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Florida’s mortgage market is in trouble

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Florida’s mortgage market is in trouble


Florida is one of the least affordable states in the country to buy a home, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, as high mortgage rates keep buyers out of the market.

Why It Matters

With its sunny weather, relaxed lifestyle, and relatively cheaper cost of living and housing, Florida attracted a flow of new residents during the COVID-19 pandemic. But those markets that boomed during the health emergency have experienced a rapid cooldown over the past year as inbound migration weakened and new inventory poured into the market.

The affordability strain caused by high mortgage rates and historically elevated prices, combined with the growth in inventory and skyrocketing homeowners insurance premiums, is likely to cause a cooldown in demand and a drop in prices across Florida, experts have said.

What To Know

The Mortgage Bankers Association uses the Purchase Applications Payment Index, also known as PAPI, to measure how affordable it is to buy a home in each state based on how much a mortgage plus interest on loans costs a household in relation to its income.

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In November, Florida had a PAPI of 209.9, lower only than that of Nevada (248.7), Idaho (244.2) and Arizona (220.7). The national PAPI, for comparison, was 163.3 in the same month.

While Florida has one of the least affordable mortgage payments in the nation in relation to residents’ wages, the interest rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the state are slightly lower than at the national level, according to Bankrate data. As of Tuesday, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 7.09 percent. In Florida, it was 7.06 percent.

The cost of mortgages in Florida—one of the highest in the nation compared to residents’ income—is adding further strain to housing affordability in the state.

Photo Illustration by Newsweek/Getty Images

How Are High Mortgage Rates Affecting the Florida Market

According to Nick Gerli, a real estate analyst and the CEO of Reventure App, the lack of affordability in Florida explains “the big market slowdown” in the state.

“Home sales are down 40 percent from their pandemic peak. Inventory is at the highest level in nearly 10 years. And now prices are starting to drop. But not fast enough for homebuyers,” he wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Monday.

“Florida’s mortgage payment as a % of income is one of the highest in America at 40 percent,” Gerli wrote. “For the average buyer, they need to spend around $30,000 on mtg, tax, insurance. Median household income across the state is $75,000.”

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What People Are Saying

Nick Gerli, the CEO of Reventure App, wrote on X: “Today’s 40 percent mtg payment/income ratio is unprecedented. The only other time it was close was the mid-2000s housing bubble. Before the big crash.”

The Senate Budget Committee wrote in a report published last month: “In certain communities, sky-high insurance premiums and unavailable coverage will make it nearly impossible for anyone who cannot buy a house in cash to get a mortgage and buy a home. Property values will eventually fall—just like in 2008—sending household wealth tumbling. The United States could be looking at a systemic shock to the economy similar to the financial crisis of 2008—if not greater.”

Sean O’Dowd, a real estate investor in Chicago, previously told Newsweek: “There’s not a single lender out there that I’m aware of that will give you a mortgage without proof of insurance. The problem is, if you have an insurance payment that’s just as much as the principal and interest payment for the mortgage, if you’ve got an insurance payment that’s five hundred bucks a month, you get to a situation where a homebuyer—especially a first-time homebuyer that doesn’t have a lot of capital to put down for the down payment—has such a weedy monthly payment with this huge insurance premium that they cannot afford to buy a house.”

What Happens Next

For Gerli, the combination of these factors—cooling demand, less inbound migration and growing supply—means the Florida market “is now turning.” His company is forecasting price declines across all of Florida’s housing market this year.

“These price declines will be welcome news to homebuyers, and finally start returning affordability to a housing market that sorely needs it,” he wrote.

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Other experts agree that prices will drop in parts of Florida throughout 2025. Redfin economist Chen Zhao previously told Newsweek that the best places to buy a home this year will be “markets in the Sun Belt, especially Florida and Texas,” which are “the weakest at the moment.”

Norada Real Estate Investments also identified three metropolitan areas in Florida—Gainesville, Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville and Lakeland-Winter Haven—as at “very high risk” of experiencing a downturn this year, with prices potentially dropping by as much as 15 percent.



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Florida

Gas prices rise in South Florida amid U.S. and Israel’s conflict with Iran, as the stock market also reports a dip

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Gas prices rise in South Florida amid U.S. and Israel’s conflict with Iran, as the stock market also reports a dip



Four days into the Iranian conflict, gas prices are rising at many stations in South Florida.

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“I’ve traveled all over the United States,” says Stacey Williams. CBS Miami spoke to him as he was gassing up on the turnpike. He paid $66 for 20 gallons of diesel to fill his pickup truck. Williams has noted the fluctuations in fuel as he drives to locations for his work on turbines. He just spent three weeks at the Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant south of Miami.

“The salary we get paid per hour does not add up to what we pay for gas, housing, and food,” he says.

Mitchell Gershon is also dealing with the higher gas prices. He has to fill three vehicles constantly for his business—Thrifty Gypsy, a pop-up store at musical venues. He’s back and forth from Orlando to Miami and says fuel is costing him 20% more. When asked how he handles these fluctuations, he said, “Have a little backup cash so you are ready for it.”

The rise in oil prices contributed to a drop in the stock market on Tuesday, which means some retirement accounts dipped, too. CBS Miami talked to Chad NeSmith, director of investments at Tobias Financial Advisors in Plantation, for perspective on the drop.

“We are seeing most of the pullback today. Yesterday was a shock,” he says. He’s not expecting runaway oil prices but says investors should stay in the loop: “Pay attention to your portfolio. Stick to your goals. Have a plan because these things are completely unpredictable.”

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That unpredictability has Williams adjusting his budget. “You just cut back, cut corners, all you can do,” he says.



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Man convicted of 1991 fatal shooting of a police officer is set to be executed in Florida

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Man convicted of 1991 fatal shooting of a police officer is set to be executed in Florida


STARKE, Fla. (AP) — A man convicted of fatally shooting a police officer with his own service weapon during a traffic stop is set to be executed Tuesday evening in Florida.

Billy Leon Kearse, 53, is scheduled to receive a three-drug injection starting at 6 p.m. at Florida State Prison near Starke. Kearse was initially sentenced to death in 1991 after being convicted of first-degree murder and robbery with a firearm.

The Florida Supreme Court found that the trial court failed to give jurors certain information about aggravating circumstances and ordered a new sentencing. Kearse was resentenced to death in 1997.

Kearse awoke at 6:30 a.m. He declined a last meal and has remained compliant throughout the day, corrections spokesman Jordan Kirkland said during a news conference. Kearse met with a spiritual adviser during the day but had no other visitors.

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This is Florida’s third execution scheduled for 2026, following a record 19 executions last year. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis oversaw more executions in a single year in 2025 than any other Florida governor since the death penalty was reinstated in 1976. The highest number before then was eight executions in both 1984 and 2014, under former governors Bob Graham and Rick Scott, respectively.

According to court records, Fort Pierce Police Officer Danny Parrish pulled over Kearse for driving the wrong way on a one-way street in January 1991. When Kearse couldn’t produce a valid driver’s license, Parrish ordered Kearse out of his vehicle and attempted to handcuff him.

A struggle ensued, and Kearse grabbed Parrish’s firearm, prosecutors said. Kearse fired 14 times, striking the officer nine times in the body and four times in his body armor. A nearby taxi driver heard the shots and used Parrish’s radio to call for help.

Parrish was rushed to a nearby hospital, where he died from the gunshot wounds, officials said. Meanwhile, police used license plate information that Parrish had called in before approaching Kearse to identify the attacker’s vehicle and home address, where Kearse was arrested.

Last week, the Florida Supreme Court denied appeals filed by Kearse. His attorneys had argued that he was unconstitutionally deprived of a fair penalty phase and that his intellectual disability makes his execution unconstitutional.

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The U.S. Supreme Court rejected Kearse’s final appeals Tuesday afternoon without comment.

A total of 47 people were executed in the U.S. in 2025. Florida led the way with a flurry of death warrants signed by DeSantis, far outpacing Alabama, South Carolina and Texas which each held five executions.

Besides the two Florida executions this year, Texas and Oklahoma have each executed one person so far.

Two more Florida executions have already been scheduled for this month. Michael Lee King, 54, is scheduled to die on March 17, and the execution of James Aren Duckett, 68, is set for March 31.

All Florida executions are carried out via lethal injection using a sedative, a paralytic and a drug that stops the heart, according to the Department of Corrections.

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Man convicted of 1991 fatal shooting of police officer is set to be executed in Florida

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on

Man convicted of 1991 fatal shooting of a police officer is set to be executed in Florida


STARKE, Fla. (AP) — A man convicted of fatally shooting a police officer with his own service weapon during a traffic stop is set to be executed Tuesday evening in Florida.

Billy Leon Kearse, 53, is scheduled to receive a three-drug injection starting at 6 p.m. at Florida State Prison near Starke. Kearse was initially sentenced to death in 1991 after being convicted of first-degree murder and robbery with a firearm.

The Florida Supreme Court found that the trial court failed to give jurors certain information about aggravating circumstances and ordered a new sentencing. Kearse was resentenced to death in 1997.

This is Florida’s third execution scheduled for 2026, following a record 19 executions last year. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis oversaw more executions in a single year in 2025 than any other Florida governor since the death penalty was reinstated in 1976. The highest number before then was eight executions in both 1984 and 2014, under former governors Bob Graham and Rick Scott, respectively.

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According to court records, Fort Pierce Police Officer Danny Parrish pulled over Kearse for driving the wrong way on a one-way street in January 1991. When Kearse couldn’t produce a valid driver’s license, Parrish ordered Kearse out of his vehicle and attempted to handcuff him.

A struggle ensued, and Kearse grabbed Parrish’s firearm, prosecutors said. Kearse fired 14 times, striking the officer nine times in the body and four times in his body armor. A nearby taxi driver heard the shots and used Parrish’s radio to call for help.

Parrish was rushed to a nearby hospital, where he died from the gunshot wounds, officials said. Meanwhile, police used license plate information that Parrish had called in before approaching Kearse to identify the attacker’s vehicle and home address, where Kearse was arrested.

Last week, the Florida Supreme Court denied appeals filed by Kearse. His attorneys had argued that he was unconstitutionally deprived of a fair penalty phase and that his intellectual disability makes his execution unconstitutional.

Final appeals were pending Tuesday before the U.S. Supreme Court.

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A total of 47 people were executed in the U.S. in 2025. Florida led the way with a flurry of death warrants signed by DeSantis, far outpacing Alabama, South Carolina and Texas which each held five executions.

Besides the two Florida executions this year, Texas and Oklahoma have each executed one person so far.

Two more Florida executions have already been scheduled for this month. Michael Lee King, 54, is scheduled to die on March 17, and the execution of James Aren Duckett, 68, is set for March 31.

All Florida executions are carried out via lethal injection using a sedative, a paralytic and a drug that stops the heart, according to the Department of Corrections.

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