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Illinois vs. Maryland prediction: College basketball odds, pick

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Illinois vs. Maryland prediction: College basketball odds, pick


There are two certainties in college basketball betting this year. 

First, Big Ten home teams win and cover. 

Home teams in conference play are 52-41-2 ATS, covering 56% of the time.

Since the start of last season, Big Ten home teams are 132-97-3 ATS. 

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The Big Ten has the second-highest home-winning percentage of any conference this season, with home-court advantage winning out 72% of the time. 

Second, ranked teams on the road either don’t cover or don’t win. 

Ranked squads are 81-102-2 ATS on the road this season, and those squads are 26-37-1 as a favorite. 

So, when I saw No. 14 Illinois was laying two points in College Park, Maryland, on Saturday, I had to bite. 

Illinois vs. Maryland odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Illinois -2.5 (-102) -130 o138.5 (-110)
Maryland +2.5 (-120) +108 u138.5 (-110)

(Via FanDuel)

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Illinois vs. Maryland prediction

(5:30 p.m. ET, FOX)

But as I investigated the game more, I realized the Terps match up well with the Illini. 

Maryland has won and covered four of the past five head-to-head matchups, thrice winning outright as underdogs.

That includes a matchup in Champaign earlier this season, where the Terps won by nine as nine-point ‘dogs. 

There’s one main reason for that. 

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Both squads run every opposing offense off the 3-point line.

The Illini rank sixth nationally in 3-point rate allowed, while the Terps rank 13th.

They get there in different ways – Illinois runs a drop-coverage defense while Maryland spams mainly press coverage – but it has the same effect. 

That being: Illinois vs Maryland generally devolves into an interior, 2-point shooting, post-up battle.

It’s all about paint buckets. 

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Maryland has a significant upper hand in that regard, specifically on defense. 

The Terps are devastating on the defensive end. Julian Reese is among the nation’s best post-up defenders (.52 PPP allowed, 91st percentile), leading one of the nation’s better post-up defenses (.76 PPP allowed, 84th percentile).

Maryland allows only 28 paint points per game (84th percentile), blocks five shots a night (93rd percentile), and leads the Big Ten in 2-point shooting allowed (46%). 

There’s a reason why Maryland ranks fifth nationally in defensive efficiency, and its interior wall is the main reason. 

Illinois mainly tries to create offense through isolation and transition sets, leaning heavily on Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask, with Coleman Hawkins and Quincy Gurrier getting action on the interior. 

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Unfortunately, Maryland is a rock-solid transition defense (.96 PPP allowed, 77th percentile) that’s even better defending on an island (.62 PPP allowed, 92nd percentile).

Jahmir Young, Julian Reese and Donta Scott are three of the Big Ten’s best isolation defenders.

Jahmir Young of the Maryland Terrapins handles the ball against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Getty Images

Between those three and Reese, the Terps can match up with Illinois at every position. 

Illinois will try to augment its offense with offensive rebounds and second-chance points, but that’ll be tough against a Terps defense that allows only .95 offensive rebound/second-chance PPP (93rd percentile). 

Maryland’s interior defense will stand more than firm, and we can’t say the same for Illinois. 

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The Illini allow 35 paint points per game (16th percentile), which has jumped to 38 in conference play (fifth percentile).

The Illini don’t defend the rim particularly well (8% block rate, 12th in Big Ten) and are merely average against post-up sets (.86 PPP, 49th percentile). 

The Terps funnel much of their offense through Reese in the post, but the Kevin Willard offense is mostly about Jahmir Young creating off the dribble.

And that’s huge against the Illini’s drop defense.

Drop-coverage schemes overplay ball handlers on the interior and force them toward an interior big man sagging toward the rim.

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Thus, dribble-penetrating guards must create in the middle of the floor, and Young can do that. 

In fact, the best way to beat Young and the Terps’ backcourt is to pressure them, given Maryland is the worst ball-handling team in the Big Ten.

But the drop is a passive coverage, so Illinois ranks second-to-last in the conference in defensive turnover rate. 

Ultimately, I feel good about Young and Reese managing buckets against the Illini’s questionable, passive interior defense.

Betting on College Basketball?

Meanwhile, I don’t feel good about the Illini’s four big scorers creating individual offense against the Terps.

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That’s precisely what happened in the prior matchup. 

Reese scored nine of his 20 points on 12 post-up sets, while Young scored 28 on 11-for-20 shooting from 2-point rage.

Overall, the Terps scored 52 paint points while shooting 26 for 48 (54%) from inside the arc and dishing out 14 assists to only seven turnovers. 

Meanwhile, the Illini managed only 26 paint points and shot a miserable 15 for 42 (36%) from 2-point range.

They were miserable in ball screens (four points on 14 sets) and posted a negative assist-to-turnover ratio (eight to nine). 

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Expect more of the same on Saturday and wager accordingly. 

Illinois vs. Maryland pick

Maryland +2.5



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Chance of showers on Christmas, wintry mix possible in Maryland on Friday

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Chance of showers on Christmas, wintry mix possible in Maryland on Friday


Multiple storm systems will impact the Mid-Atlantic through the holiday weekend, into next week. The WJZ First Alert Weather Team
has tagged Friday as a possible First Alert Weather Day, due to the potential for a slick wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow. 

Gloomy weather continues into Tuesday evening in Baltimore

Temperatures remain stuck in the low to mid-40s across central Maryland, greater Baltimore and the eastern shore. Morning rain and wintry mix have moved out of our area. But, clouds remain thick.

Plan on a mostly cloudy evening with a temperatures hovering in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Areas of fog may develop overnight, into early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s around sunrise on Christmas Eve morning.

Fantastic Christmas Eve weather in Maryland

Wednesday will be the nicest weather day of the week. 

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With the help of much more sunshine, temperatures will warm into the upper 40s and lower 50s in many areas. It’ll be breezy. Winds will gust 20 to 30 MPH through the afternoon. The weather looks good for holiday plans, aside from the breezy winds.

Travel weather will be great up and down the I-95 and I-70 corridors across the region through Christmas Eve afternoon. 

Damp start to Christmas Day in Baltimore

A passing storm system will send a round of showers through Maryland on Christmas morning. While mostly rain, snow and sleet may mix in early in the morning. The chance of a brief wintry mix is greatest in northeast Maryland around sunrise. No wintry accumulation is expected, with morning temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

The forecast dries out from northwest, to southeast, by mid-morning. Afternoon temperatures peak in the upper 40s and lower 50s, under a mostly cloudy sky.

Another batch of cold air will blow into Maryland Christmas night, into Friday morning ahead of the next storm system.

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Potential winter storm Friday across Maryland 

There is a chance of freezing rain, sleet and snow on Friday. Travel impacts are possible.

Colder air will be in-place across Maryland as the next storm system approaches. All wintry precipitation types are possible across our part of the state. A few wintry showers could arrive as early as Friday morning. However, a greater chance of winter weather and slick travel arrives late Friday afternoon. The wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow could continue into Friday night. 

Snow and ice may accumulate. However, it’s still early and the forecast may need to be adjusted. Check back with the WJZ First Alert Weather Team over the next few days. Friday is a possible First Alert Weather Day.  

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Maryland commission approves half of BGE’s $152.3 million funding request to support rate increase

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Maryland commission approves half of BGE’s 2.3 million funding request to support rate increase




Maryland commission approves half of BGE’s $152.3 million funding request to support rate increase – CBS Baltimore

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The Maryland Public Service Commission approved nearly half of Baltimore Gas and Electric’s (BGE) $152.3 million request for funding to support the final year of the company’s rate hike plan.

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Maryland DNR Provides Guidance Concerning Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

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Maryland DNR Provides Guidance Concerning Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza


Maryland DNR Provides Guidance Concerning Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), an airborne respiratory virus that spreads quickly among birds, is found sporadically in the state’s wild bird populations, especially waterfowl, raptors, and black vultures (pictured above). Photo by by Michael Dwyer, submitted to the 2023 Maryland DNR Photo Contest.

Early indicators suggest the coming months could be active for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in wild birds again this year. Avian influenza, often called “bird flu,” is an airborne respiratory virus that spreads quickly among birds. While once considered rare in Maryland, the virus is now being detected more commonly in the state’s wild bird populations, especially waterfowl, raptors, and black vultures. Risk to human health is considered low, but people who may handle or encounter wild birds should take common precautions to protect themselves and help limit the spread of this virus. 

Hunting wild birds, including waterfowl and geese, is safe but the Maryland Department of Natural Resources recommend some guidelines for hunters and others who encounter wild birds:

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  • Never handle wild birds that are obviously sick or found dead.
  • Wash your hands with soap and water or hand sanitizer immediately after handling game.
  • Use disposable gloves when handling game and double-bag offal and feathers.
  • Use dedicated clothing, boots, and tools for cleaning game that are not used around poultry or pet birds. Anyone preparing harvested waterfowl should cook it to 165 degrees to kill any viruses or bacteria. Hunters and other outdoors enthusiasts can check online for more information from USDA on safely processing and disposing of wild birds.

Anyone who fills birdfeeders for the winter may continue to do so, as songbirds rarely carry or spread the HPAI virus. 

Hiking, photography, and other outdoor activities in areas where wild birds congregate are safe, although as with hunting, precautions should be taken to avoid sick or dead birds. 

Anyone who sees sick or dead birds in the wild should not handle or move the birds but should first report them to the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) by calling 1-877-463-6497. DNR contracts annually with APHIS to help the state triage approximately 30,000 calls related to sick, injured, or dead wildlife. APHIS operators are available from 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. Monday through Friday, except on state holidays. Those with area codes from outside Maryland should call 410-349-8055. Voicemails will be promptly returned. 

USDA APHIS employs staff who are trained to handle and remove sick or dead wild birds while mitigating biosecurity risks and reducing potential spread of the disease to domestic poultry facilities. Key DNR staff are also trained and equipped to dispose of dead birds that may have contracted the virus and will be supplementing the disposal efforts. Reports will be triaged based on their seriousness and the two agencies will advise callers on a course of action and determine whether a direct field response is required.

More information on HPAI and how to mitigate exposure of domestic poultry to wild birds can be found on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s website.

The Maryland Department of Agriculture is encouraging poultry farm and backyard flock owners are urged to follow these guidelines to prevent the spread of HPAI:

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  • Restrict access to poultry by posting “Restricted Access” signage, securing the area with a gate, or both.
  • Take steps to ensure that contaminated materials on the ground are not transported into the poultry growing house or area.
  • Provide the following items to anyone entering or leaving any area where poultry are kept:
    • Footbaths and foot mats with disinfectant.
    • Boot washing and disinfectant station.
    • Footwear change or foot covers.
  • Cover and secure feed to prevent wild birds, rodents or other animals from accessing it.
  • Cover and properly contain carcasses, used litter, or other disease-containing organic materials to prevent wild birds, rodents or other animals from accessing them and to keep them from being blown around by wind.
  • Allow MDA to enter the premises during normal working hours to inspect your biosecurity and sanitation practices. 
  • Report any unusual domestic poultry deaths or sudden increases in very sick poultry to the MDA Animal Health Program at 410-841-5810 or after-hours to 410-841-5971. Also contact the USDA at 866-536-7593.

Dead wild birds can be reported to USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service by calling 1-877-463-6497. USDA Wildlife Services operators are available from 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. Monday through Friday, except on state holidays. Those with phone numbers outside of Maryland should call 410-349-8055. Voicemails will be promptly returned.




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