Kentucky
2024 Kentucky Derby horses, futures, odds, date: Expert who hit 10 Derby-Oaks Doubles gives out picks
There are 36 prep races for qualifying for the 2024 Kentucky Derby, and even the most ardent of horseracing fans could get overwhelmed with so much to keep track of. However, one race has historically stood above all others in producing winners at Churchill Downs, the Florida Derby. Fifteen horses have pulled off the Florida-Kentucky double, while no other prep race has seen more than 11 horses win both. So, should this year’s Florida Derby winner in Fierceness make his way into your Kentucky Derby 2024 bets?
The Todd Pletcher-trained horse is the 3-1 favorite, according to the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, just edging out Sierra Leone (7-2). Pletcher was the last trainer to pull off the Florida-Kentucky Derby back in 2017 with Always Dreaming, but Fierceness has stiff competition at Churchill Downs. The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 4, at Churchill Downs. Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline’s win at the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November of that year.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He’s also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling’s surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he’s the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. With a 110 Beyer Speed Figure en route to the win at Gulfstream Park that towers over this year’s crop of three-year-olds, it’s easy to see the potential in this Todd Pletcher-trained son of City of Light by Stay Thirsty mare Nonna Bella.
However, consistency has been an issue for this undoubtedly talented colt. After breaking his maiden in his first start at Saratoga, Fierceness finished a disappointing seventh in the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct. He followed with an unbelievable showing on his way to a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but then opened his three-year-old season with another dud, finishing third in the Holy Bull Stakes. So which Fierceness will we get at Churchill Downs? See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Resilience, even though he’s a 35-1 longshot. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. A bit of a late-bloomer who didn’t win any of his first three starts, Resilience finally broke through on New Year’s Day at Gulfstream Park. After a disappointing fourth place in his fifth career start at the Risen Star Stakes, he then solidified himself as a Kentucky Derby contender with an early April win at the Grade II Wood Memorial Stakes. That race has been very favorable to success at the Kentucky Derby as 11 horses have won both, making the Wood Memorial the second-best prep race at producing Derby winners.
Also in Resilience’s favor are his connections and his pedigree. He is trained by William Mott, who is the reigning award winner for Outstanding Trainer, and who won the 2019 Derby with Country House. Additionally, Resilience was sired by Into Mischief, who was a Grade I winner back in his day and also sired the Kentucky Derby winners in 2020 (Authentic) and 2021 (Mandaloun). So, three of the last four Derby winners have a connection to Resilience, and given his impressive final tune-up at the Wood Memorial, he’s a name to consider with 2024 Kentucky Derby bets. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who “keeps getting better and better.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2024 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
Kentucky
Where Kentucky turns following Donnie Freeman’s commitment to St. John’s
Kentucky quickly made its move on Syracuse star transfer Donnie Freeman in the portal, making immediate contact and hopping on a Zoom call before getting a visit scheduled for the following week. The Wildcats emerged as the likely landing spot, fighting off Alabama and UConn for his services — only for St. John’s and Tennessee to throw their hats into the ring and make their own late pushes going into the weekend.
There was serious optimism in Lexington that Mark Pope had batted down those Hail Mary throws by the Red Storm and Volunteers with a potential public commitment coming Sunday, only for the afternoon to turn into evening without a peep. Then came the late-night chatter that Rick Pitino had tossed another deep ball toward the end zone, an offer Freeman couldn’t refuse to ultimately land his services as the No. 19 overall player and No. 5 power forward in the On3 Industry Transfer Portal Rankings. Kentucky had its chance to keep the bidding war alive and potentially flip the momentum back, but the fat lady has officially sung.
That’s a tricky predicament for Pope and the Wildcats, who already passed on Colorado transfer and Florida State pledge Sebastian Rancik to continue their pursuit of Freeman. That came after Magoon Gwath (DePaul) and DeSean Goode (Miami (FL)), two other confirmed targets, committed elsewhere, along with the departures of Mo Dioubate (LSU) and Andrija Jelavic (Ohio State) from Pope’s second roster in Lexington.
So, uh, who is left for the Wildcats? Let’s separate the potential candidates into four categories.
“Gotta make Brad Stevens say no”
Two absolute gems remain at the position and could make all of the Pope Whiff doomers stop in their tracks: Iowa State’s Milan Momcilovic and Santa Clara’s Allen Graves. You know both names because Kentucky played each of them in the NCAA Tournament, the former knocking the Wildcats out in the Round of 32 and the latter nearly doing so with a dagger in the final seconds of regulation — only to be topped by Otega Oweh’s half-court miracle at the buzzer.
They’re ranked No. 1 and No. 3 at the position, respectively, and are obvious home-run hits if UK can make contact. The issue? Despite entering the portal, they prefer to keep their names in the draft and will likely do so with first-round guarantees. A return to college isn’t impossible for either — Graves sits at No. 32 in ESPN’s latest draft rankings while Momcilovic comes in at No. 43 — but you won’t even get a meeting without $5M as a starting point, with the bidding likely finishing at or near the $6M mark. Are you ready to back up the Brinks truck? That’s the only option if you want the prized forwards.
Trending the wrong way — quickly
Now, if you’re looking for better value, Saint Mary’s Paulius Murauskas and Iowa’s Alvaro Folgueiras are both technically available, sitting at No. 2 and 11 at the position, respectively. Kentucky has had exploratory conversations with both players — the latter was seen as a serious target this time last offseason, as well — and the talent is there. Murauskas averaged 18.4 PPG and 7.6 RPG on 48/33/84 splits with the Gaels this season and earned All-WCC honors in each of the last two years. That would do the trick. Folgueiras averaged 8.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG and 2.2 APG for the Hawkeyes, but is most famous for hitting the game-winning three to beat Florida in the NCAA Tournament. Maybe not a can’t-miss superstar, but pretty darn solid for a pivot.
But, heavy emphasis on technically available — because they both have On3 RPM picks in favor of other schools. Murauskas is projected to follow his former St. Mary’s coach, Randy Bennett, to Arizona State, while Folgueiras is expected to land at *sigh* Louisville. They haven’t made public commitments, but the clock is ticking and Pope would have to make up a lot of ground in a hurry.
Both are highly unlikely to wear the blue and white.
Realistic, but not a needle-mover
If you’re looking for somebody solid to join the fold, James Madison’s Justin McBride is the perfect candidate. Standing 6-7, 240 pounds following previous stops at Oklahoma State and Nevada, the versatile forward earned Third Team All-Sun Belt honors, averaging 15.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG and 1.5 APG on 49/40/78 splits as a junior in Harrisonburg. Before that, he averaged 7.8 PPG and 4.2 RPG as a sophomore with the Wolfpack and 2.5 PPG and 1.5 RPG as a freshman with the Cowboys.
Finding his fourth home in four years, McBride is scheduled to visit Lexington this week, he tells Jacob Polacheck of KSR+. That comes after a Zoom meeting with the staff last week.
He’s productive with experience as a journeyman, finally tapping into his potential as a former top-125 recruit out of high school after seeing his role increase as a junior. There is a lot to like there, but the idea was for the Plano, TX native to serve as a complementary plug-and-play backup, staggering minutes with the go-to starter. You absolutely take him, but with the idea that you still need much more.
Potential wildcards
No. 1 recruit Tyran Stokes is trending heavily toward Kansas — and he’s also more of a jumbo wing capable of playing 1-4 more than a true power forward — but the conversation starts there in terms of obvious names to upgrade talent on a roster desperate for upgrades. Whatever it takes if you’re Pope, no matter how unlikely.
The Wildcats have also been involved with No. 15 overall prospect Miikka Muurinen, who is undeniably talented, but there are maturity questions. North Carolina and Arkansas are among those to poke around, but there is a risk factor to keep in mind before automatically connecting those dots.
Pope went overseas to find Jelavic, so maybe that’s the path? It’s possible, but easier said than done when looking for obvious star talent. That was supposed to be the 6-11 forward, coming in with multiple years of eligibility and committing to Kentucky after a single conversation — exactly what you’d want when going down that road. The Wildcats weren’t able to see that process through and there is no guarantee the next international find won’t have similar year-one hiccups.
You also can’t rule out that another wave of portal announcements won’t come over the next 24 hours before things close tomorrow at midnight. Auburn’s Sebastian Williams-Adams is an intriguing option that popped up Monday, making himself available following a successful rookie season on the Plains. He started in 21 of 36 games for the Tigers, averaging 6.8 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists in 27.2 minutes per contest as a former four-star prospect out of high school.
You’re hoping and praying at that point that something presents itself that fits and elevates Kentucky’s ceiling in 2026-27. Odds are good — and someone will want to take the big pile of cash in Lexington — but no guarantees beyond the options already in front of us.
One thing we know for sure? Kentucky’s starting power forward will not be Donnie Freeman, and the search continues for Mark Pope.
Kentucky
Kentucky will get a visit from a forward with three-point upside
Over the weekend, it was reported that the Kentucky Wildcats and coach Mark Pope had interest in former James Madison forward Justin McBride. Now, per Jacob Polacheck of Kentucky Sports Radio, McBride will take a visit to Lexington.
The report states that McBride will visit with Kentucky on Wednesday, Apr. 22. He had previously stated that he wanted to visit, but had to clear up some transcript issues first. It appears that things are worked out there now.
McBride is a 6’8″, 230 lb forward who has versatility. He averaged 15.3 points and 5.6 rebounds last season, but also made 40% of his three-point attempts, making him the kind of stretch big Pope likes to use. He could start, or be a valuable player off the bench.
Pope needs some recruiting wins, and he needs some depth for next year’s team. Right now, there are still more questions than answers, and Big Blue Nation is getting restless. We will update this story after his visit and more news becomes available.
Kentucky
Vanderbilt baseball’s series win vs Kentucky revelatory
Entering the weekend, Vanderbilt baseball had gotten swept in its only SEC series in which it hadn’t won the first game.
So the Commodores had a tough task in a series they badly needed after dropping the opener 5-2 on a walk-off grand slam after Vanderbilt’s best healthy starter, Connor Fennell, pitched well.
But the Commodores (24-17, 9-9 SEC) rebounded to take the series with an 8-7 win in the second game and a 13-6 win in the finale April 19. They did that despite not having any pitcher go more than three innings in either game. Though the pitching was still shaky at times — they issued more free passes than strikeouts in both of the wins — they worked out of enough jams to let the offense go to work.
Here’s what we learned from the series.
Will Hampton proves an unlikely hero for the offense
Vanderbilt got strong performances from a few of its typical top performers, including Braden Holcomb (6-for-13, four doubles) and Brodie Johnston (4-for-12, two home runs, three walks). But one of the biggest hits of the series came from the unlikeliest of sources.
Logan Johnstone was held out of the finale after colliding with Mike Mancini in Game 2, and in his place coach Tim Corbin opted to go with redshirt freshman Will Hampton in left field. Hampton had recorded just six college plate appearances, all of which were in nonconference games.
But Hampton reached in all three of his plate appearances against Kentucky, first on a single, then a walk. In the sixth inning, with the score tied, he came up with the bases loaded and two outs and blasted a grand slam, giving Vanderbilt its first lead.
Tyler Baird learns the ups and downs of being a closer
Freshman Tyler Baird has been Vanderbilt’s closer for the past three weeks, recording his first save April 2 against Texas A&M. But he learned the pitfalls that can come with that role in Game 1 against Kentucky. Summoned for an eight-out save with the Commodores leading 2-1, he retired the first five batters, but loaded the bases with nobody out in the ninth. He struck out the next two batters but then gave up the walk-off grand slam.
Baird returned for Game 3, this time attempting a five-out save and coming in with runners on first and second and one out with a three-run lead in the eighth inning. He allowed both inherited runners to score, but kept the lead and then had a scoreless ninth inning after Vanderbilt scored three runs in the top of the inning.
Baird’s emergence has been key for the Commodores, and the Game 3 bounce-back was especially important.
Vanderbilt’s RPI shows improvement
On April 15, Vanderbilt was 95th in RPI, a mark that wasn’t going to cut it for NCAA Tournament selection. But with a road series win against a Kentucky team that started the week in the top 20 of RPI, the Commodores moved all the way up to 75th, according to Warren Nolan.
While Vanderbilt will need to keep moving up — a top-50 mark would be ideal — the series win did a lot. In the next two weeks, it will face two top-five RPI teams in Alabama and Texas, giving more opportunity to improve its standing.
Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on X @aria_gerson.
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