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‘Very competitive’: Inside the Kamala Harris campaign’s plan to flip NC, defy history

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‘Very competitive’: Inside the Kamala Harris campaign’s plan to flip NC, defy history


Kamala Harris’ new presidential campaign views North Carolina not just as a potential bonus prize on the electoral map this fall, but the possible linchpin in her path to victory against her Republican rival, former President Donald Trump.

Democrats started spending money early on in a state they insisted they could win in the presidential contest. Now senior campaign advisers tell McClatchy that Harris’ replacement of President Joe Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee has not only scrambled the race, but the map as well, raising the odds that Americans will be waiting Election Night on the results from North Carolina and Arizona — not just Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — to learn who has won the White House.

A senior campaign official said that North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper’s decision on Monday night, publicly withdrawing himself from consideration to join the ticket as Harris’ vice president, had no impact on the calculus driving their strategy in the state.

That strategy, officials said, has been fueled instead by internal data focused on the kinds of new voters moving into the state, modeling the electorate and their propensity to vote, and examining special election and off-year election results — data that holds regardless of Cooper’s choice and that campaign officials believe is far more predictive than head-to-head polling conducted months in advance.

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Vice President Kamala Harris arrives for a rally during a campaign stop at Westover High School on Thursday, July 18, 2024 in Fayetteville, N.C.

Vice President Kamala Harris arrives for a rally during a campaign stop at Westover High School on Thursday, July 18, 2024 in Fayetteville, N.C.

And all of that data is telling Harris’ advisers that North Carolina’s fast-changing electorate will make for a “very competitive” race in November, the official added.

“I don’t really view it as a Blue Wall path, or a Southern path, or a Western path. I don’t think that’s how people should think about this. There are seven or-so states, all of which have been extremely close cycle after cycle,” Dan Kanninen, battleground state director for the Harris campaign, said in an interview.

“They’ve been effectively toss-ups,” Kanninen added. “So I think all seven of those are gonna be close. The difference is, we have built an infrastructure designed to win a close race. The Trump campaign has not.”

DATA DRIVING CONFIDENCE

The Biden campaign — now transformed into the Harris campaign — has made frequent stops in North Carolina. Harris will make her eighth visit of the year and her first as a presidential candidate to the state next week, and will bring her yet-to-be-announced running mate to Raleigh with her.

On paper, Harris faces an uphill battle in a state that has gone for a Democratic candidate for president only twice in the last 50 years: for Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Barack Obama in 2008.

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Since the last presidential election, North Carolina Republicans have grown their registration numbers by 156,000, while Democrats have shed 126,000 registrants, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections – numbers that on their face appear to challenge Harris in her quest to exceed Biden’s 2020 performance, when he lost the state to Trump by 1.3% of the vote, or 74,000 votes, his narrowest loss that year.

That is just the continuation of a long trend that began in 2016, when Democrats held a voter advantage of nearly 645,000 over Republicans, said Matt Mercer, communications director for the North Carolina Republican Party.

“If you want to talk about the impact that Donald Trump has had in North Carolina,” Mercer said, “it’s Democrats shedding half a million voters to either Republicans or unaffiliated voters. That is a stark repudiation of a party that essentially controlled North Carolina for a century.”

But the Harris campaign told McClatchy and N&O their data indicates voter trends across the state are working in their favor, with 57% of newly registered voters in North Carolina since 2020 being millennial age or younger, 34% identifying as Black, Hispanic, Asian American or Pacific Islander, and 38.7% being registered as unaffiliated with either party — three cohorts that are increasingly breaking for Harris in their polling.

Campaign leadership is drilling down at the county level on which districts saw Nikki Haley — Trump’s strongest and most moderate challenger in the Republican primary — overperform her statewide total, with 25% or more of the GOP vote, including in New Hanover, typically seen as a state bellwether, and Union, an historically conservative area.

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Even still, Kanninen said registration numbers don’t necessarily predict “the electorate that will show up in the fall,” noting the campaign is planning an aggressive push to maximize the state’s one-stop voting system, where residents can turn up at a polling site both to register and vote at the same time.

“What I will tell you is that the on-the-ground enthusiasm that we see in North Carolina has been incredibly strong — maybe historic — in the past week, and we’ve had a campaign that’s been built to capitalize that, in a way the Trump campaign has simply been absent,” Kanninen said. He pointed to a gathering to train volunteers in Greenville days after Harris entered the race that drew nearly 100 people — a relatively sizable crowd in a small city that surprised the campaign.

While both Hillary Clinton, the 2016 Democratic nominee, and Biden both ultimately invested in North Carolina, neither did so until much later in the election cycle, Kanninen noted, placing those campaigns further behind in building the infrastructure he said would be needed to win. The Biden-Harris campaign has been investing in the state since February.

Building out early has allowed the campaign to reach out to a key voting bloc — rural Black voters — earlier than they would have otherwise, and also begin their effort to “cut the margins” of Trump’s support among moderate Republicans and “middle partisans” in rural counties, Kanninen said.

“We put into place infrastructure early — leadership teams on the ground in February and March, building robust teams throughout the spring, now to the point of having 150 staff in North Carolina that will get much, much bigger before the end of the summer,” Kanninen said. “We’re at scale, and building to a greater scale, so that when people start paying much closer attention after the convention and beyond, we’ll have the people, the resources, the volunteers to capitalize on that and drive it, which really matters in a close race.”

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ROBINSON ‘MADE POSSIBLE’ BY TRUMP

Confident that the data supports a potential victory, Harris’ campaign has settled on a clear strategy in the state: tying Trump to the Republican candidate for governor, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

North Carolinians have a long history of “ticket-splitting,” choosing candidates of different parties down ballot. But Kanninen argued that Robinson was a creature of Trump’s making, indelibly tied to the former president.

“I don’t think it’s a one-off that Mark Robinson exists in a vacuum from Donald Trump. I think he is made possible by Donald Trump,” Kanninen said.

“Donald Trump endorsed him, and vice versa. He spoke at the convention,” Kanninen added. “And I think there’s no escaping the fact that the sort of politics you see from Robinson looks, feels and sounds just like Donald Trump. And I think that will be on the ballot.”

The Harris campaign believes that Robinson’s record — calling LGBTQ+ Americans “filth,” stating he would not compromise on abortion restrictions and quoting Hitler on social media — will prove toxic to moderate Republicans, Republican women and independents, recreating the coalition that challenged Trump and supported Haley in the GOP primary.

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“Those voters are really turned off by that sort of toxic MAGA rhetoric, and Mark Robinson is a direct throughline to Donald Trump. They see that as a sort of MAGA ticket, so to speak,” Kanninen said. “I think that is a winning playbook for people who are new to the state, but do not ascribe to those kinds of politics.”

Mercer said the state Republican Party is prepared for the attacks. “It’s a campaign, right? Both sides do their best to work to define their opponent,” he said.

But the Trump campaign does appear to be taking threats to its hold on North Carolina seriously, taking out a television ad buy in the state starting Thursday.

“I think you’re always looking at solidifying your position,” Mercer said of the ad buy, “and, despite having a strong position, you don’t want to get complacent, either. So it’s treating it with the appropriate levels of concern.”

Neither side is expressing exuberant confidence. Kanninen, for his part, acknowledged the race for the state would come down to the wire.

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“There’s some political gravity that I think is true in a place like North Carolina, or in some of the other core battlegrounds,” he added. “They’ve been really close races, they’re destined to be really close races.”

McClatchyDC reporter David Catanese contributed reporting.



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What $500,000 buys you in North Carolina vs New Jersey is not even close

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What 0,000 buys you in North Carolina vs New Jersey is not even close


Before I came back to NJ 101.5 last August, I had a few months where things were quiet on the radio front in New Jersey and over in Philly. Quiet enough that my phone started ringing from other places.

Charlotte. Raleigh. Two separate conversations with two separate radio stations in North Carolina. I did the interviews. I listened to their stations carefully and gave their managers honest thoughts on how to improve their programming. I went far enough down the road that I had to actually think about it — not as a hypothetical, but as a real decision Linda and I would have to make about our lives.

I did not take either job. I came home to NJ 101.5 instead, which is exactly where I belong. But I spent enough time with those numbers — housing, taxes, cost of living — that they are still sitting in my head. And every time I read about another wave of New Jersey residents heading south, I think about what I saw.

What $500,000 buys you there

The median home price in Charlotte right now is around $415,000. In Raleigh it is around $426,000. That means $500,000 is not the ceiling — it is well above the median. It buys you a serious house. A newer construction home in a desirable suburb. Four bedrooms, three baths, a two-car garage, a backyard worth using. In some neighborhoods, a finished basement and a covered porch on top of that.

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In and around New Jersey, $500,000 is a starting point for a conversation. In many parts of the state it gets you something modest. In Bergen, Morris or Essex County it barely qualifies as entry-level. The median home price in New Jersey sits around $584,000 — and that is the middle. Half the homes in the state cost more than that.

What $500,000 buys you here

The house math is only the beginning. The part that really stings is what comes after you buy it.

New Jersey’s effective property tax rate is 1.77 percent — the highest in the country. On a $500,000 home that is roughly $8,850 a year, and the statewide average bill has already pushed past $9,800. North Carolina’s effective property tax rate is 0.62 percent. On the same $500,000 home — the better house you bought for less money — that is about $3,100 a year.

The difference is more than $5,700 annually. Every single year. That is before you factor in that North Carolina has a flat income tax rate of 3.99 percent — dropping further — while New Jersey’s top rate hits 10.75 percent. That is before you factor in car insurance, which costs the average NJ driver about $3,400 a year compared to roughly $1,600 in North Carolina. That is before the tolls.

Add it up and the gap between living in New Jersey and living in Charlotte or Raleigh is not a number. It is a lifestyle.

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What I found out about those cities

I want to be fair here, because during those months I paid real attention to both places. Charlotte feels like a city — South End, NoDa, Plaza Midwood, Dilworth. Real neighborhoods with restaurants and music and a downtown that works. Raleigh has the Research Triangle, Apple, Google, a university ecosystem that brings in young energy and jobs. The weather is genuinely good — not Florida humid, not the frozen tundra —this past winter fresh in our minds. 

Both cities are growing fast because people from New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania keep arriving and discovering what the math already told them.

I have my own South Carolina data point too. In May of 2020, at the peak of COVID, Linda and I drove down to Charleston for over a week. Our reason was straightforward — South Carolina was still largely open when New Jersey was not. Open restaurants. Open bars. Folly Beach was packed and alive while the Jersey Shore sat empty. I liked it there. I liked the pace, the vibe, the waterfront. I remember thinking, I could live here. And what your money buys you in Charleston versus here is its own kind of revelation.

SEE ALSO: 192,00 have left NJ since 2020 — Is your town next on the list 

Our home — 33 years and counting | photo by EJ

Our home — 33 years and counting | photo by EJ

So why didn’t I go

Because of thirty-three years in the same house. Because of raising two kids here. Because of the friends we have known since before any of this happened. Because holiday and summer weekend gatherings are not a flight away.

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When I thought about it honestly — really honestly — I realized I would rather leave the business I love than leave the home, the family, and the community we have spent a lifetime building. That is what kept me here. Not the taxes. Not the property values. Not the math — which, as I have just laid out, loses badly.

I made peace with that. I am genuinely glad I stayed. I am exactly where I want to be.

People leaving New Jersey are not leaving because they want to. They are leaving because the math eventually wins. I just happened to be one of the ones for whom it did not.

At least not yet.

LOOK: Here’s where people in every state are moving to most

Stacker analyzed the Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey data to determine the three most popular destinations for people moving out of each state.

Gallery Credit: Amanda Silvestri

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Why Paul McNeil Would Benefit From Another Season at NC State

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Why Paul McNeil Would Benefit From Another Season at NC State


RALEIGH — As NC State head coach Justin Gainey begins making noise in the transfer portal, one major retention question looms large over the program: What will Paul McNeil do? The sharpshooter reportedly intends to enter the transfer portal, although he hasn’t made things official yet. However, he left things open for a return to the Pack after spending the first two seasons of his career there.

McNeil could be a key bridge player for Gainey as he tries to rebuild NC State following a mass exodus in the final days of the Will Wade era, which lasted just one season. The sophomore guard established a close relationship with Wade during their lone year together and also potentially played himself into the NBA Draft conversation. Still, he might benefit most from sticking it out in Raleigh.


Gainey could add another element to McNeil

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Tennessee associate head coach Justin Gainey during the NCAA Tournament Elite 8 game against Michigan at the United Center in Chicago on March 29, 2026. | Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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NC State’s new coach established a reputation over his 20 years as an assistant as one of the best defensive coaches in the country. Most recently at Tennessee, Gainey helped the Volunteers become one of the most consistent and stingy defenses in the country in all five seasons he spent there, something many around Raleigh hope travels with Gainey.

At 6-foot-5, McNeil has the athleticism and wingspan to develop into a much stronger defender. He had several chase-down blocks and incredibly bouncy defensive highlights during the 2025-26 season under Wade. Gainey might see the potential in the talented guard and tap into it even further if he can convince him to stay, turning McNeil into a 3-and-D weapon.

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An opportunity to leave a legacy

Feb 7, 2026; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Quadir Copeland (11), forward Ven-Allen Lubin (22) and guard Jr. Paul McNeil (2) during the first half of the game against the Virginia Tech Hokies at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images
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McNeil, like Gainey, is a native of North Carolina, hailing from nearby Rockingham. As a high schooler, the guard made a name for himself when he shattered the state record for most points in a game, scoring 71 points. He ultimately decided to stay close to home and chose NC State, joining then-coach Kevin Keatts. He stuck it out through one coaching change.

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When he earned a starting role under Wade with his work ethic and incredible 3-point shooting, McNeil became a fan favorite at NC State. His confident personality and love for the area and school only helped with that. Now, he has a chance to take that love to another level if he chooses to stay in Raleigh for one more season.


Buying time for the pros

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Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Jr. Paul McNeil (2) pressured by Virginia Cavaliers guard Jacari White (6) during the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

There are completely reasonable financial reasons for McNeil to make a move, as some of the reported offers for other high-profile transfers are truly life-changing numbers for college athletes. However, if the decision comes down to NC State and the NBA Draft process, it’s probably in McNeil’s best interest to stay put for one more season.

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After averaging 13.8 points on 42.7% from 3-point range in his sophomore year, McNeil’s usage and role would be even bigger should he choose to return to NC State. Another season with even gaudier numbers, coupled with potential defensive improvements under Gainey’s watch, could vault the guard from second-round pick into first-round conversations.




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Over 100 breweries tap into a brew-tiful 3rd annual NC Pint Day

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Over 100 breweries tap into a brew-tiful 3rd annual NC Pint Day


More than 100 breweries and retailers across North Carolina are pulling up chairs to celebrate the third annual North Carolina Pint Day on Sunday, April 12.

Pint Day is an initiative to help promote, prepare and protect independent craft breweries in North Carolina.

HIGHLAND BREWING FOUNDER IGNITES THE ASHEVILLE BEER SCENE, TAPPING INTO THE AMERICAN DREAM

Each year, the North Carolina Brewers Guild celebrates with a limited edition collectible pint glass. This year’s glass was designed by Asheville-based artist Sadie Tynch.

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According to the North Carolina Brewers Guild website, the design illustrates a blend of North Carolina’s native wildlife, botanical life, music, agriculture and community.

“Three years in, NC Pint Day has become something bigger than the glass itself,” said Lisa Parker, Executive Director of the North Carolina Craft Brewers Guild, in a news release. “ North Carolina’s independent craft breweries have long doubled as third spaces and community anchors, the kind of places where a neighborhood fundraiser gets organized, a local band plays their first show, or two strangers end up talking for hours. This glass is a celebration of that!”

According to a news release, with every glass bought, $1 will be sold directly to the North Carolina Craft Brewers Guild’s work for advocating, educating, and promoting the state’s craft brewing industry.

ASHEVILLE, MILLS RIVER BREWERIES WIN BIG AT THE 2025 WORLD BEER CUP

NC Pint Day is part of the Guild’s Hop into Spring campaign that encourages North Carolinians and visitors to explore, enjoy, and support local breweries across the state.

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For a full list of participating breweries, visit here.



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