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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Virginia's state primaries

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Virginia's state primaries


WASHINGTON — Incumbents’ dominance in the 2024 congressional primaries will be put to the test in Virginia on Tuesday.

While Virginia Democrats head to the polls to fill two open seats in the U.S. House, Republican voters could replace House Freedom Caucus chair Bob Good, who faces a primary challenge in the 5th Congressional District. Ex-President Donald Trump endorsed his challenger, state Sen. John McGuire, highlighting the balancing act that the most ideologically strident members of Congress must walk to stay on Trump’s good side. Good endorsed one of Trump’s early challengers, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, in this year’s presidential primaries.

If Good loses, he would be the first House incumbent to go down to a primary challenge this year, with the exception of one race in which two incumbents faced off due to redistricting.

Good was also among eight Republicans who voted to oust then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who has allies in the Republican Main Street Partnership, a group that says it’s “dedicated to working to enact commonsense legislation.” The super PAC affiliated with those House Republicans, Defending Main Street, aired ads backing McGuire, while a super PAC affiliated with the Freedom Caucus aired ads supporting Good.

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Good previously won the nomination to his seat through a convention, where only state delegates vote for the nominee. This will be Good’s first time running for this seat in a traditional primary, with an electorate that spans beyond the most active participants of the party.

Even though Trump endorsed his opponent, Good is campaigning on his loyalty to Trump, even showing up to his trial in New York. Trump comfortably carried the 5th District in 2020 and 2016.

In the 7th Congressional District, Democrats will choose their nominee to replace Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who’s running for governor in 2025. Eugene Vindman, a former ethics lawyer at the National Security Council, had raised roughly 15 times his nearest rival as of May 29. Vindman is popular among Democratic activists due to his involvement in reporting a 2019 call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that led to Trump’s first impeachment.

The Republican primary has pitted House Freedom Caucus members, who support Navy veteran Cameron Hamilton, against members of House leadership, who are backing Army veteran Derrick Anderson.

In the 10th District, Democrats are choosing a successor to Rep. Jennifer Wexton, who’s not running for reelection after her diagnosis with a brain disease. A dozen Democrats are running to replace her.

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In the 2nd District, two Democrats are on the ballot to take on Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans in a district that Joe Biden narrowly carried in the 2020 presidential contest against Trump. Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal is the leading fundraiser in the primary, with endorsements from former Govs. Ralph Northam and Terry McAuliffe, along with Spanberger and Wexton. She faces constitutional law attorney Jake Denton.

In the U.S. Senate, Trump endorsed Navy veteran Hung Cao for the Republican nomination. Cao faces Scott Parkinson, who has endorsements from Good and multiple U.S. senators and representatives. Constitutional lawyer and conservative columnist Jonathan Emord had spent nearly $900,000 on the primary as of the latest filing deadline, just ahead of Parkinson, who has spent $600,000, but significantly behind Cao, who had spent nearly $2.4 million. Army veteran Eddie Garcia and Marine veteran Chuck Smith are on the ballot also.

Here’s what to expect Tuesday:

PRIMARY DAY

The primary will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

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WHAT’S ON THE BALLOT

The Associated Press will provide coverage for 10 contested races: six Democratic primaries for the U.S. House, three Republican primaries for the House, and a Republican primary for the U.S. Senate.

WHO GETS TO VOTE

Virginia has an open primary system, which means any registered voter may choose to participate in one party’s primary.

DECISION NOTES

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In the 5th Congressional district, Good’s base of support is in the central and western parts of the district around Lynchburg and Campbell County, where he previously served on the board of supervisors. In the state Senate, McGuire represents counties in the northeastern portion of the district, including Powhatan and Goochland counties and parts of Hanover County. A potentially deciding factor in the contest is which candidate carries the more moderate and highly educated areas around Charlottesville and parts of Albemarle County.

In the 7th District, the Democratic field includes four current and former elected officials from Prince William County, which makes up more than a third of the district and could be a decisive factor in the race: former state Del. Elizabeth Guzman, state Del. Briana Sewell, and County Board of Supervisors members Andrea Bailey and Margaret Franklin. Two other Democratic candidates, military veterans Carl Bedell and Cliff Heinzer, have not held office.

In the Republican primary, Anderson led Republicans in fundraising as of the latest filing deadline, bringing in $1.1 million. Hamilton raised $722,000.

Loudoun County makes up a majority of the 10th Congressional District, which also includes parts of Prince William County and a sliver of Fairfax County. State Del. Dan Helmer is the top fundraiser in the race. Helmer and state Sen. Jennifer Boysko represent part of Fairfax County, as did former state House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn.

Wexton endorsed state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, a former policy adviser to the Obama administration who represents parts of Loudoun County. Del. David Reid also represents Loudoun. Loudoun County resident Krystle Kaul is a political newcomer but has loaned her campaign more than $500,000.

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Former Virginia Education Secretary Atif Qarni lives in Manassas, which falls within the district, and state Del. Michelle Maldonado represents Manassas, Manassas Park and part of Prince William County.

There are a handful more candidates on the ballot who could further splinter the vote, lowering the threshold a candidate needs to win a plurality of the vote and making the race especially unpredictable.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there’s no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

In Virginia, a candidate may request a recount if the margin separating two candidates is less than 1 percentage point.

WHAT DO TURNOUT AND ADVANCE VOTE LOOK LIKE?

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As of June 1, there were 6,230,102 registered voters in Virginia. Voters in Virginia do not register with a political party.

In the 2022 Republican primary elections, turnout was 7% of registered voters in the 2nd and 7th congressional districts. In the 8th District Democratic primary, turnout was 10%.

In the 2024 presidential race, 44% of ballots in the Democratic primary and 16% of Republican ballots were cast before Election Day.

As of Wednesday, a total of 92,600 advance votes had been cast in the Democratic primary, including about 69% mail ballots and 31% absentee in-person ballots. In the Republican primary, 57,881 advance ballots had been cast, including 55% mail ballots and 45% absentee in person.

HOW LONG DOES VOTE-COUNTING USUALLY TAKE?

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In the 2022 7th District Republican primary election, the AP first reported results at 7:10 p.m. ET, or 10 minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 9:15 p.m. ET with more than 99% of total votes counted.

ARE WE THERE YET?

As of Tuesday, there will be 140 days until the November general election.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.

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Murphy, Pancol combine for three TD plays as Duke beats Virginia Tech 31-28

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Murphy, Pancol combine for three TD plays as Duke beats Virginia Tech 31-28


DURHAM, N.C. — Maalik Murphy’s three touchdown passes to Eli Pancol helped Duke overcome his three interceptions in a 31-28 win over slumping Virginia Tech on Saturday night.

Pancol racked up 188 yards receiving on five catches and Duke (8-3, 4-3 Atlantic Coast Conference), which had only nine first downs until the last four minutes, held on for its second victory in a row.

Virginia Tech’s Bhayshul Tuten rushed for 84 yards and a late touchdown, but the Hokies (5-6, 3-4) lost their third consecutive game.

With quarterback Kyron Drones out with an injury, Virginia Tech used Collin Schlee as the starter before turning to William Watson III. Schlee threw for one touchdown, while Watson fired for 140 yards and reached the end zone on a two-point conversion run for the game’s final points with 9:19 to play.

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Duke overcame four turnovers. The Blue Devils had the ball at Virginia Tech’s 16-yard line with a first down before Star Thomas fumbled, with the Hokies taking over with 1:44 remaining. They didn’t pick up a first down.

Duke’s 14-0 lead less than 6½ minutes into the game came from Murphy’s 86-yard connection with Pancol on the team’s first snap. The hooked up for a 77-yard TD play on the next possession.

Virginia Tech scored 17 straight points, with Schlee’s 65-yard pass play to Ali Jennings providing the team’s first points. Ayden Greene had a 21-yard TD run. Jennings posted 158 yards receiving.

Duke’s Star Thomas (17) stretches for extra yards in the grasp of Virginia Tech’s Mansoor Delane, back, during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Durham, N.C., Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. Credit: AP/Karl B DeBlaker

The takeaway

Virginia Tech: The Hokies remain a victory shy of bowl eligibility with one game remaining. They had three possessions with a chance to tie or take the lead in the final eight minutes but managed only 20 yards combined on those series.

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Duke: The Blue Devils had enough big plays, but the rushing attack has pretty much been abandoned until a couple of late drives. The defense that had been so stout for portions of the season had some holes, but the unit buckled up down the stretch. The only blemish on Duke’s 5-1 home record is an overtime loss to SMU.

Up next

Virginia Tech: at home Saturday vs. Virginia

Duke: Saturday at Wake Forest

Duke's Star Thomas (17) tries to run the ball away...

Duke’s Star Thomas (17) tries to run the ball away from Virginia Tech’s Jaden Keller (24) and Mansoor Delane (4) during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Durham, N.C., Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. Credit: AP/Karl B DeBlaker

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Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football

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5 thoughts from SMU-Virginia: Mustangs clinch conference title berth in first ACC season

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5 thoughts from SMU-Virginia: Mustangs clinch conference title berth in first ACC season


CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. — The Mustangs spent three decades pushing to be back in a power conference.

This season — and Saturday’s win over Virginia — showed why.

No. 13 SMU (10-1, 7-0) dominated in its final road contest against the Cavaliers (5-6, 3-4) 33-7 to clinch a spot in the ACC title game on Dec. 7.

Between a lights-out defensive performance, which included shutting out Virginia for the first 55 minutes of play, and another impressive showing from quarterback Kevin Jennings, the Mustangs cruised to victory to become the first team in the conference to secure their trip to Charlotte.

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Here are five thoughts from the win.

SMU’s ACC title berth proves Mustangs belong, can thrive in a power conference

Mustangs continue to make history in first ACC season

Each week during this historic season, SMU has seemingly achieved more feats many thought were impossible during their first year in the ACC.

After tearing through their first six conference opponents, SMU’s win Saturday made it the first team to make the conference title game in its first season after moving from a Group of Five conference to a power conference.

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The Mustangs’ dominant win against Virginia was their 16th straight against a conference opponent and 10th consecutive on the road — both among the longest active streaks in FBS.

The Mustangs were picked to finish seventh in the ACC’s preseason poll, majorly exceeding expectations with their season that now has them on the brink of their first College Football Playoff appearance.

SMU defense led by Isaiah Smith and Jared Harrison-Hunte stifles UVA offense

SMU’s defense has been its most consistent facet this season, but after a weaker performance against Boston College last week, the group was seeking a bounce-back game.

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That’s exactly what the Mustangs got from Scott Symons’ group, which was 4:16 away from posting its first shutout of the season. The Cavaliers finished with just 173 total yards and 65 on the ground. Last week against Boston College, the Mustang defense allowed 180 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

SMU was successful in getting to Virginia quarterback Anthony Colandrea, finishing with nine sacks. Defensive linemen Isaiah Smith and Jared Harrison-Hunte led the team with two each. Kori Roberson had 1.5 sacks.

Virginia made just three red zone trips. It missed a 41-yard field goal in the first half and could not convert a fourth-down attempt in the second half after intercepting Jennings.

With under five minutes to play, Virginia finally found the end zone as Colandrea hit Malachi Fields for the four-yard touchdown.

SMU is in good spot to keep top HC for the long haul. Rhett Lashlee’s extension proves it

Kevin Jennings earns spot to compete on conference’s biggest stage

Jennings didn’t even begin the season as an ACC starter, but over the course of the last 12 weeks, he’s proven to be one of the conference’s top quarterbacks.

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Against Virginia, Jennings was outstanding again, leading the Mustangs with a career-high 323 yards on 25 of 33 passing (76%) and three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing).

He had a stretch in the first half where he completed 12 straight passes, including a third-down conversion where he dodged multiple sacks before finding Roderick Daniels Jr. for the completion.

Jennings did have two turnovers in the second half, an interception and a fumble.

Nevertheless, a matchup with either Heisman candidate Cam Ward from Miami or Clemson’s Cade Klubnik in the ACC championship will be an intriguing one.

All wide receivers get involved in Jennings’ career day

Jennings has lost two of his top receiving targets over the past few weeks with both tight end RJ Maryand and wide receiver Jake Bailey going down with season-ending injuries.

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But Saturday’s win showed the depth of the Mustang pass catchers with six different players recording multiple receptions and combining for 323 total yards.

Jordan Hudson led the group in receptions for the second consecutive week. After recording a career-high seven catches for 99 yards and a touchdown against Boston College, Hudson had six for 56 yards and a 17-yard touchdown reception in the first half against Virginia.

SMU’s leading receiver in yardage, however, was Moochie Dixon, who took four catches 89 yards with a long of 53 yards. Daniels added another five for 58 yards.

Tight end Matthew Hibner had SMU’s final 16-yard touchdown with 1:42 remaining.

The receivers stepped up, as Virginia limited SMU’s running backs, which combined for 111 yards on 35 carries.

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Coast-to-coast ACC footprint brings unprecedented travel schedule for SMU equipment truck

Mustangs to close out regular season at Ford Stadium

SMU will get a chance to enjoy senior day next week without worrying about its ACC title game chances.

Having already clinched their spot, SMU will play its final regular-season game at Ford Stadium against Cal with a chance to become the first since the 1992 Florida State Seminoles to finish its inaugural campaign in a power conference unbeaten.

SMU has more to play for beyond the ACC title game. While it looks like the Mustangs will need to win the ACC championship to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff, at-large bids are still at play. Finishing 8-0 in conference play would be key to helping the Mustangs’ chances at one of those seven spots — or a better bowl selection should they miss out on the playoff.

They will also await their ACC championship opponent. Miami can secure their title game berth with a win over Syracuse next week, but Clemson would earn the spot if Miami loses.

    SMU’s ACC title berth proves Mustangs belong, can thrive in a power conference
    SMU drops nonconference game at home as Mississippi State finds bench-led boost

Find more SMU coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.





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SMU-Virginia free livestream: How to watch college football game, TV, schedule

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SMU-Virginia free livestream: How to watch college football game, TV, schedule


The No. 13 SMU Mustangs play against the Virginia Cavaliers in a college football game today. The matchup will begin at 11 a.m. CT on ESPN 2. Fans can watch this game for free online by using the free trials offered by DirecTV Stream and Fubo TV. Alternatively, Sling offers a first-month discount to new users.

The Mustangs enter this matchup with a 9-1 record, and they are undefeated in conference play. Notably, the team has won seven games in a row. In their most recent game, the Mustangs defeated Boston College 38-28.

During the victory, SMU accrued 438 total yards. The team’s star quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns. He has thrown for 15 touchdowns and nearly 2,200 yards this season, so he will be a key player to watch today.

The Cavaliers enter this matchup with a 5-5 record, and they are coming off a 35-14 loss against Notre Dame. During the loss, Virginia struggled offensively. The team had five turnovers, which included three interceptions. Notably, Virginia only completed 17-36 passes against Notre Dame, so they will need to rely on their rushing attack today.

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Fans can watch this game for free online by using the free trials offered by DirecTV Stream and Fubo TV. Alternatively, Sling offers a first-month discount to new users.



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