This weekend brings us the 107th version of the Backyard Brawl as Pittsburgh looks to improve on its 2-0 start against West Virginia in college football’s Week 3 action on Saturday.
Pitt lost this game a year ago and slumped to a 3-9 mark, the worst record in head coach Pat Narduzzi’s time with the school, but quarterback Eli Holstein appears to have rejuvenated this offense so far, ranking 12th nationally in passing output and 28th in scoring offense.
West Virginia recovered from its season-opening loss to Penn State by routing Albany the week after and comes into this matchup as the slight favorite, needing to beef up an attack that ranks 74th nationally in scoring and 88th in passing production.
What do the analytics say about the matchup? Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Pittsburgh and West Virginia compare in this Week 3 college football game.
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The simulations currently favor the road team in this game, but by a very slim margin.
SP+ predicts that West Virginia will defeat Pittsburgh by a projected score of 30 to 27 and to win the game by an expected 3.1 points overall.
The model gives the Mountaineers a slight 58 percent chance of outright victory.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a 51.6 win percentage.
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West Virginia is a 1.5 point favorite against Pittsburgh, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 63.5 points for the game.
FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for West Virginia at -126 to win outright and for Pittsburgh at +105.
If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take …
Other analytical models take a different view and favor the Panthers over the Mountaineers.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
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Pittsburgh is projected to win the game outright in 52.6 percent of the computer’s updated simulations, while West Virginia comes out the winner in the remaining 47.4 percent of sims.
The index forecasts a very close game, but sides with West Virginia to be 0.7 points better than Pittsburgh on the same field, not enough to cover this spread.
West Virginia will win 5.8 games this season and sits sixth from the bottom among Big 12 teams with a 2.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.
The models project Pittsburgh will win 6.8 games and have a 3.4 percent shot at the 12-team playoff, ranking ninth in the ACC in that category.
The West Virginia Mountaineers (10-3) welcome the Maryland Terrapins (10-5) to Kendrick Family Ballpark Tuesday afternoon the first encounter between the two programs since 2023 and the first meeting in Morgantown since 2018. The first pitch is set for 2:00 p.m. EST and the action will stream on ESPN+.
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The Mountaineers captured their fourth consecutive series of the season after taking two of the three games from Columbia over the weekend. West Virginia sophomore Matt Ineich and senior Brodie Kresser both blasted grand slams during the series. Ineich lifted WVU in game two with a walk-off grand slam in the 10th in game two, and Kresser ignited a 16-1 rout, capping a six-run second inning in the series finale.
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Gavin Kelly leads West Virginia at the plate with a .436 batting average with a Big 12 leading nine doubles. Ineich and senior Paul Schoenfeld has raked in a team-leading 16 RBI apiece, while senior Matthew Graveline has clubbed a team-high three home runs.
On the mound, West Virginia is expected to start sophomore David Hagen. The right-hander has made four appearances on the season, including one start. He last started in the home-opener against Ohio where he pitched two scoreless innings and recorded a strikeout to collect his first win of the season. He holds a 1.00 ERA with five strikeouts on the season.
After starting 3-4, Maryland is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Terrapins won two of three at UNC Wilmington in the season opening series, followed by a midweek win against Georgetown before getting swept at Louisiana. The Terps bounced back with a pair of midweek wins versus Delaware and swept a one-win Wagner team.
Junior Brayden Martin is batting a team-best .443 to go with four doubles and 12 RBI. Redshirt freshman Ryan Costello leads the Terps in home runs (9) and RBI (21) and is third in batting average at .328, while freshman Ty Kaunus has a team-high seven doubles and has .269 batting average.
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Maryland is scheduled to start freshman Nic Morlang. The right-hander has four appearances on the season, including four starts. He allowed five earned runs in his appearances, coinciding with his two starts, in six innings of work. In his last two appearances in relief, He’s allowed one earned run on five hits.
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West Virginia leads the all-time series 8-5, including a five-game winning streak over Maryland.
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. — Multiple law enforcement agencies responded to a series of parties in Morgantown over the weekend.
Morgantown police officers, West Virginia University Police and state police responded to reports of overcrowded parties, underage drinking, physical altercations and multiple injuries.
Morgantown Communications Director Brad Riffie said several citations were issued for open containers and underage consumption.
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Two large parties were dispersed and six arrests were made without incident.
None of the reported injuries are believed to be serious or life-threatening.
The Morgantown Fire Department assisted in the operations.
Hancock County, WV — A Weir High School senior has been recognized as the 2026 West Virginia Student Journalist of the Year.
Hailey Hans was selected for the statewide honor after building a journalism portfolio since her freshman year. She also serves as the staff manager of Weir Student Media, where she oversees articles and is in charge of deadlines.
“When I was a freshman I was placed in the journalism one class, and I actually tried to get pulled from the class. But, then after I sat in the class and I learned a little bit, that’s where my love grew and then from there I continued to take classes, I helped pass a law, and I got to these national conventions. Where it just lit a fire inside me,” Hans said.
Hans is planning to attend West Liberty University in the fall to study education with a minor in journalism, with the goal of becoming a journalism teacher. She will now submit her portfolio for the national-level contest.
