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Georgia's controversial College Football Playoff ranking a reminder that this is supposed to be hard

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Georgia's controversial College Football Playoff ranking a reminder that this is supposed to be hard


This week, the College Football Playoff selection committee deigned to suggest that the Georgia Bulldogs — who have won two of the last three national championships and began this very season as the preseason No. 1 in the AP poll — might not make the final 12-team field.

If you plugged in the teams from this week’s CFP rankings into a bracket, you’d quickly discover that No. 12 Georgia would actually be the first team out, because No. 13 Boise State would slide into the field as the 12 seed, with the fifth highest-ranked conference champion assured to make the field. Now, this week’s rankings are not the real ones. They’re made for television, and there’s so many more data points still to be collected before Selection Sunday (Dec. 8). That’s when we’ll know who is truly in and out.

But the level of scrutiny that the committee has received to date shouldn’t be surprising. Deciding between teams in the 5-12 range is much harder than simply ranking 1-4 as it has for the past decade. There are always teams with obvious flaws when you get to the bubble. This particular chaos-filled regular season only underscores that.

Still, it was jarring to see the Bulldogs as the first team out of the bracket — even though they’re fresh off an 18-point loss to Ole Miss, their second loss of the season. Carson Beck hasn’t played well in more than a month, turning the ball over more than any other quarterback in the SEC. Even the defense, a calling card of Kirby Smart teams, has gotten gashed at times this season.

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Logically, it makes sense that two-loss Georgia might miss the Playoff. Four SEC teams are in this week’s projected bracket! It’s not like the league itself is being slighted, even though fans in the southeast certainly feel a way about the Big Ten having four teams ranked in the committee’s top five. The ACC and Big 12 are both staring down the very real possibility of being one-bid leagues.

So, why the uproar about Georgia? Part of it has to do with the fact that it’s Georgia. With Nick Saban retired, Kirby Smart has assumed the mantle as the flag-bearer of the sport, his level of success and recent titles setting the new gold standard. The other part is that the ‘Dawgs have played the nation’s toughest schedule, per ESPN’s strength of schedule metrics. They have lost two games (and nearly lost to Kentucky) because they have played opponents that are harder to beat — and fans want that to offset or discount the losses.

“Their offense hasn’t been consistent — the committee discussed that,” selection committee chair Warde Manuel said. “They’ve struggled with some turnovers. The defense has been solid, although in the loss to Ole Miss, we felt that that plays a factor into with the offense struggling; their defense was on the field quite a bit.”

Manuel also pointed out that because the committee adhered to its principle of head-to-head results mattering, Georgia had to be slotted behind the two teams it had lost to (Alabama and Ole Miss). Again, this is all pretty logical.

Still, it prompted something of an existential crisis among those who root for the Bulldogs and among those who believe the SEC is the nation’s premier conference. They want to believe that a two-loss Georgia team is a lock for the CFP. They want to believe that a three-loss Georgia team can make the field, too.

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Georgia currently first out in latest CFP ranking

Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry react to the latest College Football Playoff ranking, including the Georgia Bulldogs currently sitting outside of the tournament.

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We still don’t know how conference championship games are going to affect the final bracket. CFP executive director Rich Clark and his staff have suggested that they don’t expect the selection committee to penalize the teams that lose in their conference championship games, because those teams would be playing an additional game compared to the other teams in the at-large pool that they’ll be compared to.

So, in theory, if Georgia beats Tennessee this weekend and eventually somehow ends up in Atlanta for the SEC championship game, it could suffer a third loss. But would that be viewed as a third loss? Or could the committee truly set that aside? It’s something that sounds great in theory, but I have a hard time believing the committee won’t make note of the “3” it sees in the loss column every time it looks at the Georgia team page.

And if the loser of the SEC title game isn’t penalized, then shouldn’t that mean the same for the loser of the Big 12 and ACC championship games? If Miami is comfortably in the bracket heading into the ACC title game and BYU the same heading into the Big 12 title game, why do we think losses could knock both teams out of the bracket as at-large candidates?

So much of the conversation around the CFP right now boils down to the value of brands. We’re talking about Georgia this way because it’s Georgia. We’re talking about two-loss SEC teams this way because they’re in the SEC.

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Takeaways from Georgia, Miami losses in Week 11

The Big Ten College Countdown crew reacts to some of the biggest games around college football in Week 11, including Ole Miss topping Georgia and Georgia Tech handing Miami its first loss of the season.

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If any other team had Georgia’s resume, a turnover-prone quarterback and a general downward trajectory, we would have no problem with them being on the wrong side of the bubble. If SMU’s helmets looked like Michigan’s but had the same resume — a top-20 win and a three-point loss to the nation’s No. 6 team — it seems quite that the Mustangs would be in the bracket, as we see teams like Texas, Penn State and Indiana all ranked inside the top six despite a lack of signature wins to anchor their resumes. And we still aren’t actually sure if any of those teams can weather a loss and still make the final bracket.

Ultimately, this season is about testing our patience. There’s a lot we don’t know about a new format and a process that is not at all transparent. But that’s what everyone signed up for with a 12-team bracket in the era of megaconferences. Georgia being the team that’s not in the field isn’t something any of us would have predicted back on Labor Day. But in a season filled with surprises, this is perhaps a shocker we should have seen coming.





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Georgia politicians react along party lines to Minneapolis ICE officer shooting, killing US citizen

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Georgia politicians react along party lines to Minneapolis ICE officer shooting, killing US citizen


Local groups plan to protest around downtown Atlanta Thursday evening after a Minneapolis woman was shot and killed by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent this week. Reactions from Georgia politicians on the killing have been divided.



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Stacey Abrams rules out 2026 bid for Georgia governor

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Stacey Abrams rules out 2026 bid for Georgia governor


Politics

Two-time Democratic nominee says she’ll focus on fight against ‘authoritarianism’ instead.

Former gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams speaks at the Georgia State University Convocation Center in Atlanta on Tuesday, July 30, 2024, for a Kamala Harris campaign rally. (Arvin Temkar/AJC)

Stacey Abrams won’t be on the Georgia ballot in 2026.

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The two-time Democratic nominee for governor definitively ruled out another run for Georgia’s top job this year, saying Thursday she’ll instead continue her work fighting what she sees as the nation’s lurch toward authoritarianism under President Donald Trump.

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Georgia Gubernatorial Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams and Republican candidate Brian Kemp greet each other before a live taping of the 2018 Gubernatorial debate for the Atlanta Press Club at the Georgia Public Broadcasting studio in Atlanta, Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2018. (Alyssa Pointer/AJC)

Georgia Gubernatorial Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams and Republican candidate Brian Kemp greet each other before a live taping of the 2018 Gubernatorial debate for the Atlanta Press Club at the Georgia Public Broadcasting studio in Atlanta, Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2018. (Alyssa Pointer/AJC)

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Rev. Martha Simmons wears an “election protection” badge during election day on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, as a part of the New Georgia Project’s Faith Initiative. (Christina Matacotta for the AJC)

Rev. Martha Simmons wears an “election protection” badge during election day on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, as a part of the New Georgia Project’s Faith Initiative. (Christina Matacotta for the AJC)

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Democratic candidates for governor include (top row, left to right): Keisha Lance Bottoms, Geoff Duncan, Jason Esteves. Bottom row: Derrick Jackson, Ruwa Romman and Michael Thurmond. (AJC file photos)

Democratic candidates for governor include (top row, left to right): Keisha Lance Bottoms, Geoff Duncan, Jason Esteves. Bottom row: Derrick Jackson, Ruwa Romman and Michael Thurmond. (AJC file photos)

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Greg Bluestein

Greg Bluestein is the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s chief political reporter. He is also an author, TV analyst and co-host of the Politically Georgia podcast.

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Georgia Republicans move to scrap state income tax by 2032 despite concerns

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Georgia Republicans move to scrap state income tax by 2032 despite concerns


ATLANTA — Eliminating state income taxes sounds great to many voters, but Republicans backing the push in multiple states still face questions about whether such big tax cuts can be made without raising other taxes or sharply cutting state funding for education, health care and other services.

Georgia on Wednesday became the latest state to launch a bid to abolish its personal income tax, with Republican leaders in the Senate backing a proposal to zero it out by 2032. This year, Georgia’s personal income tax is projected to collect about $16.5 billion, or 44% of the state’s general revenue.

The push is driven by politics. Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, the Republican who leads the state Senate, has made eliminating income taxes a centerpiece of his 2026 campaign for governor. State Sen. Blake Tillery, a Vidalia Republican who led a committee to abolish the tax, is among candidates to succeed Jones as lieutenant governor.

“This is the first vote that we are going to get to take to address affordability,” Tillery said.

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But it’s unclear if the proposal will pass. Georgia House Republicans may want to continue nibbling away at the tax in smaller bites, preferring a “measured” approach. Republican House Speaker Jon Burns of Newington said Wednesday that his big 2026 goal is to eliminate property taxes for homeowners, but said he’s willing to consider the Senate plan.

Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, serving his last year, has been cool to total elimination of the income tax. He declined to comment Wednesday on the Senate plan, but spokesperson Carter Chapman said Kemp wants “to continue lowering taxes and putting more money in Georgians’ pockets as he has throughout his term.”

The state’s Democratic minority opposes the move, saying it would mostly benefit high earners and the state needs money to provide services.

Georgia House Speaker Jon Burns (R-Newington) holds a pre-session press conference to discuss his priorities for the 2026 legislative session, at the State Capitol in Atlanta, Ga, Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026. Credit: AP/Matthew Pearson

Multiple GOP-led states seek tax cuts

Iowa, Kentucky, Mississippi and Missouri have all set goals to abolish the personal income tax, joining eight other states that don’t tax personal income. Eight other states besides Georgia are cutting personal income tax rates this year, according to the Tax Foundation, a Washington, D.C., group generally skeptical of higher taxes.

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“We’ve seen a lot of states cut their income tax rates in the last four or five years, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic and coming out of it,” said Aravind Boddupalli, senior researcher at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center in Washington, D.C.

Supporters say cuts help a state compete for new residents and businesses, pointing to growth in Texas and Florida, two states without personal income taxes.

“Your income tax is a tax on productivity,” said Manish Bhatt, who studies state taxes for the Tax Foundation. “If you are taxing productivity, you are potentially losing out on economic gains.”

Georgia House Speaker Jon Burns (R-Newington) holds a pre-session press...

Georgia House Speaker Jon Burns (R-Newington) holds a pre-session press conference to discuss his priorities for the 2026 legislative session, at the State Capitol in Atlanta, Ga, Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026. Credit: AP/Matthew Pearson

Front-loading cuts for lower earners

Georgia has already been cutting income taxes, taking what was once a top income tax rate of 6% and lowering it to a 5.19% flat rate. Republicans broadly support a further cut for individual and corporate taxpayers to 4.99% this year, worth an estimated $800 million in foregone tax revenue.

The Senate plan would then freeze the corporate rate and focus on individual tax cuts. It proposes in 2027 to exempt the first $50,000 of income for a single person or $100,000 for a married couple, up from $12,000 and $24,000 now.

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Faced with Democratic criticism about affordability, the big increase in exempt income is central to Republicans’ own arguments about how they can make money stretch farther. About 70% of Georgians reported less than $100,000 of taxable income in 2024, according to state figures.

“It is a plan that gives benefits first to hardworking families,” Tillery said.

The initial rate cut, plus the exemption proposal, would lower Georgia revenue by $3.8 billion in its 2027 budget year. Tillery says the state could pay by using surplus tax revenue and shifting back to paying for capital expenditures through borrowing instead of cash. But those moves probably wouldn’t cover the foregone revenue even in the first year, much less $13 billion more in cuts to get to zero.

Tillery said revenue should be bolstered by trimming business income and sales tax breaks, saying legislators should reduce “corporate welfare.” But lawmakers and Kemp have balked at curtailing those measures in recent years.

Some tax cuts backfired

Tax cuts haven’t always been a political bonanza. In Kansas, after Republicans under Gov. Sam Brownback cut income taxes steeply more than a decade ago, voters revolted at budget cuts and lawmakers imposed multiple tax increases to cover persistent budget shortfalls, including restoring some income tax cuts. Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly won her first term in 2018 by framing the race as a referendum on Brownback’s policies.

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“State income taxes are only bad if you fundamentally don’t believe that the services, the public investments that state governments provide, are worth anything,” said Matt Gardner, a senior fellow with the left-leaning Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy .

In Missouri, Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe and GOP legislative leaders have made phasing out the state’s income tax a top priority for the session starting Wednesday. They’re looking to expand sales taxes to services which currently are untaxed to help offset lost revenue.

“We want to do this in a smart, efficient way that’s not going to have the state go off some sort of fiscal cliff,” Missouri House Majority Leader Alex Riley told The Associated Press on Tuesday.

But expanding sales taxes could fall more heavily on poorer taxpayers. The liberal-leaning Georgia Budget and Policy Institute estimated that if Georgia doesn’t expand its sales tax, the combined state and local sales tax rate would have to rise sharply from the current 7.42% to recover revenue losses.

All that leads to questions about income-tax elimination plans, even from Republicans. Burns, the Georgia House speaker, said he’s “open” to any plan that benefits Georgians.

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“But we’ve got to have the details, and it has to work,” Burns said. “We need to make sure we can continue to do vital services — health care, public safety, education, all the things we talked about.”



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