ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — With every Ravens turnover, every field goal forced instead of surrendering a touchdown, and every failed two-point conversion that kept the opponents just out of reach, it marched the Bills closer and closer to what they’ve been yearning to get back to for years.

At long last, the Bills have returned to the AFC Championship Game. Their 27-25 triumph over the Ravens exorcised several demons in both this season and previous ones.

Over the last three years, it’s been like a record stuck in a loop, repeating the same part of the song that drives everyone listening up the wall. In the divisional round, a super-talented Bills team with so much promise eventually yielded the way to the final four to another AFC superpower. First, it was the Chiefs. Then it was the Bengals. Then the Chiefs again. But this year… this year was different.

“You learn from all of the scars,” left tackle Dion Dawkins said. “You never want that feeling again.”

“I think there’s something kind of intangible about this team that feels different,” tight end Dawson Knox said. “It’s kind of hard to put your finger on.”

Knox isn’t alone. It’s a sentiment shared throughout the locker room, permeating throughout the fan base. Some think it’s the players. Others may point to how head coach Sean McDermott has evolved. However, that unquantifiable feeling about how the 2024-2025 Bills are different, in fact, yielded a different outcome than the past.

With all the talk centering on the Ravens and how the Bills would have to adjust to them, they forced the Ravens to adjust. The Bills kept Derrick Henry below the century mark after allowing him to hit nearly 200 rushing yards in Week 4. They took the fight to the Ravens’ defensive line, who, for good reason, drew rave reviews for their run-defending. The Bills running backs averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 26 attempts. They forced Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson into two game-changing turnovers.

And by the end of the evening, there the Bills stood, with snow trickling down, allowing the scoreboard’s bright red, white and royal blue lights to shine a jumbotron-long banner even brighter.

“Next stop, AFC Championship.”

And that next stop is to Kansas City — because, of course it is.

The very Chiefs team that gave the Bills a cruel lesson on what it takes in the AFC Championship Game four years ago, who punished them for in-game mistakes and flawed decisions en route to a blowout loss, well, there they are again — the AFC gatekeepers of the Super Bowl.

Only 13 players from that AFC Championship Game Bills team remain on the roster. Allen, Dawkins and Knox were there, along with Micah Hyde, Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, Ed Oliver, A.J. Epenesa, Cam Lewis, Reggie Gilliam, Quinton Jefferson, Tyler Bass and Reid Ferguson.

The original 13 are acutely aware of just how poetic the upcoming showdown is.

“Yeah, 100 percent,” Lewis said. “I feel like we wouldn’t want it no other way.”

“I was watching the (Chiefs-Texans) game the other night with my girlfriend,” Epenesa started. “She was like, ‘What if the Texans win?’ I was like, ‘Yeah, you know, on paper they’re the lesser team, whatever, whatever, but how much sweeter would it be to be able to beat the team that got us a couple of times in the past and everything like that?’ So I’m definitely on that page right now as we have our opportunity to do something, and I’m looking forward to it.”

GO DEEPER

Bills at Chiefs: How to watch, odds, expert picks for what should be an instant classic

A lot has changed for the Bills between the first AFC Championship matchup and now.

At that point, the Bills were simply novices. It was all new to them after only getting to the wild-card round the year before. They didn’t know what they didn’t know about deep playoff runs. The expectation was that they’d be back — and soon. It was only a matter of time.

“Soon” wasn’t quite what everyone expected. The Bills have learned difficult lessons, year after year, most of which were dealt to them by the very franchise they’ll face next weekend.

On Sunday, the Bills will have played in Kansas City more times than they have at any of their division rivals over the last five years. They’ve been there every year since that first AFC title tilt, with Sunday marking their sixth soiree at Arrowhead. It will be the eighth meeting between these two AFC behemoths over the last five years, four happening in the postseason.

But you don’t have to be reminded about how the last three have turned out. Most fans of the team have carried the weight like an elephant sitting on their collective chest.

AFC Championship Game in 2021 — a lopsided loss. AFC Divisional round in 2022 — a gut-punching loss with victory being so close they could taste it. AFC Divisional round in 2024 — another loss so close it had many wondering if the Bills would even return after an offseason roster refresh.

It all led to this year — the return to the AFC Championship Game coming in a year where no one thought it possible before the season. Standing before the Chiefs on Sunday will be the Bills, a sculpted Super Bowl contender, hardened by one excruciating playoff exit after another.

“For the guys that were there [in 2021], it’ll definitely I think be a little extra chip on the shoulder,” Knox started. “In a way, it can help. You can let it fuel you a little bit, but if you dwell on it too hard or too long, I think it’s distracting at a point. But if you kind of just let it lay underneath the surface, if it helps you bring a little extra motivation, a little extra work in the week, great. But we’re not going to be dwelling on that too hard.”

That’s one of many things that have changed about this Bills team.

Gone is the wily Allen, who, through all his brilliance, had a penchant for a back-breaking turnover. Gone are the one-dimensional, pass-happy Bills, who ran the ball well only after ample success through the air. Gone is the weak-link offensive line of the past that led to uneven results. And gone is a head coach who usually opted toward conservative in-game decisions.

In their place is a franchise quarterback playing the best football of his life, a running game that can take all the pressure off that franchise quarterback at any point during a game, an offensive line that is one of the team’s greatest strengths and a coach in complete trust of his players and the math, unafraid of fourth downs.

But opposing them will be a Chiefs team that has pivoted multiple times throughout its incredible run, all while remaining the class of the NFL. And certainly, a team eager to undo their lone loss of the 2024 regular season against the team that spoiled its perfect season.

The Bills and Chiefs are perfectly intertwined, both in their personal connectors and playoff histories. However, as always, neither can live while the other survives.

“History does have a way of repeating itself,” Dawkins said. “But sometimes, it has a different outcome. We’ll see how this one goes.”

 (Top photo: Tina MacIntyre-Yee / USA Today)

Cooper Kupp established himself as an important part of the Rams’ offense from the day general manager Les Snead selected him in the third round of the 2017 NFL draft.

But the receiver who won NFL offensive player of the year and Super Bowl most valuable player awards began the offseason on Monday with his future with the Rams in doubt.

When the Rams started the season 1-4, the team entertained trade offers for Kupp. The Rams turned around their season, but the eighth-year pro’s production waned during their drive to the playoffs.

A day after the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Rams 28-22 in an NFC divisional-round game, Kupp was asked if he wanted to return.

“Yeah,” Kupp told reporters in the locker room at the team’s facility in Woodland Hills. “Who knows what’s going to happen. A lot of stuff is out of my control. We’ll see what it’s going to be.

“There was obviously stuff that was going on early on in the season and we’ll see. I don’t have any clarity on what that’s going to look like or anything like that. Obviously, I would love to be in L.A. But I don’t know what that’s going to look like.”

Kupp’s situation is one of several that Snead, coach Sean McVay and the Rams must address, including whether quarterback Matthew Stafford will be back.

Before this past season, the Rams bent to Stafford’s demand to adjust his contract. The 16-year veteran, who will be 37 in a few weeks, said after the loss to the Eagles that he would take some time to consider his future.

Kupp, who will be 32 next season, has two years left on the extension he signed in 2022, which included $75 million in guarantees. The Rams rewarded Kupp after he achieved the so-called triple crown by leading the NFL in catches, yards receiving and touchdown catches. Kupp capped that season by catching two touchdown passes in the Rams’ Super Bowl LVI victory over the Cincinnati Bengals at SoFi Stadium.

But Kupp suffered several injuries that sidelined him for much of the past three seasons, including an ankle injury this season kept him out of four games.

In 12 regular-season games, Kupp caught 67 passes for 710 yards and six touchdowns. He caught only one pass in the Rams’ wild-card victory over the Minnesota Vikings.

“Like any great leader, I think he was just glad to be a part of winning for our team,” McVay said before the Rams played the Eagles, “but he’ll always be a guy that we want to try to be able to get involved.”

Kupp caught five passes for 61 yards in the defeat on Sunday.

Kupp is due to earn $12.5 million next season on a salary-cap number of $29.8 million, according to Overthecap.com. Only $5 million of his salary is guaranteed, according to the website.

The Rams could ask Kupp to restructure his contract. Or they could trade him.

Kupp said there was “no doubt in my mind” that he wants to play next season.

“I feel like I have a lot of good football left in me,” he said, “so I definitely will be playing. I will be playing football next year, so that much I know.”

Kupp has been an important part of McVay’s offense in several iterations.

As a rookie, he combined with receivers Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins to give former quarterback Jared Goff multiple options.

In 2018, Kupp, Woods and Brandin Cooks were a dynamic trio before Kupp suffered a season-ending knee injury that forced him to miss the second half of the season and the run to Super Bowl LIII.

In 2021, Stafford arrived via a trade for Goff and he immediately connected with Kupp. Woods suffered a late-season knee injury, and the Rams signed Odell Beckham Jr., who helped the Rams win the Super Bowl.

Last season, with Kupp sidelined early because of a hamstring injury, rookie receiver Puka Nacua emerged as a star. Nacua now appears on track to earn a huge extension before the 2026 season, which also makes Kupp’s situation tenuous.

On Monday, Kupp said he would take time to reflect on this season.

“Even though it wasn’t pretty a lot of the times, offensively, we got it done,” he said. “So there is frustration there. And obviously I want to be able to feel like I’m impacting games and that’s done on a much more discreet level, I feel like, for a lot of these games….I can look back on this season and be happy with what I put on tape and things that I was being asked to do, I feel like I was executing my job, and that’s all you can do.”

Kupp said he did not have any issues that would require surgery and that he “should be able to have a full offseason to be able to train and do what I need to do.”

Whether that work will be evidenced in a ninth season with the Rams — or perhaps another team — remains to be seen.

The road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City. After dispatching the Houston Texans, the Chiefs will play in the AFC Championship Game for a seventh straight year. They’re now just two wins away from the greatest achievement in the Super Bowl era: a three-peat. Standing in their way are the Buffalo Bills, who defeated the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night and now have a chance to dethrone the reigning two-time champions.

In the NFC, the Commanders shocked the world by upsetting the Detroit Lions on Saturday night and will try to repeat the feat next weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, who took down the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

Jeff Howe breaks down the conference championship game matchups before The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each remaining team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.

AFC

No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4, 2-0 playoffs)

The powers of the AFC wouldn’t budge this season, as the Chiefs and Bills will meet on the AFC Championship Game stage for the second time in four years.

The Bills finalized the showdown Sunday evening with a thrilling 27-25 victory against the Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Josh Allen outdueled fellow MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, as the Bills star finished 16-of-22 for 127 yards with a couple of rushing scores to help ward off Baltimore’s comeback bid.

The Chiefs were somewhat shaky in their postseason debut, but they knocked off the Texans by a decisive 23-14 margin despite the visitors outpacing them in yards, time of possession, first downs and third-down conversions. That’s because the defense (eight sacks, 14 QB hits) and special teams still carry plenty of weight, and the Chiefs are the most well-balanced team in the field.

The Chiefs, as we mentioned earlier, are on a quest to become the first team in history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. They’ve hoisted the Lombardi Trophy three times since coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes aligned.

It hasn’t been an explosive season for Mahomes, who has more games with fewer than 200 passing yards (five) than over 300 yards (three), including the divisional round. But he hasn’t been making mistakes, accounting for 13 touchdowns (one rushing) since his last interception two months ago.

Mahomes also has 15 touchdowns against just two interceptions (both in a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals) in six AFC Championship Games. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t committed a single turnover over their past eight games. That’ll be a focal point against the Bills, who notched three takeaways Sunday against the Ravens and have forced multiple turnovers in 11 of 19 games this season.

Mahomes hasn’t gotten a lot of help. His offensive tackles have been poor — at least when left guard Joe Thuney isn’t moonlighting at left tackle — and his skill players have been in and out of the lineup with injuries.

But he still has Travis Kelce, who just ripped off the ninth 100-yard game of his playoff career. The 35-year-old future Pro Football Hall of Famer’s production dipped considerably during the regular season, but Kelce is as clutch as ever in the playoffs. He’s had at least 70 yards in 14 consecutive postseason games — averaging 99.1 yards per outing over that stretch. He also has led the league in receiving touchdowns in four of the past five postseasons.

And yet, the NFL’s modern-day dynasty will be tasked with one question all week: Can they stop Allen?

Allen completed 63.6 percent of his passes during the regular season for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions, and he added 531 rushing yards and a dozen scores.

Allen was 27-of-40 for 262 yards, one touchdown and one interception when the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. He added 55 rushing yards, including a 26-yard touchdown on a pivotal fourth-and-2. That was the Chiefs’ only loss this season with Mahomes as the starter, and it might have been the performance that launched Allen’s MVP campaign.

The Chiefs are 6-3 in the AFC Championship during the Super Bowl era, including 4-2 with Mahomes, while the Bills are 4-3. The Chiefs are 4-2 in the playoffs against the Bills, including three consecutive wins over the previous four years.

• Chiefs’ chances to win Super Bowl: 30.1%
• Bills’ chances to win Super Bowl: 25.5%

NFC

No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-0 playoffs) vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5, 2-0 playoffs)

The NFC North wore the crown all season, but the NFC East is chasing the ring.

The Eagles and Commanders meet in the NFC Championship Game after splitting the regular-season series, with the Commanders claiming a 36-33 home victory in their most recent meeting in Week 16. The Eagles needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Commanders 26-18 in Week 11, so both games were close.

The Eagles may want an asterisk for their loss, as quarterback Jalen Hurts was knocked out early with a concussion, but their 33 points was the sixth-highest output of the season behind a strong Kenny Pickett performance. The far more important story was that the Eagles couldn’t win despite a 5-2 advantage in the turnover battle.

So what happens if the Eagles can’t drum up enough takeaways in the third installment? Maybe that’s also a moot point, as they had a narrow 1-0 edge in takeaways in the earlier win. It’s a rare occasion when turnovers haven’t made the difference in either outcome.

Still, the Commanders won’t want to test that theory any further. The Eagles have forced 30 turnovers in their last 13 games, including a couple of forced fumbles during a pivotal second-half stretch as they eliminated the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in the divisional round.

Daniels has had the Commanders’ offense playing at an elite level during their pair of road victories in the playoffs. They’ve scored on 11 of 16 possessions, excluding sequences to close out halves, and have punted just a single time. They’ve turned it over on downs three times — a risk-reward formula that’s been a net positive — but don’t have any interceptions or lost fumbles. They also have a missed field goal.

Daniels’ command in all situations has been remarkable. While the rookie possesses a clutch gene that’s come in handy during their game-winning drives this season, Daniels did an impressive job Saturday night of keeping the pressure on the top-seeded Lions, leading the Commanders to scores on four of their five possessions following a Detroit score. The exception was a missed field goal, so Daniels continuously kept the ball moving when the Lions were attempting to make a run.

Daniels will need to be great to get the Commanders to their first Super Bowl in 33 years, and the evidence suggests he’ll rise to that challenge. He passed for 1,522 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions during their seven-game winning streak, and he added 422 yards and a score on the ground. However, three of Daniels’ nine interceptions this season have come against the Eagles.

Hurts and the Eagles passing attack has been pedestrian since his return from a concussion. He had 259 passing yards and two touchdowns in the two playoff wins, although he had 106 yards and a score as a rusher. Wide receivers A.J. Brown (three catches for 24 yards) and DeVonta Smith (eight catches for 76 yards) haven’t made much of an impact as a result.

But fear not, as the Eagles still have running back Saquon Barkley. The best offseason addition in the league had 324 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two playoff games, as he hasn’t slowed down since his torrid regular season.

These teams have one postseason meeting, with Washington taking their wild-card matchup on Jan. 5, 1991. The Commanders are 90-86-6 in the all-time series.

The Commanders are 5-1 in conference championships during the Super Bowl era, while the Eagles are 4-4.

• Eagles’ chances to win Super Bowl: 33.5%
• Commanders’ chances to win Super Bowl: 11%

(Photo of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: Ryan Kang / Getty Images)