Maryland
Illinois vs. Maryland prediction: College basketball odds, pick
There are two certainties in college basketball betting this year.
First, Big Ten home teams win and cover.
Home teams in conference play are 52-41-2 ATS, covering 56% of the time.
Since the start of last season, Big Ten home teams are 132-97-3 ATS.
The Big Ten has the second-highest home-winning percentage of any conference this season, with home-court advantage winning out 72% of the time.
Second, ranked teams on the road either don’t cover or don’t win.
Ranked squads are 81-102-2 ATS on the road this season, and those squads are 26-37-1 as a favorite.
So, when I saw No. 14 Illinois was laying two points in College Park, Maryland, on Saturday, I had to bite.
Illinois vs. Maryland odds
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Illinois | -2.5 (-102) | -130 | o138.5 (-110) |
Maryland | +2.5 (-120) | +108 | u138.5 (-110) |
(Via FanDuel)
Illinois vs. Maryland prediction
(5:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
But as I investigated the game more, I realized the Terps match up well with the Illini.
Maryland has won and covered four of the past five head-to-head matchups, thrice winning outright as underdogs.
That includes a matchup in Champaign earlier this season, where the Terps won by nine as nine-point ‘dogs.
There’s one main reason for that.
Both squads run every opposing offense off the 3-point line.
The Illini rank sixth nationally in 3-point rate allowed, while the Terps rank 13th.
They get there in different ways – Illinois runs a drop-coverage defense while Maryland spams mainly press coverage – but it has the same effect.
That being: Illinois vs Maryland generally devolves into an interior, 2-point shooting, post-up battle.
It’s all about paint buckets.
Maryland has a significant upper hand in that regard, specifically on defense.
The Terps are devastating on the defensive end. Julian Reese is among the nation’s best post-up defenders (.52 PPP allowed, 91st percentile), leading one of the nation’s better post-up defenses (.76 PPP allowed, 84th percentile).
Maryland allows only 28 paint points per game (84th percentile), blocks five shots a night (93rd percentile), and leads the Big Ten in 2-point shooting allowed (46%).
There’s a reason why Maryland ranks fifth nationally in defensive efficiency, and its interior wall is the main reason.
Illinois mainly tries to create offense through isolation and transition sets, leaning heavily on Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask, with Coleman Hawkins and Quincy Gurrier getting action on the interior.
Unfortunately, Maryland is a rock-solid transition defense (.96 PPP allowed, 77th percentile) that’s even better defending on an island (.62 PPP allowed, 92nd percentile).
Jahmir Young, Julian Reese and Donta Scott are three of the Big Ten’s best isolation defenders.
Between those three and Reese, the Terps can match up with Illinois at every position.
Illinois will try to augment its offense with offensive rebounds and second-chance points, but that’ll be tough against a Terps defense that allows only .95 offensive rebound/second-chance PPP (93rd percentile).
Maryland’s interior defense will stand more than firm, and we can’t say the same for Illinois.
The Illini allow 35 paint points per game (16th percentile), which has jumped to 38 in conference play (fifth percentile).
The Illini don’t defend the rim particularly well (8% block rate, 12th in Big Ten) and are merely average against post-up sets (.86 PPP, 49th percentile).
The Terps funnel much of their offense through Reese in the post, but the Kevin Willard offense is mostly about Jahmir Young creating off the dribble.
And that’s huge against the Illini’s drop defense.
Drop-coverage schemes overplay ball handlers on the interior and force them toward an interior big man sagging toward the rim.
Thus, dribble-penetrating guards must create in the middle of the floor, and Young can do that.
In fact, the best way to beat Young and the Terps’ backcourt is to pressure them, given Maryland is the worst ball-handling team in the Big Ten.
But the drop is a passive coverage, so Illinois ranks second-to-last in the conference in defensive turnover rate.
Ultimately, I feel good about Young and Reese managing buckets against the Illini’s questionable, passive interior defense.
Betting on College Basketball?
Meanwhile, I don’t feel good about the Illini’s four big scorers creating individual offense against the Terps.
That’s precisely what happened in the prior matchup.
Reese scored nine of his 20 points on 12 post-up sets, while Young scored 28 on 11-for-20 shooting from 2-point rage.
Overall, the Terps scored 52 paint points while shooting 26 for 48 (54%) from inside the arc and dishing out 14 assists to only seven turnovers.
Meanwhile, the Illini managed only 26 paint points and shot a miserable 15 for 42 (36%) from 2-point range.
They were miserable in ball screens (four points on 14 sets) and posted a negative assist-to-turnover ratio (eight to nine).
Expect more of the same on Saturday and wager accordingly.
Illinois vs. Maryland pick
Maryland +2.5
Maryland
Maryland boy still recovering after parents say he was ‘hung’ while ‘horseplaying’ in a school bathroom – WTOP News
The parents of a boy injured in a hanging incident at a school in Charles County, Maryland, said they don’t think they’re getting the full story.
The parents of a boy injured in a hanging incident at an elementary school school in Charles County, Maryland, said they don’t think they’re getting the full story.
“He has marks under his eyes,” the mother of a 7-year-old boy injured in an incident at school told WUSA9.
She said she was shocked when she saw her son after the second grader was injured in the bathroom at C. Paul Barnhart Elementary School in Waldorf.
“He said that the little boy told him, ‘I’m going to show you how I did people back in the day,’” the mother told WUSA9.
“He still has bruises on his neck from being choked,” the boy’s father said.
Carrie Burke, the principal at the school, issued a statement saying the incident was first reported to 911 as a possible suicide attempt, but she said that’s not true.
“This was then posted on social media by a community member, causing a bit of community concern,” Burke wrote.
“Charles County Public Schools (CCPS) quickly shared an update with you as well as the Barnhart staff to dispel any inaccurate information beginning to circulate. I apologize for the delay in that update, but our administrative team was addressing the needs of our students. The incident was also reported to our school resource officer (SRO),” she said.
The school said that two students were reportedly “horseplaying” in a school bathroom when one of the student’s jacket got caught on a stall door hook.
“The student was not able to free themselves and the other student involved was also not able to help them. This student left the bathroom to seek help from staff and reported the incident to administrators,” she wrote.
Then staff called 911 for “additional precautionary medical support,” Burke said.
The boy’s parents said they think there’s more to the story.
“Doesn’t make sense to me,” the boy’s mom said. “If you’re horseplaying, how do you get caught on the hook? Like, we need answers. I want answers, and we won’t stop until we get them.”
The boy was in second grade at the school and his mom said he would not be returning to the school.
“I feel like it’s bullying, because it’s no telling how many other kids this has happened to and they want the school district to step-up,” the boy’s mom said.
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Maryland
Takeaways from Maryland football’s loss to Rutgers
Maryland football’s season has been defined by terrible losses, and Saturday marked another one.
The Terps welcomed Rutgers to College Park but fell flat on their face, losing 31-17.
Here are three takeaways from the game.
Another week, another disappointing loss
Maryland has slid from its usual post in the middle of the Big Ten standings this year. But this has not been a byproduct of a tough schedule or change of routine with the conference’s newcomers. The Terps are simply losing games they should win.
Maryland finished fourth in the Big Ten East standings in each of the last two seasons; the Terps sit second-to-last in the entire conference this year. They were dismantled by Indiana, Michigan State and now Rutgers this season, all of whom they blew out last year. While Indiana has climbed the national rankings this year, Michigan State and Rutgers have remained the same — Maryland has just been worse.
The Terps were also destroyed by Minnesota and No. 1 Oregon, as they have consistently looked out of place against nearly every conference opponent in 2024.
Whether this is an amalgamation of a lack of talent, poor coaching or a mix of both is up for debate, but there is no denying how disappointing and bad the Terps have been this season.
A different story from previous years
Maryland entered Saturday with history on its side.
The Terps are 7-3 against Rutgers since they both joined the Big Ten in 2014. They have also dominated recent matchups, winning in each of the last three seasons by an average of 26.3 points, including a 42-24 win last year.
“They’re a veteran group,” head coach Michael Locksley said when asked about what is different this year. “Our guys didn’t make enough plays. Those guys executed their gameplan to a tee.”
Saturday’s game was a much different matchup between the two teams. Rutgers led at halftime for the first time in three years and outclassed the Terps in nearly every aspect of the game. The Scarlet Knights outrushed (132 yards to 122), outscored and won the turnover battle (1-0) against Maryland. Rutgers also totaled more passing yards through the first three quarters than Maryland, as Billy Edwards Jr. racked in 181 yards in the fourth quarter and garbage time.
Maryland’s only saving grace was Roman Hemby, who produced one of his best games of the season. He posted 87 yards rushing, 59 yards receiving and a touchdown. He outplayed Rutgers’ star running back Kyle Monangai, but it did not change the outcome.
The Terps’ bowl-game path is closing
Maryland’s streak of three consecutive bowl game appearances is nearly over following Saturday’s loss. With six wins being the magic number for bowl game eligibility, the Terps need to win their final two games to qualify. But the rest of their schedule is no gift.
Next week, Maryland welcomes Iowa to College Park. While the Hawkeyes’ record is not as impressive without the luxury of the Big Ten West, they are still 6-4 and coming off a bye week. Well rested and adequately prepared, Iowa should be favored despite going on the road.
And in the Terps final game stands a near impossible task: No. 4 Penn State. The Nittany Lions have only lost one game this season — to No. 2 Ohio State — and have one of the most talented rosters in the country, led by former five-star quarterback Drew Allar.
The game will be played in Happy Valley — one of the toughest road environments in college football — and Penn State has the Terps number. Since joining the Big Ten, Maryland is 2-8 against Penn State, with the three most recent games ending in a 51-15 loss, a 30-0 loss and a 31-14 loss.
While not impossible, the Terps’ chances at bowl game eligibility are slight, with a 4-8 finish seeming the most likely at this point.
“We got to find a way to turn the page on this one pretty quickly,” Locksley said. “We’ve got Iowa coming in here, again, to keep our season alive … we didn’t get it done today and we’re running out of chances and opportunities.”
Maryland
Maryland 8-year-old starts organization to help the homeless in honor of his father
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