Coming off a disappointing loss to Georgia, the Kentucky Wildcats will hit the road again on Saturday, this time against the 14th-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Led by third-year head coach Chris Jans, the Bulldogs currently hold their highest ranking since the 2018-19 season. It’s not been due to a poor schedule either, as the Bulldogs have the eighth-strongest strength of record according to ESPN, including four Quad I wins.

Ranked top 25 in KenPom offensive and defensive efficiency, Mississippi State is just one of 11 teams that fit that criteria. That said, Kentucky is 2-0 against such teams as Duke and Florida.

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Rebounding Battle

Kentucky’s biggest issue of late has been rebounding, which Mark Pope called a “major issue” after the loss to Georgia. The Wildcats have been outrebounded in four straight games, including Brown, and have given up double-digit offensive rebounds in back-to-back games to start SEC play.

The rebounding battle is not going to be any easier against Mississippi State, who ranks 30th in rebounds per game (39.3) and grabs 34.4% of their own misses.

On paper, Kentucky has more size, and it will be important for ALL five players to box out. As they teach in youth basketball, Hit-Turn-Drive-Purse.

Take Care of the Ball

Kentucky has been one of the top ten teams in the country in taking care of the ball, but they coughed it up 13 times to Georgia, their second-highest mark of the season.

On the other side, Mississippi State is really good at forcing turnovers. Per game, the Bulldogs turn their opponent over nearly 15 times. About ten of those come from steals, where they rank in the top 10 nationally.

Kentucky has scored more than 1 point per possession this season, so think of it as leaving points on the board. They need to commit nine or fewer turnovers.

Physicality

The officiating has not been great in Kentucky’s first two SEC contests. However, that’s just part of the game. As Mark Pope says, only focus on what you can control.

One thing they can focus on and control is their level of physicality. Kentucky responded to the physicality of Florida but never matched it against Georgia, and that is a big reason why they lost.

Again, Kentucky has the size, but they have to show the mentality. In the SEC you have to be the most physical team or meet the level every night out.

Opposing Players to Watch

G Josh Hubbard 5-11, 190 lbs

• 17.1 PPG (T-9th in SEC)
• 3.3 APG
• 38.2% 3P

F Keshawn Murphy 6-10, 230 lbs

• 9.9 PPG
• 7.7 RPG (9th in SEC)
• 1.3 BPG

F Cameron Matthews 6-7, 235 lbs

• 6.9 RPG
• 4.1 APG (8th in SEC)
• 2.5 SPG (1st in SEC)

Time: 8:30 PM ET

Date: January 11th, 2024

Location: Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville, Mississippi

TV Channel: SEC Network

Announcers: Dave Neal and Jon Sundvold will call the action.

Online Stream: You can stream the game online using ESPN+ and the ESPN app.

Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.

Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).

Rosters: UK | MISS ST

Stats to Know: UK | MISS ST

KenPom: UK | MISS ST

Team Sheet: UK | MISS ST

Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds for the game, so please check back later for those, but assume Kentucky will be an underdog. ESPN is the most confident in Kentucky’s chances to win…at just 36.8%. EvanMiya is the most pessimistic, giving the Cats just a 28.1% chance of victory. Bart Torvik (33%) and KenPom (31%) fall in between.

Predictions: The analytics have Kentucky losing by 5+ points in Stakrville. Haslametrics has Kentucky losing 86-79. EvanMiya has the Cats losing 82-76. Bart Torvik (85-80) and KenPom (84-79) are going with a five-point loss. I think Kentucky struggles again with another physical team that is more talented than Georgia or Ohio State. I believe Kentucky will drop a second straight, 78-72.

How do you see this one going? Send us your Kentucky vs. Mississippi State score predictions in the comments section!

Go Cats!!