Notre Dame’s stunning upset loss to NIU: What went wrong for Irish? Are Playoff hopes gone?

By Pete Sampson, Stewart Mandel and Justin Williams

No. 5 Notre Dame suffered a shocking upset against Northern Illinois, losing 16-14 on Saturday in South Bend after missing a 62-yard field goal on the last play.

The Irish were 28.5-point favorites, per BetMGM, and it’s the first time NIU has beaten a top-10 team in school history.

After Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard threw an interception with 5:55 left while holding a 14-13 lead, NIU drove 31 yards in 11 plays and got a 35-yard field goal from Kanon Woodill to take the lead with 31 seconds left. The Huskies had converted one fourth down en route to the field goal but were denied another first down by a questionable spot a few plays later, forcing them to attempt the go-ahead field goal earlier than hoped. Notre Dame completed a pass into NIU territory in the final seconds before its long field goal attempt was denied.

The loss comes one week after Notre Dame seemingly made an early College Football Playoff statement with a 23-13 win at Texas A&M. Now, the Irish are left picking up the pieces following a loss to a MAC team, the second time the Fighting Irish have lost at home to an opponent from the Group of 5 under third-year coach Marcus Freeman.

“Disappointing. It’s our job as coaches to make sure these guys are ready to go,” Freeman said afterward. “I’ve always said performance is a reflection of preparation.”

What happened to Notre Dame?

Notre Dame can check its College Football Playoff hopes, which fell to 34 percent immediately after Week 2 in The Athletic’s model from 73 percent — and may look far bleaker than that.

Even if the Irish had held on against Northern Illinois, Notre Dame looked like a shell of itself after last weekend’s statement win at Texas A&M. It all left Freeman exposed at the start of his third season, which looked like a make year last weekend and a break year on Saturday.

For Notre Dame, the loss deflates a season that was supposed to define Freeman’s tenure, one way or another. Now he’s left to explain another loss to a Group of 5 team, after previously losing to Marshall in 2022. Back then, Freeman had the benefit of time. He was supposed to learn on the job as a first-time head coach. This is different. Freeman was supposed to have matured in the job entering his third year, both in roster construction and staff assembly.

Retaining defensive coordinator Al Golden and hiring offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock felt like master strokes. Plucking Leonard out of the portal from Duke felt like genius move. Instead, Notre Dame is nearly drowning in questions two weeks into the season. — Sampson

Notre Dame’s offense deflates Playoff hopes

For the second time in as many weeks, Notre Dame’s new-look offense failed to inspire — and this time it cost them the game. Last week against Texas A&M, the Irish admirably rode a couple of long touchdown runs to victory in College Station, which was enough against an even worse A&M offense. But Saturday’s loss to Northern Illinois put the spotlight squarely on those struggles, particularly in the passing game, as Leonard finished 20-for-32 for 163 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions, after throwing for just 158 yards last week. In total, NIU outgained Notre Dame 388 to 286.

Freeman hired Denbrock this offseason specifically to address these concerns, bringing in a veteran play-caller and someone he worked alongside for a number of years while they were both coordinators at Cincinnati. At LSU last season, Denbrock led the most potent offense in the country in terms of points per game and yards per play, and produced a Heisman-winning QB in the process. Neither that explosiveness nor the familiarity has manifested for Notre Dame yet in 2024, but it needs to if the Irish still have any hopes of reaching the Playoff. And after Saturday, they may not. — Williams

NIU scores biggest win in program history

NIU had its moments over the year — beating No. 21 Alabama in 2003, going to the Orange Bowl in 2012 and producing Heisman finalist Jordan Lynch in 2013 – but beating a top-five Notre Dame team in South Bend is without question the biggest win in program history.

The previous highest-ranked win for the Huskies came against No. 15 Maryland on Aug. 28, 2003. It’s also the highest-ranked opponent a MAC team has ever beaten. The last time the MAC had a top-10 win was on Sept. 20, 2003, when it had two, plus NIU’s win over Alabama on the same day.

Sixth-year head coach and former NIU star running back Thomas Hammock led the Huskies to 2021 MAC championship game, but the team had been just 11-15 since then. NIU tied for third in the MAC’s preseason poll, and we’ll see if this upset becomes the prelude to another championship run.

Remember: The highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion makes the Playoff. — Mandel

Notre Dame has a quarterback problem

For all the praise directed at Leonard during the past nine months, Saturday was a reminder that little of it has been directed toward his right arm. Leonard has leadership qualities and run-game skills, but he has been a developmental passer two games into his Notre Dame career. For a quarterback with designs on playing at the next level, that must improve before the end of this season.

Leonard didn’t complete a pass of at least 20 yards against Northern Illinois and barely attempted any. He often looked hesitant reading the Northern Illinois defense and was picked off in the first half on a late throw over the middle to Jaden Greathouse. He was later picked off in NIU territory, setting up the Huskies’ winning drive.

The best of Leonard remains his rushing ability, which was ominously obvious on Notre Dame’s touchdown drive to open the game. Leonard had five rushing attempts during that drive, including the touchdown. It was as good as the Duke transfer looked in the game.

During training camp, Denbrock referenced how it took Jayden Daniels until his second season at LSU to master his offense, often not trusting his wideouts during that first fall. Leonard doesn’t have that kind of time. — Sampson

Why Notre Dame’s defense struggled

Notre Dame’s defense staged a professional performance last weekend at Texas A&M. The Irish didn’t allow a run of 10 yards or more. They didn’t allow a pass beyond 20 yards. They gave up just 13 points.

That all fell apart against Northern Illinois as the Huskies worked misdirection into the game plan at the expense of the younger Irish linebackers. Ethan Hampton hit running backs Antario Brown for an 83-yard touchdown in the first quarter with Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa in coverage. Brown put up a 43-yard reception later in the quarter. The Huskies also posted a 28-yard run.

It’s hard to square how Notre Dame’s younger linebackers — Viliamu-Asa, Drayk Bowen, Jaylen Sneed and Jaiden Ausberry — could regress so much in a each, although Ausberry made a big third-down stop and a fourth-down pass break-up in the second half. Whatever the reason, Golden and linebackers coach Max Bullough have a problem to solve heading toward next week’s game against Purdue.

Jack Kiser might be a reliable captain of the defense, but he needs help. — Sampson

What’s next?

Notre Dame resumes its in-state rivalry against Purdue with a trip to West Lafayette next Saturday, followed by home games against Miami (OH) and Louisville before an Oct. 5 idle date.

NIU has an off week to celebrate its monumental win in South Bend before hosting Buffalo on Sept. 21 and visiting NC State for another chance at a Power 4 upset on Sept. 28.

 (Photo: Brian Spurlock / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)