Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt was presupposed to cruise to re-election. He’s a Republican working in a reliably purple state; Donald Trump walloped Joe Biden there in 2020, drawing practically two out of each three votes. And Stitt is on the poll in a 12 months when his social gathering is meant to have the higher hand.

But the Republican Governors Affiliation has simply launched a seven-figure advert purchase to assist Stitt over the end line. And outstanding Republicans like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas are dashing to his facet, as social gathering leaders concern Oklahoma is likely to be the positioning of one of many greatest upsets of the midterms.

That will look like the signal of a flailing GOP in a spot the place the social gathering needs to be at its strongest. But it surely’s extra sophisticated than that.

That’s as a result of Stitt’s Democratic opponent, Pleasure Hofmeister, the superintendent of Oklahoma’s public college system, was a lifelong Republican till final 12 months. “I used to be a Republican longer than Governor Stitt was registered to vote,” she tells TIME. “I’m fiscally conservative. I’m aggressively average. At all times have been.”

In different phrases, she’s a Democrat in title solely. The most recent polling has Hofmeister with a slim three-point lead over Stitt, based on the Oklahoma Metropolis-based agency Ascend Motion.

The tight race is essentially the results of a sequence of missteps by Stitt, from scandals which have plagued his administration to a bitter feud with Oklahoma’s 39 American Indian tribes. Stitt additionally signed into regulation one of many nation’s most restrictive abortion payments, which has drawn some pushback even in conservative Oklahoma for its banning the process in circumstances of rape, incest and when the mom’s well being is in danger. And he oversaw one among America’s highest COVID dying charges, with roughly 17,000 lives misplaced.

Hofmeister, 58, says she switched events as a result of she wished to problem Stitt however knew attempting to take action within the Republican major could be futile. “Governor Stitt has hijacked the Republican Social gathering,’ she provides. “He’s pandering to extremism.”

Stitt’s marketing campaign didn’t reply to a number of requests to remark for this report.

Oklahoma political analysts suspect Hofmeister’s social gathering swap has paid dividends in a race the place most Democrats wouldn’t stand a combating probability. “I feel her being a lifelong Republican makes her extra palatable to a variety of Oklahomans,” says Rachel Blum, a politics professor on the College of Oklahoma.

However as Hofmeister’s marketing campaign has been constructing momentum, extra Republicans have been coming to Stitt’s rescue. On Monday, DeSantis endorsed him, and on Tuesday, Cruz is holding a rally for him in Oklahoma Metropolis.

Stitt, 49, who based the monetary companies agency Gateway First Financial institution earlier than coming into politics, additionally loaned his marketing campaign roughly $1 million over the weekend. It’s yet one more signal that Republicans are spending sources on a race that just a few months in the past they’d have thought-about an afterthought.

The governor’s political troubles started in his first 12 months in workplace, when he filed a lawsuit to renegotiate the state’s playing compact with the tribes and gather extra state income from their casinos. The transfer created a serious confrontation with a robust constituency within the state.

Oklahoma has one of many nation’s highest percentages of American Indian residents, at roughly 10%, based on the most recent U.S. Census knowledge. The tribal on line casino operations are additionally a pivotal a part of the state’s economic system. Since close by Texas doesn’t have gaming, Oklahoma’s southern border is plagued by casinos, together with the world’s largest on line casino is in Thackerville.

The courts tossed Stitt’s swimsuit out, however the dispute triggered a widespread backlash—5 of the six largest tribes in Oklahoma have endorsed Hofmeister.

“Mainly, it simply united all of the tribes right here in Oklahoma,” David Hill, the principal chief of the Muscogee Nation, tells TIME. The courtroom battles amounted to a waste of taxpayer cash, he went on, a lot of which comes from the tribes doing enterprise within the state. “It’s insulting to get sued with your personal cash.”

Hofmeister has hammered Stitt, himself a member of the Cherokee Nation, for alienating the tribes and attempting to restructure the compacts which have lengthy been in place.

“These have been established by different governors,” she says. “They weren’t up for negotiation. Our governor walked in, as a really self assured businessman, and thought he was going to simply work some sort of deal on his personal phrases, and had completely no historic understanding of the partnership, government-to-government that has existed and has prompted a lot of our Oklahoma communities to thrive.”

But Stitt’s battle with the tribes was simply the primary in a string of controversies, a few of them tied to his dealing with of Covid. A state audit discovered that he mishandled roughly $31 million in Covid aid funds. And in 2020, shortly after the virus reached America’s shores, he spent roughly $1.8 million on private protecting tools (PPE) that by no means arrived.

Below Stitt, Oklahoma had a number of the most lax pandemic restrictions within the nation. He rejected masks and shutdown mandates of any type. Hofmeister, in distinction, as superintendent of Oklahoma’s public colleges, oversaw a brief shift to digital studying on the outset of the pandemic.

Stitt has tried to make {that a} marketing campaign subject, arguing that Hofmeister embraced college closures unnecessarily, which he claims is liable for Oklahoma’s lagging check scores. “Once we shut colleges down, this can be a byproduct,” he mentioned lately. “We knew this was coming. It’s frequent sense. And the left was advocating for the closure of colleges.”

One other divide between the candidates is the way forward for abortion entry in Oklahoma. In Might, Stitt signed into regulation a complete abortion ban with no exceptions. It additionally created a bounty-scheme much like one first handed in Texas, through which any citizen will be awarded $10,000 in the event that they efficiently sue an abortion supplier, healthcare employee, or anybody else who asissts a lady in getting the process.

Hofmeister has been noncommittal on what sort of invoice she would attempt to cross by means of the legislature however has mentioned she needs abortions to be obtainable to girls beneath these exceptions.

“I’m personally pro-life,” she says. “However I don’t favor extremes on both facet of this subject. These are healthcare selections between a lady and her physician. The governor invited and signed payments into regulation that present no mercy for victims of rape or incest. And he has criminalized commonplace well being care, and invited miscarriage bounty hunters at $10,000 a charge, the place a person can sue their neighbor and gather a reward. It’s improper and it must be reversed.”

In line with Oklahoma political analysts, the race will in the end activate who can encourage their supporters. The state has one of many lowest turnout charges within the nation.

Nonetheless, within the last week of the race, the check could in the end come down as to whether sufficient voters are dissatisfied with Stitt that they are going to pull the lever for somebody with a “D” subsequent to their title.

“At this level, it’s a referendum on Kevin Stitt,” Pat McFerron, a longtime Oklahoma GOP guide, tells TIME. “It’s not likely a alternative between the 2 candidates proper now.”

Contact us at letters@time.com.