Kentucky
Kentucky Derby prep trends: Lecomte has been kind to closers
When Name Me Midnight received final 12 months’s Grade 3,
$200,000 Lecomte Stakes, it was uncommon for extra causes than simply his being a protracted
shot.
At 28-1 he did pull off the largest upset in
the race since 2000. Trailing by as many as 12 1/2 lengths, Name Me Midnight additionally
made up the biggest deficit any Lecomte winner confronted since 2010.
However in so many different methods, final 12 months’s
renewal seemed acquainted.
Click on right here for Honest Grounds entries and outcomes.
It was the sixth time in eight years the
Lecomte winner had come from at the very least 4 1/2 lengths behind to win the race. Battle
of Will in 2019 and Midnight Bourbon in 2021 have been the one Lecomte victors in
that point to be on the lead or inside 1 1/2 lengths at each name.
These have been the past-performance traces for all
the Lecomte winners since 1991, in response to Equibase charts.
| 12 months | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Name Me Midnight | 8 – 12 1/2 | 8 – 10 1/2 | 7 – 8 3/4 | 4 – 3 1/2 | 1 |
| 2021 | Midnight Bourbon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2020 | Enforceable | 11 – 9 1/2 | 11 – 7 1/4 | 8 – 3 1/4 | 1 | 1 |
| 2019* | Battle of Will | 3 – 1 1/2 | 3 – 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2018* | Instilled Regard | 3 – 4 1/2 | 4 – 2 | 2 – hd | 1 | 1 |
| 2017* | Visitor Suite | 6 – 4 1/2 | 6 – 6 3/4 | 4 – 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2016* | Mo Tom | 8 – 9 1/2 | 8 – 10 1/2 | 6 – 7 | 3 – 1 1/2 | 1 |
| 2015* | Worldwide Star | 5 – 5 | 6 – 4 1/2 | 6 – 1 3/4 | 3 – 1 | 1 |
| 2014* | Vicar’s in Bother | 2 – 1 1/2 | 2 – 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2013* | Oxbow | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2012* | Mr. Bowling | 6 – 5 1/4 | 4 – 2 | 3 – 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2011** | Wilkinson | 4 – 3 | 3 – 1 | 2 – 1 | 2 – 1 | 1 |
| 2010** | Ron the Greek | 9 – 13 3/4 | 10 – 16 | 9 – 15 | 8 – 7 | 1 |
| 2009*** | Friesan Fireplace | 3 – 1 1/2 | 3 – 2 1/2 | 2 – 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2008*** | Z Fortune | 5 – 4 | 5 – 2 3/4 | 5 – 4 | 2 – 1/2 | 1 |
| 2007*** | Arduous Spun | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2006 | – No race – | |||||
| 2005*** | Storm Surge | 4 – 2 1/2 | 4 – 2 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2004*** | Fireplace Slam | 2 – 1 | 2 – 1/2 | 2 – hd | 1 | 1 |
| 2003*** | Saintly Look | 2 – hd | 2 – hd | 2 – hd | 1 | 1 |
| 2002*** | Easyfromthegitgo | 5 – 2 3/4 | 4 – 2 | 4 – 2 | 3 – 2 | 1 |
| 2001*** | Sam Lord’s Fort | 4 – 2 1/2 | 4 – 2 1/2 | 3 – 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2000*** | Noble Ruler | 10 – 12 1/4 | 9 – 6 3/4 | 9 – 8 1/2 | 6 – 3 | 1 |
| 1999*** | Some Actor | 13 – 18 1/4 | 14 – 14 1/4 | 12 – 8 | 6 – 4 | 1 |
| 1998*** | Western Metropolis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1997*** | Money Deposit | 4 – 2 1/2 | 3 – 3 1/2 | 2 – 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1996*** | Boomerang | 3 – 4 | 3 – 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1995** | Moonlight Dancer | 2 – 1/2 | 3 – 2 | 4 – 2 | 2 – 1 | 1 |
| 1994** | Fly Cry | 6 – 3 3/4 | 6 – 3 3/4 | 3 – 2 | 2 – 1/2 | 1 |
| 1993*** | Dixieland Warmth | 4 – 4 1/2 | 5 – 5 | 4 – 3 | 5 – 3 3/4 | 1 |
| 1992*** | Line within the Sand | 4 – 2 1/2 | 4 – 1 1/2 | 4 – 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 1991 | Huge Braveness | 7 – 9 3/4 | 7 – 11 | 7 – 8 | 1 | 1 |
| *1 mile 70 yds | ||||||
| **1 mile 40 yds | ||||||
| ***1 mile | ||||||
| Others 1 1/16 mi |
The asterisks point out an vital variable
that not too long ago got here into the race. For many of the final three many years the
Lecomte was contested at a mile, precisely one lap of the primary observe plus as a lot
as a 110-foot run-up. In 2010 and 2011 it was lengthened to a mile and 40 yards.
Then it went to a mile and 70 yards in 2012, a 12 months earlier than the Lecomte was made
one of many constitution preps within the Kentucky Derby qualifying-points system.
With a rising variety of horsemen saying an
outdoors draw could as properly have been a kiss of aggressive loss of life, the race was
prolonged in 2020 to its present 1 1/16 miles, the space it additionally had been run
for 44 of its first 48 years.
One factor that has not modified, although, is
the size of the homestretch on the Honest Grounds major observe. At 449 yards, it
is 38 yards longer than the one at Churchill Downs. The one longer stretch
that hosts a factors prep is the 460-yard run dwelling at Los Alamitos.
That was a roundabout manner of claiming the New
Orleans racecourse is tailor-made to closers, and the Lecomte has offered loads
of supporting proof.
As a proving floor for the classics, Honest
Grounds has had a renaissance, particularly because it lengthened its preps three
years in the past.
| 12 months | Horse | Quirin | Lecomte | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Epicenter | E/P 7 | 2nd | 2nd |
| Cyberknife | E/P 4 | sixth | 18th | |
| 2021 | Mandaloun | P 7 | third | *1st |
| Midnight Bourbon | E 8 | 1st | *fifth | |
| 2020 | Enforceable | S 0 | 1st | seventh |
| 2019 | Battle of Will | E/P 5 | 1st | seventh |
| Plus Que Parfait | E/P 2 | fifth | eighth | |
| 2018 | Instilled Regard | P 3 | 1st | 4th |
| Lone Sailor | S 3 | ninth | eighth | |
| 2017 | Untrapped | P 2 | 2nd | twelfth |
| 2016 | Destin | E/P 4 | 4th | sixth |
| Mo Tom | S 0 | 1st | eighth | |
| Tom’s Prepared | S 1 | 2nd | twelfth | |
| 2015 | Battle Story | P 1 | 2nd | sixteenth |
| 2014 | Vicar’s in Bother | E/P 5 | 1st | nineteenth |
| 2013 | Golden Soul | S 2 | 2nd | 2nd |
| Oxbow | E 4 | 1st | sixth | |
| 2012 | ||||
| 2011 | Pants On Fireplace | E/P 5 | 2nd | ninth |
| 2010 | ||||
| 2009 | Friesan Fireplace | E/P 6 | 1st | 18th |
| 2008 | Z Fortune | P 2 | 1st | tenth |
| 2007 | Arduous Spun | E 6 | 1st | 2nd |
| Teuflesberg | E 5 | third | seventeenth | |
| 2006 | – no Lecomte – | |||
| 2005 | ||||
| 2004 | ||||
| 2003 | Lone Star Sky | P 3 | seventh | fifteenth |
| 2002 | Battle Emblem | S 0 | fifth | 1st |
| It’sallinthechase | E 6 | third | sixteenth | |
| 2001 | Fifty Stars | S 0 | 4th | ninth |
| 2000 | ||||
| *Promoted | ||||
| E – Early (pacesetter) | ||||
| E/P – Early presser (stalker) | ||||
| P – Presser (mid-pack) | ||||
| S – Sustainer (nearer) |
Mandaloun got here out of his third-place end
within the 2021 Lecomte to win the Risen Star (G2) and get promoted to victory after
Medina Strike ultimately was disqualified within the Kentucky Derby.
Final 12 months Epicenter graduated from his
runner-up effort within the Lecomte to win the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby (G2)
earlier than ending second within the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. He additionally may land
the 3-year-old male championship subsequent week when the 2022 Eclipse Award winners
are introduced.
Even earlier than all that, Nation Home got here
by way of New Orleans in 2019 on his approach to a 65-1 promotion to victory within the
Kentucky Derby. That very same 12 months Battle of Will received the Lecomte and Risen Star en route
to a triumph within the Preakness.
These final 4 years, nonetheless, additionally could also be
thought-about exceptions to an even bigger pattern. For the reason that Lecomte was restricted to
3-year-olds in 1962, the one two Derby winners the race produced have been Battle
Emblem in 2002 and Mandaloun. Each belied the Lecomte pattern to favor closers.
Additional proof of the larger pattern come
from the 26 horses who ran in each the Lecomte and the Derby since 2000. Sixteen
have been both mid-pack or closing horses, in response to their Quirin Pace Factors
reported by Brisnet.
Handicappers on the lookout for closers in Saturday’s
eight-horse renewal of the Lecomte are prone to gravitate to Kentucky Jockey Membership
(G2) winner Instantaneous Espresso and perhaps to search for worth from maiden winner
Denington.
Horses seeking to buck the closing pattern begin
with doubtless pacesetter Echo Once more. Road Sense (G3) victor Two Phil’s, allowance
winners Bromley and Confidence Recreation and maiden winners Tapit’s Conquest and
Itzos may stalk the early tempo.
There may be another variable to throw in
Saturday’s combine. The Nationwide Climate Service forecast an 80 % likelihood of
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm with a excessive of 64 levels and an east wind of
15-25 mph blowing into the faces of horses within the homestretch.