Brazil have endured so many low ebbs over the past 15 years that it can be hard to remember them all.

The historically embarrassing 7-1 defeat to Germany at their own World Cup? Sure, but don’t forget the moronic reappointment of Dunga as coach in the immediate aftermath or the twin Copa America meltdowns of 2015 and 2016. The doomed, drawn-out pursuit of Carlo Ancelotti has to be on the list, too, as should about six other federation-level failures. You’d need a team of forensic experts to properly sift through all this rubble.

There is also a more recent option that might have passed you by. In November 2023, led by their second interim coach of the year, Brazil welcomed Argentina to Rio de Janeiro for a World Cup qualifier. They lost 1-0, a predictable result that nonetheless tipped the crisis-o-meter towards ‘existential’.

It was Brazil’s third defeat in the first six rounds of qualification. It left them sixth in the 10-team South American group. Venezuela, no one’s idea of a major football power, were above them in the standings. So were Ecuador and they had started the campaign with a points deduction.

The expansion of the World Cup and an extra automatic qualifying spot for the CONMEBOL region (there are now six, with an inter-continental play-off for the nation finishing seventh) ought to have reduced Brazil’s chances of failure to nought. Instead, they were flirting with disaster.

Sixteen months on, the situation is under control. A hard-fought victory over Colombia last week lifted Brazil to third. There is an eight-point buffer between them and seventh. We can say with some certainty that they will be at the 2026 World Cup. The drama is over.

That, though, is not to say that all is sunshine and roses. Indeed, as Brazil prepare to face Argentina for the first time since that reversal in Rio de Janeiro, there is a lingering sense of unease about the direction of travel.

Brazil’s results have improved, but it would be generous to say they have been playing well. They were stodgy in the extreme at last summer’s Copa America and recent matches have followed the same template: there are little spurts of inspiration, most of it individual, but also long periods when Brazil are fretful and frantic. They started well against Colombia but let all momentum seep away, as they often do.

Vinicius Junior’s late winner, a deflected strike from range, owed more to pluck and luck than any collective plan. “I hope it unlocks something,” Vinicius Jr said after the game. He is not the only one.

Dorival Junior, who took over as coach in January 2024, is a likeable character. He arrived with a reputation as a firefighter, someone who could avert the impending crisis. On that count, it’s job done. Mathematically, Brazil are safe. The question now is whether he has the tactical acumen to turn them into a proper team.

The jury is very much out on that one. He says he wants his star forwards — Rodrygo, Vinicius Jr, Raphinha — to play with freedom, but more structure is needed against organised defences. His system can leave Brazil’s two midfielders exposed and he is slow to react to shifts in the pattern of a match. “Sometimes it’s difficult to get your message across clearly,” he said after the Colombia game, an admission that was far more revealing than he can have intended.

Another line from his press conference — “We’ve seen a considerable improvement in every game” — drew the ire of the Brazilian press. “You need a magnifying glass to see any progress,” deadpanned Jessica Cescon of GloboEsporte. “We need something different, a gust of originality,” wrote Tostao, the former Brazil striker.

The juxtaposition with Argentina is a painful one on every level. Few would ever admit to such heresy, but all sensible Brazilian football fans will feel an acute pang of jealousy when they look across their southern border.

Most obviously, there are the trophies. Argentina won the World Cup in 2022, something Brazil have not managed in over two decades and don’t look like doing any time soon. The last two editions of the Copa America have gone Argentina’s way, too. Brazil won that competition in 2019, but that seems a long time ago now. For the past six years, this has been an incredibly one-sided rivalry.

Part of the charm of this period of Argentine dominance is that it was so unexpected. Argentina, like Brazil, spent the 2010s lurching between crises, yet found a winning lottery ticket down the back of the sofa. Lionel Scaloni has not solved every issue behind the scenes — he came close to walking away from the job last year after allegedly falling out with the federation hierarchy — but he has filtered out the noise and the nonsense to transformative effect. Brazil would kill for a little slice of the same.

Dorival Junior took over as Brazil head coach in January 2024 (Evaristo Sa/AFP via Getty Images)

On the pitch, Argentina are everything Brazil are not: settled, drilled, coherent. Obviously, the presence of a world-historical footballer is always likely to swing things in your favour, but Argentina know how to get by when Lionel Messi is absent, as he will be in Buenos Aires on Tuesday. This is Scaloni’s seventh year in charge and you can tell. Brazil’s players, as Marquinhos put it this week, “are still getting to know each other”; Argentina’s dogs of war know each other inside out.

Perhaps the most stark contrast, though, is to be found in the stands and in the streets.

It is impossible to think about Argentina’s World Cup win without remembering those amazing scenes of support and jubilation in the country’s cities: the swaying seas of fans in city squares, the tears, the singing, the lads clinging to telephone poles, hollering themselves hoarse.

Success always breeds attachment, but there is something extra here, genuine communion. Argentines do not just watch these players; they feel in tune with them, represented by them, ennobled by their many attributes. (And, less positively, defensive of their flaws.)

Things are different for Brazil. There is, understandably, no great groundswell of support for the Selecao in its current iteration. More interesting is the lack of any great national outrage about the team and its diminished standing. The overriding feelings are apathy and drift.

This is not a new phenomenon. Brazilian pundits have wrung their hands about the lack of connection between the national team and the public for years, maybe even decades. The players are asked about it all the time. Every game is painted as an opportunity to get people onside, to start forging a new, united front. It’s an impossible thing to track empirically, but the persistence of the discourse tells its own story.

A few factors are usually cited as reasons for the malaise. One is that many national team players have no real links with the Brazilian public, having left the domestic scene before playing much — or any — senior football. Another is that Brazil spent years playing friendlies all over the globe, prioritising revenue over kinship.

Then there are the usual, tired tropes about players caring more about their bank accounts and club teams than they do for their country, an argument completely undermined by the willingness of those same players to cross the Atlantic multiple times per year to get jeered whenever they don’t win 3-0. (It would be unfair to conduct any analysis of the team-fan relationship without noting the strains of entitlement and impatience that exist within the Brazilian fanbase.)

It’s not clear how you solve any of this. It’s not clear that you even can. The best hope, you’d say, is simply to start winning things — to kickstart a virtuous cycle that obscures all of the fissures, much as Argentina did when they appointed Scaloni in 2018.

As Brazil head to Buenos Aires, to another raucous stadium, to yet another exhibition of symbiosis between team and public, they will know that there is a path out of purgatory. Bottling lightning like Argentina did, however, will not be easy.

(Top photos: Getty Images)