Southern at Mississippi State odds, picks and predictions

The Southern Jaguars (1-6) and Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-1) tangle in a Sunday matinee in Starkville. Tip-off at Humphrey Coliseum will be at 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Southern vs. Mississippi State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

Southern continues through its David schedule against Goliaths. The Jaguars have already met TCU, Arizona, Illinois and Marquette. All are top-30 in KenPom. Now, SU totes a 5-game losing streak (straight up and against the spread) into Sunday’s battle in Starkville, the 1st meeting between these 2 programs since 2015 when the Jaguars earned a 76-72 win over MSU.

The Bulldogs, which are No. 22 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, won their 1st 6 games this season, but they faltered at Georgia Tech (67-59) in their last game on Nov. 28 as a -8.5 favorite. Mississippi State shot just 30.8% from the floor in getting stung by the Yellow Jackets.

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Southern at Mississippi State odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:25 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Southern +3000 (bet $100 to win $3,000) | Mississippi State -10000 (bet $10,000 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Southern +25.5 (-104) | Mississippi State -25.5 (-118)
• Over/Under (O/U): 141.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Southern at Mississippi State picks and predictions

Prediction

Mississippi State 85, Southern 54

Moneyline

PASS: no leverage here.

Against the spread

Southern is on the bogey train with its 5 straight ATS setbacks. Three of those — against Arizona, Illinois and Marquette — were games tagged with the Jaguars as an underdog of 24.5 points or more.

SU’s road to a cover is paved all along the 3-point arc. But the Bulldogs have been silly-good in cutting off perimeter attacks so far. They have allowed a 25% success rate; that ranks 7th in the nation. Should we expect some regression there? Yes, but that type of defense is also systemic in coach Chris Jans’ style.

Jans should have his team’s attention after the setback at GTU, and MSU figures to dominate all the efficiency angles, the boards and the charity stripe.

A run-ragged-over-their-heads Southern team may not have enough in the tank to stay within 35 here. Consider a partial-unit play on MISSISSIPPI STATE -25.5 (-118).

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Over/Under

Expect an above-average pace with a lot of MSU 2nd chances and foul shots, a perhaps decent number of Jaguars transition looks, but not many triples. The number here is well-made. PASS.

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