NORFOLK, Virginia — Six months out from November, Virginia Democrats believe the governor’s race is Abigail Spanberger’s to lose.

There’s a risk the former member of Congress could get bogged down by national malaise toward the Democratic Party, and her margins could end up being tight because of the negative Democratic brand.

But Democrats are hopeful that Spanberger can overcome that national dynamic. She flipped a competitive district in 2018 that stretches into rural Southwest Virginia and she benefits from the unpopular actions of President Donald Trump. His stop-and-start trade war coupled with the elimination of thousands of federal jobs and looming Medicaid cuts are widely unwelcome in the Commonwealth. Spanberger enjoys strong name recognition and is far out-fundraising her opponent, a candidate who even some fellow Republicans are wincing about.

A sweeping Democratic victory this fall could spook Republicans in Congress over their inaction to Trump’s aggressive agenda and provide a blueprint for staying laser focused on kitchen table issues like economic uncertainty and federal belt-tightening that the party can ride into the midterms next year.

“If we can get these people to vote we’re going to smoke them,” Virginia House Speaker Don Scott said. “We just got to get them to vote. That’s the fear — apathy.”

Spanberger, speaking with reporters ahead of a campaign event in the battleground region of Hampton Roads last week, shrugged off the fact that her campaign is under the national spotlight. She said the operation is “totally grounded” in Virginia and the “issues and priorities that matter here.”

“If that ends up setting a good example for other people running other places, then that’s their choice,” she said before entering a packed event full of local elected officials, donors and supporters in Norfolk, to mark the launch of her affordability agenda calling for lowering health care and prescription drug costs. She’s readying forthcoming plans to address other strains on Virginians’ budgets.

Selling strong messages on affordable housing, rural hospitals and public schools will help Democrats appeal to the more conservative parts of the state in Southwest and Central Virginia, said Aaron Rouse, a state senator and one of six Democrats running for lieutenant governor. Spanberger is “doing everything right so far,” he said.

Spanberger raised $6.7 million in the first quarter, dwarfing the $3.1 million brought in by opponent Winsome Earle-Sears, the lieutenant governor who was limited by state law from fundraising during the state legislative session earlier this year.

Early polling shows Spanberger is in a strong position: A Roanoke College survey this month showed her with a 17 percentage point lead, and more than half of respondents believe the country is on the wrong track. Another poll put the race at a much tighter margin, with Spanberger leading by four points.

But Spanberger’s campaign may run into the strong negative headwinds around the Democratic Party, which has been trying to reverse pessimistic attitudes toward its leaders. National Democrats believe that if Spanberger can broaden her appeal beyond the blue strongholds of Northern Virginia by convincingly talking about kitchen table issues, that will give them a much-needed morale boost and help guide them in the midterms.

Spanberger is focusing her campaign for governor on how she plans to lower costs – and blaming Trump in Washington and term-limited Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin in Richmond for making life more expensive. Virginia’s off-year elections are viewed as a referendum on the party controlling Washington, and Democrats are feeling confident as Trump’s DOGE cuts come down hard on Virginia’s robust federal workforce.

A recent analysis from the University of Virginia found that the state is projected to lose more than 9,000 government jobs, propelling a downturn in employment that is worrying state leaders.

“[Trump] creates the general political environment that you’re in,” said Virginia-based Democratic strategist Ben Tribbett. “She’s done a pretty good job of surfing that wave, of bringing more people into the party when they’re not happy with what the Trump administration is doing.”

November turnout may answer how much Democrats can count on Trump’s disassembling of the federal government as a motivating issue in the midterms. Virginia Democrats, confident that Elon Musk’s unpopularity will linger even as his term as a special government employee has expired, point to Department of Defense workers and contractors living in the more competitive Hampton Roads area who lost their jobs as evidence that anger over DOGE is not just limited to the northern part of the state.

Youngkin has defended the cuts as necessary to trim government waste, and encouraged out-of-work Virginians to pursue other open jobs in the state. His office has created a website to connect former federal workers to new positions. Earle-Sears was captured on leaked audio in April saying that “we don’t want people to lose their jobs” but downplayed the losses.

“Abigail Spanberger is dusting off the same worn-out playbook that cost Democrats the governor’s mansion in 2021,” said Peyton Vogel, press secretary for the Earle-Sears campaign, in a statement, referring to when Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe. “Back then, Virginians rejected fear mongering messaging and chose a leader with real solutions to make life more affordable and move the Commonwealth forward. Spanberger’s current strategy failed then, and replaying it now won’t change the outcome.”

Moderate Democrats see Spanberger as the ideal candidate to confirm their view that the party should shift toward the middle. In 2018, she defeated Tea Partier Rep. Dave Brat in an upset, joining the wave of women elected to Congress on a wave of anti-Trump energy. But Trump is much more popular than he was in his first term, so appealing to his voters becomes a crucial part of the comeback strategy.

In her first campaign ad launched this week, Spanberger highlighted her bipartisan voting record while serving in Congress. In 2022, after Democrats came close to losing the House, she was captured on leaked audio criticizing Democrats for embracing positions defunding the police and warned them to “never use the word socialism again.”

“Her biggest vulnerability is being a Democrat in this moment, but she is sufficiently defining herself as a different kind of Democrat,” said Matt Bennett, co-founder of the center-left group Third Way. “She watched carefully what happened to us in 2024 and is trying not to make the same mistakes, just trying to keep her focus on the things that voters actually care about and not get distracted by things that they don’t.”

Democrats view Hampton Roads, a competitive area that Spanberger needs to win, as the epicenter of several of Trump’s policies. In addition to DOGE layoffs, the Port of Virginia located here is bracing for a decline in shipments from other major trading partners.

It’s also a popular vacation destination for America’s neighbors to the north. Virginia Beach State Del. Michael Feggans, a Democrat running for reelection in one of the most competitive state legislative races, said he’s heard from local business leaders concerned about the decline of Canadian tourists annoyed by Trump’s annexation talk. Democrats are aiming to expand their one-seat majority in the state House, and are adopting a similar economic message as Spanberger to try to make that happen.

“He said on day one he was going to fix the price of everything and bring world peace, and there’s been nothing but chaos, confusion, and people are scared and people are worried,” Feggens said.

Virginia Republicans, on the other hand, are banking on DOGE being a distant memory when voters head to the polls in November. Those Republicans are skeptical that Spanberger’s anti-Trump message will resonate beyond the Democratic base, and they insist that swayable voters.

“Her entire message seems to be: Trump sucks,” said a Republican operative granted anonymity to speak freely. “When you get down to brass tacks, people want to see what exactly are you going to do.”