Dallas, TX
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 1-7-2024
We’ve reached the final week of the NFL regular season and there are still some things undecided in the playoff picture. In a NFC East battle coming to you from the nation’s capital, the Dallas Cowboys are on the road with plenty at stake as they take on the Washington Commanders Sunday afternoon. Dallas comes in off a 20-19 home win over Detroit in their previous game last Saturday, failing to cover the line as a 4.5-point favorite. Washington was dropped 27-10 by San Francisco at home in their previous contest, failing to cover the line as a 14-point underdog. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Cowboys own a 77-46-2 advantage, including a 45-10 home win in the most recent matchup on November 23, 2023.
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Dallas Cowboys Trying to Secure NFC East Crown
Dallas managed to survive at home against Detroit last week, in part due to a bungled call on a Lions’ two-point conversion in the final minute that would have given Detroit the lead. The Cowboys improved to 11-5 on the season and find themselves tied with the Eagles for the division lead. A win here, or an Eagles loss to the Giants, would give Dallas the NFC East crown and the #2 seed in the NFC playoffs. Against Detroit, Dallas led 7-3 after the opening quarter and at the half, then found themselves even at 10 at the end of three quarters. The Cowboys rallied to take a 20-13 lead with 1:41 to play only to see the Lions drive down the field for a touchdown with 23 seconds to play. Detroit converted the initial two-point conversion only to be flagged: the Cowboys came up with the stop on the ensuing attempt to secure the victory. Dallas was outgained 420-384 in total offense, lost the first down battle 21-17 and was edged 30:36 to 29:24 in time of possession yet managed to prevail. Each team turned the ball over twice in the game.
This season, the Cowboys are 2nd in the league in passing offense with 262.8 yards per contest. Dallas is 11th in rushing offense with 118.6 yards per game this season. The Cowboys are 3rd in scoring offense as they average 29.4 points a night. Dallas stands 5th in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 19.1 points a contest. Dak Prescott has hit 379 of 554 passes for 4,237 yards with 32 touchdowns and eight interceptions on the year. He has been sacked 39 times for 255 yards in losses while adding 242 yards plus two scores on the ground. Cooper Rush is 15 of 20 for 114 yards and an interception. Tony Pollard leads the team on the ground with 235 carries for 935 yards and five scores. Rico Dowdle (80 carries, 315 yards, two TD), KaVontae Turpin (10 carries, 105 yards, TD) and rookie Deuce Vaughn (23 carries, 40 yards) have all seen some work in the ground game as well. CeeDee Lamb leads the team with 122 receptions for 1,651 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Michael Gallup (34 catches, 418 yards, two TD), Pollard (53 catches, 295 yards, two TD), Brandin Cooks (48 grabs, 618 yards, seven TD), Jalen Tolbert (20 receptions, 260 yards, TD and tight end Jake Ferguson (65 grabs, 692 yards, five TD) are the other players with more than 250 receiving yards this season. Brandon Aubrey is 44 of 47 on extra point attempts and 35 of 35 on field goal attempts with a long of 60 this season.
Dallas had a lengthy injury report when it was first released this week. Tackles Tyler Smith (foot) and Tyron Smith (non-injury related/rest), guard Zack Martin (non-injury related/rest), defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence (non-injury related/rest), safety Malik Hooker (non-injury related/rest) along with cornerbacks Jourdan Lewis (non-injury related/rest) and Juanyeh Thomas (illness) all didn’t practice Wednesday. Defensive end Dorance Armstrong (ankle), defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins (knee/ankle), running back Rico Dowdle (ankle), wide receiver Brandin Cooks (non-injury related/rest) and cornerback Stephon Gilmore (non-injury related/rest) were all limited. Watch for more information as we get closer to kickoff.
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Washington Commanders Hoping to Play Spoiler
Washington gave San Francisco a game for a while but ended up suffering their seventh straight loss last Sunday. The Commanders are in the basement of the NFC East with a 4-12 mark and have been eliminated from playoff contention. Against San Francisco, Washington trailed 10-0 after the opening quarter, rallied to tie the game at 10 and went down 13-10 on a field goal just before halftime. The Commanders wouldn’t score again as they were outscored 14-0 in the second half to take the loss. Washington was outgained 408-225 in total offense, gave up 28 first downs while picking up 12, lost time of possession by a 38:13 to 21:47 margin and committed the game’s only two turnovers in the loss.
The Commanders enter week 18 18th in the league in passing offense with 224.7 yards per game while they are 24th in rushing by averaging 96.4 yards per contest on the ground. Washington is 23rd in the league in scoring offense by putting up 19.9 points per game while they are 32nd in the league in scoring defense by allowing an average of 30 points per game. Sam Howell is 369 of 585 passing for 3,793 yards with 20 touchdowns and 19 interceptions while ranking second on the team with 264 rushing yards and five scores. He has been sacked a staggering 61 times for the season. Jacoby Brissett is 18 of 23 for 224 yards and three scores while adding 19 yards on the ground. Brian Robinson Jr. leads the team with 169 carries for 708 yards and five scores on the ground. Antonio Gibson (63 carries, 257 yards, TD) and Chris Rodriguez Jr. (51 carries, 247 yards, two TD) are the secondary backs in the system. Terry McLaurin leads the team with 73 receptions for 946 yards and four scores this season. Curtis Samuel (60 catches, 598 yards, four TD), Logan Thomas (54 grabs, 487 yards, four TD), Jahan Dotson (47 receptions, 501 yards, four TD), Robinson Jr. (33 grabs, 358 yards, three TD) and Gibson (45 catches, 361 yards, two TD) are each over 300 receiving yards this season. Joey Slye is 31 of 34 on extra point attempts and 18 of 23 on field goal attempts with a long of 61 this year.
Washington has some key names on their early injury report for the week. Defensive tackle Jonathan Allen (knee) along with cornerbacks Tariq Castro-Fields (shoulder), Kendall Fuller (knee) and Christian Holmes (concussion) all did not practice Wednesday. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett (hamstring), tackle Andrew Wylie (elbow), defensive tackle John Ridgeway (foot) along with defensive backs Benjamin St.-Juste (concussion) and Quan Martin (chest) were each limited. Watch for any updates regarding their statuses. One thing is for certain: Howell will start at quarterback after nearly being benched last week prior to Brissett’s injury in practice.
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When you look at this game, you automatically think blowout city. After all, Dallas is 11-5 and can win the NFC East with a win, while Washington is 4-12 and likely will be looking for a new coach next season. The Cowboys rolled over the Commanders in the first meeting this season back on Thanksgiving in blowout fashion. All of those facts are solid and true. The problem with the Cowboys is that this game isn’t in Jerryland but on the road, which hasn’t been kind to Dallas this season. Dallas is just 3-5 on the road this season and go from averaging 37.4 points per game at home to just 21.5 points per game on the road. They have scored 14 fewer touchdowns in the same number of games as the visiting team. Washington is as porous as they come defensively and they may be mentally checked out. Still, seeing Dallas’ road splits, laying nearly two touchdowns is too rich for my blood. Straight up, the call is Dallas all day but with the points, you have to lean toward the Commanders to keep it within the line.
Prediction: Washington Commanders +13.5
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Dallas enters this game having gone over the team in eight of their 16 games on the season. The Cowboys have stayed under the number in five of their eight road games in relation to the total on the road this year though the 49ers did most of the heavy lifting in one of the overs while the Cardinals won by double figures in a second over. They come into this game with four straight unders overall. Washington has seen the over hit in nine of their 16 games this season. The Commanders have gone over the total in four of their seven home games this season: their loss to San Francisco snapped a run of four straight overs at FedEx Field. Given Dallas’ inability to put up big numbers on the road, this game likely ends up falling short of the total.
Prediction: Under 46.5
DALLAS – Slow-moving thunderstorms brought localized flash flooding to parts of North Texas on Tuesday evening, blocking highways near Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport and dropping several inches of rain in portions of Tarrant and Parker counties.
Flash Flood Warnings
Local perspective:
Flash flood warnings are in effect for Hopkins, Hunt, Rains and Van Zandt counties until 7:45 p.m.
Flooding was reported along Texas 183 near Valley View Lane south of DFW Airport, where stranded vehicles and water-covered roadways created hazardous travel conditions.
A flash flood warning remained in effect near the airport, although rainfall rates had begun to diminish as the storm weakened.
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings
The National Weather Service also issued a severe thunderstorm warning for northern Hood County, citing the potential for gusty winds and small hail. Forecasters reported hail ranging from pea-sized to marble-sized in parts of Hood, Parker and Denton counties.
Forecasters attributed the weakening storms in Denton County to an outflow boundary, a meteorological feature that can disrupt thunderstorm development.
The warning area was reduced as the storm weakened near sunset.
LIVE RADAR
What they’re saying:
FOX 4’s Kylie Capps said the storms moved unusually slowly from east to west, allowing heavy rain to accumulate over the same areas for several hours.
Rainfall estimates showed some locations in eastern Parker County and western Tarrant County received nearly 5 inches of rain during a six-hour period, while areas near DFW Airport recorded more than 2 inches.
Elsewhere in North Texas, northern Rains County received nearly 5 inches of rain.
7-Day Forecast
What’s next:
Forecasters expect a quieter overnight period, with only isolated showers lingering into the evening. Additional thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon, though coverage and the threat of severe weather are expected to remain limited.
Temperatures are forecast to reach about 90 degrees Wednesday.
Rain chances are expected to continue through the remainder of the workweek and into the weekend as an upper-level low-pressure system sends multiple disturbances across North Texas.
The Source: Information in this article was provided by FOX 4’s Weather Team
Monday was a wild day for the NFL with two blockbuster trades. First was Myles Garrett, who both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles were rumored to have interest in.
Cowboys fans never bought into these rumors, knowing that Jerry Jones was unlikely to make such an investment. The Eagles, however, have been known to get aggressive. Thankfully for Dallas fans, they didn’t make the move as the Cleveland Browns sent Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams for Jared Verse and a package of picks.
Not long after that trade was finalized, the Eagles did wind up making a trade. After months of speculation surrounding A.J. Brown and the New England Patriots, the two sides made it official as Brown was reunited with Mike Vrabel in exchange for a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth-rounder.
Dallas Cowboys could take the NFC East crown in 2026
The writing has been on the wall all offseason regarding Brown, who has been unhappy with the Eagles for a while. His departure seemed confirmed when they traded up with Dallas in the 2026 NFL draft for USC receiver Makai Lemon.
While Lemon has the tools to be a difference-maker, he won’t be able to perform at the same level as Brown during his rookie season. The Eagles do still have DeVonta Smith at receiver as well as running back Saquon Barkley and quarterback Jalen Hurts.
That said, there’s no denying that they’re weaker this season than they were with Brown. Just as important, however, is the fact that general manager Howie Roseman didn’t pull off a shocking move for Garrett, which would have made them the overwhelming favorites in the division.
Cowboys chances hinge on defensive changes
Another reason the Cowboys are confident they can hang with Philadelphia this season is the presence of Christian Parker, who they hired as their defensive coordinator after he spent the past two seasons as the passing game coordinator and defensive backs coach with the Eagles.
Parker brings in a new scheme and plenty of confidence, but more importantly, he has several new weapons at his disposal. Dallas traded for veterans Rashan Gary and Dee Winters, signed Jalen Thompson and Cobie Durant, and selected Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence in the draft.
Those are just some of the moves they made on defense, and they’re banking on that to be enough to help propel them past the team that has won the division the past two seasons.
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