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Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert college football model

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Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert college football model


A new-look SEC football matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 18 Ole Miss looks to rebound against struggling Oklahoma in college football’s Week 9 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ole Miss slid to 1-2 in SEC play this season with losses to Kentucky and LSU, but still commands the No. 8 scoring offense and 3rd ranked passing attack in college football with its College Football Playoff hopes in serious limbo heading into November.

Oklahoma is playing some of the country’s worst offense and undergoing a second quarterback change, but its solid defense is a bright spot for the team otherwise.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Rebels and Sooners meet in this SEC clash?

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For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oklahoma and Ole Miss compare in this Week 9 college football game.

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Rebels over the Sooners in this matchup.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Oklahoma by a projected score of 34 to 14 and to win the game by an expected margin of 19.6 points in the process.

The model gives the Rebels a strong 89 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Ole Miss is a 20.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -1600 and for Oklahoma at +860 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

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Most bettors take a different view of the Rebels against the Sooners, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Ole Miss is getting 58 percent of bets to win the game and cover the generous spread in the process.

The other 42 percent of wagers project Oklahoma will either win in an upset, or keep the game under 3 touchdowns in a loss.

Ole Miss has been 28.3 points better than opponents when playing at home on average so far this season.

But over the last three games, the Rebels have been 6 points better on average, as that number took a hit following two close losses.

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Oklahoma is 17 points worse than its opponents over the last three games on average.

But the Sooners are 12.5 points worse than the opposition when playing on the road.

Most other analytical models are siding with the Rebels over the Sooners in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is projected to win the game outright in the majority 87.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

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That leaves Oklahoma as the expected winner in the remaining 12.2 percent of sims.

Ole Miss is projected to be 17.8 points better than Oklahoma on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Ole Miss is seventh among SEC teams with a 21.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Rebels a win total prediction of 8.9 games this season.

Oklahoma will make a bowl game with 61.7 percent likelihood, according to the index’s calculations.

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And the computers give the Sooners a win total projection of 5.9 games in 2024.

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Oklahoma Ford Sports Blitz: Mar. 1, 2026

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Oklahoma Ford Sports Blitz: Mar. 1, 2026


Big night in downtown OKC as the Oklahoma City Thunder welcome the Denver Nugget and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back on the floor.

Steve McGehee reports live from Paycom Center with the latest on SGA’s return after missing nine games, the Thunder’s push to hold the top spot in the Western Conference, and what getting healthy means for OKC’s title hopes.





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How Oklahoma GM Jim Nagy ‘Put More Around’ John Mateer During Offseason

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How Oklahoma GM Jim Nagy ‘Put More Around’ John Mateer During Offseason


Oklahoma general manager Jim Nagy experienced great success during his first year in Norman.

Nagy, who joined OU’s staff in February 2025, oversaw the Sooners’ scouting staff as Oklahoma reached the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2019. He also helped OU sign a top-15 2026 recruiting class and land several key transfer portal players after the 2025 season.

Though the wins outweighed the losses in Nagy’s first year, the Sooners’ general manager knew that there was much to fortify during the offseason.

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Oklahoma’s offense sputtered late in the season, as the Sooners scored fewer than 25 points in each of their last four games.

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For Nagy, a major focus was surrounding OU quarterback John Mateer with quality talent.

“(We wanted to) just really put more around John Mateer,” Nagy said on The Dari Nowkhah Show on KREF on Friday.

Nagy and his scouting team added plenty of pieces from the portal that should elevate Oklahoma’s offense.

The Sooners signed three portal wideouts — Trell Harris (Virginia), Parker Livingstone (Texas) and Mackenzie Alleyne (Washington State) — after the 2025 season to join returning receivers Isaiah Sategna, Jer’Michael Carter and Jacob Jordan.

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Sategna, who transferred to OU from Arkansas after the 2024 season, served as Mateer’s safety net in 2025. The receiver finished the year with 965 yards and eight touchdowns on 67 catches.

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Harris and Livingstone are both proven producers at the Power Four level, and Nagy believes that those two will make OU’s receiving corps stronger in 2026.

“Those two, we’re very excited about both of those guys,” Nagy said.

Nagy also did plenty of work to ensure that OU’s run game improves in 2026.

The Sooners added three tight ends — Hayden Hansen (Florida), Rocky Beers (Colorado State) and Jack Van Dorselaer (Tennessee) — from the portal. They also added three transfer offensive linemen: Caleb Nitta (Western Kentucky), E’Marion Harris (Arkansas) and Peyton Joseph (Georgia Tech).

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OU will have its two top running backs from the 2025 squad, Xavier Robinson and Tory Blaylock, back in 2026.

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For those two to reach their full potential, the Sooners’ blockers will have to regularly open up running lanes — and Nagy is confident that they will.

“We have to run the ball better, there’s no way around that,” Nagy said. “Our job is to create more competition in every room in the offseason. I feel like we’ve done that.”

On the show, Nagy revealed that the Sooners added nearly 9,000 collegiate snaps to their roster during the offseason. 

The general manager believes that both sides of the ball will be stronger as a result of his scouting team’s offseason efforts and their collaboration with OU’s coaching staff.

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“I’ve tried to be really intentional with our communication,” Nagy said. “There’s a common goal: We’re trying to win a national championship. This is a true partnership, and we all have the same goal in mind. It’s going to continue to evolve and get better.”

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Oklahoma will open its 2026 season against UTEP on Sept. 5.



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Elgin’s Ritson Meyer becomes four-time Oklahoma high school wrestling state champion

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Elgin’s Ritson Meyer becomes four-time Oklahoma high school wrestling state champion


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The loss was on Ritson Meyer’s mind all week as he prepared for his final state wrestling tournament. 

A senior 215-pounder at Elgin, Meyer isn’t used to getting beaten, but he got a wake-up call when he lost against Coweta senior Aiven Robbins by five points in their regional championship match. 

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For Meyer, it set in that winning his fourth state championship wouldn’t be an easy task. 

“I lost to him last week and I’m not a loser, so it was eating on me all week in practice,” Meyer said. “So (in) practice, I really leveled up everything. Everything about it.” 

Meyer and Robbins met again on Saturday, this time with the Class 5A state championship on the line. 

Intensely focused from the start, Meyer came out aggressive. And although it was another great match, Meyer did just enough to etch his name in the state history books. 

Meyer held on to beat Robbins in an 8-7 decision in the new OG&E Coliseum as he claimed his fourth state championship, while Coweta won the team title. 

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An Abilene Christian football signee, Meyer’s wrestling days are over, but he leaves the sport with satisfaction. 

“I came out here — even though it hurt, even though I was tired — I got it done,” Meyer said. “I’m so happy. I got to celebrate with my parents, my family, my friends. It’s a crazy feeling.” 

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A standout running back and linebacker on the gridiron, Meyer helped his team win the Class 4A state title in football as a junior before Elgin lost to Tuttle 23-20 in the 2025 championship game in December. 

It’s a different sport, but that loss fueled Meyer’s wrestling season in a way. 

“I like to tell people that wrestling is like offseason football,” Meyer said. “I can’t go out, lose. Everybody wanted me to win this. I won it for the whole entire community. First four-timer at Elgin. And that football (loss) really did eat me alive. It didn’t feel good at all, and I didn’t want that same feeling again.” 

Meyer had a great start against Robbins on Saturday and never trailed, but Robbins battled to set up a great finish and both were gassed when it was over. 

“I just gave it my all,” Meyer said, “and I got it done.” 

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This article will be updated.

Nick Sardis covers high school sports for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Nick? He can be reached at nsardis@oklahoman.com or on Twitter at@nicksardis. Sign up forThe Varsity Club newsletter to access more high school coverage. Support Nick’s work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing adigital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.





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