No. 24 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners Preview: Not just bluffin

With just two losses on the season — by a combined four points — the No. 24 Michigan Wolverines are in a good place. Dusty May’s squad is on track for an NCAA Tournament berth but would like more, which means the Wolverines could use another solid non-conference win on the resume. The last opportunity for that is Wednesday in Charlotte, with the No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners the final Power Five opponent left on the schedule.

Like the entire SEC, the undefeated Sooners are making headlines this season. On its way to winning the Battle 4 Atlantis, Oklahoma has four wins over top-100 KenPom teams, the same total as Michigan. The Wolverines (23rd) sit higher in the analytics than the Sooners (37th), but the polls have the teams flipped. This should be a good one at the Jumpman Invitational.

No. 24 Michigan Wolverines (8-2) vs. No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners (10-0)

Date & Time: Wednesday, Dec. 18, 9 p.m. ET
Location: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
TV/Streaming: ESPN2

Oklahoma has been solid on both ends of the floor, with not many deficiencies in its profile. Freshman Jeremiah Fears, the No. 44 player in the 247Sports Composite, has been as advertised, averaging 16.7 PPG while leading the team with 4.7 APG. Fears and friends play with some pace, move the ball well, and like to take threes; this will be a test for the Wolverines after a couple rougher defensive performances.

The last time these teams met was in the Second Round of the 2008-09 NCAA Tournament as Blake Griffin’s squad took down the No. 10 Wolverines, who rejoined the Big Dance after an 11-year absence. Present day, this is the third edition of the Jumpman Invitational, completing one rotation. Michigan lost to North Carolina in 2022 and Florida last season, with both games coming down to the wire.

One Big Question: Where is the discipline?

I am not going to talk about turnovers every single game because unfortunately they do not seem to be going away. What I do think is worth mentioning is the general concept of discipline and patience, specifically against athletic teams that like to run. Against the Razorbacks, Michigan played right into their hand by rushing passes, leading to easy looks in transition off sloppy mistakes.

The Wolverines will need to lock down Fears on Wednesday, which becomes much more doable in the half court. Oklahoma has a top-50 eFG rate, so playing disciplined defense, but also smart offense, is essential to avoid yet another subpar defensive performance. The Sooners are not a great offensive rebounding team, but cleaning up the glass also remains an area where the defense must show more attention. Michigan has a solid defense (No. 15) already, and cleaning up its wild play will only make it even stronger.

One Thing to Watch: Play the percentages

Michigan ranks 39th in adjusted offense, but has the 15th-best eFG rate — and sixth-highest two-point shooting percentage in the country. The biggest reason for this gap is obviously turnovers, but even with this frustrating Achilles heel, the Wolverines have posted over 1.20 PPP in the last two games, mostly due to an insane 68.4-percent shooting mark inside the arc. Basically when the Wolverines get a shot off, good things are going to happen; it is those shotless, turnover-filled possessions that have been limiting this team.

The Sooners rank in the 200s in two-point defense, though many of those struggles were to begin the season. Still, the Danny Wolf-Vlad Goldin combo should feast again. Wolf has seen his turnover rate slowly drop, while Goldin is hitting 80 percent of his shots at the rim over the past four games after missing some bunnies earlier this year. Eventually teams will figure out how to stop this duo (or at least sell out to prevent it), but until that comes the Wolverines should continue hammering this advantage.