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Illinois vs. Maryland prediction: College basketball odds, pick

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Illinois vs. Maryland prediction: College basketball odds, pick


There are two certainties in college basketball betting this year. 

First, Big Ten home teams win and cover. 

Home teams in conference play are 52-41-2 ATS, covering 56% of the time.

Since the start of last season, Big Ten home teams are 132-97-3 ATS. 

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The Big Ten has the second-highest home-winning percentage of any conference this season, with home-court advantage winning out 72% of the time. 

Second, ranked teams on the road either don’t cover or don’t win. 

Ranked squads are 81-102-2 ATS on the road this season, and those squads are 26-37-1 as a favorite. 

So, when I saw No. 14 Illinois was laying two points in College Park, Maryland, on Saturday, I had to bite. 

Illinois vs. Maryland odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Illinois -2.5 (-102) -130 o138.5 (-110)
Maryland +2.5 (-120) +108 u138.5 (-110)

(Via FanDuel)

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Illinois vs. Maryland prediction

(5:30 p.m. ET, FOX)

But as I investigated the game more, I realized the Terps match up well with the Illini. 

Maryland has won and covered four of the past five head-to-head matchups, thrice winning outright as underdogs.

That includes a matchup in Champaign earlier this season, where the Terps won by nine as nine-point ‘dogs. 

There’s one main reason for that. 

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Both squads run every opposing offense off the 3-point line.

The Illini rank sixth nationally in 3-point rate allowed, while the Terps rank 13th.

They get there in different ways – Illinois runs a drop-coverage defense while Maryland spams mainly press coverage – but it has the same effect. 

That being: Illinois vs Maryland generally devolves into an interior, 2-point shooting, post-up battle.

It’s all about paint buckets. 

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Maryland has a significant upper hand in that regard, specifically on defense. 

The Terps are devastating on the defensive end. Julian Reese is among the nation’s best post-up defenders (.52 PPP allowed, 91st percentile), leading one of the nation’s better post-up defenses (.76 PPP allowed, 84th percentile).

Maryland allows only 28 paint points per game (84th percentile), blocks five shots a night (93rd percentile), and leads the Big Ten in 2-point shooting allowed (46%). 

There’s a reason why Maryland ranks fifth nationally in defensive efficiency, and its interior wall is the main reason. 

Illinois mainly tries to create offense through isolation and transition sets, leaning heavily on Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask, with Coleman Hawkins and Quincy Gurrier getting action on the interior. 

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Unfortunately, Maryland is a rock-solid transition defense (.96 PPP allowed, 77th percentile) that’s even better defending on an island (.62 PPP allowed, 92nd percentile).

Jahmir Young, Julian Reese and Donta Scott are three of the Big Ten’s best isolation defenders.

Jahmir Young of the Maryland Terrapins handles the ball against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Getty Images

Between those three and Reese, the Terps can match up with Illinois at every position. 

Illinois will try to augment its offense with offensive rebounds and second-chance points, but that’ll be tough against a Terps defense that allows only .95 offensive rebound/second-chance PPP (93rd percentile). 

Maryland’s interior defense will stand more than firm, and we can’t say the same for Illinois. 

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The Illini allow 35 paint points per game (16th percentile), which has jumped to 38 in conference play (fifth percentile).

The Illini don’t defend the rim particularly well (8% block rate, 12th in Big Ten) and are merely average against post-up sets (.86 PPP, 49th percentile). 

The Terps funnel much of their offense through Reese in the post, but the Kevin Willard offense is mostly about Jahmir Young creating off the dribble.

And that’s huge against the Illini’s drop defense.

Drop-coverage schemes overplay ball handlers on the interior and force them toward an interior big man sagging toward the rim.

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Thus, dribble-penetrating guards must create in the middle of the floor, and Young can do that. 

In fact, the best way to beat Young and the Terps’ backcourt is to pressure them, given Maryland is the worst ball-handling team in the Big Ten.

But the drop is a passive coverage, so Illinois ranks second-to-last in the conference in defensive turnover rate. 

Ultimately, I feel good about Young and Reese managing buckets against the Illini’s questionable, passive interior defense.

Betting on College Basketball?

Meanwhile, I don’t feel good about the Illini’s four big scorers creating individual offense against the Terps.

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That’s precisely what happened in the prior matchup. 

Reese scored nine of his 20 points on 12 post-up sets, while Young scored 28 on 11-for-20 shooting from 2-point rage.

Overall, the Terps scored 52 paint points while shooting 26 for 48 (54%) from inside the arc and dishing out 14 assists to only seven turnovers. 

Meanwhile, the Illini managed only 26 paint points and shot a miserable 15 for 42 (36%) from 2-point range.

They were miserable in ball screens (four points on 14 sets) and posted a negative assist-to-turnover ratio (eight to nine). 

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Expect more of the same on Saturday and wager accordingly. 

Illinois vs. Maryland pick

Maryland +2.5



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Maryland elections officials deal with threats of violence, turnover concerns ahead of presidential election

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Maryland elections officials deal with threats of violence, turnover concerns ahead of presidential election


BALTIMORE Since the last presidential election, Maryland has seen a concerning rise in turnover among our state’s election officials—with almost half new to their positions—according to research from the Bipartisan Policy Center. 

As of January 2024, Maryland saw turnover in 11 voting jurisdictions.

Turnover is also on the rise nationally according to a CBS News investigation. 

What is driving the exodus? Some blame an increasingly hostile environment, fueled by citizens who do not trust the election system. 

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Documenting Threats in Harford County

Stephanie Taylor oversees elections in Harford County.

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“Love and Not So Much Love Notes”   

Mike Hellgren


She gets a lot of correspondence from the public—and keeps all of it in a binder with the title “Love and Not So Much Love Notes” on the cover.

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“These are our nice letters, and these are our nasty letters,” she showed WJZ Investigator Mike Hellgren

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Taylor with the book

Mike Hellgren


“There’s a lot of cursing. We’ve been called Nazis,” Taylor said. “We’ve been accused of cheating, changing voter turnouts, changing the results, which is very hurtful to us because we take great pride in our job that we do here.”

Hellgren asked her what that says about where Maryland stands right now. “There are a lot of angry people who do not trust the election process. I don’t know how to get through to them,” she said.

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Since the 2020 presidential election, Maryland has seen a 46 percent turnover rate among election officials. That is larger than the 36 percent national average.

“Have you had people leave because they could not take it?” Hellgren asked. 

“Yes,” Taylor admitted. “One person who was with the office for quite a long time. She had a key role in this office. Just the stress of it—she’s just like, ‘I’m done.’ And she quit.”

To make sure her staff members feel safe, Taylor has used grants to dramatically increase security at their office and warehouse in Forest Hill.

“This is one thing everyone in the office said we needed to enclose this after all the craziness started happening after January 6th,” Taylor said as she showed WJZ the public entrance area. 

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Taylor and Hellgren in office vestibule 

Mike Hellgren


She had bullet- and bomb-deflecting glass installed that will not shatter.

“We have changed the whole look of this office. We used to have an open reception area. We put walls up. We put glass in. It is not bulletproof glass, but it will change the direction of a bullet. We have coating on our windows that if someone were to put a bomb outside, this coating would catch it and it would just drop it so there wouldn’t be shards,” Taylor said.

There are also new cameras and stronger locks. 

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“Now, if it’s unlocked, it has a high-powered magnet and you have to be buzzed in,” she said at a secondary door to the board room. 

“We have our own FBI contact. I never in my life thought I would say that I have my own FBI contact. It just never even crossed my mind,” Taylor told Hellgren. 

“They were being disruptive, calling us names. We got a threat in one of the meetings that we got on tape. I did turn that in to the FBI and the sheriff’s department. It’s just the way the world looks at us now. It’s so different,” she said.

New Law Means Stiffer Penalties 

Earlier this year in Annapolis, the General Assembly took action to protect poll workers, election judges and their families from threats which have been on the rise across the country. 

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Citing the turnover, Governor Wes Moore’s administration advocated for and and won changes to the law. There are now tougher penalties against those convicted of threatening election workers, with fines increasing from $1,000 to $2,500

“It is becoming harder to recruit election judges. It is becoming harder to recruit elections administrators, and we need to respond to that,” said Eric Luedtke, the governor’s chief legislative officer at a hearing on February 21st. 

Violators could also get up to three years behind bars.

During that hearing about the legislation, Baltimore County’s elections director revealed she, too, had been threatened. 

“After receiving a threat firsthand, I was overwhelmingly thankful for the protection from my county, the FBI and homeland security,” Ruie Lavoie, the director of Baltimore County elections, told lawmakers. 

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WJZ asked Maryland’s state elections administrator Jared DeMarinis whether the new law does enough to deter people from threatening election workers. “I hope so. I think time will tell on that, but I think you have to have the first step and I think this was a great first step,” DeMarinis said. 

State Safeguards the Vote

DeMarinis took over as elections administrator from Linda Lamone last year.

She had served in that position for more than 35 years, but DeMarinis also worked in that office for almost two decades. 

“Yes, I’m a new person, but it’s not like I don’t know the electoral process,” DeMarinis told Hellgren.

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On the threats, DeMarinis acknowledged “those types of incidents really shake you to the core.”

He said, “This is really trying to take it to a new level where you’re trying to inflict bodily harm or even death upon you know a person just doing their job and making sure that our democracy works.”

He made it a priority to stamp out misinformation and added a “rumor control” section to the state elections website.

“Before, there was a trust. There was an understanding in the process here, and there’s a segment of the population now that just doesn’t believe in any of that,” DeMarinis said.

DeMarinis is also pushing young people to get involved as election judges and poll workers.

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He is aware that when elections officials leave, so does their experience and knowledge of the process. That is why he is partnering more experienced elections officials with newer ones to lessen the impact of any turnover.

And DeMarinis believes that turnover is not always a negative. 

“Turnover brings new blood, new ideas, new points of view to the process. It helps streamline things. But yes, there is a concern about losing a lot of institutional knowledge,” he said. 

A Veteran in Charge in Baltimore City

“I just don’t want to believe that people are not interested in an important process as this,” said Armstead Jones, Baltimore City’s election director 

Baltimore has one of the longest-serving elections directors in the state.

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Armstead Jones said in the city, the problem is not threats, but getting enough people motivated to staff the polls.

“At one time, we’d have as many as 3,200 election judges working Election Day and those numbers have dropped over the years,” Jones said. “I believe in this last election, we may have had about 1,500 judges to work. Maybe 2,100 trained, 600 did not show so those numbers are getting lower each time.”

The state remains committed to smooth and transparent elections, despite the challenges. 

“Having that full confidence in the system is the underpinning of everything that we do with good, solid elections,” DeMarinis said.

Staying Despite Challenges

“I love the job. I love the people I work with,” said Taylor of her Harford County position. “If you’re in a polling location, it’s so much fun to be there and you see people coming in and taking part in democracy.”

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She told Hellgren she has no plans to leave and be part of the turnover despite uncertainty about the future. 

“Do you see it getting any better?” Hellgren asked. “I’ll let you know after this election. It depends on what happens after this election,” she said.

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Sunny, beautiful start to Maryland’s workweek

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Fall chill overnight for Maryland

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