Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency Thursday ahead of a tropical disturbance brewing in the Caribbean.

The odds of development continue to increase for the tropical disturbance, dubbed Invest 97L, as it churns closer to the US.

However, the details of its potential impacts on the US remain murky, the FOX Forecast Center said.

The system may or may not organize into a tropical depression, perhaps even a tropical storm, late in the weekend or early next week as it slides into the Gulf of Mexico. 

Where is Invest 97L?

According to the NHC, the well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Southeastern Bahamas and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea. 

“Development of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles,” NHC said in its latest outlook.

“However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.”

Interests across the Greater Antilles, Bahamas and Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system, the NHC notes.

The disturbance has low but growing odds of developing in the next two days, and now the NHC increased the odds into the “high” category for development within a week.

Florida flood threat increases

The latest model projections indicate that the storm will move in the general direction of Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, though uncertainty remains.

However, a couple of issues are consistent in the various predictions, says FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross.

“The system will drag a lot of moisture across the Florida peninsula and possibly surrounding states. Flooding rains are possible,” he said.

“(Second), the system will stall and remain near the northern half of Florida or the nearby areas for a number of days. Areas from the northern Gulf coast to the Carolinas could be affected, and a looping track where the storm impacts the same areas multiple times is not out of the question.”

Since the storm could develop quickly and close to Florida, there would be little time to prepare.

“Your prep time is going to be about 24 hours, if that,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin if the storm does develop near Florida.

“We could see this pull together when we already have rain moving on land. If this does develop, everything’s going to happen very quickly. So you need to make sure that you’re thinking about that and preparing you and your family for that potential.”

If the system strengthens into a tropical storm, it will be named Debby – the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

But named storm or not, the system is promising heavy rains for Florida, especially the Gulf Coast side.

“Florida will have heavy rain no matter what happens from this, so you need to at least be prepared for that,” Merwin said.

“So Saturday, Sunday and Monday, we know we’re going to have heavy rain across Florida, and flooding is a potential.”