Dallas, TX
Why SoftBank is the Dallas Cowboys of AI investing
Good morning and welcome to First Trade. I’ll be hosting a discussion later today about the escalating debate around an AI bubble. First Trade contributor Will Edwards and I will break down both sides, and how to invest, depending on where you come out. Check out the livestream today at 2 p.m. ET.
Rundown
But first, a look at Japan’s tech cowboys.
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YUICHI YAMAZAKI/AFP via Getty Images
Market musings
SoftBank’s hail mary
Picture a team that, no matter what they do, commands all of the attention and ink of a captive media. They make splashy trades, blockbuster acquisitions, and have no problem cutting ties with outperformers in pursuit of greater dominance. They may not win all the time, but they’re always at the center of discussion.
No, I’m not talking about the Dallas Cowboys, although they certainly fit the bill.
I’m instead referring to the Japanese investing conglomerate SoftBank, which made typically large waves on Tuesday when it sold its entire stake in Nvidia.
The messaging on the company’s ensuing earnings call ended up boiling down to: “Don’t worry, we have a plan.” That will probably sound familiar to Cowboys fans used to owner Jerry Jones’ unapologetic approach to transactions. He is the unquestionable driving force behind all decisions, just like founder Masayoshi Son is for SoftBank.
SoftBank’s plan? To use the proceeds from the sale to continue investing heavily in OpenAI, as well as chip designer Ampere Computing, which it acquired in March.
The overarching message, at least as it relates to Ampere? We don’t need the pricey incumbent. We’ll develop our own, younger, less expensive version over time, and hopefully achieve the same result in the long run. (I can again hear all the Cowboys fans nodding knowingly.)
Of course, no comparison to the Cowboys can be complete without a discussion of actual performance.
The unequivocal high for SoftBank was its $20 million Alibaba investment, made in 2000. It paid off huge, blossoming into a $60 billion stake by 2014, a roughly 3,000-times return. The Cowboys also reached the peak of the pro football mountain in the 90s, winning the Super Bowl three times between 1992 and 1995.
But since their respective peaks, both parties lumbered along for years, unable to recapture their past greatness. Save for a COVID-era boom in 2020 and 2021, SoftBank stock has posted steady, if unremarkable gains. Its first Vision Fund ended up losing tens of billions, featuring underperforming investments like WeWork, OYO, and a $500 million robot-pizza startup called Zume.
The Cowboys had a similarly disappointing existence over the same period. They had some solid teams, but no true title contenders.
In 2025, however, SoftBank has been doing its best to buck the trend. Until a recent valuation-driven sell-off that rocked all AI- and tech-focused stocks, shares were up 195% year-to-date. It accomplished that largely by embracing the AI theme, which is what makes its offloading of Nvidia — the most successful AI stock — so risky.
It’s like the Cowboys starting a season 15-0, then trading their star player. There may be a method to the aggressive madness, and only time will tell which side of history they land on.
Ultimately, regardless of what happens, it’ll be entertaining and unique. Those qualities will always be baked into the SoftBank experience, for better or worse.
On the move
CoreWeave — a former darling that saw its stock run up as much as 359% after IPOing in March — has had a particularly tough couple of weeks in the market.
It first fell 25% in a matter of days, hit by a mass sell-off aimed at any AI-linked tech names with valuations viewed as overextended. But the most drastic blow came on Tuesday, when the company fell 16% after cutting its revenue forecast, citing the delay of a key data center.
Such is life for a high-flying AI stock these days. Investors seem to be punishing companies for lofty valuations first, and asking questions later. And when there’s an actual fundamental reason to sell, game over.
BI market mix
Culture confidential
William Edwards
Business Insider’s Will Edwards spotlights a hot trend dominating Wall Street and the finance industry.
Wall Street’s ubiquitous vests can elicit scoffs from those outside the finance world, but they are beloved within the ranks. But there’s one fashion accessory that divides opinions even within the industry: banker bags.
They’re standard, blue, cylindrical gym duffels that are customized with a firm’s branding. Banks give them out to their employees when they first start. What’s there to dislike?
A lot of it boils down to rank. More tenured bankers stick their nose up at the bags because they’ve become the unofficial signifier that one is an early-career analyst who hasn’t earned their stripes, yet is eager to show off where they work.
“If you’re fresh out of college and it’s like your first finance job, that’s fine. But if you’re over the age of 25 and you’re still rocking that thing, I don’t know,” one New York City influencer said in a video last year. “I think people think they’re a status symbol, but they’re just giving cringe.”
Or, as one of my banker friends put it: “They’re more akin to a five-year-old getting a cap when he joins his first tee-ball team than a high school senior getting a letterman jacket.”
Underneath all of the teasing, however, seems to be an appreciation for the Wall Street staple. Finance meme account Litquidity sells its own branded version of the bag. There’s also a cottage industry on eBay of people selling the bags secondhand.
Lisa McCullagh, the founder of bagmaker Scarborough and Tweed — whose first financial clients were JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs — told BI that the conversation around the bags is flattering, even if it sometimes takes a critical tone.
“They poke fun at themselves, but they do love it,” McCullagh, who gets orders for thousands of bags a year, said. “It’s like this little rite of passage into the community.”
After all, the bags are quite useful for people who often find themselves working long hours at the office. One banker told me that you typically put gym clothes into them, as well as a change of clothes for the evening hours when you want to wear a more comfortable outfit. Plus, they don’t wrinkle your clothes like putting them in a backpack would.
So, what do you guys think? I, for one, think they look pretty cool. I mean, the classic color schemes, the step and repeat branding on the handles — they’re timeless.
Joe, can we get some custom-made First Trade bags?
— Will Edwards
The First Trade team: Joe Ciolli, executive editor and anchor, in Chicago. Akin Oyedele, deputy editor, in New York. William Edwards, senior reporter, in New York. Steve Russolillo, chief news editor, in New York. Huileng Tan, senior reporter, in Singapore.
The search for the next general manager or president of basketball operations of the Dallas Mavericks has begun. They terminated Nico Harrison in November, which was about nine months too late, and gave any available candidates clear notice that they were open for business.
The plan was always to wait until after the season to start the search. While names popped up as the season reached an end, they didn’t begin turning over the staff until the Monday after the season ended. However, Dallas Mavericks fans are not going to like how the team is going about the search.
Patrick Dumont Leading Search for General Manager
NBA insider Jake Fischer reported that the Mavericks are not hiring a search firm in their hunt for a new lead executive. Instead, team governor Patrick Dumont is “acting as his own point person.”
This is an… interesting decision, to say the least. Dumont is not a basketball person whatsoever, and most organizations usually hire a search firm. The Chicago Bulls hired one as they look for their replacement for Arturas Karnisovas. Just because a firm is hired doesn’t mean a team will listen, though.
The Mavericks hired a firm in their last search for a GM. They let Donnie Nelson go in 2021 after a long tenure with the Mavs. Instead of listening to the firm, though, Mark Cuban ignored it to hire Nico Harrison, who had no previous NBA front office experience. Harrison had been an executive with Nike, which gave him connections with players like Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, and plenty of others.
For a while, that seemed to be working out okay. While he still had some questionable transactions, such as trading for Christian Wood and letting Jalen Brunson walk in free agency, they were still able to make a run to the NBA Finals in 2024. Then, he blew it all up, trading away Luka Doncic for an older and injured Anthony Davis, and the team hasn’t been the same since.
It’s imperative that the Mavericks get this hire correct. The interim Co-GM setup with Matt Riccardi and Michael Finley has performed admirably, but the 2026 NBA Draft is important for the Mavs to get right. It’s their best chance to pair Cooper Flagg with another young star, as they don’t own their first-round pick again until 2031 after this.
Hiring the right GM could help bring in more draft capital by bringing in bad contracts or flipping veterans into picks.
Dumont was able to convince Rick Welts, a Hall of Famer, to come out of retirement to be the CEO and lead the charge for a new arena. Maybe Dumont pulls another rabbit out of his hat for the GM.
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For a moment, it looked like FC Dallas was on its way to another statement win at home tonight.
Petar Musa scored two first half goals, to extend his Golden Boot leading tally to nine goals. But after Dallas grabbed control, the Galaxy found a way back before halftime with goals from Lucas Sanabria and Joseph Paintsil.
The second half brought more chances and more frustration for Dallas, which finished the night with 13 shots to LA’s nine. In the end, the point stretched Dallas’ unbeaten run to five games, though just like last week, it felt like another match where Dallas left points on the table.
Key Moments
7’ – GOAL! After a poor pass back by a LA defender, Petar Musa was free to go one-on-one with the LA goalkeeper. After a touch to get ahead of a defender, Musa slotted home his eighth goal of the season from outside the penalty box.
21’ – Offside! Joaquin Valiente sent a floating ball over the Galaxy defense, where Musa was able to get behind the defense and make an easy play for what appeared to be his second goal of the night. The play was called offside despite a fairly lengthy review period.
38’ – GOAL! This one counts! Musa gets his second of the night off a great ball from Chris Cappis. Logan Farrington picked off the ball in the midfield. He then played Cappis wide to the left of the penalty area. Cappis immediately played a ball back across the goal for Musa to slide in and finish for his ninth of the season.
43’ – Goal LA. Lucas Sanabria got the ball near the top of the penalty area. He took a couple of touches to get outside the penalty box before firing a shot that beat Michael Collodi at the near post.
45+4’ – Goal LA. Gabriel Pec got the ball near the top of the penalty area. He pulled the ball back a bit, which caught a pair of Dallas defenders. This allowed Joseph Painstil to get free behind the Dallas defense as Pec played him through inside the penalty area. Pec immediately smashed home a shot above Collodi to tie the game.
75’ – Another offside goal. This time on a corner kick for Dallas, after a scrum in the penalty box, Kaick hammered home what looked to be the go-ahead goal. But after a few seconds the flag was raised due to a deflection on Osaze Urhoghide, who was in an offside position.
Instant Reaction
Yeah, this is another disappointing result for this team. In a real way, it felt like the first half against Houston from last month. Dallas grabbed the lead, looked in control, but some defensive miscues opened the game up for the visitors to climb back.
With a double-game week coming up, this will certainly be another game where Dallas will wonder ‘what if’ more than anything else…especially when you factor in the two goals called off for offside.
About the Subs
Eric Quill went to his bench for the first time in the 66th minute, as he brought on Santiago Moreno for Logan Farrington. Quill went to his bench again 81st minute with Ran Binyamin and Nolan Norris coming on for Sebastien Ibeagha and Deedson. The final sub came during stoppage time with Herman Johansson and Joaquin Valiente coming off for Sam Sarver and rookie Nick Simmonds, who made his MLS debut.
Man of the Match
No question about it tonight, it has to be Musa.
Where does this fit into the season
As of this writing, the draw puts Dallas into a three-way tie for 5th place with Real Salt Lake and Seattle. Both are in action right now and look firmly in control of their games. I’d expect Dallas to be in 7th place by the end of the night.
What’s next for FC Dallas
Dallas wraps up a three-game homestand next Wednesday night as they host Minnesota United.
Dallas, TX
Akheem Mesidor selected by Cowboys by Blogging The Boys in SB Nation’s community mock draft
Akheem Mesidor, Edge, Miami
Pass rush has been an issue since the Micah Parsons trade. The Rashan Gary trade helped, but Dallas still needs an injection of talent. Akheem Mesidor fits here because his body size allows for some versatility inside and out, something DC Christian Parker utilizes. Mesidor is also a high-motor player with a deep bag of pass rush moves.
His last season at Miami was full of disruption in the offensive backfield and he shows an all-around game, not just a bend-around-the-edge pass rusher. Yes, he’s a little older than you’d like in a rookie (25), but his motor, pass rush toolbox, and ability to play the run matches up with a need and makes him a quality pick at number 20.
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