Sports

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner play tennis. Their Australian Open rivals see a different sport

Published

2 hours ago

January 12, 2025

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner play tennis. Their Australian Open rivals see a different sport

MELBOURNE, Australia — Just as it did 12 months ago, the tennis gods gave the Australian Open the men’s singles draw it craved. On the steps of Margaret Court Arena, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz emerged in opposite halves, setting up the possibility of a first Grand Slam final duel for the matchup that defines tennis on the ATP Tour.

The 23-year-old Italian and the 21-year-old Spaniard split the four majors 2-2 in 2024. They hit the ball as hard as anyone and cover every inch of the court, laterally and vertically, inside the lines and out.

For their opponents, their tennis feels like a different sport to the one they signed up to at the start of their journey to the professional circuit.

They also do not lack for confidence.

“I’m an ambitious guy,” Alcaraz said during a visit to New York in December for an exhibition at Madison Square Garden. “I’m sure sooner or later I’m going to be the Australian Open champion.”

Sinner said his goal last year was to gain a better understanding of what he might be able to achieve in his career. With two Grand Slams triumphs and the No. 1 ranking he got some hints, though ticking those boxes was not a specific goal.

“It’s going to be the same next year,” he said after winning the ATP Tour Finals in Turin and finishing the season 73-6. “Whatever we can catch, we take, and the rest we learn.”

Sinner and Alcaraz have intermittently played tennis like it’s a fantastical computer game since their 2022 U.S. Open quarterfinal and its five hours and 15 minutes of spellbinding shotmaking. In 2024, they fully reconfigured the sport, overtaking the baseline call and response honed by Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic and the reactive development of players like Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev, who arrived armed with huge serves and counterpunching groundstrokes.

Sinner and Alcaraz have reconfigured tennis into a hyper-aggressive game of chicken. To hit a neutral ball is to be on defense and to be on defense is to lose (against each other) or to steal the point (against pretty much everybody else). Their ATP Tour rivals, from Zverev and Medvedev to Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud and all the way down, are at a loss. The tennis they knew has vanished before their eyes.

GO DEEPER

Tennis mailbag part one: Challenging Sinner and Alcaraz, baseline boredom, coaching change

Great players win lots of matches and championships. The greatest ever players change how their sport is played, redrawing the tennis court to create new shots and angles that few thought were possible before. Think of the way the basketball stars Steph Curry and Caitlin Clark normalized three-pointers from way beyond the stripe, extending defenses, creating offensive space where it wasn’t supposed to exist, and redesigning the toolkit that top-level basketball required.

Sinner and Alcaraz are having a similar impact on their sport. Tennis courts are still 78 feet long and 27 feet wide. They have not grown. These two just make it seem like they have.

In most tennis rallies, the player that forces their opponent into or outside the tramlines — where the width of the singles court expires — is likely to win the point. Either the ball won’t come back because the angle is too sharp, or it will come back soft and floating, ready to be dispatched into space.

There is a massive difference in what happens when Sinner and Alcaraz are outside the tramlines. This supposed zone of no return is where they can show off. It’s where Alcaraz can display his blazing speed and rocketing forehands blasted on a full sprint over or around the net post. It’s where Sinner embodies the junior skiing champion he once was, bending low as he swings his racket then pushing back into the court like he has just come around a slalom gate on icy slope.

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have pushed each other to extremes since their 2022 U.S. Open quarterfinal (Julian Finney / Getty Images)

Far more often than the rest of the tour, Sinner and Alcaraz are winning points or getting on the attack from places where they are supposed to lose. It has created a paradox, most visibly with Alcaraz, in which stressing and pressing them is a bad idea. They win one impossible point, and then another, lifting the crowd and pointing to their ears, and the avalanche starts to rumble down the mountain.

Zverev, who knows he is world No. 2 in rank but not in spirit, knows what this feels like. He rarely gets tired during tennis matches, even the longest five-set duels at Grand Slams. The 2024 French Open final against Alcaraz was different. By the fifth set, his legs were gone, his body wilting from the relentlessness of the challenge that he expects will shape tennis for many years.

“Everybody talks about how great they are defensively,” Zverev said after defeating Alcaraz at the ATP Tour Finals in Turin. He doesn’t buy it.

“Tennis is not about defense anymore,” he added.

“It used to be a few years back, but I think those guys, 90 percent of the time they’re only playing offense. It’s about making sure that you can keep up offensively with them, being able to keep up with their speeds of groundstrokes as well. That’s the No. 1 thing. Not backing off, going for your shots in the most important moments. That’s maybe where I struggled, as well, in my career, trusting my shots and going for them when I need to.”

He and just about everyone else. This is where Sinner and Alcaraz are taking tennis. Movement, specifically in and out of the corners, has become as important as the serve and the return. Ben Shelton has realized his 150mph serve and lashing forehand will only take him so far, hiring Gabriel Echevarria, a movement specialist, early last year. Naomi Osaka hired a ballerina to help her gain more surety and speed in the corners. Nearly every player wants to master an open-stance backhand, to save a split second on the pivot back to the center of the court.

Fritz, who has long known that he struggles outside the singles line, spent much of the off-season working on moving out to the farthest reaches of a tennis court to chase down balls. His coach, Michael Russell, has seen a version of this movie before. At 46, he’s three years older than Roger Federer, eight years older than Nadal and nine years older than Djokovic. He watched those three players change the sport’s equation, just as Sinner and Alcaraz are doing now.

“There’s no room for uncharacteristic errors,” he said during an interview in Italy in November. “Literally, they’re not giving you an inch.”

Carlos Alcaraz thrives on winning points from seemingly impossible positions (Julian Finney / Getty Images)

When Russell uses the word “error,” he’s not talking about a ball that flies long or dumps into the net, unforced or not. He’s talking about any ball that doesn’t have enough speed, depth, or width to stop Sinner and Alcaraz from exploiting it. For decades, a first principle of tennis has been resetting a point, changing its state from attack to neutral, or defense to neutral. Sinner and Alcaraz don’t allow for this. There’s a reason Fritz and Zverev, the two players closest to Sinner and Alcaraz in the rankings, have spent so much time the past months learning how to dictate the terms of engagement.

“Even if it’s only one or two points a match, that can be the differential. Applying that psychological pressure that the guy can’t just float the ball back and reset,” Russell said.

This is what Alcaraz and Sinner do so well and so much better than their ATP Tour contemporaries.

That flip of a point from defense to attack has been codified by data specialists TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations as a “steal score,” measuring how often a player wins a point from defense. Alcaraz is top. Sinner is not far behind.

Across the ATP Tour, players are hitting shots outside the singles sidelines around 17 percent of the time, but Sinner and Alcaraz win around 45 percent of the points they play from there. Their opponents win around 30.

From outside the doubles lines, Alcaraz wins 43 percent of points and Sinner 42. Alcaraz’s opponents win around 22 percent; Sinner’s around 29.

Casper Ruud, who like Zverev and Fritz spent most of 2024 with his head spinning, doesn’t recognize the tennis that took him to three Grand Slam finals in 12 months in 2022 and 2023. After spending years perfecting his balance between patience and a lethal forehand, he could feel Sinner and Alcaraz making tennis pass him by. Those deep, looping shots he has long used to hang in points simply don’t work against them. He needs to change, or perish as a force at the top of the game.

“They can turn around the point with one shot on the run, even from the forehand or backhand,” he said in an interview Italy in November. “I feel like that is something definitely missing in my game on the faster hard court.

“That’s something in the next weeks and months I’ll try to keep working on. But I’m not going to change my game in one day or one week. It’s going to take time.”

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz’s meetings inevitably descend into games of tennis chicken (Clive Brunskill / Getty Images)

Ruud is 26. Fritz and Zverev are 27. They and the rest of their contemporaries, who have spent most of their tennis lives banging on the Big Three ceiling, are now having to make a mid-career adjustment based on how two youngsters who have achieved their dreams before them play the sport.

Younger players, even juniors, may be at an advantage. Just as so many of them are trying to master Alcaraz’s drop-shot-lob combinations, they are growing up knowing what they have to be able to do to reach the top of tennis. For the rest of the ATP Tour, it can feel like climbing a mountain that dissolves just before the apex, then re-forms with new terrain and a higher summit.

Sinner and Alcaraz are remaking tennis for everybody else, but what happens when the unstoppable force goes up against the immovable object? What would the Australian Open final that everybody wants to see look like?

“You have more tension. You have more eyes on us because this is a match most people want to see,” Sinner said Friday in a Melbourne news conference.

“First, you have to arrive to this stage where you play against Carlos, which is a very difficult part to go through. When this happens, the feeling — I think he also feels the same way — it’s a bit different. We usually play a high-quality match because when two players face each other and you bring out your best, the quality of the match usually is very high.”

Sinner spent most of the year as the world No. 1, even though Alcaraz holds a 6-4 edge in their rivalry. Alcaraz won all three of their meetings last year, most recently in the final of the China Open in Beijing, edging Sinner 6-7(6), 6-4, 7-6(3) from 3-0 down in the deciding tiebreak with seven points from another galaxy.

Alcaraz said in New York in December that he and his friends think it’s pretty funny that Sinner is No. 1 without beating him last year. Sinner is besting him on serve right now; Alcaraz is the better player in the forecourt, with the vertical movement to go with the lateral magic tricks they share.

GO DEEPER

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner go head to head in their own tennis galaxy

That might have a little bit to do with the edge he holds in the nether reaches of the tennis court. They are about even in their performance on points when they move each other beyond the singles line, with Alcaraz winning 36 percent of those points and Sinner 38 percent.

Outside the doubles lines, Alcaraz has a clear advantage, winning 36 percent of the points against 30 percent for Sinner. In general, their pushing each other to greater heights also forces them to lose a few points that they would win against anybody else.

Once they get in attack, they are the two best players on the ATP Tour at closing out the point. Sinner wins 74 percent of the time; Alcaraz 73.

Against each other though, when they are pulling off their acrobatics on points that send the opponent off the court, those rates drop. However, Alcaraz’s doesn’t drop as much. He converts 66 percent of the time against Sinner, while Sinner converts 62 percent of the time from his end of the court.

That still leaves a sizable number of those highlight reel points, when they both put on a version of tennis as escape art. It’s their ability to do the extraordinary against the only other player in their orbit — though don’t count Djokovic and his 24 Grand slam titles out just yet.

“Insane,” Fritz said in Turin.

He’s the one who has to try and beat them.

(Top photos: Getty Images; design:Will Tullos)

Sports

Tom Brady partners with Gopuff to deliver $250K in free water to those affected by Los Angeles wildfires

Published

3 hours ago

January 12, 2025

Press Room

Tom Brady partners with Gopuff to deliver 0K in free water to those affected by Los Angeles wildfires

As those in Southern California continue to deal with wildfire devastation, NFL legend Tom Brady is doing his part to help out the relief efforts.

Brady partnered with Gopuff to deliver $250,000 of free water to those impacted by the wildfires.

The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power continues to send out alerts saying that unsafe water is in the area due to fire-related toxins in tap water.

Tom Brady (Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images)

So, customers of Gopuff, which has thousands of employees, 160-plus BevMo! Stores and a corporate office in California can use the code “CAStrong” at checkout to have fresh, and free, still water delivered up to $10.

Also, 30% off essentials, including food, batteries, electrolytes and more, is being offered by the company that also announced a donation of $150,000 worth of essentials last week.

LOS ANGELES WILDFIRES DEATH TOLL RISES TO 16 AS GAVIN NEWSOM FACES NEW FIREFIGHTING FUNDING SCRUTINY

“Our hearts are with the thousands and thousands of people impacted by the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles,” said Yakir Gola, Gopuff co-founder and co-CEO, in a statement. “We are extremely grateful for first responders’ round-the-clock efforts to keep our communities safe and for our team leaders’ tireless efforts to support our employees in the area.

“To do our part to support first responders and anyone who’s impacted locally, we’ve partnered with Tom Brady to give away $250K worth of water to those in the LA area and will continue to monitor the situation and support however we can.”

Brady joined Gopuff in June 2024 in a multiyear strategic partnership in which he said he would be hands-on with the instant commerce leader.

Fox Sports broadcaster Tom Brady smiles on the field prior to the game between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field on November 17, 2024, in Chicago. (Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

“Since my first time using Gopuff, I’ve been amazed by how fast and seamless the deliveries are, offering so many different options right at your fingertips,” said Brady in an official press release of the partnership announcement. “I’m excited to be working with the Gopuff team to continue to drive innovation and help create an even better experience for their customers.”

California authorities have confirmed a new death toll of 16 as the wildfires continued to rage around Los Angeles on Sunday. Thousands have lost their homes as first responders continue to try to get control over the flames.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has invited President-elect Donald Trump to visit California amid the wildfires and fighting over budget decisions. The governor has faced criticism for approving a budget that slashed $100 million in firefighting and fire prevention funding.

Tom Brady walks across the field before the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on November 24, 2024, in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

Newsom did issue an executive order on Sunday to remove some regulatory hurdles and procedures to accelerate rebuilding homes and business faster.

Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X, and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.

Scott Thompson is a sports writer for Fox News Digital.

Sports

Khalil Mack unsure if he will be back with the Chargers next season

Published

4 hours ago

January 12, 2025

Press Room

Khalil Mack unsure if he will be back with the Chargers next season

After a devastating 27-point playoff collapse two seasons ago nearly sent Khalil Mack into sudden retirement, the Chargers’ star edge rusher plans to revisit the decision about his football future with more care this offseason as he’s slated to become an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career.

Still wearing the wounds of the Chargers’ AFC wild-card round exit to the Houston Texans, Mack said Sunday he will prioritize his family while evaluating his next career move. The father of two will make sure to discuss it with his wife. He knows how impressionable his sons, aged 2 and 3, are at this age. They love watching highlights of their father’s football career, and spending time with them is of utmost importance.

But the 11-year professional who could be in the running for the Hall of Fame one day is still chasing not only his first championship, but his first playoff victory.

“I also don’t want to go out with a L, just based on who I am as a man and a person,” Mack said. “I’m a competitor, man. I’m the ultimate competitor.”

The 33-year-old Mack is one of many impending free agents who will weigh their football futures after the Chargers were bounced from the playoffs by the Houston Texans. But the annual threat of roster churn came with additional optimism in El Segundo on Sunday as the Chargers looked toward a bright future under coach Jim Harbaugh.

“Just understanding what he’s done in the short time he’s been here, and the potential of the guys that are in the building, you see the growth is inevitable,” Mack said. “It’s only a matter of time.”

The Chargers went from five wins last year to 11 in Harbaugh’s first season, the best single-season turnaround for the franchise in two decades. In the process, Harbaugh “made football fun again,” said cornerback Kristian Fulton, who is slated to hit free agency again after signing a one-year deal with the Chargers.

“Honestly one of my favorite teams I’ve ever been on,” safety Derwin James Jr. said.

James is already trying to keep the band together.

Amid final team meetings, exit interviews and locker clean out Sunday, the All-Pro safety gave Mack his pitch to keep the edge rusher in L.A. The pair of defensive leaders earned Pro Bowl nominations this season as James notched a career-high 5½ sacks. Mack, who restructured his contract last offseason to take a pay cut and stay with the Chargers, earned his ninth Pro Bowl appearance, tallying 39 tackles and six sacks.

Khalil Mack walks off the field after a Chargers win over the New England Patriots on Dec. 28.

(Vera Nieuwenhuis / Associated Press)

Although it was a decrease from when he revitalized his career with a career-high 17 sacks and 74 tackles, his highest total since 2017, Mack said his body is in “tip-top shape.” After missing one game this season because of a groin injury, Mack said the bigger consideration is the mental toll of a season and the time it takes away from his family.

The Chargers’ third Pro Bowl selection Rashawn Slater is under contract through 2025 after the organization picked up the left tackle’s fifth-year option last May, but could be due for a long-term extension soon. The 25-year-old had the second-highest blocking grade among tackles this season, according to Pro Football Focus, and earned his second Pro Bowl appearance.

Despite coming off such a strong season, Slater said he has not engaged in any extension talks.

“I’ve always just been focused on ball and kind of let the thing happen how it happens,” Slater said. “But I love playing here and that would be great.”

In addition to Mack, the Chargers also face free agency decisions on starters, including center Bradley Bozeman, running back J.K. Dobbins, defensive backs Fulton, Elijah Molden and Asante Samuel Jr. and defensive linemen Poona Ford and Morgan Fox.

Samuel was placed on injured reserve Oct. 12 with a shoulder injury that he likened to a stinger Sunday, his first comments to local media since he was sidelined. He aggravated the injury during a collision in practice and was on the injury report for Week 1 but continued to play until it flared up heading into the Chargers’ Week 6 game against the Denver Broncos. Doctors advised him to take a cautious approach. He said both shoulders are affected, but the left one is more severe. It didn’t require surgery and he expects to be ready for the offseason program wherever he lands next year.

After the Chargers drafted him 47th overall in 2021, Samuel said it was “hurtful” to not be on the field while his team turned into one of the NFL’s best defenses. Under first-year defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, the Chargers finished the regular season as the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defense, allowing 17.7 points per game.

“The first year is a lot of bumps and bruises, but I feel like next year they’re going to be top tier,” Samuel said. “We was already top tier this year. So I feel like next year is going to take another step, and it’ll keep taking steps and getting better each and every year. We have a great coaching staff. We have a great staff in general, just the whole organization. … So we have all the pieces we need here.”

Those pieces could be a key in Mack’s ultimate decision. Past his initial estimate of a 10-year professional career, Mack has made it clear that if he’s playing, he intends to be competing for a championship.

For the first time in a while, the Chargers might truly fit the bill.

“As long as Justin Herbert is your quarterback, Derwin James and all these guys, man, that love the game of football, and you got Jim Harbaugh coaching you,” Mack said, “you know you always have a chance to win.”

Sports

NFL insider playoff predictions: Coaches, execs pick wild-card round winners

Published

14 hours ago

January 12, 2025

Press Room

NFL insider playoff predictions: Coaches, execs pick wild-card round winners

The race to topple the Kansas City Chiefs is about to get underway.

Though as the AFC’s top seed, the reigning two-time Super Bowl champs get to rest during Wild-Card weekend. The 12 teams playing have more immediate priorities than the Chiefs, but the end goal remains: lift the Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans.

It was the year of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, and the Detroit Lions’ dominance over an all-time great NFC North. Other contenders, such as the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings, appear ready to handle the big stage. Yet, through it all, the Chiefs remained a quiet constant, storming through the schedule with a 15-2 record despite a number of close calls. The other 13 playoff teams, including the NFC’s top-seeded Lions, have to believe the Chiefs are as vulnerable as they’ve been during their dynastic era, but that’s easy to say before lining up against the NFL’s modern-day juggernauts.

Patrick Mahomes is 15-3 in the playoffs, his three losses coming against Tom Brady (once with New England, once with the Bucs) and Joe Burrow. Brady is retired and Burrow’s Bengals missed the playoffs, so if the Chiefs’ three-peat quest is going to be derailed, an opposing QB is going to have to do something he’s never done before.

The playoffs open with six games this weekend; The Athletic polled eight coaches and personnel executives to get their thoughts and predictions on the matchups. (Note: Those who were polled were not allowed to vote on their own team’s game.)

Get ready for the NFL playoffs

No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at No. 4 Houston Texans (10-7)

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Expert picks: Chargers 6, Texans 2

Quarterback C.J. Stroud and the Texans appeared poised to join the elite ranks after a 5-1 start to the season, but they’ve lost six of their last 11 games while dealing with key injuries and an offensive line that hasn’t held up. Stroud, as a result, was worse in every major statistical category relative to his rookie season.

The Chargers are heading in a different direction. They won eight of 11, including three in a row, to jump into the coveted No. 5 seed and the right to play against the reeling AFC South champions.

“(The Chargers are) playing really good ball as of late,” an assistant coach said. “They will be balanced enough with the run and pass to throw off the Texans’ pass rush.”

If the Texans are going to have a chance, they’ll need edge rushers Danielle Hunter (12 sacks) and Will Anderson (11) to have big games. That tandem racked up nearly half of the defense’s 49 sacks. Though the Texans’ strength might be neutralized by Chargers tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. L.A. allowed 44 sacks during the regular season, 14th-most in the NFL, but quarterback Justin Herbert has only been sacked three times in the last three games, albeit against lighter competition. However, it’s a marked improvement over a brutal, 10-game midseason stretch when he was taken down 32 times, including at least three sacks in eight of those games.

“The (Chargers’) physicality, running the ball, that quarterback finds a way,” an executive said. “I can’t buy in right now to the Texans’ offensive front and the pressure C.J. is getting. The way the Chargers are protecting now with those two tackles, I think they can handle those rushers.”

There is playoff history for both organizations that shouldn’t be ignored. The Texans, who are playing in the wild-card Saturday afternoon time slot for a league-high seventh time since the 2012 postseason, have dealt with the diminished spotlight throughout their history. But in their previous seven playoff appearances, Houston has gone one-and-done just twice. Meanwhile, the Chargers have two playoff wins over the last 15 years. They blew a 27-0 lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars two years ago in their last postseason appearance. It could be why one assistant coach proclaimed the Texans will “definitely” win the game.

Also of note, this matchup features teams that struggled against opponents that made the postseason — the Chargers were 2-5, both wins against the Denver Broncos, while the Texans were 1-5, the victory coming in Week 5 against the Bills. These teams have never met in the playoffs.

Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson will square off for the third time this season. The Steelers and Ravens split the season series. (Justin K. Aller / Getty Images)

No. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at No. 3 Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET Saturday
Expert picks: Ravens 8, Steelers 0

It might be rivalry week for two hated AFC North teams, but the rest of the league doesn’t anticipate a close game. This matchup was the only unanimous vote of the wild-card round.

The Ravens’ 34-17 home victory in Week 16 against the reeling Steelers apparently left a mark.

“Baltimore simply can score more than the Steelers,” a coach said. “Pittsburgh has leveled off at a bad time.”

The Steelers have lost four in a row, including non-competitive defeats to the Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs. The Packers, with back-to-back losses, are the only other playoff team with a multi-game losing streak. Additionally, coach Mike Tomlin is 2-5 in road playoff games.

The Steelers got a jolt when they installed Russell Wilson as their starting quarterback, but they’ve fallen off lately. Pittsburgh averaged 30.3 points in Wilson’s first three starts but just 20.6 in his last eight — a number greatly inflated by a 44-38 win over the Bengals — including six games with fewer than 20 points.

However, Jackson is only 2-4 in the playoffs, completing 57.4 percent of his passes for an average of 220.7 yards per outing with six touchdowns and six interceptions. He also has averaged 86.8 rushing yards with three postseason rushing touchdowns. Historically, the Steelers have done a strong job stifling Jackson, going 6-2 against the two-time MVP. Jackson, though, threw for 207 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in their last meeting; his 115.4 passer rating was the first time he’s exceeded a rating of 81 against Pittsburgh.

Even with past MVP hardware, Jackson has taken his game to another level this season, with career bests of 4,172 passing yards, 41 touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s also tacked on 915 rushing yards — a total output of 5,087 yards — and four scores.

“I think Lamar makes a run this year,” an executive said. “Derrick Henry in the playoffs is such a great complement.”

The Ravens played a league-high 10 games against opponents that made the playoffs, and their seven wins in those games matched the Chiefs for the most in the NFL. They were 1-1 against the Steelers.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, went 4-3 against playoff teams, though they’ve lost three in a row against opponents from this year’s postseason field, all since Week 15.

The Steelers are 3-1 against the Ravens in the playoffs, but Baltimore won the last meeting, 10 years ago. This is the teams’ first postseason matchup in Baltimore.

No. 7 Denver Broncos (10-7) at No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4)

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Expert picks: Bills 7, Broncos 1

It’s been all Josh Allen this season, and he might be on the verge of his first MVP award. He’ll need to maintain this level to deliver Buffalo a long-coveted Lombardi Trophy.

“So much is put on the quarterback,” an executive said. “(Allen) has to play well for them to advance. If he has a stinker, they’ll be in trouble. I think they’ll play decently on defense, and they’re at their place so I think they would win.”

The Bills were just 2-3 against opponents who made the playoffs this season, but their victories came against the Chiefs and Lions. They’re the only team in NFL history to beat two 15-win teams in a season.

While they’re capable of taking down the best, the Bills have had some recent defensive lapses, notably giving up 86 points in back-to-back games against the Los Angeles Rams and Lions. Allen has the potential to play a perfect game every time he hits the field, but the Bills don’t want to force him to keep doing it every week in the playoffs.

The Broncos have one of the worst résumés among teams in the postseason field. They were 2-5 against playoff opponents; they had an impressive Week 3 blowout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the other victory was a takedown of the Chiefs’ backups in the regular-season finale. Denver needed that win to get into the postseason after failed attempts to clinch against the Chargers and Bengals.

Nonetheless, this was an impressive turnaround for the Broncos in Sean Payton’s second season as head coach, especially considering they had $32 million of Russell Wilson’s dead money on the books. Denver allowed the third-fewest points in the league and got timely quarterback play out of Bo Nix.

The Broncos won the last meeting between these teams, 24-22, in 2023 on Monday Night Football.

The executive who picked the Broncos was decisive with his prediction: “The defense stifles Josh Allen in a shocker, and they blow it up in Buffalo.”

A coach who picked the Bills thought this would be the best game of the weekend.

The Bills won the teams’ only postseason matchup, in the 1991 playoffs.

No. 7 Green Bay Packers (11-6) at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday
Expert picks: Eagles 6, Packers 2

The panel worked under the assumption quarterbacks Jalen Hurts (concussion) and Jordan Love (elbow) would be cleared to play. Hurts has missed two games, while Love was injured Sunday and has sounded optimistic about his availability.

The Eagles have been as hot as any team on the planet. Since starting 2-2, Philadelphia won 12 of 13, including a stretch of 10 consecutive wins. The loss came against the Washington Commanders, 36-33, in Week 16, a game Hurts left in the first quarter after he was concussed.

Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s group allowed the second-fewest points in the league (17.8), and the offense has been rolling behind MVP candidate Saquon Barkley. The running back led the league with 2,005 rushing yards and 2,283 yards from scrimmage, and he scored 15 times.

Hurts was the point guard for an offense that also got big production out of receivers A.J. Brown (67 catches, 1,079 yards, seven touchdowns) and DeVonta Smith (68-833-8).

“Jalen is coming back,” an executive said. “Saquon is running the ball great. That defense has played so well, especially in the back end. That’s going to hurt Jordan Love.”

The Packers stumbled down the stretch, losing three of five, including two in a row. But while they’ve looked loaded at times and beaten up on lesser competition, the Packers were 2-5 against playoff teams. They beat the Rams in Week 5 — a game that knocked the Rams to 1-5 — and the Texans in Week 7.

By comparison, the Eagles were 6-2 against this year’s playoff teams, including 4-1 since Week 11. That included beating the Packers, 34-29, in the season opener in Brazil.

Love’s numbers were down in his second season as the starter, but he has done a better job of taking care of the ball. He threw 11 interceptions, but he hasn’t been picked in seven straight games. Still, one executive was concerned about Love losing feeling in his throwing hand after the elbow injury.

“Not sure about Love’s injury and (the Packers being) fully able to be winners yet,” the executive said.

Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley had an impressive first season. Green Bay allowed the sixth-fewest points in the NFL despite losing star cornerback Jaire Alexander midway through the season and linebacker Quay Walker down the stretch.

This game, perhaps more than any this weekend, could be decided by turnovers. Both teams are ranked in the top-six in takeaways, with their combined 57 takeaways the most among wild-card opponents.

“Green Bay is undisciplined and will make a critical mistake late that they can’t overcome,” a coach said.

The Eagles are 2-1 against the Packers in the playoffs, although this is their first meeting in 14 years.

No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5) at No. 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)

Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET Sunday
Expert picks: Buccaneers 5, Commanders 2

The Bucs won the vote, but a few panelists view this as a close game that could go either way.

The Bucs have claimed four consecutive NFC South titles, but they needed to win six of seven down the stretch to hold off the Atlanta Falcons. They’re battle-tested with a 4-3 record against playoff teams, and their wins against the Lions and Eagles indicate Tampa can beat anyone.

The Commanders aren’t as proven, with a 1-4 record against teams in the postseason field. The win came against the Eagles, with Hurts forced from the game in the first quarter.

For the Bucs, it starts with quarterback Baker Mayfield, who had the best season of his career for the second year in a row. Mayfield completed 71.4 percent of his passes for 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, and he was also at his best as a runner with 378 yards, three scores and 24 carries for first downs.

“Gritty team, love the way Baker competes,” an executive said. “(Bucs head coach Todd) Bowles dials up a good game plan against rookie QBs.”

The Bucs’ greatest weakness might be on defense, as they’ve struggled at times to get off the field. Of note: Dallas Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush led scoring drives on six of his first seven possessions in a surprising Sunday night upset against the Buccaneers in Week 16.

The Bucs allowed 22.6 points per game, the third-most among playoff teams, but the Commanders allowed the most (23.0). They acquired cornerback Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline to address an undermanned secondary, but he’s been limited to two games due to a hamstring injury. If Lattimore is available, the former Saint could be in store for another big-time matchup against wideout Mike Evans.

Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels had an outstanding season and could be efficient enough to cause huge problems for the Bucs. Daniels completed 69.0 percent of his passes for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and he added a team-high 891 rushing yards along with six scores. His favorite target has been Terry McLaurin (82 catches, 1,096 yards, 13 touchdowns).

If it’s a back-and-forth game, Daniels will be confident on the heels of game-winning drives against the Eagles and Falcons.

Turnovers will be a non-negotiable key to victory for the Bucs. While Mayfield has been terrific, he led the league with 16 interceptions, his most since 2019. However, the Commanders’ 17 takeaways are tied for the least in the playoff field.

“Flip a coin,” one executive said about the matchup.

However it plays out, the Commanders’ turnaround has been one of the most impressive stories of the season. Daniels, head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Adam Peters are each in their first season in those roles in Washington, and they delivered the franchise its best record since 1991 and its first playoff appearance in four years. But can the Commanders win their first playoff game since the 2005 postseason?

The Bucs are 2-1 in the playoffs against the Commanders, including a 31-23 win in Tampa four years ago.

No. 5 Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at No. 4 Los Angeles Rams (10-7)

Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET Monday
Expert picks: Vikings 5, Rams 3

This was the closest vote, and it’s easy to understand why. For starters, the Rams won a home game against the Vikings, 30-20, in Week 8 (it was tighter than the final score indicates). Head coaches Sean McVay and Kevin O’Connell are good friends after working alongside one another with the Rams, including during L.A.’s Super Bowl run, and they both oversee similar offensive systems.

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford was having a vintage stretch midway through the season before a shaky finish, while Vikings counterpart Sam Darnold has enjoyed a career resurgence that could net him a life-changing contract in free agency.

Both teams have strong defenses, with the Rams settling in under first-year coordinator Chris Shula and Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores putting quarterbacks in a blender all season. The Rams allowed 24 total points from Weeks 15-17 before resting starters in the regular-season finale against the Seahawks, and the Vikings allowed the fifth-fewest points in the NFL while being tied for the league lead with 33 takeaways.

The 14-win Vikings should be plenty motivated to win on the road after losing the NFC North to the Lions with a clunker last Sunday night. Darnold was as erratic as he’s been all season, and the defense was again dominated by the Lions’ balanced attack.

“I think Minnesota bounces back,” an executive said. “I don’t think they put back-to-back duds out there like that.”

Counterpoint: They already have. Minnesota fell to the Lions and Rams in Weeks 7 and 8, although both games were close. The Sunday night blowout in Detroit was uncharacteristic for a team that was 3-3 against playoff opponents.

The Rams were 2-3 against postseason foes, also knocking off the Bills.

“Stafford and McVay are better than Darnold and Kevin O’Connell,” an executive said. “(But) can Flores fluster their plan?”

Flores has confounded a number of quarterbacks this season, including Brock Purdy, Stroud, Love, Kyler Murray and Geno Smith. Even when the Vikings are giving up yards, they create enough confusion to cause turnovers.

One panelist believed the teams’ familiarity will favor the Rams, and it goes beyond McVay and O’Connell. Flores and Rams offensive staffers Nick Caley and Jerry Schuplinski all worked together with the New England Patriots.

“Flores will play the same game plan that he’s used in the past against McVay,” the coach said. “Jerry Schuplinski and Nick Caley both know the weaknesses in Flores’ defense and will help Sean game plan to avoid past issues. Darnold will struggle coming off last week’s game, and the Rams defense will get after them.”

These organizations have an extensive playoff history, with the Vikings taking five of seven meetings, although they haven’t met on this stage in 25 years.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos: Todd Rosenberg, Cooper Neill / Getty Images)