West Virginia Poll: Justice has edge in Senate race; Moore Capito out ahead in race for governor – WV MetroNews

In the race for U.S. Senate, Gov. Jim Justice has a strong advantage over Congressman Alex Mooney in the Republican primary and an edge over incumbent Joe Manchin in a possible General Election matchup.

And new polling shows that in the Republican race for governor, Delegate Moore Capito is leading a field that also includes Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, businessman Chris Miller and Secretary of State Mac Warner.

Those snapshots are according to the most recent MetroNews West Virginia Poll results released this morning at the annual business summit hosted by the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce.

The poll included 402 interviews with registered voters across all 55 counties from August 16 to 26. The confidence level is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

The poll shows Justice with 58 percent of the likely vote in the Republican primary for Senate, compared to Mooney’s 26 percent. Sixteen percent of Republican voters said they are not yet sure.

Justice has a narrower but still substantial lead over incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Manchin if they meet in the General Election, with Justice at 51 percent and Manchin at 38 percent. Eleven percent were not sure.

“I expected the governor to run strongly in our MetroNews West Virginia Poll against Alex Mooney, but he also is running strong against Joe Manchin,” said Rex Repass, president of Research America, which conducted the poll.

“We all know from following Joe Manchin’s career over the years that he can be and has historically been a strong candidate,” Repass said. “He is well-known, and I would expect that if that is the race it would tighten up considerably. But certainly Jim Justice has, at this early date, an advantage.”

If Manchin and Mooney are matched up, it could be a squeaker. In that case, 45 percent say they would vote for Manchin compared to 41 percent for Mooney. The remainder are unsure.

Mooney, a Charles Town resident, has been elected to Congress every cycle since 2014 and last year defeated fellow Republican incumbent David McKinley in a combined district across the northern counties of West Virginia.

Now Mooney is setting sights on Manchin.

“In that race, just because of the history that Joe Manchin has and the ability to win tight races even though West Virginia is a deep red state, I wouldn’t call it a toss up — and I think Alex Mooney might have the advantage because of the ideological position that most West Virginia voters take — but again given Joe Manchin’s historic strength statewide it could be a tight race,” Repass said.

Manchin has not yet said if he is running for Senate re-election. Manchin, first elected in 2012, has said he will reach a decision by late this year or early next year. He is frequently mentioned as a possible third party candidate for president.

A poll question asked respondents what Manchin should do next year.

A plurality, 40 percent, said he should retire from office. Yet 36 percent said he should run for another term in the Senate. And 24 percent said he should run for president as a third party candidate.

Of those who said Manchin should run as a third party candidate, eight in ten indicated they would be very or somewhat likely to vote for him.

The poll asked about job favorability for Justice and Manchin.

The results showed that approval ratings for Justice, a two-term governor, have gone down somewhat since 2021. That year, 61 percent of respondents said they approve of Justice. Now that number stating approval is 56 percent.

For Manchin, 42 percent of respondents in 2021 said they approve of his performance. Now, 51 percent of respondents say they approve.

“Looking at their job approval ratings, Governor Justice is down slightly and Senator Manchin is up, which could be a leading indicator of satisfaction versus a hypothetical race for Senate,” Repass said. “People do have strong opinions of Senator Manchin and Governor Justice. You don’t see a large ‘not sure’ category.”

In the multi-candidate Republican race for governor, the poll shows 32 percent favoring Capito, who is the House Judiciary chairman and son of U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito.

Twenty-three percent favor Morrisey, who has served as Attorney General since 2013.

Nine percent favor Miller, an automobile dealer who is the son of Congresswoman Carol Miller.

Seven percent favor Warner, who has served as Secretary of State since 2017.

“I’d never underestimate Patrick Morrisey running for statewide office. He nearly upset Joe Manchin in the Senate race in 2018, and he’s run strong statewide in three elections (for Attorney General). So it’s early, and I also think Moore Capito has the advantage of the family name,” Repass said.

“It will be interesting as we go through the election season to see how the poll numbers change, how strategies are executed and how this could change over time.”

Many people are still deciding. Twenty-nine percent described themselves as “not sure” about the candidates for governor.

“The most important thing is the 29 percent who are really not sure,” Repass said. “So there’s an opportunity for all of these candidates to make some inroads either against Morrisey or against Moore Capito.”

At the top of ballots, 66 percent of respondents said they disapprove of the job being done by President Joe Biden, while 26 percent said they approve. Biden’s popularity in West Virginia has continued a downward trend since the last time the question was asked in 2021.

“Whether it’s handling of the economy, the inflation issue, interest rates, there is definite downward trend in terms of popularity of President Biden moving into an election year,” Repass said. “His negatives are up significantly.”

Former President Trump’s popularity has gone down somewhat in West Virginia, according to the poll.

Right now, 49 percent said they approve of Trump compared to 39 percent who said they disapprove. Twelve percent were unsure about Trump, who is the front-runner for the Republican nomination for president while also facing four criminal indictments.

In 2020, Trump’s approval in West Virginia was 56 percent.

“He obviously still has a lot of strength, a lot of support in West Virginia. But with his legal troubles, you do see a dip in overall satisfaction or favorability or approval of the job he is doing in terms of running for president in 2024,” Repass said. “So that’s starting to take a little bit of a toll perceptually on Trump in West Virginia.”