The results of a closely watched special election in Tennessee has delivered signals for both parties ahead of next year’s midterm elections. 

Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democratic State Representative Aftyn Behn in the contest for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. With 99 percent of votes counted, Van Epps’ lead was around 9 percentage points. He has 53.9 percent of the vote, compared with 45 percent for Behn.

Van Epps’ margin of victory in a deep-red district marks a 13-point shift toward Democrats from 2024, when President Donald Trump carried it by 22 points. While Democrats are buoyed by Behn’s overperformance, some Republicans are sounding the alarm about what the result could mean for the midterms next year.

Why It Matters

The result is the latest concerning sign for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm season. It comes less than a month after Democrats dominated the first major Election Day since President Donald Trump returned to the White House. Earlier this year, Democrats also overperformed in other special elections in traditionally Republican districts in Florida. 

The president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections, but Trump is hoping to buck those trends by calling on Republican states to redraw House districts to give the GOP an advantage. Each House seat could be crucial because Democrats need to gain just three to take control of the chamber from Republicans and impede Trump’s agenda.

What To Know 

Trump celebrated Van Epps’ win, writing in a post on Truth Social that it was “another great night for the Republican Party!!!”

But experts say the single-digit margin of victory bodes well for Democrats ahead of the 2026 contests.

“The fact that it was as close as it was continues to suggest that Democrats are poised to make significant gains in 2026,” Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek.

“Two factors of special note underline that—first, President Trump made a special effort once it became clear that the race was closer than expected, and second, the Democratic candidate was quite a bit further to the left than the type one would expect to be competitive in that district, and she had some verbal political baggage,” he said, referring to criticism Behn faced over resurfaced remarks made during a February 2020 podcast. 

Some Republicans also suggested Van Epps’ slimmer margin of victory should be heeded as a warning.

In an appearance on Fox News on Tuesday evening, Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, said Van Epps’ underperformance was due to voters’ disapproval of Trump and warned that the GOP could lose control of Congress if they don’t “set out the alarm bells” ahead of the midterms.

“This was a very red district and it was dangerous,” he said. “We could have lost this district because the people who showed up, many of them are the ones that are motivated by how much they dislike President Trump,” 

He said the midterms will be “a turnout election, and the left will show up,” adding that “hate is a powerful motivator.”

Cruz added that Republicans need to encourage conservative voters to turn out, or they risk losing control of the House and the Senate.

Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, who is retiring, told Politico that the GOP “should not ignore the Virginia, New Jersey and Tennessee elections” and “must reach swing voters.”

And although Behn did not manage to flip the seat, Democrats are celebrating the result as a sign of the party’s momentum as well as an indication that messaging on affordability, health care and other issues could win over voters in traditionally red regions.

Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said the result “makes it clear: Democrats are on offense and Republicans are on the ropes.”

In a statement, Martin said: “Aftyn centered her campaign on lowering grocery, housing and health care costs for Tennessee families. Her Republican opponent ran his campaign focused on Donald Trump, and he had to get bailed out by a massive Republican spending onslaught to barely hold this traditionally safe Republican seat.” He added it should have Republicans “shaking in their boots.”

Pollster G. Elliot Morris said that a rural district in Tennessee “ended up just a high-single-digits win for Republicans should be a five-alarm fire” for the party ahead of the midterms. In a post on his “Strength in Numbers” newsletter, Morris said that the result confirms a broader trend in recent special elections for vacant congressional seats, where Democratic candidates have been “dramatically overperforming” benchmarks based on the 2024 election.

Morris predicted that the 13-point shift toward Democrats in Tuesday’s election could translate “to something like a 7- or 8-poit swing for the midterms,” though he noted that it remains unclear what House maps will ultimately look like for each state in 2026 due to redistricting efforts.

Kent Syler, a professor of political science at Middle Tennessee State University, previously told Newsweek that if Behn overperformed, it would bolster Democrats’ efforts to recruit strong candidates to run in more competitive districts in the midterms. 

Anything above 45 percent would be “the cherry on top,” he said.

What People Are Saying 

Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek: “It bears repeating that November 2026 is still a year away, and a lot can happen. I’d also note that it doesn’t tell us that much about 2028. The 2026 midterms are likely to be more about the reactions to the first two years of the Trump administration, and that’s what these recent sets of elections were primarily about as well, but in 2028 the Democrats will need to make a positive argument on their own behalf.” 

Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek: “Huge shifts in a Democratic direction in all counties in Tennessee’s special election last night does not bode well for Republicans in the upcoming 2026 midterms.

“For a GOP stronghold district that voted for Trump by 22 points in 2024 to be decided by a single-digit margin indicates voters are unhappy with Republican policies and performance. If this sentiment persists and becomes cemented in the electorate over the next few months, it will be virtually impossible for Republicans to overcome the historical headwinds that were already making the midterms an uphill battle for the party.”

President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social: “Congratulations to Matt Van Epps on his BIG Congressional WIN in the Great State of Tennessee. The Radical Left Democrats threw everything at him, including Millions of Dollars. Another great night for the Republican Party!!!” 

Republican Senator Ted Cruz said on Fox News: “What does this mean for the midterms in a year? It’s going to be a turnout election, and the left will show up. Hate is a powerful motivator. They hate President Trump.”

He added: “What we’ve got to make sure is, number one, that conservatives show up, but number two, that just the common sense middle regular people who what is dangerous in an off-cycle election is people that are feeling complacent, like things are going well, I’m happy. And the danger is those folks stay home. We’ve got to set out the alarm bells that if we allow the Democrats to flip the house, to flip the Senate, it is an absolute catastrophe.”  

Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said in a statement: “What happened tonight in Tennessee makes it clear: Democrats are on offense and Republicans are on the ropes. Aftyn Behn’s overperformance in this Trump +22 district is historic and a flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterms.”

He added: “The fact that Republicans spent millions to protect this Trump +22 district and still lost so much ground should have the GOP shaking in their boots.”

What’s Next

Behn’s showing adds to a trend of overperformances that could help Democrats target districts once considered safely Republican. For the GOP, the Tennessee result shows the party must work to win back swing voters who appear to be shifting toward Democrats.

Both parties are likely to adjust their strategies heading into the high-stakes midterm cycle.