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Players in Japan could push for free agency change, opening door for earlier moves to MLB

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Players in Japan could push for free agency change, opening door for earlier moves to MLB

In late July, Tony Clark, the executive director of the Major League Baseball Players Association, visited Japan to announce support for players in the country’s top league, Nippon Professional Baseball. Japanese ballplayers are trying to take control of their name, image and likeness rights, or NIL — a fight familiar to college athletes in the United States. The NPB clubs hold those rights, and therefore, the final say over the endorsement deals players make.

But NIL is not the only battle underway for the Japan Professional Baseball Players Association. It may not even be the most ambitious. NPB players, who are not known for aggressive labor tactics, are pushing to become free agents earlier in their careers — including a change that would allow players to join Major League Baseball sooner.

To get it done, the JPBPA is preparing a legal challenge to the league’s reserve system on antitrust grounds. Tak Yamazaki, outside counsel to the Japan Professional Baseball Players Association, said he could not specify exactly when the action will be brought, but that it would be this year.

“It will happen soon,” Yamazaki said.

Players in Japan have two forms of free agency: domestic and international. Domestic free agency, the freedom to switch to another NPB team, is achieved after seven or eight years in the league, depending on whether the player was drafted out of college or high school.

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But to leave as a free agent for a foreign league like MLB, the wait is nine years. Players can depart sooner, but only if their team posts them for bidding. Instead, NPB players want what’s in place in MLB: free agency after a blanket six years, regardless of entry or destination.

The two-pronged push for change is remarkable for a players’ association that does not have the same might as its U.S. counterpart. Club owners hold most of the power in NPB, in part because labor unions in Japan are generally not as strong as they are in the United States. Coincidentally, next month marks the 20th anniversary of the only strike NPB players have held in their history, a two-day effort to stave off club contraction.

A second NPB player strike does not appear to be in the offing any time soon. But the JPBPA regards the body that oversees antitrust law, Japan’s Fair Trade Commission, as perhaps the best vehicle to attack the reserve system. That’s a relatively new development: in 2019, the commission issued a report that gave the nation’s athletes newfound leverage.

“There was legal argument whether antitrust law is applied to sports matters,” Yamazaki said. “They changed the interpretation, making it clear that the antitrust law will apply. … That has changed the whole landscape.”

One smaller test case in front of the commission has already gone the JPBPA’s way, leading to the repeal of an unwritten rule in NPB in 2020. The “Tazawa Rule” was named for former big-league pitcher Junichi Tazawa, who had been effectively barred from playing in NPB at the end of his time playing in the U.S. because he had skipped NPB’s amateur draft to pursue a major-league career.

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A person briefed on management’s thinking who was not authorized to speak publicly said NPB has been preparing for this next challenge, and that the league has proposed reducing the time to domestic free agency. The offer did not include a reduction with international free agency.

“Six and seven years was on the table at the end of January,” the person said. “If they were willing to negotiate several months ago, I think we would have been able to successfully come to an agreement before Opening Day.”

Yamazaki said the league’s offer was more complex than a straight reduction.

The other change NPB players seek, to their NIL rights, creates a contrast to the U.S., where NIL is a relatively settled matter in pro leagues. But it’s been a dominant topic in college athletics, reshaping the NCAA.

The JPBPA intends to continue to pursue player NIL rights via negotiation. Theoretically, though, the players could also take up an antitrust fight in that space, too. The topic is longstanding. The players sued over publicity rights on different grounds back in 2002, and years later, the case wound up in the Supreme Court of Japan, where the league prevailed.

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But that was before 2019. An antitrust case in the U.S. was notably at the center of vast change of NIL for college athletes, when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against the NCAA in 2021.

NPB teams take a cut of player endorsements, and the clubs are protective of their own sponsors.

“There will be a certain amount of commission, and also it is not absolutely free (choice),” Yamazaki said. “For example, if a company that is offering an endorsement deal to the player is a competitor of club sponsors, it can be denied. Also, for example, setting up a YouTube channel: some clubs allow it, but some clubs don’t.”

The person briefed on NPB management thinking contended that because the clubs have been successful in merchandising, the current setup allows players to maximize their income. Clark, meanwhile, believes players can unlock greater value in group licensing. International unions have “rarely, if at all … taken advantage of or realized the value of their name, image and likeness rights,” he said.

“We believe there’s a better opportunity on the heels of (Shohei) Ohtani coming here, and on the heels of nearly a third of our membership at the major-league level being international, to build on that in a way that hasn’t happened yet,” Clark continued.

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The MLBPA is billing its involvement as a business opportunity, not just union camaraderie. When Clark traveled to the city of Sapporo last month, he announced that the MLBPA and a licensing business it owns about 20 percent of, OneTeam Partners, are going “to support Japanese players in reclaiming their NIL rights from Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) and to manage these rights in the future through the creation of a commercial program, run by OneTeam International,” per a memo the MLBPA sent to its players.


MLBPA head Tony Clark traveled to Japan to assist in union efforts there. (Daniel Shirey / MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The JPBPA became a union in 1985. That’s almost two decades after the MLBPA created a group licensing program in 1966. Big leaguers at the time quickly began a boycott of Topps, in effort to force the trading card company to deal with the players en masse.

Today, that licensing program brings in huge dollars for players and the union. A financial statement the MLBPA filed with the Department of Labor lists $152 million in net licensing royalties for 2023, although that figure doesn’t account for every stream.

The work requires enforcement. Just last week, the PA’s business arm sued the Pittsburgh Pirates and the gas station chain Sheetz for alleged unlicensed use of player images. A settlement has been tentatively agreed to. But the income has ripple effects: the funds help players prepare for work stoppages, creating bargaining leverage.

Clark acknowledged the MLBPA’s support for the Japanese players comes with costs to players stateside, but said players will benefit stateside as well.

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“Someone may look at it from the outside in and suggest, ‘OK, well, that really doesn’t affect me,’ but the truth is, the global sports community is more connected than people think,” Clark said. “Yes, there is a financial investment. Yes, there is a sweat equity component of this.”

Per the MLBPA memo, OneTeam’s international division, which was started this year, is also in partnership talks with football and soccer unions across England, Italy, France, as well as the International Rugby Players Association and various unions across Australia and New Zealand. The memo did not touch, however, the JPBPA’s reserve-system battle — an omission perhaps made out of sensitivity to another union’s bargaining positions.

Cultural chasms

When the MLBPA started its group licensing program, the union was run by the late Marvin Miller, an economist who rose to prominence with the steelworkers and built the PA into a titan. Miller’s son, Peter, is a longtime resident of Japan who served as a consultant to the MLBPA in Japan from 1994 to 2011.

Peter Miller said the relationship between players and owners in his time was “very different from the adversarial relationship that is considered essential in U.S labor-management relations.”

“For example, when they called a strike, they expressed remorse to the fans,” Miller said. “Because it was just really not part of the culture at all.”

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Yet, at the same time, the JPBPA has also stood out amongst unions in the country according to Matt Nichol, a lecturer who studies sports law and labor in the College of Business at Central Queensland University in Australia.

“Even though the Japanese players’ union doesn’t have the strike history that the MLBPA does, and there wasn’t that period of industrial action from the formation of the MLBPA through to the strike in 1994, for Japan, the Players Association is quite a militant union,” Nichol said. “Litigating over NIL … taking on the league when they tried to reduce the teams from 12 to 10. Those actions by the Players Association are quite important, and quite dramatic in the context of Japanese labor relations. So the JPBPA is becoming more assertive.”

The differences between the two countries’ systems are vast. For example: There is no set term for the collective bargaining agreement in NPB, creating a rolling nature of negotiations, as opposed to the five-year terms MLB players and owners agree to. NPB players also don’t always explore free agency, even when eligible.

“Players, when they become free agents, don’t always change teams, so there’s not a huge free-agent market like in the U.S.,” Nichol said. “In the last 10, 15 years, players have been moving domestically a little bit more with free agency, but it’s nothing like the U.S.”

In some ways, NPB operates “probably a bit fairer system” than what’s in place in MLB, according to Nichol, who noted teams rarely release players midseason. NPB also has a smaller gap between the highest and lowest paid players and has long provided housing accommodations to minor leaguers — a contrast to the U.S., where minor leaguers took up a public fight for housing in recent years.

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The person briefed on NPB management’s thinking made similar points, and argued it was folly to compare the reserve systems in the two countries.

“We only have one minor-league level,” the person said. “If you sign out of college, on average, you will make it (to the major-league level) in less than two years. That, plus seven years, means about nine years.

“But in Major League Baseball, in America’s case, you have to spend about an average of four years in the minors. Plus six years free agency. So, 10 years. Although it’s a long reserve system, you would spend less number of years at the minor-league level in Japan.”

NPB players today sometimes do leave for the U.S. sooner than nine years, but only when their club chooses to post them for bidding. And the best players bring NPB teams hefty payments. The Los Angeles Dodgers, for example, paid the Orix Buffaloes $50.6 million to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto last offseason, on top of the $325 million the Dodgers committed to the pitcher in salary over 12 years.

The posting agreement — which determines that club-to-club fee structure — is technically separate from the reserve system. But, if the NPB reserve system changes, there’s a clause allowing the posting agreement to be changed. The posting agreement is actually a deal amongst three parties: MLB, MLBPA and NPB. The players in Japan are not formally a party, but Yamazaki said the MLPBA has well represented their interests.

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Former MLB pitcher Junichi Tazawa’s case helped set a precedent for player movement in Japan. (Chris Covatta / Getty Images)

More than the number of years to free agency, what might be most pressing to NPB players is who decides it. The MLBPA toppled club control over the reserve system in the 1970s.

“Our reserve system, just like back in pre-1976 MLB, has been unilaterally imposed by the clubs,” Yamazaki said. “That’s the biggest difference between the MLBPA and the JPBPA.”

Working in the JPBPA’s favor could be the success it has had in front of Japan’s antitrust administration already.

The Tazawa Rule forbade a player who skips the league’s amateur draft from joining NPB until at least two years following the conclusion of his career abroad. It was intended to deter players from bolting for MLB. Tazawa made 388 appearances in MLB from 2009-18, mostly for the Boston Red Sox,  but he could not play in NPB once returning home.

In 2020, the JFTC found the NPB had likely violated the law. NPB repealed the rule during the investigation, so no discipline was issued. Now, the JPBPA could try to repeat that playbook: using the complaint to pressure change.

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Money on the table?

Shohei Ohtani’s global sponsorship portfolio, like his dual talent as a pitcher and hitter, is unique. For the general player population in Japan, there’s a question of how robust a market they would find if they do take over their NIL.

Josh Persell, who runs JP Sports Advisors, an agency that specializes in bringing players from NPB to MLB and vice versa, said that the endorsement rules in the nation limit what players can do, but only to an extent.

“The licensing landscape is far different than it is here. It’s a smaller country, there are less brands, companies, and categories participating,” said Persell. “The league does well with their general marketing campaigns, but it’s on a smaller economic scale. Is there a broader licensing play which rises the tide and benefits the league, the owners and the players?”

An executive who brokers endorsements for NPB players said the league’s top players make only $150,000 in endorsements annually. But, the executive believes more opportunities could open if clubs relinquished the rights.

“Yes it’s cheap,” said the executive, who was granted anonymity because of the sensitivity of the business dealings, “but that’s what it is.”

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A second marketing executive, one who arranges sponsorships for MLB players, said consistently good players in the States make at least double, adding that one or two players per team might reach seven figures.

Peter Miller said the licensing rights have long been desired by Japanese players.

“The Japanese baseball clubs are all potentially advertising entities,” Miller said. “It’s expected that the Yomiuri Giants will support all the Yomiuri newspapers and be identified in pictures and with their uniforms and everything. When you look at it in that way, it’s a little bit hard to imagine an owner wrapping his mind around the idea of a player having his own image rights.

“From a Japanese point of view, it just doesn’t compute.”

Between the two pursuits, Yamazaki thinks NPB players have arrived at a crucial moment.

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“Absolutely,” he said. “The biggest ones came at the same time.”

Although Yamazaki declined to reveal exactly when the JPBPA plans to file its challenge to the reserve system, he did share the timing of a different event: the union will celebrate the 20th anniversary of the two-day strike in December.

(Top photo of Yomiuri Giants players celebrating a win earlier this year: Kyodo via AP Images)

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WNBA great Sue Bird says Caitlin Clark is playoff nightmare for other teams: 'Trouble for everybody else'

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WNBA great Sue Bird says Caitlin Clark is playoff nightmare for other teams: 'Trouble for everybody else'

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If Sue Bird were still playing in the WNBA, there’s one team and, more specifically, one player she would not want to see in the playoffs: the Indiana Fever and first overall pick Caitlin Clark.

The four-time WNBA champion and 13-time All-Star offered a warning to other teams in the league during a recent episode of her podcast with Megan Rapinoe, “A Touch More,” saying that Clark’s dominance in her rookie year makes her a big threat in the playoffs. 

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Sue Bird looks on prior to the game between the United States and South Africa at Soldier Field on September 24, 2023, in Chicago, Illinois.  (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

“What I’ve learned in my WNBA experience is pace of play trumps physicality, it trumps size, it can trump experience,” she began. 

“In 2018 and 2020, the years we won, that was our whole mantra – pace, pace, pace, pace. And what I see in Caitlin, what I see in Kelsey Mitchell, they’re just ramming it down people’s throats. And it’s really hard – it can have your head spinning.” 

Bird said that Clark continues to impress this season, and it’s not something she expects to see trail off any time soon. 

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“She’s gonna break records nonstop for the next couple of years. It’s just going to be a constant record break.”

But just as she predicts that Clark will continue to grow, Bird said that players in the league should expect the same. 

Caitlin Clark crossover

Caitlin Clark #22 of the Indiana Fever dribbles the ball during the game against the Phoenix Mercury on July 12, 2024, at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.   (Justin Casterline/NBAE via Getty Images)

CAITLIN CLARK THANKS REFEREE FOR TECHNICAL FOUL IN FEVER’S DOMINATING WIN OVER SEATTLE

“The only thing that I find most interesting is at the start of the season everybody had their panties in a twist over Caitlin getting picked up full court and Caitlin being denied, and what I’m not surprised by is naturally during a WNBA season, teams and players start to get a little tired, you’re kind of in the doldrums of the every day or every other day is a game and it’s hard to keep that discipline to guard a player like that. So, I’m not surprised it dropped off.” 

Clark recently broke the WNBA’s rookie assists record, and Bird believes that the numbers the former Iowa star is putting up midseason are because she’s adjusting well to the physicality of the game and playing smarter. 

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“She’s definitely getting used to it which is, you know, trouble for everybody else that’s why I don’t want to see her [in the playoffs].” 

Caitlin Clark reacts

Caitlin Clark, #22 of the Indiana Fever, reacts in the game against the Phoenix Mercury at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on August 16, 2024. (Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

Clark has scored at least 20 points in five of her last six games. She is averaging 23.7 points on 47% shooting from the field, and 11.7 assists over that span. Indiana has one game this week at Minnesota on Saturday as the team looks to continue to solidify a playoff spot.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

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News Analysis: ‘Not ideal.’ As Dodgers wait on pitching reinforcements, October questions still linger

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News Analysis: ‘Not ideal.’ As Dodgers wait on pitching reinforcements, October questions still linger

On three occasions Wednesday afternoon, Dave Roberts uttered the same phrase while discussing the shorthanded state of the Dodgers’ injury-plagued pitching staff.

“Not ideal,” the manager said.

And with October on the horizon, time is running short for the situation to improve.

With a sweep of the Seattle Mariners this week, the Dodgers did maintain the best record in the majors at 76-52. They also moved four games clear of the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League West standings, their biggest division lead in more than two weeks.

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Those marks, however, belie the tenuous state of what remains a patchwork starting rotation. They do little to answer the questions awaiting the Dodgers’ still uncertain potential pitching plans come the playoffs.

As things currently stand, it’s anyone’s guess what the Dodgers’ rotation might look like a month from now.

Roberts, who was peppered with pitching questions before Wednesday’s game, was no exception.

“Short answer,” Roberts said when asked if the Dodgers are still facing “too many” variables on the mound long-term, “yes.”

At the moment, the two primary linchpins are Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto — the almost half-billion-dollar duo the Dodgers acquired this winter hoping to avoid this exact fate.

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Glasnow and Yamamoto have been good when healthy, but both are currently on the injured list and not expected to return until next month.

On Wednesday, Yamamoto threw his second simulated game since a June shoulder injury, pitching two innings at Dodger Stadium in what Roberts described as a “big step” for the rookie Japanese right-hander.

“I think at this point, everything’s starting to get all together,” Yamamoto said through his interpreter.

Still, the 25-year-old has several boxes to check before returning, including another three-inning sim game next week, then a minor-league rehab stint that could last another week or two.

That puts Yamamoto — who was 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA before suffering a strained rotator cuff — on track for a mid-September return.

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Does that leave enough time for him to ramp up before the playoffs?

“It’s obviously not ideal,” Roberts said. “But I still think getting him back to health and building him up is [what will give us] our best ball club. So we’re going to make the most of it.”

Glasnow could find himself in an unexpectedly similar spot.

After going on the injured list with elbow tendinitis last weekend, the right-hander had still yet to resume throwing as of Wednesday. Because of that, Roberts acknowledged Glasnow’s return will likely stretch “beyond” the 15-day timeline in which he was initially expected back.

Roberts downplayed any growing concern about Glasnow’s long-term status.

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“I know he’s probably frustrated,” the manager said. “But you’ve got to listen to your body.”

Nonetheless, the longer it takes Glasnow to return, the more his situation will start to mirror Yamamoto’s — leaving potentially little time for him to rejoin the rotation and ramp back up before the playoffs.

“He was fighting to stay off the IL and wants to be there for his teammates,” Roberts said, searching for optimism. “But I think with the build-up that he’s had, [missing] a couple weeks isn’t going to cut too much into what he’s already been built up to do.”

The Dodgers can only hope so.

Beyond Glasnow and Yamamoto, the team’s other pitching options represent more of a mixed bag.

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While top deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty has been solid in his first four Dodgers starts — he’s gone 3-0 with a 3.22 ERA and 29 strikeouts — he has only completed six innings in one of those outings, and bemoaned inconsistent command Wednesday night that drove up his pitch count.

“I feel like I came over in a good spot, and then kind of hit probably the weirdest funk I’ve been in all year, in terms of just like nibbling, not quite getting deep enough in games, just not quite being as sharp,” Flaherty said, after a 5⅔ innings start against the Mariners.

“I’ve still been able to get guys out, still make pitches, which is good. But if you execute [better], you end up getting deeper into games. So it’s really close. It’s just a matter of continuing to work and turning starts like tonight into seven innings.”

The team’s next best fall-back options are Gavin Stone and Clayton Kershaw.

Stone, a rookie right-hander who was an All-Star candidate early this year, has started to bounce back from his midseason malaise, but still has an ERA over 5.00 since the start of July.

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Kershaw, meanwhile, continues to defy his 36-year-old age, having given up just two total runs in three starts this month. However, after undergoing shoulder surgery in the offseason, his diminished stuff has often looked reminiscent to the end of last year, when he managed to navigate the regular season before getting shelled by the Diamondbacks in the playoffs.

Ideally, the Dodgers would likely prefer a Glasnow-Yamamoto-Flaherty playoff rotation, with Kershaw and/or Stone providing extra starting depth in a longer series.

If the Dodgers suffer any more injury setbacks among that group, though, their only other alternatives might be Walker Buehler or Bobby Miller — neither of whom have looked sharp this year returning from their own injuries.

That’s why, even with October a little more than a month away, Roberts continued to express caution about postseason pitching plans; crossing his fingers that the last month of the season will produce better injury luck than most of this campaign has so far.

“We’re sort of going through it right now,” Roberts said. “I guess if the ship is righted, then I’d rather it be right now, and get the guys that we know have been good to pitch well. But not ideal is probably fair.”

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Hollinger: The 5 best under-the-radar moves from the NBA offseason

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Hollinger: The 5 best under-the-radar moves from the NBA offseason

Welcome to the dog days. Most of the NBA will spend the next few weeks lounging on deck chairs near various distant seas before the slow march back into playing shape begins after Labor Day. Before you know it, we’ll start a whole new cycle of October promises.

Before we get to that point, it’s time to assess what’s already happened. Free agency went fast, and then slow, and there was only one true blockbuster move — Paul George heading to Philly. (I say this with the caveat that my publishing this piece all but assures an out-of-nowhere blockbuster upsets the apple cart soon.)

Nonetheless, the summer featured a sizable number of mid-sized transactions that either went under the radar or weren’t fully appreciated, and I’d argue an equally large number fell firmly in the not-great-Bob category and were equally underrated for their … underwhelmingness. This week, I’m going to delve into both categories. However, to stave off accusations of being an angry curmudgeon for at least one more news cycle, I’m going to start with the positive and focus on the offseason’s best under-the-radar moves.

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Before we begin, remember that I’m correcting for public perception here. For instance, the Philadelphia 76ers getting George was awesome, but I think the Sixers have already gotten their flowers for that.

Similarly, the Oklahoma City Thunder made out like bandits this offseason; suffice to say, I believe the impact of their two big gets (Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein) is just as large as everyone thinks. Finally, Jalen Brunson’s extension is going to pay massive dividends for the New York Knicks in the coming years, but that’s already received plentiful (and well-earned) coverage.

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Instead, here are five other moves I think deserve a lot more attention. Four of them get bonus points for requiring some relatively out-of-the-box thinking, while the fifth happened during the Paris Olympics, so some people may have missed it.

Warriors’ Klay Thompson sign-and-trade

The fact that people seem to think Golden State had a bad offseason is a tell to me that they don’t get how much lemonade the Warriors made out of Thompson’s departure … and that re-signing him at a big number had a chance to be pure lemons.

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No, they didn’t get George and Lauri Markkanen, but those were low-odds moonshots. Further down the talent curve, however, look at what they got out of Thompson leaving for Dallas.

Rather than overpay a declining player for the vibes, the Warriors parlayed him into two different players (Buddy Hield and Kyle Anderson) who combined will make less money than Thompson and a random minimum-contract guy. There’s a good chance each individually will matter more to the Warriors than Thompson would have too. (Thompson seems like a good fit in Dallas, incidentally … but Golden State is not Dallas.)

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For starters, you could hardly design a better Thompson replacement than Hield. The Warriors replaced a 41 percent career 3-point shooter with a 40 percent career 3-point shooter, and Hield is three years younger, less destructively thirsty inside the arc and more capable of guarding the perimeter. (Hield isn’t exactly a DPOY candidate, but Thompson has reached a point where he mostly has to be hidden on fours.)

And as they say in infomercials … but wait, there’s more! Golden State also acquired Anderson from the Minnesota Timberwolves. Slo-Mo is a tough fit for some rosters because of his limited floor spacing, but in a Warriors system that’s all about reading, reacting and IQ, he should be perfect. He averaged 3.5 assists for every turnover last year as a point forward in Minnesota and likely can fill a similar role when Stephen Curry is off the floor. Additionally, he was by far the Wolves’ best Luka Dončić defender in the Western Conference finals.

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These moves aren’t going to put the Warriors back in the title chase on their own, but turning Thompson into these two players (and cutting Chris Paul, I should add) had two other benefits. First, it allowed Golden State to sign De’Anthony Melton while staying below the tax apron. Second and more importantly, it didn’t burn any of their draft-pick capital for an in-season blockbuster if one comes their way: The three separate sign-and-trades netted out to only cost them cash and a 2031 second-round pick swap.

Rockets’ draft-pick recalibration

The one deal from this summer that has the highest ratio of “crazy high upside” to “people aren’t really talking about this” is Houston’s ancillary piece of the Mikal Bridges trade between Brooklyn and New York. Obviously, the Knicks and Nets made their own fascinating bets, but Houston is the side that seems to have walked away with something for nothing.

The Rockets took an unprotected pick and an unprotected swap that were owed to them by Brooklyn and sent them back to the Nets, in return for different unprotected picks that were owed by the Phoenix Suns. The trade gave the Nets a logic to tank that didn’t previously exist and paved the way for them to deal Bridges, Sag for Flagg and get on with their lives, but it came at a steep price.

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The Rockets didn’t just trade like for like; they got some extra goodies on top. For instance, Houston sent a Brooklyn 2026 unprotected first-round pick back to the Nets in return for Phoenix’s unprotected first in 2029 … but there was more. The Suns got some added vig with the ability to swap that pick for Dallas’ unprotected first that same year, and further to swap their own pick in 2029 for whatever of the two is left. In other words, the Rockets are guaranteed the two best of their own pick, Dallas’ or Phoenix’s that June.

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Similarly, the Rockets exchanged a 2025 pick swap with the Nets for a more complicated (and less alluring, I should say) pick swap that likely will let them swap Oklahoma City’s 2025 first (which they already own) for Phoenix’s; realistically, that projects as a likely move up in the back half of the first round of, say, five to 10 spots.

But, again, that swap of swaps (you following this?) also came with a big extra cost: The Rockets got Phoenix’s 2027 unprotected first too.
Thus, the Rockets started with an unprotected first and an unprotected swap from Brooklyn and ended up with two unprotected firsts from Phoenix and two swaps.

What makes this so cool for Houston is that the Suns, despite their own underrated move this summer (more on that below), are rapidly hurtling toward Armageddon. Maybe not this year, maybe not even next … but it’s just around the corner. Owning late-decade Suns draft capital is a great business to be in.

As the Suns’ old guys age out, their lack of draft picks and apron handcuffs the talent pipeline and the expense of a declining roster weighs them down, just look here … the Rockets are sitting there as a potential savior.

Dangling the return of those two picks and some other goodies to get Devin Booker and let the Suns restart in two or three years is perhaps still an underdog bet, and much water will go under the bridge between now and then.

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However, this is some serious strategic thinking. It also has near-zero downside since the Rockets can always just, y’know, use the picks, and they improved their position vis-à-vis those as well. Thus, Houston might end up the real winners of the Bridges trade.

Wolves moving into draft’s top 10

We still don’t know exactly how the player will work out. Rob Dillingham might end up being too defensively vulnerable to stay on the floor in the playoffs or not quite offensively gifted enough to be more than a second-unit scorer. He was the eighth pick in a weak draft; history says stardom is hardly guaranteed.

On the other hand, the more I think about the process behind this trade, it was fairly brilliant. The Timberwolves had little capacity to add rotation-caliber players in free agency due to being above the second apron, realistically needed at least one more rotation-level player at any perimeter position over the next two years and also had a looming succession issue at point guard (Mike Conley Jr. is 36 years old) with no talent waiting in the wings.

Enter draft night. Minnesota took the only sharp arrow left in its asset quiver, a 2031 first-round pick, and advanced it seven years by sending it and a 2030 top-one protected pick swap to San Antonio to select Dillingham with the eighth pick. San Antonio also had reasons for doing this, but the Wolves paid a reasonable price. Remember, in the current lottery system, they could be horrible in 2030-2031 and still not end up picking higher than eighth.


Rob Dillingham figures to see action as the Wolves’ backup point guard. (Adam Hagy / NBAE via Getty Images)

 

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And I’m not sure they’ll be horrible. Yes, Minnesota is all-in now, almost as deeply and scarily as the aforementioned Suns. However, the Wolves’ core players are also much younger. In particular, Edwards is 23 and, the way the cap rules work now, his next extension is likely to keep him in Minnesota at least through that 2031 season, perhaps softening the blow of the future pick they owe. (Edwards could sign a monstrous extension in the summer of 2028 that would carry him to 2033, for instance.) If Dillingham pans out, he’ll have a similar effect.

Additionally, Dillingham’s inexpensive rookie contract ($6.2 million, $6.6 million and $6.9 million for the next three years before a bump to $8.8 million 2027-28) fills a four-year window when the Wolves are at their most vulnerable to the depredations of the two tax aprons and the new collective bargaining agreement’s punitive luxury tax and repeater penalties.

Hard decisions await in the next two summers; both Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid have player options and could become free agents, for instance, and the draft pick cupboard is barren. Not having to worry about signing a point guard, or about opening a new hole on the roster by trading for one, eases the degree of difficulty of executing the rest.

(While we’re here: One could argue Providence’s more defensively versatile Devin Carter might have fit the Wolves’ win-now mode better than the 19-year-old Dillingham, but his post-draft shoulder surgery pretty much ends that discussion. Ditto for Nikola Topić, who is out of the year with a knee injury.)

On one level, this didn’t require the creative juice of some of the other moves. Phoenix only had a minimum deal to offer Jones, and when the market turned on him, he took it. Credit to the Suns for having the patience to wait out the market before filling their 15th roster spot, and to their ownership for paying the additional $12 million in luxury tax this required rather than just staying at the minimum 14 players.

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On the other hand, I don’t think the impact of this move is getting enough attention. The Suns desperately needed both A) a real point guard and B) another starting-caliber level player, at any position. Jones checked both boxes without costing them any draft picks (not that they had any left to trade) or other assets.

My BORD$ formula had a $14.2 million valuation on Jones, which obviously makes him a screaming bargain on a minimum deal. On a roster where the only other options were the brittle and less offensively potent Monté Morris (himself a bargain on a minimum deal earlier this summer) and “let’s see how another year of Point Booker works out,” Jones is basically manna from heaven. Though an extremely late addition, he’s good enough that he could genuinely matter in a congested West race where two or three wins might be the difference between the third seed and the Play-In Tournament … not to mention a playoff series.

Sure, Jones is gonzo next summer, and they’ll have to try to fill his spot again, but for a team in win-now mode, the “NOW” part strikes me as the more important element. The late-decade endgame in Phoenix looks brutal no matter what. But whatever Phoenix’s 2024-25 ceiling is going to be with Mat Ishbia’s absurdly all-in, burn-all-the-draft-picks approach, the Suns are way more likely to hit it after adding Jones.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

How Tyus Jones can help boost the Suns’ hopes for contention

Dallas’ sign-and-trade for Thompson hogged the spotlight, and early returns are tilting positive after Josh Green’s 0-for-the-Olympics in Paris. (Dallas sent Green to Charlotte as the matching salary in the deal.)

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However, the Mavs’ other moves might have been better. The trade of Hardaway’s $16.2 million salary for Quentin Grimes’ $4.3 million salary set the stage for the Thompson trade and the Naji Marshall signing. The deal only cost them two seconds, and it was critical to keeping the Mavs under the first apron and thus making both the Thompson and Marshall additions cap legal.

Yet even if there were no apron component, this deal would be a win. Yes, Grimes’ knee injury from last season looms as a question mark, but at full strength, he’s a better player than Hardaway at this point in their respective careers. Grimes is a volume 3-point shooter who defends his position and can fit in perfectly as a weakside player while Dončić and Kyrie Irving dominate the ball. He’s also only 24 and a restricted free agent after the season (if the Mavs don’t extend him in October, that is).

Meanwhile, don’t forget that $16.2 million trade exception Dallas took away from this deal. The Mavs are more likely to use it in the 2025 offseason given their position just pennies from the first-apron limit (they can’t go over due to acquiring Thompson and Marshall). However, they project to have enough sub-apron space to utilize most or all of it next summer or could potentially roll it into another, longer-lived exception in a future trade.

(Top photos of Klay Thompson and Tyus Jones: Kavin Mistry, Stacy Revere / Getty Images)

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