventh when Treinen — who was cleared Friday after he was struck in the head by a batted ball during batting practice — gave up four consecutive hits, including a two-run home run by Mickey Moniak.
The result likely will be a minor detail when Ward tells the story years from now about getting the call after first baseman Freddie Freeman was placed on the paternity list.
The Dodgers’ No. 19 prospect and reigning Pacific Coast League MVP spent the last seven years in the minors. Last season, he hit 36 home runs and drove in 122 runs with a .937 on-base-plus-slugging percentage for triple-A Oklahoma City, and he has a 1.020 OPS and four homers this year.
Ward made it a point to improve his chase rate, draw more walks and get on base more frequently, everything the Dodgers asked of him. He also passed the broadest patience test.
“The plate discipline, being a better hitter … he’s done all that,” Roberts said. “He’s improved his defense. But honestly, for me, just not to let his lack of opportunity in the big leagues deter him. That’s easy when you get frustrated and let it affect performance, and he hasn’t done that.”
If anything, Ward said, the waiting made him better.
“I used it to keep going. ‘OK, if I’m not there yet, what do I have to do to get there?’” he said. “‘What part of my game do I need to work on to keep getting better?’
“I used it as fire to keep working.”
That will be the Dodgers’ assignment too.
In the finale of the four-game series Monday, the Dodgers are expected to start left-hander Justin Wrobleski (2-0, 2.12) against Colorado left-hander Jose Quintana (0-1, 5.63).
Sports
ESPN’s Stephen A Smith hears boos from WrestleMania 42 crowd
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LAS VEGAS – Danhausen’s curse may be real after all – just ask Stephen A. Smith and the New York Mets.
While the latter dropped their 10th game in a row, Smith got his share of the curse on Saturday night during Night 1 of WrestleMania 42. Smith was in attendance for WWE’s premier event of the year and heard massive boos from the crowd.
Stephen A. Smith attends WrestleMania 42: Night 1 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, on April 18, 2026. (Andrew Timms/WWE)
Smith was sitting ringside to watch the action. The ESPN star appeared on the videoboard above the ring at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. He appeared to embrace the reaction and smiled through it.
The boos came after Danhausen appeared on “First Take” on Friday – much to the chagrin of the sports pundit. Smith appeared perplexed by Danhausen’s appearance. Smith said he heard about Danhausen and called him a “bad luck charm.”
Danhausen said Smith had been “rude” to him and put the dreaded “curse” on the commentator.
WWE STAR DANHAUSEN SAYS METS ‘CURSE’ ISN’T EXACTLY LIFTED AS TEAM DROPS NINTH STRAIGHT GAME
Stephen A. Smith attends WrestleMania 42: Night 1 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, on April 18, 2026. (Andrew Timms/WWE)
Smith is far from the only one dealing with the effects of the “curse.”
Danhausen agreed to “un-curse” the Mets during their losing streak. However, he told Fox News Digital earlier this week that there was a reason why the curse’s removal didn’t take full effect.
“I did un-curse the Mets. But it didn’t work because, I believe it was Brian Gewirtz who did not pay Danhausen. He did not send me my money so it did not take full effect,” Danhausen said. “Once I have the money, perhaps it will actually work because right now it’s probably about a half of an un-cursing. It’s like a layaway situation.”
Danhausen enters the arena before his match against Kit Wilson during SmackDown at SAP Center in San Jose, Calif., on April 10, 2026. (Eakin Howard/Getty Images)
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On “Friday Night SmackDown,” WWE stars like The Miz and Kit Wilson were also targets of Danhausen’s curse.
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