NORFOLK, Va. — Political observers have already placed bets on Tim Kaine, predicting the Democrat will glide into a third term as the junior U.S. Senator of Virginia, a state that hasn’t elected a Republican to the upper chamber since 2002.
Virginia
Navy vet has Trump's nod ahead of Virginia's US Senate primary, targets Tim Kaine in uphill battle
“The only person that was better off today than they were four years ago is an illegal alien,” Republican candidate Hung Cao, a 25-year Navy veteran who served in combat zones, told The Associated Press.
Cao has the most campaign money and past experience running for higher office in a general election among the five contenders in the primary on June 18. He also has the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, who stated that Cao would help stop inflation, secure the border and “defend our always under siege Second Amendment.”
Cao’s biography includes fleeing Vietnam with his family as a child in the 1970s. In a campaign video, he compares Vietnam’s communist regime during the Cold War to today’s Biden Administration.
“We are losing our country,” Cao says in the ad, which blames Biden for the criminal cases against Trump and shows footage of border crossings and store lootings. “You know it. But you also know that you can’t say it. We’re forced to say that wrong is right. We’re forced to lie.”
Cao told the AP that Kaine is a “rubber stamp” for Biden, while the GOP base is energized to end Kaine’s 30-year political career.
“If you want the nice guy up there, I’m not your guy,” Cao added. “If you want somebody to go in and kick some tail, I’m your guy that’s going to get this done.”
But whether Cao or anyone else in the primary can get it done is a big question. Political scientists say there’s a narrow path to victory for the GOP given Virginia’s moderate electorate, aversion to Trump in 2020 and Kaine’s salience with voters.
The most recent Republican from Virginia to hold a U.S. Senate seat was the late John Warner, a centrist with an independent streak who last won in 2002.
Kaine won his last race in 2018 by 16 percentage points. He has said he’s preparing for a tough race this year and noted that “Virginians will vote for Republicans in statewide elections,” as they did in 2021 for Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
“Nobody can take that for granted,” Kaine said when he announced his reelection bid.
Still, Kaine’s seat is listed as solidly Democratic by the nation’s three big political prognosticators: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia.
“This is definitely an uphill climb for the Republican Party in this state, particularly with a candidate who could be more easily tied to Trump,” said Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, a Christopher Newport University political science professor and research director of its Wason Center for Civic Leadership.
Besides Cao, the primary candidates include Scott Parkinson, a former congressional staffer for Ron DeSantis who now works for the conservative economic policy group Club for Growth. Jonathan Emord is an author and lawyer who often cites his experience successfully fighting the Food and Drug Administration in court.
Eddie Garcia is a U.S. Army veteran and former Army liaison in Congress who owns a mobile app that serves military veterans. Chuck Smith is a Marine veteran, former Navy JAG commander and an attorney.
Cao stands out for his Trump endorsement as well as his campaign war chest. As of March 31, he’s raised $2 million, more than double what any of his rival’s have, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
Cao also made a decent showing in 2022 against Democratic U.S. Rep. Jennifer Wexton in blue-leaning northern Virginia. He lost the race by 6.5 percentage points in a district that Biden won two years earlier by 19 percentage points.
“I don’t have to win northern Virginia,” Cao said of his general election strategy. “I just need to move it the way I did.”
Cao has not escaped controversy. The Staunton News Leader reported that his Unleash America super PAC made zero campaign contributions to Republicans running for the statehouse in 2023, even though that was the PAC’s stated goal. It had raised about $100,000 in individual contributions.
Cao told the AP the story was “a hit job” and “there’s no there there.” He elaborated further to radio host John Fredericks, stating that the money had to go to start-up fees, lawyers and “compliance people.”
The News Leader reported that the PAC’s expenses included legal fees and money for digital fundraising, a communications firm and Cao’s campaign manager. Cao later told podcast host Alec Lace that he did nothing illegal and that the story was published by a “podunk local newspaper.”
The matter prompted attacks from some of Cao’s primary opponents and Democrats. But if Cao wins the primary, it will likely be a miniature scandal compared to the challenge of winning over moderate voters, said Bromley-Trujillo, the Christopher Newport University professor.
It’s a challenge all of the primary candidates would face, she said. They’ve run campaigns that are mostly to the right of Republican Gov. Youngkin’s successful race three years ago. And she doesn’t expect any to pivot toward the center after clamoring for Trump’s endorsement.
As a candidate in 2021, Youngkin did not disavow Trump but he kept him at a distance. Youngkin also focused on state and local issues, such as parents’ frustrations over pandemic school closures and pitching an end to the state’s grocery tax.
The governor’s race was the most recent opportunity for GOP candidates to win statewide office, with a Republican lieutenant governor and Attorney General scoring wins alongside Youngkin.
Youngkin, however, won by two percentage points. And J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, questions whether Youngkin would have succeeded if the race occurred after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the national right to an abortion in 2022.
“Virginia tends to be a little redder in those odd numbered years because maybe state issues are more the focus or Democratic enthusiasm might just be lower in those years,” Coleman said.
Still, in 2023, Democrats who campaigned on protecting abortion rights retook full control of Virginia’s General Assembly. It marked a sharp loss for Youngkin and his proposed 15-week abortion ban with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.
Meanwhile, Coleman said Kaine has a reputation as a dad-like figure who is pretty relatable. He’s won all of his statewide races, including as governor and technically as a vice presidential candidate in 2016, when he and Hillary Clinton carried the Commonwealth.
“Virginia is a blue state but it’s not California or Massachusetts,” Coleman added. “And once you get west of Charlottesville there is a lot of Republican turf. It’s usually pretty Democratic, but Republicans can win here if everything falls into place for them.”
FAIRFAX COUNTY, Va. — A victims’ rights advocacy group and the mother of a murder victim have filed a formal complaint with the U.S. Department of Justice, alleging that Fairfax County Commonwealth’s Attorney Steve Descano is prioritizing the interests of illegal immigrants over public safety.
The complaint, filed by the Victims Rights Reform Council (VRRC) on behalf of Cheryl Minter, the mother of Stephanie Minter, seeks a federal investigation into whether the prosecutor’s office violated equal protection standards.
The core of the complaint centers on the death of Stephanie Minter, who was killed at a Fairfax bus stop on February 23. The suspect, Abdul Jalloh, is an illegal immigrant with a history of violent offenses.
READ | Illegal immigrant accused in deadly Virginia stabbing previously picked up by ICE in 2018
According to the filing, Fairfax County Police had repeatedly warned prosecutors about Jalloh’s behavior prior to the killing.
Documentation cited in the complaint includes warnings from law enforcement that Jalloh showed a “blatant disregard for human life” and was a “danger to the community.”
SEE ALSO | ICE held Abdul Jalloh for nearly 2 years before judge’s ruling forced his release
The VRRC argues that Jalloh’s release was a direct result of a written office policy titled “Consideration of Immigration Consequences.” The policy instructs prosecutors to negotiate case resolutions that “avoid or lessen” collateral immigration consequences, such as deportation.
“My daughter died because Fairfax prosecutors chose ideology over safety, favoritism over equal justice, and leniency for an illegal immigrant over protection for innocent citizens,” Cheryl Minter said in the complaint.
MORE | Family of murdered mother pushing for recall of Fairfax County prosecutor Steve Descano
The controversy is also moving toward Capitol Hill. Descano was called to testify on May 14 before the House Judiciary immigration subcommittee, where lawmakers are expected to examine the impact of local sanctuary-style policies on community safety.
ARLINGTON, Va. (7News) — After months of television ads, mailings, and debates, Virginia voters head to the polls Tuesday to vote on whether to approve a redistricting measure that would radically change Congressional maps in order to favor Democrats.
The measure has the potential to determine which party controls Congress after the midterm elections this fall.
ALSO READ | Virginia redistricting vote draws national attention
Virginia polling locations will be open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. The election is unusual in that there are no names of candidates on the ballot. Instead, there is just one question to vote yes or no on:
“Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia’s standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census?”
A yes vote would likely lead to a new map that would be expected to give Democrats a 10 to one edge in Virginia’s Congressional delegation. Under the current map, Democrats have six seats and Republicans have five.
Supporters of voting yes said the measure is in response to states like Texas that have gerrymandered in favor of Republicans winning House seats. But opponents who urge a no vote point out the measure would make Virginia one of the most gerrymandered states in the nation, and would create districts in which many voters don’t share common interests with each other.
The vote is expected to be close.
“It seems to me that a strong turnout effort on election day can give either side a win,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington. “The big challenge for both the yes and the no side is to get people who will support them if they turn out to actually do soI think anybody who is not strongly committed one side or the other is likely to stay home.”
ALSO READ | Virginia voters to decide redistricting that could flip 4 GOP seats
Advertisements and messaging from both sides have left some voters confused. For example, both supporters and opponents of the measure have referenced Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger. She supports the measure to counterbalance Republican actions elsewhere, but in the past she has made strong statements against the type of gerrymandering the ballot measure would allow.
“Usually when people are confused, they don’t vote. Some of them do, but most of them don’t,” said Larry Sabato, the director of The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
Sabato said it’s tough to predict which side will win. Even though the limited polling that’s been done has given a narrow edge to the yes vote, data related to early voting may tell a different story.
“Normally, you would think given Virginia’s pretty strong Democratic lean, that this very partisan referendum would be enough to generate Democratic turnout for Democrats to win,” he said. “But I’ll tell you why people are hesitant – they’ve seen large turnouts in conservative, Republican areas. Because [voters in those areas] are mad. Their representatives are being eliminated through this process.”
“This is going to be tied very closely to how one feels about President Trump,” Farnsworth said. “The people who don’t like President Trump will vote in favor of this amendment. The people who do like President Trump will vote against it.”
It’s not clear how many people will actually show up at the polls on election day Tuesday.
“People who were very interested in this, who were knowledgeable about the subject, probably voted early for the most part,” Sabato said.
Mail-in ballots can still be dropped off at official drop boxes until 7 p.m. on Tuesday, and if they are mailed they need to be postmarked by Tuesday and received by noon on Friday.
WASHINGTON — Virginia Senator Mark Warner and Lisa Collis are mourning the loss of their daughter Madison.
The 36-year-old died after a “decades-long battle with juvenile diabetes,” the couple said in a statement
“We are heartbroken beyond words by the passing of our beloved daughter,” the statement read. “She filled our lives with love and laughter, and her absence leaves an immeasurable void.”
Warner and Collis said they were are grateful for the loving support of friends and family and asked for privacy as they grieve.
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