Hurricane Milton is expected to sweep past Mexico’s Yucatán peninsula, bringing sustained winds of nearly 155 mph (250km/h), as the category 4 storm heads towards Florida’s dangerously exposed Tampa Bay.

The storm’s trajectory suggested it would pass the Mexican city of Mérida, home to 1.2 million people, in the early hours of Tuesday morning before swerving north towards the US. Mexican officials have been bussing people out of low-lying coastal areas.

Milton is projected to hit the south-west coast of Florida by Wednesday evening local time, the US National Weather Service said in its latest update, and could cause destruction in areas already reeling from Hurricane Helene’s devastation nearly two weeks ago.

Almost all of Florida’s west coast was under a hurricane warning, with more than a million people told to evacuate, fleeing potentially catastrophic damage and power outages that could last days. With one day left for people to leave, local officials raised concerns about traffic jams and long queues at fuel stations.

US forecasters and officials fear Milton could make landfall in the Tampa Bay region, home to more than 3 million people. Tampa has not had a direct hit by a major hurricane since 1921 and could see waters rise by 15ft (4.5 metres).

Hurricane damage modellers have for years warned that the Tampa Bay area is particularly vulnerable to rising seas caused by storm surges, owing to its wide and shallow seabed, which can push water upwards.

The mayor of Tampa, which is low-lying and has a population of 3.3 million, issued a stark warning to residents as Hurricane Milton dashed across the Gulf of Mexico.

“If you choose to stay … you are going to die,” said the mayor, Jane Castor.

Castor delivered the blunt assessment to CNN on Monday while also describing Milton as a “literally catastrophic” hurricane projected to push up to 15ft of Gulf water inland – an amount that officials say is deadly.

Hurricane Helene, which made landfall in late September, caused more than 200 deaths and catastrophic damage stretching from Florida to the Appalachian mountains. There are fears that mounds of building rubble left in Helene’s wake could turn into dangerous debris if caught up in Milton’s floods and winds.

The National Weather Service downgraded Milton early on Tuesday to a category 4 hurricane but forecasters said it still posed an extremely serious threat.

“While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida,” the agency said.

The slight weakening from category 5 status attained Monday occurred after Milton’s barometic pressure rose slightly to 924m from 879m. That happened as Milton appeared to be undergoing an eye wall replacement, which can briefly raise barometric pressure and reduce its intensity.

However, the phenomenon tends to make a hurricane wider, increasing its windfield. Projections expect the hurricane to restrengthen to a category 5 then weaken as it approaches Florida, though the storm’s effects are still going to be potent.

Milton is due to become the 10th major hurricane – category 3 or higher – to make landfall along the US’s Gulf coast since 2017, gaining power from the warm seas in the gulf. Milton was the third fastest-intensifying storm on record in the Atlantic Ocean, the agency said.

Weather and climate experts attribute such a high rate of powerful, destructive storms to the climate crisis, spurred by the burning of fossil fuels.

Before Milton’s arrival, the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, declared a state of emergency for 51 of its 67 counties. “What you don’t want to do is stay in an area where you have 10, 15ft of storm surge,” he told Fox News on Monday.

DeSantis also told Floridians to make sure they had a week’s food and water and were braced for more evacuation orders.

The governor is pro-fossil fuels and has criticised climate action as being led by “radical green zealots”.

Reuters and the Associated Press contributed to this report

Hurricane Milton has “explosively intensified” in the southern Gulf of Mexico as it continues on its path towards Florida. Milton underwent rapid intensification, from a tropical storm on Sunday morning into a strong Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours.  

Within each public advisory that the National Hurricane Center releases, adjustments to the track of this storm system are also adjusted. The forecast track with Milton has its sights set on the western coast of Florida, but the position of the center of the storm, or the “eye,” can determine how catastrophic the impacts are on the Tampa Bay area. 

As Milton intensified into a major hurricane with wind speeds upwards of 180 mph, the strength of the system increased the severity of the storm surge forecast to all coastal areas, including the Gulf Coast of Florida. The eastern side of the eye is considered the “dirty side” of the storm, which is where the winds tend to be the strongest. As the forecast track shifts northward, the dirty side then falls over Tampa Bay. This, in turn, creates a more severe hazard of storm surge in that confined area.  

In addition, the waters on the Gulf side of Florida are much more shallow than on the Atlantic side, which can make storm surge even more impactful to communities along the Gulf. 

The National Hurricane Center has increased the peak storm surge forecast from 8-12 feet to 10-15 feet of inundation for the area from Anclote River to Tampa Bay. This increased severity is directly in response to the strength of the storm as its maximum sustained wind speed increased.  

“The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves,” the NHC said in a Monday afternoon advisory. “Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.”  

In another advisory Monday evening, NHC stated, “While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.”  

All coastal residents and visitors are being urged to heed local officials’ evacuation orders that are in place. 

Topline

Hurricane Milton intensified into a Category 5 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico late Monday morning as it barreled toward the Florida Gulf coast, less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene killed at least 20 people in Florida before causing devastating flooding across parts of the southeastern U.S.

Key Facts

Get Forbes Breaking News Text Alerts: We’re launching text message alerts so you’ll always know the biggest stories shaping the day’s headlines. Text “Alerts” to (201) 335-0739 or sign up here.

Big Number

15 million. That’s how many people are under flood watches in Florida, and 11 million are at risk for tropical tornadoes Tuesday and Wednesday.

Where Have Evacuations Been Ordered?

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Saturday declared a state of emergency for 35 counties, including all of the Tampa Bay area and on said Sunday evening a “flurry” of evacuation orders would be issued over the next 24 hours. According to the Associated Press, Milton could trigger the biggest spate of evacuation orders in the state since 2017’s Hurricane Irma—where 7 million people were urged to leave their homes. Hillsborough County, home to Tampa, ordered evacuations for areas near Tampa Bay and for all mobile and manufactured homes by Tuesday night. Lee County, home to Fort Meyers, issued a mandary evacuation order for the island of Fort Myers Beach and further orders could still come.

Is Hurricane Milton Impact

Tampa International Airport will close at 9 a.m. Tuesday and plans to reopen “as soon as it is safe” later this week. Major U.S. airlines, including American, Delta, Southwest, United and JetBlue, are issuing travel waivers that will allow passengers flying through impacted airports to rebook without paying far differences. American Airlines’ travel alert covers 12 airports in Florida, Delta’s covers nine and Frontier covers eight. United Airlines’ advisory covers travel to and from only five airports—Key West, Orlando, Fort Myers, Sarasota/Bradenton and Tampa.

Could Hurricane Milton Become A Category 6 Hurricane?

There is no such thing as a Category 6 hurricane. The National Hurricane Center uses the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale to classify storms, which ranks only up to a Category 5 and defines those storms as having sustained winds at or greater than 157 mph. Earlier this year, researchers with the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and Space Science and Engineering Center argued for adding a sixth storm category as climate change continues to intensify weather events. Under their proposal, Category 5 hurricanes would be redefined to encompass storms with sustained wind speeds between 157 and 192 mph and a new Category 6 would describe storms with wind speeds above 192 mph.

Key Background

Milton is expected to arrive less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene, a major Category 4 storm, hit Florida on Sept. 26. Helene was the hardest hit for the Tampa Bay area from a hurricane in 103 years, according to the Associated Press. Despite staying offshore, Helene inundated parts of the area with several feet of storm surge. At least 20 people died in Florida from the storm, which then traveled 500 miles across the Southeastern U.S. and caused heavy flooding in the Carolinas, Georgia, Virginia and Tennessee. At least 230 people across six states died as a result of the hurricane, which was the deadliest to hit the continental U.S. since Katrina in 2005. Helene made landfall near Perry, Florida, approximately 160 miles north of Tampa, with winds of 140 mph before it was downgraded to a tropical storm as it moved northward.

Surprising Fact

Milton will be the fifth hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this year, as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts 2024 will be one of the busiest hurricane seasons on record, estimating 8 to 13 hurricanes and between 4 and 7 major hurricanes.

Mary Whitfill Roeloffs contributed to this report.

Further Reading

Hurricane Milton: Airlines Issue Alerts For Category-5 Storm (Forbes)

Marjorie Taylor Greene Appears To Claim Democrats ‘Control The Weather’—After Hurricane Helene Strikes Southeast (Forbes)

Trump FEMA Claim Debunked: Agency Not Running Out Of Money Because Of Migrants (Forbes)

Trump And Allies Claim Biden/Harris Response To Hurricane Helene Falls Short (Forbes)