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1850s plant info unearthed, helping Florida scientists untangle climate change

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1850s plant info unearthed, helping Florida scientists untangle climate change


An email from the Smithsonian Institution popped up in Theresa Crimmins’ inbox over a December break about two years ago.

Crimmins was researching phenology — the study of how plants and animals respond to seasonal changes — for a book chapter she was writing, and had requested whatever information the institution could find.

To the average person, the document the Smithsonian had unearthed would have been unremarkable.

It is a nearly 600-page, 19th-century report containing a dizzying amount of entries spanning from 1851 to 1859.

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This data was highly unusual in its detail. Most records like it are generic and only cover small regions. This one contained thousands of entries spanning over 200 species across North America, including exact blooming dates, when fruit ripened and when different animals migrated into an area.

Crimmins, the director of the USA National Phenological Network, reached out to colleagues across the country to see if they knew about it.

It was unlike any document they’d seen before. And it apparently had never been utilized.

Comparing the entries to data from today could draw an unprecedented picture of how climate change has affected when plants bloom over the last century and a half.

So Crimmins teamed with Robert Guralnick, curator of biodiversity informatics at the Florida Museum of Natural History in Gainesville, and researchers from the University of Florida to do just that. They released a study in October with their findings.

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What they found was a vastly different natural world caused by climate change — one where some species today bloom nearly a month earlier than they did in the 1850s.

When the timing of species that rely on each other shift around, it can create an unsteady ripple through ecosystems — causing a myriad of unforeseen consequences like less pollination or food scarcity.

“I think what this is helping us understand is that we are very much in a period of active change,” Crimmins said, “and really things are drifting earlier.”

The 19th century document was made under the direction of the United States Patent Office and the Smithsonian Institution, according to the Library of Congress. The document would become vital in testing a new framework for 21st century phenological predictions, according to researchers. [ The Library of Congress ]

How century old data is informing the future

The Smithsonian Institution in the 1850s recruited hundreds of citizen scientists across the nation to track when they saw plants bud or grow leaves.

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At the time, Florida had been a state for only six years.

The first Florida entry was for “Alligator,” a city that would later be renamed Lake City in Columbia County. Edward Ives recorded the first leaves growing on a “Red or Soft Maple.”

Another contributor from “Cedar Keys” in Levy County was named Augustus Steele.

Steele is likely the same man who helped found Hillsborough County years prior, according to a Tampa Tribune article.

Vital as the data would turn out to be, the document went unpublished for years because of printing scarcity during the American Civil War.

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In 2023, Crimmins was tasked with contributing a chapter for a third edition of a book on phenology. The book’s previous edition briefly mentioned a phenological data collection network in the 1850s, but it was merely a footnote.

It was an opportunity, Crimmins said, to dig deeper. Still, she was floored when she received the full document from the Smithsonian and saw its extraordinary detail.

“I was like ‘Oh my gosh, that’s cool,‘” Crimmins said. “When you have actual direct observations like that, you can directly compare them to the same species and the same events in the present day.”

The project mirrors the work of the USA National Phenological Network. The group, created in 2007, uses a formal tracking program that collects and monitors plant cycles with the help of citizen scientists across the country.

A formula for the future

Scientists don’t know precisely how climate change influences plant cycles.

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Researchers know plants are sensitive to cues, like temperatures, but why flowering and leafing varies across species remains a mystery.

As the planet warms from human-caused climate change, these cycles are further muddied.

Guralnick and other colleagues from the University of Florida, including a small group of student interns, spent weeks scraping data from the 19th-century document.

Beyond comparing dates of blooming, they wanted to create a better framework to predict how species respond to climate change.

The October study outlines a revamped formula for predicting when plants will grow buds or leaves by adding an extra variable to how phenological predictions are typically made.

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They found that with the added variable, their predictions more accurately aligned with how climate change has affected nature over the past century and a half.

With climate change, not all species are changing in the same way, or in the same direction, Crimmins said.

Are pollen allergies in Florida worsening? Is climate change to blame?

The northeastern part of the country is warming faster than the southeast, for example.

While the October study does not use Florida records (researchers used data as far south as around Georgia), there are some takeaways for the state.

Guralnick said species in the southeast are more sensitive to phenological cues, like temperature or rainfall changes.

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Had warming in the south occurred at the same rate as the north, southerly plant cycles would be more affected.

“I think it’s neat,” Guralnick said. “It talks about these different layers, and so now we can predict if more warming happens here over time, we would see stronger phenological responses to that warming.”

The image shows a Pink Azalea from the Florida Museum of Natural History. The flower was observed in the 19th century report commissioned by the Smithsonian Institute.
The image shows a Pink Azalea from the Florida Museum of Natural History. The flower was observed in the 19th century report commissioned by the Smithsonian Institute. [ The Florida Museum of Natural History ]

When a plant blooms earlier than expected, that’s where mismatches among species that depend on each other can happen, Crimmins said.

If a plant buds before a pollinator arrives, the plant may not be able to reproduce as widely, and it could cause the pollinator’s population to decline.

Crimmins said the phenology network is a way to show how the natural world is changing and document it.

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“There’s a lot people can do just with the data coming … but when we can also put into the context of what was happening a hundred or more years ago, with this particular data set, it’s even more powerful,” Crimmins said.

“It helps us to tell an even more robust story of how things have changed.”



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Florida divorcee, 48, accused of gunning down both of her ex-husbands in same-day fatal shootings

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Florida divorcee, 48, accused of gunning down both of her ex-husbands in same-day fatal shootings


A crazed Florida divorcee was thrown behind bars after allegedly gunning down both of her ex-husbands in separate broad-daylight shootings on the same day, police said.

Susan Avalon, 48, was cuffed Wednesday and slapped with murder charges after blasting one ex-hubby with bullets in Tampa, then traveling more than 50 miles to Manatee County to fatally shoot the other later that day around 3 p.m., according to Manatee County Sheriff Rick Wells.

Investigators said Avalon was embroiled in bitter custody battles with her former spouses, which they believe may have sparked the cold-blooded killings.

Susan Avalon, 48, was cuffed Wednesday and slapped with second-degree homicide. Manatee County Sheriffâs Office

“It doesn’t get anymore brazen than this,” Wells told reporters at a press conference Thursday.

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“We believe this was premeditated. She knew what she was doing, it was planned and she came here to kill her ex-husband.”

Police said the alleged murderess targeted her first husband — a 54-year-old man she divorced roughly 11 years ago — at his Manatee County home around 2:55 p.m., luring him to open his front door with stolen food from a Panera Bread before shooting him twice.

The unidentified man was rushed to a nearby hospital, but succumbed to his injuries later that day.

Surveillance footage captured Avalon walking into the nearby bread eatery and swiping food from the delivery pickup shelf without paying before heading to her ex-husband’s home, authorities said.

Investigators said Avalon was embroiled in bitter custody battles with her former spouses, which they believe may have sparked the cold-blooded killings. Manatee Sheriff/YouTube

Her live-in boyfriend allegedly told police she had recently tracked down her ex-hubby’s address.

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The ex’s reportedly had ongoing custody disputes and about $4,000 in unpaid child support, with Avalon facing a looming deadline to pay $200 or lose her driver’s license.

Investigators tracked her silver Honda Odyssey back to her Citrus County home after the shooting and found her scrubbing the minivan with bleach and rags. But when asked by police about her ex-husband, she chillingly replied, “Which one?”

“We only know of one,” Wells said.

“We start to dig into this second ex-husband that we know nothing about, and we find she was married again after the marriage to our victim, and that this ex-husband lives in Tampa.”

Wells said he is working with prosecutors to have that charge upgraded to first-degree murder and the death penalty. Manatee Sheriff/YouTube

Wells said investigators alerted Tampa authorities, who conducted a welfare check at the second husband’s Frierson Avenue home and found him dead inside with multiple gunshot wounds. The back door was also damaged, suggesting forced entry, he added.

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Officials have not disclosed the second victim’s name or age, but believe Avalon allegedly killed him first.

The alleged killer, who was previously arrested on child abuse charges in Virginia in 2004, was charged with second-degree homicide in Manatee County. Wells said he is working with prosecutors to have that charge upgraded to first-degree murder and the death penalty.

Avalon, who reportedly has five children between both slain ex-husband’s, also faced two other child abuse cases in Tampa and Pasco County that were later dropped.

She has not yet been charged in the Tampa shooting as police continue their investigation.

Avalon is currently being held at Citrus County Detention Facility in Lecanto.

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Pope names pro-immigrant pastor bishop of Florida diocese where Trump’s Mar-a-Lago is located

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Pope names pro-immigrant pastor bishop of Florida diocese where Trump’s Mar-a-Lago is located


Pope Leo XIV on Friday named the Rev. Manuel de Jesús Rodríguez, currently pastor of a predominantly Hispanic church in the Queens borough of New York City, as bishop of Palm Beach, Florida.

The diocese is home to the Mar-a-Lago estate of President Donald Trump, whose get-tough immigration policies have drawn objections from the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops.

Rodriguez has been a staunch advocate for migrants, which make up most of his 17,000 congregants at the Our Lady of Sorrows church — the largest parish in the Diocese of Brooklyn, which also oversees churches in Queens.

“I never, never, never expected anything even close to this,” Rodriguez told The Associated Press in a telephone interview Friday from Palm Beach, where he was visiting a homeless shelter.

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“I’m even a little bit scared. But I trust in God’s assistance,” he said. “One thing I can tell you is that this diocese is a diocese of hard-working priests and hard-working people, and I’m here to help.”

The Diocese of Palm Beach comprises about 260,000 Catholics and 54 parishes and missions. On its website, the diocese said that Rodriguez will be ordained and installed at a future date during a Mass at the Cathedral of St. Ignatius Loyola.

A Dominican native

Rodriguez was born in the Dominican Republic and ordained to the priesthood in 2004, in the capital, Santo Domingo. He led the Our Lady of Sorrows parish in the mostly Latino Corona neighborhood of Queens when more than 100 of its parishioners died from COVID-19.

Earlier this year, Rodriguez joined numerous faith leaders across the U.S. expressing their concern about how the immigration crackdown launched by Trump’s administration had sown fear within their migrant-friendly congregations.

In his new assignment, he will lead the diocese where Mar-a-Lago — Trump’s vast south Florida estate — is located. Trump has called the resort the “Center of the Universe.”

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“The president is doing really good things, not only for the United States, but for the world. But when it comes to the migrant, the immigration policy, we want to help,” Rodriguez said. “We want to assist the president as a church because we believe that we can do better … than the way we’re doing this right now.”

Some church leaders have condemned Trump’s immigration crackdown, saying it targets parishioners without a criminal record who are now too scared to leave home to attend Mass, buy food or seek medical care.

At many immigrant parishes, U.S.-born children have parents in the country illegally. Some of these parents have signed caregiver affidavits, which designate a legal guardian, in hopes their children stay out of foster care in case they are detained.

“When it comes to enforcing immigration laws, we shouldn’t be enforcing them by focusing on deporting 5-year-olds, 12-year-olds, 9-year-old kids, people that have never committed any crime. So, we’re here to help. We’re willing to help, and God willing, we will,” Rodriguez said.

Rodriguez said he’s in line with the Catholic Church, which staunchly defends the rights of migrants, even as it acknowledges the rights of nations to control their borders.

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“The Church’s position about this important and urgent matter has been made crystal clear by the bishops of the United States,” he said.

Immigration a challenging issue for Catholic bishops

The Vatican announced Rodríguez’s appointment the day after it shared that Pope Leo had accepted the resignation of conservative Catholic Cardinal Timothy Dolan who led the New York archdiocese and also had ties to Trump, including praying at his inauguration earlier this year and being appointed to his Religious Liberty Commission.

On some issues, such as greater inclusion for LGBTQ+ people, U.S. bishops are divided. But on immigration, even conservative Catholic leaders stand on the side of migrants.

During their general assembly earlier this year, U.S. bishops issued a rare “special message” criticizing the Trump administration’s mass deportation of migrants and their “vilification” in the current migration debate. It also lamented the fear and anxiety immigration raids have sown in communities, and the denial of pastoral care to migrants in detention centers.

U.S. Catholic bishops shuttered their longstanding refugee resettlement program after the Trump administration halted federal funding for resettlement aid.

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Rodriguez said the church will always be ready to defend the dignity of poor people and migrants, who over generations, “have contributed to the growth of the United States.”

“Migrants are not to be demonized … Good migrant people that are here to work hard for their families — they share many of our core values,” he said. “They’re to be not to be rejected and treated harshly but instead, they’re to be treated respectfully and with dignity. So, that’s the idea, and Pope Leo is backing us up in this.”

___

Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.

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Preview: December 19 at Florida | Carolina Hurricanes

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Preview: December 19 at Florida | Carolina Hurricanes


SUNRISE, Fla. – The Carolina Hurricanes will try to move their win streak to six on Friday when they take on the two-time defending Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers.

When: Friday, Dec. 19

Puck Drop: 7:00 p.m. ET

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Watch: FanDuel Sports Network South, FanDuel Sports Network App | Learn More

Listen: 99.9 The Fan, Hurricanes App

Canes Record: 22-9-2 (46 Points, 1st – Metropolitan Division)

Canes Last Game: 4-1 Win over the Nashville Predators on Wednesday, Dec. 17

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Panthers Record: 18-13-2 (38 Points, 5th – Atlantic Division)

Panthers Last Game: 3-2 Win over the Los Angeles Kings on Wednesday, Dec. 17



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