Miami, FL
Miami vs. Louisville football prediction: What the analytics say
ACC football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 6 Miami is back from its open week on the road against Louisville in college football’s Week 8 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.
Miami is one of college football’s 11 undefeated teams this week, scoring over 38 points in each game and ranking 1st nationally in both scoring offense and average passing yardage.
Louisville was ranked before losing 2 straight games, at Notre Dame and at home against SMU, falling to 2-1 in ACC play, but rebounded last week with a 4 point victory against Virginia.
Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.
So far, the simulations give a slight edge to the visiting team to stay perfect.
Miami is projected to win the game outright in the majority 55.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the matchup.
That leaves Louisville as the expected winner in the remaining 44.6 percent of sims.
In total, the Hurricanes came out ahead in 11,080 of the index’s simulations for the game, while the Cardinals won out in the other 8,920 predictions.
The index also projects a close result on the scoreboard.
Miami is projected to be just 2.1 points better than Louisville on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Hurricanes to cover the spread.
That’s because Miami is a 4.5 point favorite against Louisville, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 61.5 points for the game.
And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -200 and for Louisville at +170 to win outright.
A plurality of bettors expect the Hurricanes will take care of the Cardinals on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
About 60 percent of bets project Miami will beat Louisville and cover the spread.
And the other 40 percent of wagers expect the Cardinals will either win in an upset, or keep the game within the narrow line.
Miami is first among ACC teams with a 72 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.
The index suggests the Hurricanes are 17.7 points better than an average team on a neutral field, ranking No. 10 nationally.
That model gives Louisville a win total prediction of 7.8 games and lists the team as fifth in the ACC with a 7.9 percent shot at the playoff.
FPI forecasts the Cardinals will be 14.1 points better than an average team on a neutral field, good for 16th nationally.
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
First-place votes in parentheses
- Texas (56)
- Oregon (6)
- Penn State
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Miami
- Alabama
- LSU
- Iowa State
- Clemson
- Tennessee
- Notre Dame
- BYU
- Texas A&M
- Boise State
- Indiana
- Kansas State
- Ole Miss
- Missouri
- Pittsburgh
- SMU
- Illinois
- Army
- Michigan
- Navy
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams
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Miami, FL
Miami Heat Suspend Star Jimmy Butler 7 Games After He Suggests Trade
Topline
Miami Heat star forward Jimmy Butler has been suspended for seven games, the team announced Friday, making the decision one day after Butler suggested a trade from Miami and said he lost his joy for basketball while playing for the team.
Key Facts
The Heat, which have appeared in two NBA Finals since Butler joined the team in 2019, said in a statement the suspension was due to “multiple instances of conduct detrimental to the team over the course of the season and particularly the last several weeks.”
The team noted Butler and his representative have indicated their desire for a trade and that “we will listen to offers.”
The suspension follows comments from Butler made after the Heat’s Thursday loss to the Indiana Pacers, with the six-time all-star telling reporters he wants his joy back from playing basketball elsewhere and wants to play with a “dominant” team (the Heat are in sixth place in the Eastern Conference).
Butler’s dissatisfaction with the Heat appears to be partially rooted in an implication from team officials that he did not play up to his ability in the Heat’s win against the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday, according to ESPN, as Butler returned from a 13-day illness leave to score just nine points.
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Forbes Valuation
Butler ranked No. 7 on Forbes’ list of the NBA’s highest-paid players in 2024, bringing in $48.8 million on the court and $10 million through off-court business ventures.
Key Background
Butler is now in the final year of his roughly $49 million per season contract with the team. Miami Heat president Pat Riley, who said about a week ago the team had no intention of trading Butler, has had a contentious relationship with the star player. Riley suggested Butler should keep his “mouth shut” after the forward said on social media the Heat would have avoided its first-round playoff exit last season if he were healthy and playing. Riley later announced the Heat would not extend Butler’s contract before the current NBA season. Butler is shooting a career-high 55.3% from the field this season, according to ESPN, which noted his teams have made playoff appearances in 12 of his 13 seasons in the NBA.
Further Reading
Heat not trading All-Star Jimmy Butler, Pat Riley says (ESPN)
The NBA’s Highest-Paid Players 2024 (Forbes)
Miami, FL
Cold front will bring South Florida sweater weather over weekend
MIAMI – The CBS Miami NEXT Weather team is tracking two cold fronts that will bring brisk temperatures to South Florida over the next several days.
The first front is set to move in on Friday and will lead to cool lows this weekend. The second front will sweep in early next week and usher in the coldest air of the season so far. Get ready for a rollercoaster ride of temperatures through next week.
It was already a little cooler on Friday morning with temperatures in the low 60s and upper 50s. It will be mostly sunny and dry in the afternoon with seasonable highs in the upper 70s.
The cold front moving through on Friday will cause temperatures to dip into the low 50s. It will be a chilly start to Saturday morning and then highs will remain cool in the low 70s with bright, sunny skies.
There will still be a chill in the air on Sunday morning with lows in the upper 50s. Highs will be comfortable in the low to mid-70s with a mix of sun and clouds.
It will be warmer on Monday as the kids head back to school after the holiday break. Lows will be a little above normal in the mid-60s and highs will climb to around 80 degrees with a southwest breeze.
The second cold front will move in and lows will tumble to the upper 50s by Tuesday morning. Highs will be near 70 degrees on Tuesday afternoon.
Wednesday morning will be the coldest start with lows forecast to drop to the upper 40s inland and low 50s. Highs will stay cool in the upper 60s.
Miami, FL
Jimmy Butler reportedly tells Miami Heat he wants a trade
“I want to see me getting my joy back playing basketball. Wherever that may be.”
With that postgame comment Thursday, Miami’s Jimmy Butler all but confirmed a report that he has asked the Heat for a trade, a story broken by Shams Charania and Brian Windhorst of ESPN.
Six-time All-Star Jimmy Butler has indicated to the Miami Heat he wants the team to trade him, league sources told ESPN. Butler does not plan to furnish the Heat with a list of favored destinations, sources told ESPN. He is open to playing anywhere other than Miami and believes he can make any team a contender — no matter where he is moved. He does plan to take part in all team activities and do whatever the Heat ask of him during this process, sources said.
Butler’s postgame comments echoed that sentiment.
“I want to see me getting my joy back playing basketball. Wherever that may be, we’ll find out here pretty soon,” Butler said. “I’m happy here off the court, but I want to be back to somewhat dominant, I want to hoop and I want to help this team win, and right now I’m not doing it.”
When asked if he can get his joy back on the court with the Heat, Butler responded: “Probably not.”
Butler trade rumors have been flying around the NBA since he didn’t get a contract extension with the Heat last summer (while Bam Adebayo did at three years, $165.8 million). The rumors reached the point that Heat President Pat Riley tried to squash them.
Statement from Pat Riley
“We usually don’t comment on rumors, but all this speculation has become a distraction to the team and is not fair to the players and coaches. Therefore, we will make it clear – We are not trading Jimmy Butler.”
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) December 26, 2024
That did not stop the speculation, although the vibe among league executives at the NBA’s G-League Showcase last month was that it might be summer before Butler was traded, just because a deal that would satisfy Miami is hard to construct. Because Miami is already over the first apron of the luxury tax, it is not allowed to take back $1 more in a trade than it sends out — and most of the teams interested in Butler are in the same situation. Any Butler trade likely involves the Detroit Pistons as a third team, the one team with cap space heading into the trade deadline, meaning they can take on a mid-level exception-sized contract to facilitate a trade.
It’s still not easy to make work. Phoenix is known to have an interest in Butler, but the only way to make that trade work is to send Bradley Beal to Miami. Beal has two years and $100.8 million left on his contract after this season. Do the Heat want to take on a player not as good as Butler right now making that kind of money? The Warriors are known to have interest as they search for a star to put next to Stephen Curry, but the only way to make a Miami/Golden State trade work is a four-or-five-for-one trade with the Warriors such as the Warriors sending out Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, and Kyle Anderson (there likely would be draft picks in mix, also). How high are the Heat on Kuminga, and do they want to have to let go of players on their roster to make this deal work?
Butler’s people saying they are open to a trade to any team tries to open the door to other teams. However, whoever trades for Butler will have to re-sign him or extend him — Butler has a $52.4 million player option and could theoretically walk away from that money and be a free agent (the more likely scenario is he opts into that final year and gets a two-year extension off that, maybe at a lower number than he has been making).
Butler, 35, is still a force on the court most nights, averaging 18 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists a game this season. He is known as a two-way playoff performer who can help a lot of teams, but how many teams want to get into the Jimmy Butler business for multiple years?
We’re going to find out now that Butler and his camp have tried to crank up the pressure to get a trade done. However, Miami will not settle. Some team is going to have to step up with a quality offer to get a deal done, this is no fire sale.
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