Kentucky
Kentucky Oaks 2026 betting guide: Picks for ‘Oaks Day’ at Churchill Downs
Forget the small talk, Churchill Downs is officially rocking as we kick off Derby weekend with the 2026 Kentucky Oaks. The Lilies for the Fillies isn’t just a tradition; it’s a high-stakes, Grade 1 showdown.
This is the premier stage for three-year-old fillies. On this Friday, May 1, the energy in Louisville is electric, and the betting windows are already seeing massive volume.
With a loaded field, strong contenders and the spotlight shining bright in Louisville, this race gives bettors one more huge chance to cash before Derby Day takes over the weekend.
2026 KENTUCKY DERBY: POST POSITION DRAW, OPENING MORNING-LINE ODDS
Let’s stop talking and get to the betting window. Here are my picks and exotics for the 2026 Kentucky Oaks.
The 2026 Kentucky Oaks post positions, scratches and morning-line odds at Churchill Downs. (Kentucky Derby via X)
2026 Kentucky Oaks Day Betting Card
- Race 8: $5 to Win on #2 French Fiction.
- Race 9: $5 to Win and Place on #8 Corporate Power ($10 total bet).
- Race 12: $5 to Win on #8 Lion Lake. $1 Exacta Box on 1,3,8 ($6 total bet).
- Race 13: $8 to Win on #9 Always a Runner. $1 Exacta Box on 1,4,9 ($6 total bet). $1 Trifecta Box on 1,4,9 ($6 total bet).
Race 8: Grade 2 Eight Belles, 4:30 p.m. ET post time
Seven-furlong dirt track for 3-year-old fillies with a $700K purse.
#2 French Fiction (6-1 on the morning-line)
I’m “buying the dip” after she finished fourth by 15 lengths in the G1 Ashland her last time out. But French Fiction is turning back after running a one-and-one-sixteenth-mile race at the Ashland.
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She went off at a shorter price in all three starts (2-0-0) and her two wins at six furlongs had 81 and 84 speed figures. That said, I like the price and French Fiction at a shorter distance.
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Race 9: Grade 2 Alysheba Belles, 5:12 p.m. ET post time
One-and-one-sixteenth-mile dirt track for four-year-olds and upward with a $750K purse.
#8 Corporate Power
Finished second his last time out in the Grade 2 New Orleans, but his 106 speed figure is the second-fastest in this race. Mounted by Jose Ortiz, “who was the hottest rider at CD [Churchill Downs] to begin this meet,” per the Daily Racing Form.
Corporate Power’s sire (Curlin) and dam (Road To Victory) both won graded stakes races on the Churchill Downs dirt. He is one of two closers in a race and could capitalize on a pace melt if the early speed horses burn out down the stretch.
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Race 12: Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes, 7:40 p.m. ET post time
One-and-one-eighth-mile turf track for 3-year-old fillies with a $600K purse.
#1 Storm’s Wake (6-1)
She beat out two rivals in this field to win the Grade 2 Appalachian her last time out. Her 89 speed figure is the fastest in this race and she has won her only race at the Churchill Downs turn. Storm’s Wake is a horse for the course, winning her only race at Churchill last summer.
Horses run on the turf during race seven on ‘Thurby’ day at Churchill Downs in Louisville during 2026 Kentucky Derby week. (Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
#8 Lion Lake (8-1)
She’s run faster in all six races (2-1-2). Lion Lake’s 88 speed figure in a blanket-finish third in the Grade 2 Appalachian her last time out is tied for the second-fastest figure in this race. Before that, she won the Grade 3 Here Comes The Bride at Gulfstream in February.
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Race 13: Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, 8:40 p.m. ET post time
One-and-one-eighth-mile dirt track for 3-year-old fillies with a $1.5 million purse.
#1 Explora (6-1)
This filly has finished first or second in her seven career starts. There is a lot of speed in this race, but Explora has the fastest “early speed”. Drawing the rail in the Oaks could help control the pace and get out to an early lead.
Explora’s jockey, Flavien Prat, is one of the best in the world, and she posted a career-best 88 speed figure in her win at the Grade 3 Honeybee her last time out. I like the #9 to eventually run her down, but I’m using Explora in my exotics and multi-race wagers.
#4 Counting Stars (8-1)
She might not be a popular bet because her rivals have better connections and jockeys. But Counting Stars has “tactical speed,” meaning there isn’t much of a difference between her early and late speeds, so she could win the Oaks regardless of the pace (theoretically).
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Her 92 speed figure in a win at the Grade 2 Fantasy her last time out is the fastest speed in this field. Counting Stars has gone off as the favorite in three of her last four starts and outran her 11-1 odds in a second in the Grade 3 Honeybee. She won in her only visit to Churchill Downs.
#9 Always a Runner (10-1)
Experience, or lack thereof, is Always a Runner’s biggest question mark. Otherwise, she has the talent to win the Oaks. She ran an 89 speed figure in a win at the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct her last time out, which is the fourth-fastest race from any horse in this field.
Always A Runner preps for the 2026 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs in Louisville. She is trained by Chad Brown and jockey Dylan Davis is slated to ride her. (Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Plus, we know she can handle the distance, as the Gazelle was also one-and-one-eighth miles. Lastly, Always a Runner has a better closing kick than any of her rivals in the Oaks, and if there is a “pace melt,” I like her chances of running past the field on the home stretch.
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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.
Kentucky
A Kentucky big man is predicted to be one of the SEC’s breakout stars this season
Mark Pope had a real surprise on his 2025-26 roster as true freshman center Malachi Moreno exceeded expectations, stepping into a starting role. Big Blue Nation didn’t expect Moreno to see the floor much once Jayden Quaintance was back on the floor, but JQ never got healthy, and Moreno took over for Brandon Garrison immediately. The freshman seven-footer averaged 7.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.5 blocks per game.
This season, many expect a massive leap for Moreno as he could take over as one of the more dominant centers in the SEC. While his name was in the NBA Draft, the stock rose quickly for Moreno, and this gives fans and the staff a ton of confidence that he is going to break out this season.
Another person who believes Moreno is going to break out this season is Jon Rothstein. He made a list of his five top breakout candidates in SEC basketball this season, and Moreno was on this list, joined by Florida’s Isaiah Brown, Alabama’s London Jemison, Tennessee’s Dewayne Brown, and lastly Patton Pinkins from Ole Miss.
I believe Moreno is going to boost his stats from year one to year two in an absolutely massive way. I predict Moreno to score in the ballpark of 13 points per game this season. I expect him to pull down about 9 boards per game. His assists will take a big leap with him running the show, and I am predicting 3.5 dimes per game. Lastly, the shot blocking will be important for Moreno, and I believe he will average about 2.2 blocks per game.
If Moreno is able to put up numbers close to that this year as a sophomore, he is going to, without question, turn himself into a first-round draft pick, which Coach Pope predicted. The big thing for Moreno will be getting more physical down low. At times last season, teams would have a big who played a little bit more physical than Moreno, and he didn’t do well.
If Moreno can get mean down low, he is going to put up some eye-popping numbers this season in Lexington. I believe Moreno will finish this college basketball season as a top ten center in all of college basketball. It is going to be an absolute delight to watch Moreno run the show on offense this season for Pope and the Wildcats.
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Kentucky
Kentucky Adds Three More International Swimmers to Women’s 2026 Recruiting Class
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The University of Kentucky has added three more international swimmers to its 2026 women’s recruiting class: Valeria Tarin of Mexico, Gabrielle Idle-Beavers of England and Yasmin Silva of Peru.
Tarin currently trains with Desert Dragons in Chihuahua, where she excels at the shorter distances of free, back and fly. She competed at the 2025 World Junior Championships (LCM), racing the 50 free (26.80), 50 back (31.12) and 100 back (1:07.62). A four-time junior national champion, Tarin has also qualified for the Pan Pacific Junior Championships and was a top three finisher in multiple events at the Mexican National Championships.
Tarin posted a series of strong performances at the 2026 Arena Elite Championships (LCM) in April, logging lifetime bests in three events. She won the 100 back (1:05.33 – PB) and 50 fly (28.77 – SB) and placed 3rd in the 50 free (26.37 – PB), 6th in the 100 free (57.85 – PB) and 10th in the 50 back (30.97 – SB).
Best Times LCM (SCY Conversion)
- 50 free – 26.37 (23.03)
- 100 free – 57.85 (50.67)
- 100 back – 1:05.33 (57.77)
- 50 fly – 28.30 (24.86)
Idle-Beavers will head to Kentucky from England, where she represents Mount Kelly Swimming and primarily specializes in breast and IM. She most recently competed at the AP Race International Meet (LCM) in April, which saw her contest the 50 breast (31.84) and 100 breast (1:08.69 – PB).
At the 2026 Sheffield Premier Open Meet (LCM) in March, Idle-Beavers clocked a handful of personal best performances. She raced the 50 free (26.49 – PB), 100 free (58.05), 50 back (30.89 – PB), 50 breast (31.60 – PB), 100 breast (1:09.67) and 200 IM (2:22.21). Earlier in the season, she set a personal best time of 2:20.72 in the 200 IM at the Arena Lisbon International Meeting.
Best Times LCM (SCY Conversion)
- 50 breast – 31.60 (27.56)
- 100 breast – 1:08.69 (1:00.08)
- 200 IM – 2:20.72 (2:03.89)
Another 2025 World Junior Championships qualifier, Silva represents the Peruvian Swimming Federation and swims for Streamline Club in Trujillo, primarily specializing in fly and IM. She recently competed in the 2026 Mare Nostrum Swim Tour (LCM), which was highlighted by a lifetime best performance in the 200 fly (2:11.86) at the stop in Canet-en-Roussillon.
At the 2025 National Senior Championship (LCM) in December, Silva posted a series of strong performances. She won the 100 fly (1:03.26), 200 fly (2:20.15) and 400 IM (5:09.51 – SB) and took 2nd in the 400 free (4:38.04 – PB) and 200 back (2:30.50), 3rd in the 50 fly (28.73) and 200 IM (2:30.79), 4th in the 800 free (9:35.58 – PB) and 1500 free (18:21.92 – PB) and 5th in the 100 back (1:10.92). She also set a best time of 1:02.79 in the 100 free as the leadoff on the 400 free relay.
Best Times LCM (SCY Conversion)
- 100 fly – 1:01.47 (54.11)
- 200 fly – 2:11.86 (1:56.27)
- 200 IM – 2:26.47 (2:09.07)
- 400 IM – 5:03.97 (4:28.08)
A Division I program, Kentucky competes in the Southeastern Conference, with the women’s team finishing 12th at the 2026 SEC Championships in February. Three athletes went on to compete at the NCAA Division I Women’s Championships, but they did not score any points in the team standings.
The three international recruits will bring added depth to the Wildcats across the board, and are currently poised to be some of the team’s top competitors in their top events based on their projected converted times.
Tarin, Idle-Beavers and Silva will join Allie Joyce, Quinn Schureck and Karrington Hansen in Kentucky’s class of 2030.
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Kentucky
Former Northern Kentucky school bus driver sentenced in child pornography case
COVINGTON, Ky. (WKRC) – A Boone County man who previously worked as a Northern Kentucky school bus driver has been sentenced to 15 years in federal prison for possessing thousands of images and videos of child sexual abuse material.
Derrick Becker, 51, of Burlington, was sentenced Monday to 180 months in prison after pleading guilty to possession of child pornography, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Kentucky.
Federal investigators searched Becker’s home in July 2025 and seized electronic devices containing more than 7,000 images and more than 80 videos depicting the sexual abuse of children, including material involving bondage and bestiality.
According to prosecutors, Becker admitted he knew the material depicted minors and had been transmitted over the internet.
Becker was previously convicted in 2017 of possessing or viewing material portraying the sexual performance of a minor.
Under federal law, Becker must serve at least 85% of his sentence. He will also be supervised for 15 years after his release.
According to Boone County Schools, Becker worked as a district bus driver from 2011 to 2015, driving routes for Ryland Heights Elementary, Woodland Middle School and Scott High School before his employment ended following his 2015 arrest.
The FBI and Boone County Sheriff’s Office investigated the case.
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