SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – The tropical wave we have been telling you about for the past few days is still just that a tropical wave or line of low pressure. Although storms are starting to fire up around this system there is no sign of a closed low at this time. The system has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm late this weekend or early next week. Since the system is not really organizing that quickly it looks like the wave will get into the Gulf of Mexico instead of moving north along Florida’s east coast like the EURO has been suggesting over the past few days.

The EURO along with the American forecast model now shows the tropical wave and moisture moving into the E. Gulf of Mexico late weekend and then possibly developing in the E. Gulf of Mexico. Since the area is slow in developing it now looks more and more likely that it will bring us the potential of some heavy rain late Sunday through early next week. It is still too early to say what we will be dealing with but some heavy rain at times is a real possibility later this weekend and possible stretching into mid week next week.

Nothing to be too concerned about right now but it does need to be monitored closely over the next several days. Right now it looks like it wouldn’t be a strong tropical cyclone if it were to develop but I must remind you that intensity forecasting of any system is difficult especially with a system that hasn’t even formed a center of low pressure at the time of the writing. Water temperatures are very warm now in the Gulf and over the SE Atlantic. It will be battling some wind shear but conditions could become conducive for some more development once in the eastern Gulf. The models will be changing quite a bit so don’t focus just on where the center is projected to be in several days from now.

What you should be doing now is going over your hurricane plan and checking your hurricane supply kit. Even if this system doesn’t impact our weather we still have a long way to go with the peak hurricane months ahead of us. Also know your evacuation level, is it A,B,C,D or F. Evacuation zones are designated from A to F. Generally, Zone A is most vulnerable and most likely to be evacuated first, and Zone F is most likely to be evacuated last.

The area in which the system may develop into a tropical cyclone has shifted to the left or into the Gulf of Mexico.

Our weather for Thursday will be like it was today with a few scattered storms during the afternoon and evening otherwise look for mostly sunny skies in the morning followed by partly cloudy skies in the afternoon.

The weekend weather forecast is going to change based on the future track of this tropical disturbance. We will see our rain chances increasing as the tropical wave or whatever develops moves near or over Florida.

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