Tennessee has almost certainly played itself out of the College Football Playoff conversation, but it can still put itself into a decent bowl and end its season on a high note with a win here, combined with another against insurgent rival Vanderbilt.
Florida has no ability to get to a bowl at just 3-7, but can hand two of its rivals an ugly late-season loss with a good showing against the Vols this week and then against Florida State in the finale.
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1. Tennessee’s Offensive Explosiveness
Tennessee enters the matchup with the No. 2 offense in the country, led by quarterback Joey Aguilar and a host of playmakers at the skill positions.
The Volunteers average 43.4 points per game and almost 500 total yards, frequently hitting explosive plays in the passing game and mixing in a solid running attack.
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For Florida to have a chance, its defense must contain Tennessee’s high-powered offense and disrupt Aguilar’s rhythm early.
2. Florida’s Run Defense and Second-Half Play
A key storyline is Florida’s struggle against the run, giving up 470 rushing yards in its last two games, and its inability to play a full 60 minutes, particularly on offense.
Tennessee uses their run game to set up play action, and Florida’s defense must get set quickly against the Vols’ up-tempo approach.
The Gators also need to improve offensively in the second half, as scoring droughts and stalled drives have cost them winnable games.
3. Turnover Margin
Both teams have had turnover issues, but it has been particularly damaging for Florida, ranking near the bottom nationally in giveaways.
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Tennessee is opportunistic, forcing 19 turnovers this season, and the Volunteers thrive when winning the turnover battle.
Key takeaways or lost possessions could swing momentum and prove decisive in a game that is expected to be close, with simulations and expert picks predicting a one-score outcome.
Bettors predictably are siding with the Vols, but expect a much closer game.
Tennessee is a 3.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updates game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -178 and for Florida at +150 to win outright.
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Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK
Tennessee has not won a game at Florida since 2003, a streak of 10 straight losses, but if there is a year where the Gators can get got in the Swamp, this is it. Just ask USF.
Joey Aguilar leads a Vols offense that is among the most explosive and consistent in college football, but it has one major weakness, turning the ball over at the worst times. Still, the Gators are worse in that department, averaging 90th in FBS in turnover margin.
Florida has bodies on defense that can make this interesting. Consider close results against Georgia and Ole Miss, and a win against a then top-ten Texas at home.
And with nothing to lose, they could make this very close, especially against a Tennessee pass defense that is just 118th in the country.
College Football HQ picks…
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When: Sat., Nov. 22 Where: Florida
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern TV: ABC network
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams
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This Week in South Florida Full Episode: March 1, 2026
PEMBROKE PARK, Fla. — On the latest episode of “This Week in South Florida” host Janine Stanwood welcomes President and CEO of the Jewish Federation of Broward County Audra Berg, Secretary General of the Assembly of the Cuban Resistance Orlando Gutierrez-Boronat, Division Director of Flood Control and Water Supply Planning for the South Florida Water Management District Carolina Maran, State Rep. Juan Carlos Porras and State Rep. Kevin Chambliss.
The full episode can be seen at the top of this page.
Copyright 2026 by WPLG Local10.com – All rights reserved.
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Janine Stanwood
Janine Stanwood is a Emmy award-winning reporter and anchor. She joined Local 10 News in February 2004 as an assignment editor.
South Florida leaders are taking preventative measures to keep residents safe after the U.S. and Israel launched major strikes on Iran early Saturday morning.
Miami-Dade County mayor Daniella-Levine Cava issued a statement reacting to the military operation that President Trump dubbed on Truth Social as “Operation Epic Fury.”
The statement reads: “The escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran poses serious risks to regional stability and international safety.”
She goes on to say that her thoughts are “with the people of Israel and the Jewish community here in South Florida who are watching these events with worry and uncertainty.” She also says the Iranian people “deserve peace, safety, dignity, and the freedom to live without repression.”
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Of the Trump administration’s decision to launch the military operation, Levine-Cava writes: “Any military action taken without congressional authorization is a dangerous precedent, and we must learn from our nation’s past challenges. What must come next is a serious effort to restore stability and pursue diplomacy, not further violence.”
As for measures she will be taking, she says she asked her Chief of Public Safety to “ensure public safety agencies are aware and ready to activate plans in case of any disruption.”
The Miami-Dade Sheriff Rosie Cordero-Stutz also issued a statement saying that MDSO is “taking immediate security measures by increasing patrols to ensure the safety of our residents.” She said that they have increased security presence around places of worship, cultural centers, and schools.
“Our thoughts and prayers are with the servicemen and women protecting our national security interests around the globe,” Cordero-Stutz wrote.
Aventura Police have also responded to the current situation on X, saying that they are monitoring the “current situation in the Middle East with our local, state, and federal partners.”
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@aventurapoliceis monitoring the current situation in the Middle East with our local, state and federal partners. At this time there are no known or credible threats to the US or Miami-Dade County. In an abundance of caution, we have implemented a heightened security posture with directed patrols at our religious facilities and other sensitive locations throughout @cityofaventuraWe will continue to monitor and report any suspicious behavior.https://x.com/aventurapolice/status/2027787245164335222/photo/1
X/Aventura Police
They go on to say: “At this time, there are no known or credible threats to the U.S. or Miami-Dade County.” However, they note that in “an abundance of caution,” they will be increasing security in religious facilities and other locations they deem as “sensitive” throughout the city.
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The City of Miami Beach also posted its statement to X, saying it is also “closely monitoring the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.” They also note that at this time, there are no known credible threats to the city.
They write: “Out of an abundance of caution, we have increased our uniformed presence at synagogues, schools, and other key locations citywide. We remain in close coordination with our law enforcement partners and leaders within the faith-based community.”
Miami Beach Police Department Increases Patrols Ahead of Purim Amid Ongoing Middle East Conflicthttps://x.com/MiamiBeachPD/status/2027752171173773807/photo/1
X/Miami Beach Police
They also urge residents to report any “suspicious or unlawful activity” to call their non-emergency number at 305-673-7901 or, if it is an emergency, call 911.
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Other cities’ police departments, such as Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles Beach, and Hallendale Beach, posted on their social media that they will also increase security measures after the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran.
