Photo:

Carlos J. Calo / Eclipse Sportswire

Lexington, Ky.

This much is as certain as anything can be in horse racing. Emerging Market is headed to Kentucky Derby 2026. As for trainer Chad Brown’s other invitations, it’s complicated.

“I’m hoping to make a decision once we get past this weekend,” Brown said Friday in a phone call from Florida to reporters at Keeneland. “I’m still talking to the respective owners and observing the horses and observing the prospective field for the Derby.”

Brown’s 3,000th win is delivered by Zulu Kingdom.

After he called Grade 2 Louisiana Derby winner Emerging Market “a definite,” Brown explained where he stands with Blue Grass (G1) runner-up Ottinho and seventh-place Wood Memorial (G2) finisher Iron Honor, both of whom have invitations awaiting RSVPs.

“I look at it two ways,” Brown said. “I don’t want to drag it on so that people that are behind these horses (in the qualifying standings) don’t have clarity if they’re going to get in. I’m not doing it for that. But at the same time, I don’t want to go back and change what I say publicly.”

Brown usually does not breeze his horses back until at least two weeks after a start. Ottinho and Iron Honor raced last Saturday. Entries for the Derby will be taken in two weeks on April 25. That puts the five-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer between a rock of patience and a hard place of urgency.

“If I take them out of contention now, but then the Derby complexion changes a bit, or we change our mind with something based on how the horses are training, then I have to undo that and put them back in,” Brown said.

Ottinho, who is owned by Three Chimneys Farm, clinched his Derby berth last Saturday. Iron Honor, who belongs to St. Elias Stable, Bill Lawrence and Glassman Racing, moved off the top of the stand-by list Friday when Todd Pletcher-trained Class President was dropped out because of bone bruising.

“I’d almost rather make somebody wait to know that they’re getting in than take it away from them when I said I wasn’t running and now I am,” Brown said. “I think that’s a worse scenario of how to handle it professionally. I’m going to give myself a little time so, when I do say something, that’s final.”

Michael McCarthy-trained Stark Contrast, a turf specialist who finished second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on the Turfway Park synthetic course, is between Ottinho and Iron Honor on the invitation list. This week McCarthy all but ruled out the Kentucky Derby.

“He may win on Saturday (May 2), but I don’t think it will be in the Kentucky Derby,” McCarthy told “At the Races” host Steve Byk on Monday. “Obviously we’ve got the American Turf (G1) right out in front of us. He is an undefeated turf runner. … Being by Caravaggio out of a Quality Road mare, we just think something like the American Turf might be in his wheelhouse.

Winless with his first nine Derby horses, Brown had this year’s early futures favorite before March 28. That was when undefeated Paladin, owned by a Coolmore-led partnership, suffered a condylar fracture in a workout at Payson Park in Florida. Brown said Friday that the two-time Grade 2-winning colt by Gun Runner is “excellent” after surgery, recovering at Ashford Stud in Versailles, Ky., and due to be shipped to Saratoga in July.

Emerging Market, who is owned by Klaravich Stables, is only 2-for-2 with his debut victory coming only two months ago at Tampa Bay Downs. If Kentucky weather cooperates, Brown said he hoped to ship the Candy Ride colt from Payson Park to Churchill Downs on or around next Sunday.

“That would give me time to work the horse a couple more times here and then head up,” he said. “He’s trained well at Payson Park all winter. We’ll just keep on this consistent surface that he’s been on and just make one surface change over at Churchill. There’s no sense in bringing him to Keeneland right now, and I’m not open to Churchill until around the 19th.”

Leonatus in 1883 is the only horse to have won the Kentucky Derby with only two previous starts in his past performance.