Sports
Putting a price tag on extending Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease and other looming free agents
Monday’s deep dive into Paul Skenes, perhaps the most interesting extension case in baseball, was a sneak peek of Extension Week.
Now I’ll start a broader look at potential extension candidates, concentrating today on players whose value is less speculative: impending free agents.
These players are, in general, less likely to sign an extension with free agency waiting at the end of this season, and my analysis here is basically projecting what each player could earn on the open market before adding in his 2025 salary. If nothing else, it’s an early projection for a free-agent deal this upcoming winter.
Since last spring’s Extension Week, three players actually put pen to paper on an extension, all earning a bit more than I projected:
| Player | Projected | Received |
|---|---|---|
|
4 years, $136M |
3 years, $126M |
|
|
5 years, $82.5M |
10 years, $122.4M |
|
|
6 years, $48M |
6 years, $55M |
*Here and in all other tables, I’ll account for significant deferrals by using the present-day value of the contract when it was signed.
I’ve tried to factor that into the analysis this year.
Here’s how I go about this: I’ve got a big Excel spreadsheet with more than 1,100 free-agent and extension contracts in it, as well as players’ performance in the years leading up to those contracts, as defined by FanGraphs’ wins above replacement. Whereas players get paid off home runs and saves in arbitration, I’ve found fWAR to be a solid (though not all-knowing) predictor of earnings on the open market.
I plug extension candidates into the spreadsheet, find players with similar levels of production (and ideally with similar amounts of team control left) before they signed their deals, and work off of those comps.
A few overall points worth remembering:
- For extensions, team control is important. If Player A looks just like Player B, except Player A has three years of arbitration ahead of him and Player B was a free agent, Player A isn’t going to get the contract Player B did. However, what Player B made in free agency is still useful as a guide to what the later part of Player A’s contract can look like.
- For starting pitchers and position players, I look at fWAR in one-, three- and five-year samples, with a special emphasis on the shorter term. For extensions in particular, the five-year sample is less helpful because a lot of players haven’t been playing for five full years.
- For relievers, I look at one- and two-year samples. What happened five years ago isn’t really relevant for such a volatile position, and I’ve found more of a recency bias in contracts here than elsewhere.
- This is an exercise in player valuation, not commentary on the likelihood of an extension being signed or whether I think a team or player should sign an extension at the value I suggest. I find doing this helpful even when an extension is unlikely because it helps me understand what the market may be once a player reaches free agency or to see how the player’s value has changed over time.
As we go through this, keep in mind:
- The actual extension projection in all cases includes what the player is slated to make this season. It will likely contain a lower AAV (average annual value) than the player would get on the open market for this reason.
- These players should have higher projections this year than last year. Last year, they were two years removed from free agency, and they were slated to make below market value via arbitration.
- The number in parentheses is the player’s age on July 1 of this year.
- In the charts, “Today AAV” is the average annual value of the deal adjusted for inflation.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (26)
Maybe no one in baseball had a better year for their potential earnings than Guerrero. His 5.5-win season (according to FanGraphs) washed away any concerns after a pedestrian 2023 and reminded the sport that he’s one of its very best hitters. Plus, a player with similar strengths and weaknesses signed for more than $750 million. So Guerrero is in significantly better shape this spring than he was last spring.
Earlier in spring training, I broke down why Guerrero’s value in an extension has proven difficult to pin down. At the moment, he looks like he belongs just below the second tier of free-agent contracts for first basemen (Miguel Cabrera is the sole occupant of the top tier).
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3 ▼ |
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2012 |
32-41 |
3.9 |
19.1 |
35.5 |
10 |
240 |
33.6 |
|
|
2014 |
30-39 |
6.4 |
17.9 |
21.4 |
10 |
225 |
30.6 |
|
|
2019 |
31-35 |
5.2 |
15.4 |
26.9 |
5 |
130 |
32.8 |
|
|
2009 |
29-36 |
6.9 |
14.8 |
24.9 |
8 |
180 |
33.8 |
|
|
2025 |
26 |
5.5 |
10.1 |
16.7 |
Extending a deal for a massive 14 free-agent years would limit the AAV just a touch, to about $30 million. I know, I know: A deal that long comes off as crazy. But there have been a dozen players who have signed deals at least nine years in length in the last three offseasons — or just shy of the number of contracts that long that were signed over the prior decade. Four of them (Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts) extend through a player’s age-40 season, as this one would for Guerrero.
2024 extension projection: Seven years, $185 million
2025 Salary: $28.5 million
2025 extension projection: 15 years, $450 million
Kyle Tucker (28)
If Tucker had remained healthy last season and continued playing the way he did in the first half of the season, his best statistical comp would be… Soto. Because of his age, Tucker wouldn’t have been able to get as long a deal as Soto, but he would have been able to make a case for a similar average annual value.
The comps are not bad as is.
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3 ▼ |
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2019 |
26-35 |
6.2 |
14.9 |
23.8 |
10 |
300.0 |
37.8 |
|
|
2009 |
29-36 |
6.9 |
14.8 |
24.9 |
8 |
180.0 |
33.8 |
|
|
2025 |
28 |
4.2 |
14.1 |
22.9 |
||||
|
2025 |
31-33 |
4.1 |
14.0 |
20.5 |
3 |
90.0 |
30.0 |
|
|
2012 |
28-36 |
4.7 |
13.2 |
19.2 |
9 |
214.0 |
33.3 |
Tucker should be able to secure a deal through at least his age-36 season, and it’s not hard for him to argue he should go longer than either Teixeira or Fielder. Let’s go with 10 years at about $35 million each before adding in this season’s salary.
2024 extension projection: Eight years, $204 million
2025 salary: $16.5 million
2025 extension projection: 11 years, $366 million
Dylan Cease (29)
Last season, Cease and Zac Gallen entered in a similar spot: at the same age, earning about the same in arbitration, in line for about the same extension. Then, while Gallen had a nice season, Cease posted another top-five finish in the Cy Young balloting. He’s placed himself in the same group as the top earning starters from this past winter.
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3 ▼ |
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2025 |
29 |
4.8 |
12.8 |
17.8 |
||||
|
2025 |
30-35 |
3.7 |
11.8 |
24.2 |
6 |
193.8 |
32.3 |
|
|
2015 |
31-36 |
5.6 |
11.6 |
19.1 |
6 |
155.0 |
35.1 |
|
|
2025 |
31-38 |
3.4 |
10.1 |
17.6 |
8 |
218.0 |
27.3 |
Lester sets the high end for Cease, and that comp suggests Cease can in fact get more than Burnes just did from the Diamondbacks. Both point to a deal buying out six free-agent years. Let’s estimate those at just under $33 million and add in this year’s salary.
2024 extension projection: Seven years, $140 million
2025 salary: $13.75 million
2025 extension projection: Seven years, $210 million
Zac Gallen (29)
Right now, Gallen isn’t quite on the same level as Cease.
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3
|
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2016 |
30-35 |
4.0 |
9.4 |
17.0 |
6 |
130.0 |
29.0 |
|
|
2016 |
30-34 |
3.0 |
12.0 |
18.7 |
5 |
110.0 |
29.5 |
|
|
2025 |
29 |
2.8 |
12.2 |
15.6 |
This sets him up for roughly the 2025 version of Cueto’s deal in free agency: six years and $174 million, before adding this year’s salary.
2024 extension projection: Seven years, $140 million
2025 salary: $13.5 million
2025 extension projection: Seven years, $187 million
Framber Valdez (31)
Valdez has had just as much success as Cease and Gallen; the issue for him is he’s two years older than those guys. Starters who hit the open market entering their age-32 season seldom sign for more than three or four years. (The exceptions are guys like Zack Greinke, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, who all owned Cy Young awards.)
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3
|
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2016 |
30-35 |
4.0 |
9.4 |
17.0 |
6 |
130.0 |
29.0 |
|
|
2016 |
30-34 |
3.0 |
12.0 |
18.7 |
5 |
110.0 |
29.5 |
|
|
2025 |
31 |
3.6 |
12.4 |
16.8 |
Let’s stick with the same comps as Gallen but only for four free-agent years rather than six.
2024 extension projection: Five years, $105 million
2025 salary: $18 million
2025 extension projection: Five years, $134 million
Devin Williams (30)
Just looking at the raw numbers isn’t charitable to Williams, who on a per-appearance basis is right there with recent closers who signed four-year deals like Raisel Iglesias and Tanner Scott. (Williams missed roughly two-thirds of last season.)
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR2
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2022 |
32-35 |
2.0 |
5.0 |
4.0 |
58 |
16.4 |
|
|
2025 |
30 |
1.6 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
72.0 |
18.0 |
|
|
2025 |
30 |
0.8 |
2.6 |
Given that no position gets paid on reputation quite the way closer does, Williams could still be in line for a deal that rivals Scott’s, before adding in this year’s salary.
2024 extension projection: N/A
2025 salary: $8.6 million
2025 extension projection: Five years, $80 million
(Top photo of Dylan Cease: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)
Sports
Cubs look to build on offensive breakout against struggling Blue Jays starter Patrick Corbin
MLB faces DOJ investigation over Pride hats controversy
Major League Baseball is under a DOJ investigation following controversy over Pride-themed hats. The San Francisco Giants pitchers wrote Bible verses on rainbow caps, prompting an MLB warning and a DOJ statement questioning a ‘double standard’ for ‘Black Lives Matter’ patches versus religious inscriptions. This follows the York Revolution forfeiting a game due to players refusing Pride jerseys, highlighting free speech and religious liberty issues within sports.
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I’m glad we didn’t take the run line yesterday in the baseball game. We had the under eight for the game between the White Sox and Tigers, and it ended 4-3. The Tigers did pull off the win, but as I mentioned, it wasn’t justified that Detroit should be -250, even with Tarik Skubal on the mound. Today, we shift to the Chicago National League team as the Cubs host the Blue Jays.
The Toronto Blue Jays are a team I’ve written about probably more than most squads in the league. That’s not a complaint or anything, it just happens that I see a lot of value in their games. Most of that is because when they are favorites, they aren’t big favorites given their 37-39 record and rash of injuries to their pitching staff. When they are dogs, they are usually pretty small pups, offering little value, but that means the opposing favorite isn’t too high of a price.
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Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the eighth inning during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on Saturday, May 30, 2026 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Ali Overstreet/MLB Photos via Getty Images) (Ali Overstreet/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
The Jays were blitzed by the Cubs yesterday, and they will need a strong start today from Patrick Corbin. The once highly touted hurler is just 2-3 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He had a decent year with the Rangers, but seems to be struggling again, as he did in his time with the Nationals. Corbin is a little more reliable on the road, given that he has pitched 10 more innings and has allowed three fewer runs on the road than at home, leading to a 3.57 ERA. He hasn’t given the Blue Jays much lately, going just 11.2 innings in three starts and allowing 11 runs on 17 hits. Cubs hitters are very strong against him, batting .316 against him.
The Cubs are one of the more frustrating teams to watch this season. Perhaps that is me just saying that as a fan of the team, but they’ve had two 10-game winning streaks, and also a losing streak of 10 games. Since May 9, the team has gone 13-24. Sure, some of that can be attributed to injuries to their pitching staff — they have only two healthy starters from the beginning of the year. But, most of this needs to be placed on the hitting of the club. Nico Hoerner is batting .238, Ian Happ is at .228, and Dansby Swanson is a pathetic .177.
Toronto Blue Jays’ Ernie Clement hits a three-run home run during the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles in Toronto on June 6, 2026. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press)
Still, the Cubs broke out the bats yesterday, and Pete Crow-Armstrong looks like the five-tool player from the first half of last season. If they can get some pitching, maybe they will be the dominant team we saw earlier this year. Today’s starter is Colin Rea, who has not been very good this month. He has made three starts, allowed 19 hits, and 13 earned runs over 14.2 innings pitched. He has, however, been much better at home with a 3.03 ERA in five starts (six appearances). Blue Jays hitters haven’t seen much of him, but are hitting .176 against Rea in 17 at-bats.
There is a clear player prop to play in this one. However, the bad news is that he is not on the list of options, so you might need to request or find him in a different book other than DraftKings. Michael Conforto is 12-for-36 against Corbin with seven extra-base hits, including five homers. I’d play him at 2+ total bases and at one homer as long as you can get +200 or better for the bases, and +700 for the homer prop.
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Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after getting hit by a pitch in the eighth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field on May 17, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Michael Hirschuber/Getty Images)
If you can’t find it, or they never post it (but I have to imagine they will give options once he is added to the lineup, and he absolutely should be, given his history), I still have a play. I’m taking the Cubs at -130 here. Rea isn’t the most reliable, but he should at least be decent here, and the Cubs will have the fresher bullpen. Give me the Cubs to win this one.
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For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024
Sports
Dodgers’ walk-off stuns Orioles as Dalton Rushing helps cap wild comeback
Dalton Rushing was frustrated. He just chased a slider in the dirt — again. And this time, the game was on the line. The Dodgers were down to their last out. He was down to his last strike.
So he took a moment, took a breath, and looked to the Dodgers dugout.
The first person he spotted was Mookie Betts, who had just cut the Orioles’ lead to a run with a solo homer. Betts was locked in with Rushing, brimming with confidence, cheering him on.
“For a guy like that, a guy that’s lived in that moment, he’s succeeded in that moment, he’s failed in that moment, he knows what it feels like, it’s pretty special,” Rushing recounted.
Rushing’s eyes traveled along the railing, noting his teammates all on the top step, all relying on him.
He dug into the box, expecting the slider that Baltimore’s Ryan Helsley threw next — it was high, for a ball. Then Rushing got a fastball he could drive. And he did not miss.
The next moments in the Dodgers’ 6-5 walk-off win Friday were chaos.
Rushing lined a tying single into right field, giving Alex Call time to score from second. Call slid across the plate as the throw from Orioles right fielder Tyler O’Neill took for a long hop to catcher Samuel Basallo.
Basallo misjudged it, taking an unhurried shuffle up the line, before the ball glanced off his glove and rolled toward the Dodgers dugout.
Third base coach Dino Ebel waved home Ryan Ward, who scored standing up.
Manager Dave Roberts, who looked down at his card when the throw was in the air, was already thinking through extra innings when the crowd erupted again. He heard field coordinator Bob Geren shouting something like, “The run counts.”
The Dodgers (49-27) ran onto the field and swarmed Rushing, who had just reached second. They jumped and yelled as the Dodgers Stadium lights flashed around them.
“It was good to get Freddie [Freeman] a night off for being the guy in the middle for a change, you know?” Rushing said with a grin. “No, it’s a great feeling, and I think it honestly just feels great that we won that baseball game.”
For several innings, it looked like they wouldn’t.
Dalton Rushing celebrates after hitting a run-scoring single in the ninth to help lift the Dodgers to a 6-5 walk-off win over the Baltimore Orioles at Dodger Stadium.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
The Dodgers had jumped out to an early 3-0 lead, on a two-run single from Max Muncy in the first inning and an RBI double from Andy Pages in the second. Then their scoring dried up.
Rushing was having as frustrating of a night as anyone, with a line out and three strikeouts.
His first strikeout was part of a brutal sequence. The Dodgers loaded the bases with no outs in the third. Then Ward, Rushing and Alex Freeland, all went down swinging.
Rushing struck out on a slider in the dirt. And Orioles starter Trey Gibson got him to bite on the same putaway pitch in the fifth.
Rushing’s reactions steadily grew more animated, on the field and in the dugout.
Mookie Betts celebrates as he runs the bases after hitting a solo home run in the ninth inning Friday against the Orioles.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
Alex Freeland signals safe after sliding past Baltimore catcher Samuel Basallo to score on a double by Andy Pages in the second inning Friday.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
“He plays with a fire under his ass,” Freeland said. “He gets after it. He expects nothing but the best for himself day in and day out, and that comes with it.”
Said Roberts: “After he … vents, he does a good job of collecting himself to get back into the next play, the next at-bat, catching.”
On Friday, he was catching Roki Sasaki, who faced just one batter over the minimum through five innings. But during the third time through the order, the Orioles finally figured him out and hit back-to-back home runs.
With two outs and a runner on, Sasaki yanked a splitter to the inside edge of the strike zone to Gunnar Henderson, who lifted it over the wall in right field. Pete Alonso then homered to left-center field on an inside fastball about belt high to tie the score.
“I thought he threw the baseball really well,” Roberts said. “I liked the way he competed. The fastball command was good. He was fantastic tonight.”
The Orioles (35-42) pulled ahead against the Dodgers bullpen. Will Klein surrendered a seventh-inning single to Jackson that sent two baserunners, including one inherited from Dodgers left-hander Jack Dreyer, across the plate.
Kyle Hurt and Blake Treinen threw clean eighth and ninth innings.
Finally, in the bottom of the ninth, Betts ended the Dodgers’ scoring drought. Then Muncy — later replaced by the pinch-running Call — and Ward drew walks.
With two outs, Rushing stepped up to the plate, fell behind in the count 0-2 and reset.
“I look in the dugout, and all those guys care about is that next pitch, and the next pitch after that, and the next pitch after that,” Rushing said. “They just want you to win one pitch at a time.”
So, that’s what he did.
Sports
World Cup Red Cards: 2026 Has More Red Cards Than Each Of Last 2 World Cups
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The referees have been active at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
It took only 27 games across seven days for officials to allocate more red cards than they did during the entire 2018 and 2022 FIFA World Cups. The record for red cards in a single World Cup stands at 28 in 2006. These moments led to penalty kicks, set pieces outside the box and offenses capitalizing on shorthanded opponents.
FOX Sports rules analyst Mark Clattenburg weighed in on the increase in red cards.
“Players are well-behaved, but they’re just making mistakes in and around the penalty area, in maybe a panic,” Clattenburg said. “And not saying the players getting inside the penalty area and conceding the penalties are more than happy to commit a foul and commit a red card, knowing that they miss the next match, but now that they have 26 players on the roster, there are plenty of players to certainly cover [those] positions.”
The record for red cards in a single World Cup is 28 in the 2006 edition of the tournament, and nine of those were straight red cards.
- 2026: 6 red cards (all 6 straight reds)
- 2022: 4 red cards (1 straight red)
- 2018: 4 red cards (2 straight reds)
- 2014: 10 red cards (7 straight reds)
- 2010: 17 red cards (9 straight reds)
- 2006: 28 red cards (9 straight reds)
Here’s a look at every red card and the impact they’ve had on the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Miguel Almiron was sent off right before halftime in Paraguay’s match against Türkiye after a VAR check determined that he said something while covering his mouth to an opposing player.
Madibo made an ill-timed tackle in the midfield on Canada’s Ismaël Koné. Koné was ultimately stretchered off the pitch as Qatar was reduced to nine men.
With Canada taking an early 2-0 lead, Homam Ahmed’s desperate tackle on Tajon Buchanan just outside the box only made matters worse. Canada scored moments later against a 10-man Qatar side to increase the advantage to 3-0.
Tarik Muharemović tackled Swiss striker Breel Embolo on the precipice of the 18-yard box, preventing a one-on-one between Embolo and the goalkeeper. Switzerland didn’t convert the ensuing set piece, but with Bosnia and Herzegovina down to 10 men, the Swiss went on to score three late goals and close out a 4-1 victory.
As tempers boiled in the opening match, Mexico made it a three-red-card affair. César Montes took down Khuliso Mudau in an attacking position in the second minute of injury time. South Africa couldn’t capitalize on the set piece, and the match ended with a 2-0 Mexico victory.
Themba Zwane was sent off for making contact with Brian Gutiérrez in the head during a South African attack. He put his team in a stick situation, down to nine men. Zwane’s suspension was extended from the normal one game to three after FIFA ruled it fell under Article 14’s rule for violent contact.
In the 2026 FIFA World Cup opening match, Sithole took down Mexico’s Brian Gutierrez just outside the box, earning a red card as the last line of defense between Gutierrez and the goalkeeper. Sithole’s red card led to a free kick from a threatening position, but Mexico couldn’t convert. However, in the 67th minute, Mexico capitalized on the one-man advantage as Raúl Jiménez scored his first World Cup goal.
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