The major Kentucky Derby prep races have concluded, which means the 2024 Kentucky Derby field is almost set. The top 20 horses in the point standings will get their shot at glory when fans around the world head to Churchill Downs for the first race of the Triple Crown series on Saturday, May 4. No horse has won the Triple Crown since Justify in 2018, but one of the 2024 Kentucky Derby contenders will have a chance to keep that dream alive for his trainer after the Run for the Roses. Fierceness is the 3-1 favorite in the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, while Sierra Leone is 7-2 and Catching Freedom is 8-1.

Sierra Leone has been one of the 2024 Kentucky Derby favorites for several months and cemented his place near the top of the Kentucky Derby odds 2024 with a win at the Blue Grass Stakes. Should you target any of the favorites with your 2024 Kentucky Derby bets? Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling. 

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline’s win at the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November of that year. 

Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He’s also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.

Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.

Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Demling’s surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he’s the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. Fierceness turned the heads of many horse racing fans at the Florida Derby, as he posted a stunning 110 Beyer Speed Figure for a 13.5-length win. He was already considered one of the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby 2024 after winning last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

However, Todd Pletcher’s trainee has struggled in other races, finishing seventh in the Champagne Stakes and third in the 2024 Holy Bull. Fierceness has never raced at this length before and there are questions regarding his ability to outlast a strong field. Demling says Fierceness is capable of winning on his best day, but he has not done enough to justify his short odds as the favorite. See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Demling is high on Resilience, even though he’s a 35-1 longshot. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. A 3-year old colt trained by Bill Mott, Resilience didn’t win any races during his 2-year-old season, but he has surged thus far in 2024.

He started the year by winning a maiden special weight race on New Year’s Day. He followed that up with a fourth-place finish at the Risen Star in February and a win at the Wood Memorial on April 6 that punched his ticket into the 2024 Kentucky Derby lineup. Demling says Resilience is “ready to be in the mix,” and likes him as a 2024 Kentucky Derby sleeper. See which other horses to back at SportsLine. 

How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who “keeps getting better and better.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.

2024 Kentucky Derby odds, futures