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Miami vs. Louisville football prediction: What the analytics say

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Miami vs. Louisville football prediction: What the analytics say


ACC football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 6 Miami is back from its open week on the road against Louisville in college football’s Week 8 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.

Miami is one of college football’s 11 undefeated teams this week, scoring over 38 points in each game and ranking 1st nationally in both scoring offense and average passing yardage.

Louisville was ranked before losing 2 straight games, at Notre Dame and at home against SMU, falling to 2-1 in ACC play, but rebounded last week with a 4 point victory against Virginia.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

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The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

So far, the simulations give a slight edge to the visiting team to stay perfect.

Miami is projected to win the game outright in the majority 55.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the matchup.

That leaves Louisville as the expected winner in the remaining 44.6 percent of sims.

In total, the Hurricanes came out ahead in 11,080 of the index’s simulations for the game, while the Cardinals won out in the other 8,920 predictions.

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The index also projects a close result on the scoreboard.

Miami is projected to be just 2.1 points better than Louisville on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Hurricanes to cover the spread.

That’s because Miami is a 4.5 point favorite against Louisville, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 61.5 points for the game.

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And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -200 and for Louisville at +170 to win outright.

A plurality of bettors expect the Hurricanes will take care of the Cardinals on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

About 60 percent of bets project Miami will beat Louisville and cover the spread.

And the other 40 percent of wagers expect the Cardinals will either win in an upset, or keep the game within the narrow line.

Miami is first among ACC teams with a 72 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

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The index suggests the Hurricanes are 17.7 points better than an average team on a neutral field, ranking No. 10 nationally.

That model gives Louisville a win total prediction of 7.8 games and lists the team as fifth in the ACC with a 7.9 percent shot at the playoff.

FPI forecasts the Cardinals will be 14.1 points better than an average team on a neutral field, good for 16th nationally.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

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Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses

  1. Texas (56)
  2. Oregon (6)
  3. Penn State
  4. Ohio State
  5. Georgia
  6. Miami
  7. Alabama
  8. LSU
  9. Iowa State
  10. Clemson
  11. Tennessee
  12. Notre Dame
  13. BYU
  14. Texas A&M
  15. Boise State
  16. Indiana
  17. Kansas State
  18. Ole Miss
  19. Missouri
  20. Pittsburgh
  21. SMU
  22. Illinois
  23. Army
  24. Michigan
  25. Navy

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Miami, FL

Hawks sitting all usual starters against Miami

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Hawks sitting all usual starters against Miami


Kevin Chouinard: Hawks missing lots of players tonight. For tonight’s game at Miami: Mo Gueye (right shoulder inflammation) is questionable. Nickeil Alexander-Walker (right great toe sprain) is out. Dyson Daniels (left great toe sprain) is out. Jalen Johnson (rest) is out. Jonathan Kuminga (left knee injury management) is out. Jock Landale (right high ankle sprain) is out. CJ McCollum (rest) is out. Onyeka Okongwu (left index finger sprain) is out. Gabe Vincent (left knee inflammation) is out.

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This article originally appeared on Hoops Hype: Hawks sitting all usual starters against Miami



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Miami, FL

Who is Rueben Bain Jr\ufeff? Miami Hurricanes draft prospect visits Bengals

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Who is Rueben Bain Jr\ufeff? Miami Hurricanes draft prospect visits Bengals


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2026 NFL draft prospects Jacob Rodriguez of Texas Tech and Rueben Bain Jr. of University of Miami visited the Cincinnati Bengals on April 10, according to NFL Network, along with fellow Miami Hurricanes edge Akheem Mesidor.

Nicknamed “Hurricane,” Bain is expected to be selected in the first round of the upcoming draft, and could be gone when the Bengals are scheduled to select at 10th overall.

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Todd McShay has said he expects the Bengals to strongly consider Bain with the 10th pick. Yahoo! Sports’ Nate Tice has the Bengals taking Bain at No. 10.

“The Bengals go with the antithesis of their first-round selection from a year ago, trading the high-end tools and low-end production of Shemar Stewart with the top-end production and effort but lack of ideal length of Bain,” Tice wrote. “If Stewart taps into even a small portion of his talent and with Boye Mafe joining in free agency, the Bengals’ edge spots could be more impactful in a hurry and feel a lot different soon.”

What to know about Bain, who was a college teammate of Bengals offensive lineman Jalen Rivers for two seasons:

Bain played three seasons for the Hurricanes.

As a junior in 2025, Bain was named second-team Associated Press All-American, ACC defensive player of the year and first-team All-ACC.

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Bain started all 16 games in his final season at Miami, recording 54 tackles and 15.5 tackles for loss with 9.5 sacks, an interception, a pass breakup and a forced fumble).

Bain earned the Ted Hendricks Award, given annually to college football’s top defensive end. He was a finalist for the Lott IMPACT Trophy, given to the nation’s top defender with Integrity, Maturity, Performance, Academics, Community, Tenacity.

As a sophomore in 2024, Bain was named honorable mention all-ACC. He started nine games, and missed four games because of an injury.

A freshman All-American, Bain was named third-team all-ACC and ACC defensive rookie of the year in his first season with the ‘Canes. He led the team that season with three forced fumbles, and tied for the team lead with 7.5 sacks.

Lance Zierlein’s NFL comparison for Bain is the Philadelphia Eagles’ Brandon Graham.

“Note taker, grudge holder and block destructor with a compact frame and defensive tackle play strength,” Zierlein wrote in Bain’s NFL.com draft profile. “Bain is ill-tempered with his take-ons, hitting blockers with heavy hand strikes. … Bain’s explosive power and toughness should translate, giving him a high floor as an NFL starter.”

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Daniel Jeremiah compares Bain to former NFL linebacker Melvin Ingram.

A USA Today mock draft had Bain going ninth overall, to the Chiefs.

Interestingly, Bain visited Kansas City one day before his reported Cincinnati visit.

Bain has dismissed post-combine discussion of his arm length. At 30 7/8 inches, Bain’s arms are among the shortest in the class.

“I didn’t hear it until later in the year, but it kind of surprised me because I never heard it all my life,” Bain said at the combine. “I don’t give it the time of day, honestly.”

“Mike Tyson, he wasn’t the tallest guy, wasn’t the longest-limbed guy, but when you felt him, you felt him,” Bain told NFL Network’s Cameron Wolfe. “You kept your distance.”

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Police investigate 2 Miami scenes after a shooting that left a man hospitalized

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Police investigate 2 Miami scenes after a shooting that left a man hospitalized



A man is in the hospital after being shot in Liberty City on Wednesday evening, prompting a police investigation that spans two scenes, according to the Miami Police Department (MPD).

The victim, a man in his late 40s, was located at a second scene after the initial gunfire and was rushed to Ryder Trauma Center via ground transport under a “trauma alert”.

The shooting investigation began after MPD received a ShotSpotter alert around 7:21 p.m.. The first scene, where crime scene investigators were seen taking photos outside an apartment building, is along Northwest 58th Street and 13th Avenue. When officers arrived, they found shell casings but no victim.

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A short time later, the Miami-Dade Sheriff’s Office contacted Miami police regarding a second location—Northwest 69th Street and 21st Avenue—tied to the same alert. The victim was found at this second location before being taken to the hospital.

It remains unclear how the victim ended up at the second location. No arrests have been made in connection with the shooting.



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