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Texas vs. Oklahoma football prediction: What the analytics say

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Texas vs. Oklahoma football prediction: What the analytics say


For the first time, the Red River Shootout is an SEC conference matchup, as No. 1 Texas and No. 18 Oklahoma renew one of college football’s most intense rivalries. Let’s check in with the updated prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.

Texas is one of 12 undefeated teams and sits at 1-0 in SEC play with Arch Manning starting the last two games, but Quinn Ewers should return to action this week after dealing with an abdominal injury.

Oklahoma is 1-1 in SEC games, taking a 10-point loss at home to Tennessee that resulted in a quarterback change, and it relied on some timely defense to get past Auburn two weeks ago.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

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The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

So far, the models are siding pretty strongly with the Longhorns over the Sooners.

Texas is projected to win the game in an overwhelming 85.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations, or in 17,040 of its latest 20,000 predictions.

That leaves Oklahoma as the expected winner in 14.8 percent of sims, or 2,960 projections.

Texas is projected to be 15.8 points better than Oklahoma on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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If so, that would be enough for the Longhorns to cover the spread.

That’s because Texas is a 14.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -700 and for Oklahoma at +500 to win outright.

Most bettors predict the Sooners will make this a game against the Longhorns, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

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A majority of bets — 58 percent — project that Oklahoma will either beat Texas in an upset, or keep the game within the point spread.

The other 42 percent of wagers expect Texas will win the game and cover the spread.

The game’s implied score suggests a win for the Longhorns.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Texas will defeat Oklahoma by a projected score of 32 to 18 in the game.

Texas is first among SEC teams with a 91.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.4 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

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That model gives Oklahoma a win total projection of 7.2 games and a 13.9 percent shot at the playoff.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses

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1. Texas (52)
2. Ohio State (9)
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Clemson
T-11. Iowa State/Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Utah
17. Boise State
T-18. Kansas State/Indiana/Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Pittsburgh
23. Illinois
24. Michigan
25. SMU

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Nonprofit Pike Off OTA sues to halt East-West Connector turnpike over environmental claims

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Nonprofit Pike Off OTA sues to halt East-West Connector turnpike over environmental claims


Pike Off OTA, a non-profit organization dedicated to preventing the development of two proposed turnpikes, has filed a federal lawsuit against the Oklahoma Turnpike Authority to stop the construction of the East-West Connector “EWC” Turnpike Project, citing environmental concerns.

In the lawsuit, Pike Off OTA says construction of the EWC Turnpike Project is negatively impacting critical habitats for endangered species and the surrounding environment.

The lawsuit also alleges OTA is violating the Clean Water Act, the National Environmental Policy Act, the Endangered Species Act, the Administrative Procedure Act, and the Federal Transportation Act.

Pike Off OTA aims to stop further construction and prevent additional bond funding until the required permits and environmental reviews have been completed.

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Other Defendants Listed in the Lawsuit:

  • United States Army Corps, Tulsa Division (USACE)
  • Federal Highway Administration (FHWA)
  • Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation
  • United States Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS)

The East-West Connector Turnpike is part of ACCESS Oklahoma, a long-range plan to update Oklahoma’s turnpikes, bridges, and pavement and add three new routes in the Oklahoma City metro area.

Mission Statement from the ACCESS Oklahoma website:

This 15-year long-range plan has always been about motorist safety. OTA’s mission is to help facilitate traffic throughout the state by seamlessly connecting with the state highway system, thereby providing a choice for a safe, convenient, and efficient user-funded transportation network. OTA’s goal is to provide safe infrastructure while maintaining the lowest toll rate possible for our customers.

Pike Off OTA’s lawsuit is focusing on the EWC Turnpike, which Pike OFF said acts as a four-lane toll road expressway from I-44 Tri-City area (Newcastle, Blanchard, Tuttle) at SH-37. The turnpike will cross the South Canadian River, east to I-35 along Indian Hills Road in the Moore/Norman area.

The turnpike will also connect to the new Kickapoo Turnpike.

In the lawsuit, Pike Off OTA said installments and construction areas will permanently impact the Waters of the United States.

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The EWC requires numerous installments and construction areas, including the building of temporary and permanent access roads, that will materially, and in some instances, permanently impact the Waters of the United States in the subject project area; notably the Canadian River, Lake Thunderbird, and Lost Creek. In sum, the EWC Project proposes the construction of approximately 30.5 miles of turnpike with two new bridges spanning the Canadian River, and other construction activities that will include the discharge and fill of materials into federally protected jurisdictions and waterways.

Pike Off OTA said that the OTA, USACE, FHWA, FWS, and the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation have all failed to uphold their duties to ensure the protection of Oklahoma’s wildlife, waterways, natural environment, and Pike Off OTA’s procedural rights.

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Oklahoma Highway Patrol enters ’37 patrol car in national contest

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Oklahoma Highway Patrol enters ’37 patrol car in national contest


The Oklahoma Highway Patrol is competing once again in the American Association of State Troopers’ Best Looking Cruiser Contest, this time showcasing the agency’s history alongside its modern fleet.

The entry features OHP’s restored 1937 Ford patrol car paired with a current Chevrolet Tahoe, highlighting nearly nine decades of the agency’s patrol vehicle tradition.

OHP highlights historic patrol car

According to OHP, the contest entry celebrates the agency’s original 1937 Ford patrol car and its connection to the modern Chevrolet Tahoe used by troopers today.

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The agency says the iconic black-and-white “dovetail” paint scheme debuted on the 1937 Ford, with the white paint wrapping over the rear wheel wells. OHP says that design became the foundation for the look that continues to represent the agency today.

How voting works

The Best Looking Cruiser Contest is decided by public vote here.

OHP says each device is allowed one vote, and every vote is important as the agency competes against perennial favorites for a chance to earn a spot in the 2027 American Association of State Troopers calendar.

Looking to improve on last year

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Oklahoma finished eighth in the nation in last year’s Best Looking Cruiser Contest.

The agency is hoping this year’s entry featuring both its historic 1937 Ford and modern Chevrolet Tahoe will help improve its finish and secure a place in the 2027 calendar.

“As Route 66 celebrates its 100th birthday, we wanted to honor the most iconic highway in America and the Oklahoma Troopers who have patrolled it for generations,” OHP said. “Since 1937, Oklahoma Highway Patrol Troopers have traveled its pavement, assisted stranded motorists, investigated crashes, enforced traffic laws, and answered calls for service along the Mother Road. Route 66 isn’t just a historic highway to us—it’s part of our history.”





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Oklahoma Ford Sports Blitz: June 28, 2026

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Oklahoma Ford Sports Blitz: June 28, 2026


In this week’s Your Vote Counts, Oklahoma’s Own Scott Mitchell leads Jason Dunnington and Sen. Paul Rosino in a discussion about new Oklahoma laws, including those addressing data centers. Other topics include inflation and the ongoing impact of the war in Iran.





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