The North Carolina Tar Heels open the NCAA Tournament against the VCU Rams, one of the trendiest upset bets in the field.

According to BetMGM’s John Ewing, the Rams are the most-bet underdog to win outright among the 16 games on Thursday at +125 on the moneyline.

UNC enters this game as a 2.5-point favorite despite being the No. 6 seed in the South region. BYU, which will face Texas, is the only other team seeded sixth or higher with such a close spread.

This game is also being played in Greenville, SC, a little more than a three-hour drive from Chapel Hill. That drive would be about twice as long for VCU fans coming from Richmond, VA.

North Carolina vs. VCU prediction, best bet

Careful observers of college hoops know why VCU is getting so much love from the public ahead of March Madness. 

UNC freshman Caleb Wilson won’t be available after breaking his thumb in practice; he was already missing in action with a left hand injury that happened in February. Wilson led North Carolina in points (19.8), rebounds (9.4), assists (2.7), steals (1.5) and blocks (1.4) and is likely going to be a top-three pick in this year’s NBA Draft.

Replacing all that production is nearly impossible, but UNC kept itself afloat, going 5-3 since he was sidelined. Knowing that he won’t return will certainly be on his teammates’ minds with the spotlight on them in Round 1.

The Rams, meanwhile, have been a well-oiled machine with a 16-1 record since early January. Their season-long metrics are impressive: 49th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 35th in 3-point percentage. They have good shooters in their rotation and size up front with 6-foot-11 Lazar Djokovic.

Betting on College Basketball?

The Tar Heels also have size with 7-footer Henri Veesaar, who can score inside and is shooting 42 percent from beyond the arc. He’ll be a matchup problem for the Rams all game in pick-and-roll situations and can open up outside shots when he dives to the rim on those plays.

I also think UNC has the intangibles to avoid a potential upset. They are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country and they don’t turn the ball over, which are two keys to limiting extra possessions. 

The hype around VCU is understandable, but I think bettors are undervaluing the rest of this UNC team. Yes Wilson’s absence lowers the Tar Heels’ ceiling, but they have still performed well without him.

I’m fading the public and riding with UNC to cover the 2.5-point spread here.

The Pick: UNC -2.5 (-110, BetMGM)

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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.