March Madness best bets: Five intriguing games, plus UCLA’s Final Four odds

Choice Sunday is a banner day for creating content material. Everyone will get to take to social media, put pen to paper or fingers to keyboard and air all their grievances with what the committee determined to do for this yr’s bracket. Bettors don’t actually get caught up in that, as they’re looking for traces which might be flawed primarily based on the matchups or the perceptions of the groups.

Oddsmakers have some challenges with regards to setting the NCAA match traces. Groups haven’t performed nonconference video games since December and there are a number of questions on convention power, what’s actual and what’s not and up to date kind. That may create some traces which might be just a bit bit off and there are some that look fairly ripe for the selecting to date.

Listed below are 5 NCAA match bets I like:

Texas Southern (-3.5) vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi: Tuesday’s play-in sport in Dayton between Texas Southern and Texas A&M Corpus Christi options one workforce that has been in that state of affairs and one which has not. The Tigers simply went to Dayton final yr and knocked off Mount St. Mary’s 60-52. They had been additionally there in 2018 and beat NC Central 64-46. The personnel is slightly completely different, and head coach Johnny Jones was solely there for final yr’s sport, however there may be extra familiarity for the Tigers.

The Islanders are a terrific story and first-year head coach Steve Lutz did a superb job, however that was a Texas A&M CC workforce that was 7-7 in Southland play earlier than happening a convention match run. Texas Southern performs in a nasty SWAC convention, however nonetheless had a power of schedule that was 40 spots greater than Texas A&M CC due to a robust nonconference slate. The Tigers ought to transfer on to get overwhelmed badly by Kansas.

Tennessee (-17) vs. Longwood: There are many examples of groups turning into a Cinderella, because the glass slipper simply occurs to suit with the draw. Sadly, Longwood received a nasty draw right here. The Lancers are a terrific three-point taking pictures workforce and had been dominant on the boards within the Large South Convention. They simply gained’t be capable to sustain with Tennessee on this spot.

The Vols are among the best defensive groups within the nation and pressure a number of turnovers. Longwood wants to have the ability to play with the ball as a lot as potential, as this was an offense-first workforce over the course of the season. Tennessee ’s evident weak spot is taking pictures 48% on two-point pictures, however Longwood was one of many worst groups within the nation in 2P% protection and is the second-worst within the subject ( Miami ). A greater draw and the Lancers might have made some noise, however they didn’t get one.

Saint Peter’s (+17.5) vs. Kentucky : The Peacocks of the MAAC ranked eleventh within the nation in 2P% protection in opposition to Division I opponents. We simply watched as Kentucky went two of 20 from three in opposition to the Tennessee Volunteers to get bounced from the SEC Event. No, Saint Peter’s just isn’t on Tennessee ’s stage athletically, however all the philosophy on protection for the Peacocks is to defend the home. Frankly, Saint Peter’s defended every thing effectively, as additionally they rank within the high 15 in 3P% protection.

The priority on this one is whether or not or not the Peacocks can rating sufficient factors to cowl the unfold, however Kentucky will probably be cautious with Oscar Tshiebwe and TyTy Washington right here with greater objectives in thoughts. Kentucky doesn’t pressure a number of turnovers and this sport ought to be performed at a slower tempo, which supplies the large underdog a very good probability of overlaying.

UAB (+9) vs. Houston : Houston is under-seeded as a No. 5 seed. The Cougars have ranked as an unquestioned top-10 workforce all season lengthy per guys like Ken Pomeroy and Bart Torvik. To say they’re across the seventeenth or 18th finest workforce within the subject is laughable. Nonetheless, up till Choice Sunday, the Cougars had precisely one win in opposition to a match workforce. It was the Bryant Bulldogs, the automated qualifier from the Patriot League.

The Cougars received revenge in opposition to Memphis , however perhaps the outcomes converse for themselves, on condition that Houston misplaced in nonconference motion to Wisconsin and Alabama . UAB is a harmful workforce. The Blazers are among the best within the nation from three and have one of many high turnover margins within the nation. Houston is an terrible free-throw taking pictures workforce in a sport that initiatives to be fairly shut and one which I feel the Blazers might doubtlessly win outright.

UCLA to win the East Area (to make the Ultimate 4, +750): The Bruins received a very good draw as a No. 4 seed. They drew the weakest No. 1 seed in Baylor, a workforce that actually struggled down the stretch and clearly missed high rebounder Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua. UCLA is a very good workforce on the glass, however greater than that, the Bruins are a top-15 workforce in each adjusted offensive and defensive effectivity. Baylor is fairly near that stage by defending the three effectively and forcing turnovers, however the Bruins take excellent care of the basketball and have one of many lowest 3P charges within the nation, taking pictures one solely 31.5% of the time.

Mick Cronin would maintain a training edge over Scott Drew within the Candy 16. The underside of the bracket includes a Kentucky workforce that would lose to the Murray State/San Francisco winner or Purdue in a probable Candy 16 matchup. Even when Kentucky advances, the Wildcats have some defensive points as effectively. As soon as once more, they defend the three lots higher than the 2. It’s nearly as good of a draw as a No. 4 seed might ask for and UCLA has been enjoying at a excessive stage late within the season.

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