Lamont Paris should be the National Coach of the Year.
The No. 11 South Carolina Gamecocks are tied atop the SEC standings with a 9-2 record. They’ve won seven straight games, including true road games over Arkansas, Tennessee and Georgia.
South Carolina went 4-14 in league play during Paris’ debut year. The Gamecocks have pulled off among the most impressive year-over-year turnarounds of any college basketball team.
Unfortunately, the ‘Cocks have to play No. 13 Auburn in The Jungle on Wednesday night.
After losing to Florida on Saturday, Auburn’s fallen a game behind South Carolina and Alabama in the standings. But the Tigers have a chance to earn that spot back.
Will they?
South Carolina vs Auburn Prediction
There’s a pretty good chance Auburn will pull out a tough home win. It’s a good home situational spot for War Eagle, given they’re back at home off a loss playing a South Carolina team due for a loss – the Gamecocks won’t go undefeated the rest of the way, and it’s always tough playing at Auburn.
But I’d be shocked if Auburn won in blowout fashion.
Part of South Carolina’s success this year has been forcing opponents to play at the Gamecocks pace, which is exceedingly slow. They rank 355th nationally and last in the SEC in tempo, and not one of their conference games has topped 68 possessions.
How do the Gamecocks accomplish this?
On defense, South Carolina plays a deep drop coverage that denies motion offenses and makes opponents use isolation and ball-screen creation, generally forcing them into longer possessions.
Additionally, the Gamecocks are elite at denying transition opportunities.
On offense, they use a methodical five-out motion and swing offense that leverages the deep shooting ability of center BJ Mack (31% from 3) and swingman Myles Stute (40%) to invert the floor and make opposing big men defend on the perimeter.
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As a result, the Gamecocks boast the 13th-longest average offensive possession length nationally (19.6 seconds).
South Carolina can play its style against Auburn.
Auburn runs a flex-motion offense predicated on cutters and other secondary actions, and that scheme isn’t particularly effective against deep-drop coverages. Florida runs a similar defensive coverage, and the Tigers managed only 65 points on 84 possessions (.77 PPP) last Saturday.
Additionally, the Tigers run the floor as much as any team, ranking 26th nationally in transition frequency. But they won’t be able to score fast-break points in this matchup, as South Carolina allows only eight per game.
On the other end of the court, Auburn’s big men are elite at defending the interior, hence why the Tigers rank first nationally in 2-point shooting allowed (42%). But Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams can be exposed if forced to defend out of position, precisely what Paris plans to do.
So, South Carolina should dictate the pace of this matchup, keeping it low-possession and low-scoring, thereby making it harder for Auburn to cover a double-digit spread.
Furthermore, the Gamecocks should succeed in executing its spread-the-floor motion offense and drop-coverage defense, as they match up well with Bruce Pearl’s two-way scheme.
While Auburn should come away with this much-needed home victory, I don’t see the Tigers figuring out how to win by 12 or more. The schematic matchup isn’t good enough, and Coach Paris should keep it close for 40 minutes.
South Carolina vs Auburn Pick
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South Carolina +11.5 (FanDuel)
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