Over his 26 years in the North Carolina State Senate, Sen. Phil Berger has carved out significant influence, and since becoming the Senate leader in 2011, he has been one of the most powerful political players in the state. But Berger’s grip on the state’s Republican Party is now at risk of tumbling away due to a popular, cowboy hat-wearing sheriff from Rockingham County.

Sam Page, who has been the sheriff of Rockingham County since 1998, is running against Berger for State Senate District 26, which includes Rockingham County and parts of Guilford County. David McLennan, a political science professor at Meredith College, said Page’s popularity in Rockingham stems from the fact that sheriffs in rural counties like Rockingham are oftentimes the most powerful politicians in that county. He said it’s significant to see a figure like Berger be at risk of losing in the primaries.

“He has been, again, one of the two most powerful people in North Carolina for almost 15 years, and so, it’s unusual to see a well-entrenched politician be in danger of losing a primary election,” McLennan said. 

Berger, who will face off against Page on Election Day on March 3, helped lead the movement on a sweeping crime bill passed last year. But in terms of policies, the two are not that far apart, as both are conservative Republicans, but Page is arguing that he is more connected to the district, said McLennan. University of North Carolina at Charlotte political science professor Eric Heberlig said this issue is putting him at risk of losing the race.

“He’s really become a state party leader, as much, or from his critics’ perspective, more than a local representative,” Heberlig said. 

A big thorn in Berger’s side is his past efforts to pass legislation that would have brought a casino to Rockingham in 2023. He ultimately backed out after backlash from county residents and fellow members of the General Assembly. McLennan called this the “flashpoint issue” of the race. 

“What Sam Page is using it as is an example of how Phil Berger, because he’s been such a powerful politician in Raleigh for so long, he’s not in tune with his constituents like Sam Page is,” McLennan said. 

In a written statement to Elon News Network, Page emphasized his connection to the county.

“I believe as a state senator that the public you serve should have your ear when it comes to policies that affect our citizens, not special interests, or lobbyists, or corporations,” Page wrote. “Running for Senate is not about an office. It’s about a responsibility to our citizens.”

Berger did not respond to Elon News Network’s request for comment. 

According to Page’s statement to ENN, economics are at the heart of his campaign. Page emphasized that after Berger’s two decades of representing Rockingham County, Rockingham is still a Tier 1 county, meaning that it is one of the most economically depressed counties in the state. He also brought up the state budget impasse, which has largely focused on Berger and Rep. Destin Hall’s opposing viewpoints.

“Unlike my opponent, I don’t believe that the state budget should be held up by leadership for their own pet projects,” Page wrote. “When you do that, the state employees, government progress, and our citizens across our district and North Carolina suffer.”

A potential difference maker in the race could be gaining the favor of President Trump. Both are friendly with Trump, but Trump has endorsed Berger and said he preferred Page to come work in Washington, D.C. Heberlig said that when dealing with two candidates with similar policy beliefs, endorsements can help voters differentiate between the two. 

“Trump has been a kingmaker in most Republican primaries. Typically, whoever he endorses wins just because he’s the key popular figure among the Republican base,” Heberlig said. “The way you tell them apart is Donald Trump certifying this is the real Donald Trump candidate.”

McLennan said that people outside District 26 should still be watching this race because of the potential effects of a Berger loss. He said that if Berger loses, it could be a sign to the NC Republican Party that they need to rethink their strategy going forward.

“It could be a sign that the party is just not as kept up with the voters as much as they could have,” McLennan said. “I think it could be a little bit of just they’re not in touch with what’s going on at the local level.”

Heberlig said people should pay attention to this race because Berger, as the Senate majority leader, has a strong influence on what type of legislation gets passed, affecting all North Carolinians. He said a different Senate leader might not be as dug in as Berger seems to be on the state budget issue, allowing for more compromise.   

Polls have shown an extremely tight race with Berger trailing Page in some polls, largely due to Page leading significantly in Rockingham County. But Berger could make up the difference in Guilford County. 

However, Berger still holds an advantage over Page with serious political backers and a war chest of funding, having raised 53 times as much as Page, according to NC Newsline. But if Page were to topple the Senate leader, a tremendous impact could be felt by the North Carolina General Assembly and the lobbying community that Berger has built up, according to Heberlig. This would lead to a new Senate leader controlling the chamber, and potentially a shift in the saga of the state budget stalemate.

“It would certainly be a huge shock wave through Raleigh,” Heberlig said. “He’s basically built the Republican Party apparatus in Raleigh. So without that pivot point, it would be a tremendous earthquake.”