Fox News Decision Desk projects Democratic Rep. Don Davis will be the winner against Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, considered a toss-up race this election cycle.

Davis, who won the seat in 2022 after the retirement of longtime Democrat G.K. Butterfield, is a former state senator and mayor. He also has a military background as an Air Force officer.

Buckhout is a retired U.S. Army colonel with extensive experience in military logistics and national security. 

While the 1st District has historically leaned Democratic and has a large Black population, recent electoral trends in North Carolina are showing growing Republican support in rural areas, where conservatives are largely dissatisfied with Democratic policies on issues such as the economy and agriculture. 

The district, which covers much of the northeastern part of the state, includes rural counties, the Inner Banks, and parts of the Research Triangle. 

POLITICAL STORM: ON TRUMP ‘ONSLAUGHT OF LIES,’ BIDEN URGES FORMER PRESIDENT TO ‘GET A LIFE MAN’

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POLITICAL STORM: ON TRUMP ‘ONSLAUGHT OF LIES,’ BIDEN URGES FORMER PRESIDENT TO ‘GET A LIFE MAN’

Democrats in North Carolina emerged from election night with key victories up and down the ballot. But they failed to break Donald Trump’s hold on the battleground state for a third straight time as he cruised to a second term.

The results — still unofficial as of Wednesday — saw Democrats keep hold of critical statewide offices, win the state’s sole competitive U.S. House race and gain just enough support to potentially weaken a Republican stranglehold in the statehouse.

But that success failed to translate for Vice President Kamala Harris, as Donald Trump again emerged a victor in a cycle that largely retained the Tar Heel State’s partisan status quo.

The former president, returning to the White House after a tumultuous campaign that included a criminal conviction and assassination attempt, proved that he remains a unique electoral force among Republicans in North Carolina.

“He’s Teflon,” said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University, in an interview with NC Newsline. “The things that took down (Lt. Gov.) Mark Robinson, that took down (superintendent candidate) Michele Morrow, don’t seem to take down Donald Trump. He defies patterns we think we know, and we think we understand.”

Robinson, the GOP nominee for governor, rose to prominence in Trump’s image with headline-grabbing speeches and controversial policy proposals. But ultimately, Robinson could not overcome a series of scandals that led to national Republicans — including Trump — abandoning his campaign.

The lieutenant governor ran more than half a million votes behind Trump, collecting just 40% of the vote, to Trump’s 51%. And while Republicans lost several other key Council of State races — including attorney general and superintendent of public instruction — they were thin margins by comparison.

“It didn’t seem to have a clear impact on the other Council of State races,” said David McLennan, a political science professor at Meredith College and director of the Meredith Poll, of Robinson and the governor’s race.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Jeff Jackson defeated his House colleague, U.S. Rep. Dan Bishop, in the race for AG, coming away with 51.3% of the vote. Mo Green, running to oversee public schools, earned 51% of the vote over Morrow. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall narrowly eked out another term, and state Sen. Rachel Hunt took the lieutenant governor’s race.

In a redistricted congressional map, North Carolina’s sole competitive U.S. House seat also stayed in Democratic hands. U.S. Rep. Don Davis was set to narrowly prevail over Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout.

And pending recounts, Democrats in the General Assembly appeared to hit a major landmark — breaking the Republican veto-proof supermajority in the House.

Republicans hold their own in down-ballot Council of State, judicial races

Still, Republicans had wins of their own to tout Wednesday.

They flipped the auditor’s office, with Dave Boliek defeating Jessica Holmes. Luke Farley will be the new labor commissioner, succeeding fellow Republican Josh Dobson; and Brad Briner won the race for treasurer. GOP incumbents won another term as commissioners of insurance and agriculture.

But a lack of prominent statewide Republican officeholders is likely to spur fights to climb the ladder, as sections of the party eye a potential primary challenge to U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis in 2026.

“I think we’ll probably see a real battle for the next two years,” McLennan said.

The GOP’s biggest gains of the night came in the judiciary: they swept Court of Appeals races, and as of Wednesday, Republican challenger Jefferson Griffin leads state Supreme Court Associate Justice Allison Riggs.

“You’ve seen on the judicial races, conservative candidates carry the day,” North Carolina GOP chair Jason Simmons told reporters after the election.

How North Carolina voted, and what it meant for the presidential race

About 73% of registered voters in North Carolina turned out this cycle, according to an initial analysis by Catawba College’s Michael Bitzer.

If that figure remains, it represents a slight dip from the 2020 general election (75.3%). And turnout appears to have varied significantly across counties and regions.

Am still digesting a lot from last night, but this #ncpol county turnout rate seems to say a great deal.

NC cast 5.6M ballots out of 7.7M registered voters, for a 73% state turnout rate.

But substantial variation in the 100 counties: pic.twitter.com/m79LoFLWeM

— Dr. Michael Bitzer (@BowTiePolitics) November 6, 2024

Despite Hurricane Helene wreaking havoc on the mountains weeks before polls opened, impacted counties were among those with the highest turnout in the state.

“It was nice to see strong turnout in western North Carolina,” McLennan said.

In fact, several of those counties hit a mark rarely achieved by Harris nationally — a higher margin of votes for Democrats than in 2020.

Asheville’s Buncombe County shifted 3.5 percentage points toward Democrats since 2020, according to New York Times data. And there was reason for optimism in places Harris still fell short: Henderson County, just south of Buncombe, shifted 4.2 percentage points toward her compared to 2020.

But Democratic strongholds in the Piedmont failed to deliver the margins needed for Harris to remain competitive. Wake County shifted 1.1 points toward Trump since 2020, and Charlotte’s Mecklenburg County shifted 2.4 points to the right.

Trump, meanwhile, ran up the margins in rural counties beyond his 2020 totals. Among the biggest gains: a 4-point gain in coastal Pamlico County, and an almost 7-point gain in Bladen County.

“[Democrats] had a great ground operation leading up to the election, knocking on doors, that sort of thing,” McLennan said. “But they simply didn’t turn out the vote.”

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) — On Election Day, North Carolina continued its history of ticket splitting. It was a repeat of 2016 and 2020, where Donald Trump carried North Carolina in the race for President, but at the same time a Democrat was elected to be the state’s Governor.

In 2024, the trend was even more pronounced. Trump carried North Carolina by about 3 percent of the vote, while Democrat Josh Stein defeated Mark Robinson by 15 percentage points in the Governor’s race.

Down ballot, it was an even stronger picture for local Democrats. Rachel Hunt flipped the Lt. Governor’s seat for Democrats, and Democrats also won the Attorney General and State School Superintendent’s races.

SEE ALSO | NC Democrats poised to break Republican supermajority in House, strengthening Stein’s veto power

So who are some of those ticket-splitters? We spoke with one of the Democratic candidates who flipped a Republican seat in in the legislature in Wilson County. Democrat Dante Pittman says he believes appealing to the middle and focusing on the needs of rural communities may have let to some cross-party support.

“One of the things that I was up front about from the very beginning when I ran was that I’m a moderate Democrat. And here in eastern North Carolina and and Wilson County especially, we have a lot of moderate Democrats, folks that are willing to work across the aisle, folks that believe that you you see people on the other side, that you can come to a good compromise,” Pittman says.

Pittman’s Wilson-based district is among those flipped seats that helped break the GOP supermajority in the state legislature.

It’s also why some political experts still believe North Carolina will continue to be a battleground in the years ahead.

“I think that Trump winning again will mean that we get more questions about whether we’re a swing state,” says professor Jason Husser from Elon University.

“But as of now, we definitely are. We saw a massive victory of a Democratic gubernatorial candidate. Democrats doing well in other statewide elections in North Carolina, and Trump winning the state decisively, but not with such a margin that North Carolina couldn’t be won by Democrats in 2028.”

Despite the national GOP trend in 2024, the dynamics of North Carolina’s population growing, especially in the Triangle will mean continued competitive races.

Another major change this cycle was for the first time 2012, the Governor and Lt. Governor were from the same political party. Stein will be joined by fellow Democrat Rachel Hunt when he takes office.