An 11-year-old boy from Los Angeles who pulled the Paul Skenes MLB Debut Patch card will likely sell it for more money than Skenes will make from his 2025 base salary with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

With 56 bids as of Wednesday night, the gem-mint PSA 10 graded autographed one-of-one rookie card bearing the patch Skenes wore on his jersey sleeve during his Major League debut has a high bid of $550,000 as of this writing. That would mean with the auction house’s buyer’s premium (to be donated to the Los Angeles Fire Department and Red Cross), the new owner of the card would have to pony up $660,000 for one of the most hyped cards in the hobby.

And there’s still ample time for more bids, as the auction for the card on Fanatics Collect ends March 20.

At some point, Skenes could make $44 million per season if he continues his current trajectory. For now, though, the Pittsburgh Pirates All-Star pitcher will make a base salary of $800,000 this season, via Spotrac.

The Skenes MLB Debut Patch card already carries a price tag more than four times higher than the most expensive sale of one of his other cards. The previously high mark was set by the pitcher’s one-of-a-kind 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect autographed Superfractor card (PSA 7 card grade, 10 auto grade), which sold for $123,200 through Goldin Auctions last September.

Since the beginning of 2024, there have been 29 sales of individual cards for at least $500,000 documented by Card Ladder’s database. Only six cards in that period have sold publicly for more than where the Skenes card stands as of Wednesday morning:

• $1.37 million: 1916 M101-4 Sporting News Babe Ruth blank back rookie PSA 7 grade (Heritage)
• $1.2 million: 2003-04 Upper Deck Exquisite Collection LeBron James rookie patch autograph numbered 18 of 23; Beckett 8.5 card grade, 10 auto grade (Goldin)
• $1.0 million: 1955 Topps Roberto Clemente PSA 9 (Heritage)
• $860,100: 2023-24 Panini Prizm Victor Wembanyama Nebula Choice Prizm, numbered 1 of 1, PSA 9 (Goldin)
• $701,500: 1997 Skybox E-X 2001 Allen Iverson Essential Credentials Now, numbered 2 of 3, PSA 5 (Heritage)
• $579,500: 1997-98 SkyBox E-X 2001 Kobe Bryant Essential Credentials Now, numbered 1 of 8, Beckett 9 (Goldin)

(Shohei Ohtani’s record card sale came in November, when his 2018 Bowman Chrome Rookie Autographs Orange Refractor numbered to 25 in a Pristine BGS 10 grade sold for $533,140.)

The Skenes MLB Debut Patch card will push the $500,000 card tally one tick higher when the auction ends next week. But how high will this card ultimately go? Here are some guesses from The Athletic’s staff:

Larry Holder

I’ve been on record saying this card could reach the $1 million price tag. Is that too low given we’re more than halfway there already? What makes me believe this could be the case is what Nick Bell, CEO of Fanatics Collect and Fanatics Live, told me just before the auction for the card opened:

“I can tell you obviously we get a lot of inbound from this, and the inbound that we’ve received for this card is not only from big collectors who typically kind of circle this sort of card, but also from a bunch of non-collectors who are really interested in this card for their first kind of major acquisition in the space.”

The interest from the non-traditional crowd could make this card more unique than the top dollar Honus Wagner or Mickey Mantle cards. Those cards may sell for more, but there’s only one Skenes Debut Patch card and the hype surrounding it may be unmatched for a modern card.

So I’m still bullish on a seven-figure sale. I’ll guess $1.1 million will be the final bid.

Caleb Mezzy

When the Skenes MLB Debut Patch landed in the hands of an 11-year-old kid who declined the offers from everyone from the Pirates and Livvy Dunne to Ken Goldin, I predicted a wholesome $2 million.

Here’s why: First, there has been a chase spurred by the Pirates’ bounty offer that Willy Wonka would applaud. Then there’s Skenes himself, who is arguably the most generational pitching talent since Stephen Strasburg, when the sports card industry was much smaller. His talent and timing are the next ingredient.

Skenes also had an interesting path coming from a college baseball powerhouse in LSU, where he transferred in as a catcher with the Air Force. His story, 100-plus MPH fastball, NL Rookie of the Year season, and All-Star game start, are another element. Then there’s the story of the 11-year old kid who pulled the card and was kept anonymous by Topps to protect his privacy.

But possibly the biggest element in this is Paul Skenes’ famous girlfriend. If he’s the face of Debut Patches, she’s the face of NIL for the NCAA. Her celebrity status has brought attention to their relationship and this card, helping to draw in eyeballs and likely bids.

Dan Uthman

Skenes has the look of a generational pitcher, and he could get even better than he’s shown in his professional career. But we’re talking about a lot of money at a time when some financial portfolios have taken a hit. I see the ceiling as $1.5 million.

Craig Custance

There’s just so much buzz about this card that I think it blows well past $1 million and ends at $1.7 million. But we’re still talking about a pitcher, which generally isn’t a premium position in collecting so I’m not ready to push it over $2 million.

Brooks Peck

I have to admit that I didn’t think that bidding on the card would be this high already, but it’s become clear that the interest in this card has transcended the usual collector circles thanks to all those factors Caleb laid out above. But how high can those elements push the bidding? Narrative aside, it’s hard to justify a seven-figure value on the card. Pitchers generally aren’t as valued as hitters in the hobby and they also carry a significant risk for long-term injury. While the MLB Debut Patch cards are incredibly unique items that are just starting to find their footing in the space, no other Debut Patch card has sold anywhere close to where the Skenes card is already at. But with all that said, you can no longer divorce the narrative from the card. It has probably become the most widely recognized and pop-culture relevant baseball card of the last 25-30 years. For that reason, I now think it’ll go over $1 million, but $2 million still seems like a bridge too far. So I’ll say it lands around $1.4 million.

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(Top photo: Joe Sargent/MLB Photos via Getty Images)