Josh Heupel in close games? Only oddsmakers know this about Tennessee football vs Missouri

If it’s a coin flip, bet on Josh Heupel.

That’s not professional gambling advice. But if there’s a dispute over picking a clear-cut winner, Heupel’s teams stand a pretty good chance on the scoreboard.

Tennessee (7-2, 3-2 SEC) is a 1-point favorite over Missouri (7-2, 3-2), according on BetMGM, in its game on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS) in Columbia, Missouri.

As a head coach, Heupel has a 6-2 record in games that have a point spread of 3 points or less. He has the same record against the spread in those games. But again, this isn’t gambling advice.

The more stunning revelation is that when Heupel’s teams are predicted to play a very close game, they usually win in a blowout.

Tennessee has won by an average margin of 19 points in its six victories under Heupel in which the point spread was 3 points or less.

Josh Heupel’s hot streak against odds started at Missouri

Heupel’s run of overwhelmingly beating the odds at Tennessee actually began against Missouri.

In 2021, the Vols were a 2.5-point underdog at Missouri. UT won 62-24.

In 2022, the Vols were a 2.5-point favorite at LSU. UT won 40-13.

When Heupel was at UCF, his team was a 1-point home favorite against Memphis in 2018. UCF won 56-41.In 2020, UCF was a 3-point favorite at Houston. UCF won 44-21.

At Tennessee, Heupel also beat Kentucky 45-42 in 2021 and beat Texas A&M 20-13 this season as a 1-point and 3-point favorite, respectively.

Heupel has lost only two games in which there was a spread of 3 points or less. In 2020, UCF was a 3-point favorite at Memphis, but it lost 50-49. And in 2021, UT was a 1-point underdog to Ole Miss, and it lost 31-26 in controversial fashion to Lane Kiffin’s squad.

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Here’s the recipe for Vols winning another close game

Of course, a predicted close game and an actual close game aren’t the same. But Heupel’s teams have performed well in both, at least at Tennessee.

Heupel has a 6-3 record in games decided by 7 points or less at UT, including five straight wins.

Last season, the Vols beat Pittsburgh by 7 in overtime, Florida by 5 and Alabama by 3. This season, the Vols beat Texas A&M by 7 and Kentucky by 6.

There are common factors to how Heupel wins games that are predicted to be close and those that actually are close. And they’re both relevant in this game against Missouri.

In those wins, Heupel’s teams dominated on the ground, rushing for 230 yards per game. This season, the Vols lead the SEC in rushing offense and rushing defense.

And in those wins, Heupel’s teams took advantage of scoring opportunities. They scored in 46 of 52 trips to the red zone (88%).

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Missouri leads the nation in red-zone scoring efficiency at 97.4%. UT ranks 63rd at 85.4%.

The Vols must continue running the ball effectively but also improve their red-zone scoring to add another nail-biting victory to Heupel’s resume. History says not to bet against him.

Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.

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