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Augusta, GA

Augusta University researcher calls for modernizing the UN’s traditional approach to population replacement measurement

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Augusta University researcher calls for modernizing the UN’s traditional approach to population replacement measurement


image: Dr, Arni Rao
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Credit: Augusta University

AUGUSTA, Ga. (August 24, 2023) – In 2021, Arni S.R. Srinivasa Rao, PhD, presented a critique on the formula of net population replacement levels at the International Population Conference 2021 in Hyderabad, India. It was one of the first times he had publicly shared his latest research on population replacement commonly calculated through net reproduction rate (NRR). A blog on the same topic written by him also appeared in Population Association of America’s PAA Affairs.

Rao, the director at the Laboratory for Theory and Mathematical Modeling in the Division of Infectious Diseases at the Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University, has published extensive research around the United Nation’s Human Development Index, which is comprised of three measures of a nation: health, knowledge and standard of living. His HDI research also included pre-colonial HDI values for India and other colonial countries.

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In the years since that presentation, Rao and co-author James R. Carey, professor and entomologist at the University of California, Davis, have worked to refine their proposed formula for population replacement using a new concept called partition theorem approach. Their article, “Stationary status of discrete and continuous age-structured population models” was recently published in the scientific journal Mathematical Biosciences.

“The current model of NRR is not a bad formula; it just has never allowed for measurement of the status of population replacement immediately,” Rao said. “You have always had to wait years to calculate it properly and see if it was correct. This new formula we developed will allow that to happen in a more timely and accurate fashion.”

Population replacement level looks at how many women who are of reproductive age (15-45 years old) are producing girls during their reproductive lifetime.

For example, according to World Population Prospects 2022, the NRR value for Peru was estimated 1.047. Rao argues that does not actually mean the replacement population has occurred for Peru around 2022. Using his proposed population replacement for Peru, Rao has calculated that is still far to attain.

“Our research questions the timeliness of the value of NRR in deciding the stationary process of the country. We proved associated theorems on discrete and continuous age distributions and were able to derive measurable functional properties,” Rao said. “As the population growth rates for an ever-increasing number of countries trend toward replacement levels and below, new demographic concepts and metrics are needed to better characterize this emerging global demography now, not later.”

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Despite important annual exercises to understand the population replacement levels and stationary status of populations, there are several limitations in their approaches which Rao addresses. He argues that a proper measure needs to be adopted by the UNDP that can compute the annual level of population replacement.

Due to the fact that NRR is inherently static, Rao states that more study is needed to properly identify the criteria required for specifying population stationarity than are currently used. He also notes that populations are inherently dynamic due to the ever-changing age structure and trajectories of birth and death rates. It is because of this that conducting repeated comparisons of the age structure through partition theorem-based studies over several decades will shed important, timely light on the dynamic component of stationarity in a country.

In his work, Rao was able to show just how intuitive his theorem was through real-world analytics, including Theorem 3, which showed when the sum of the difference between proportions of the lifetable population and the actual population at the age for all such age in a population becomes zero then the sum of the difference between proportions of populations for a set of age values greater than zero will be exactly equal to the negative sum for all those values of age below zero.

Rao stated, “This theorem brings an innovative implication of the partition theorem to light. Such implications and interpretations of population stationary were not seen earlier.”

Rao notes that constructing sets based around populations and representing them as a collected union of various sets based on a specific set of properties makes it easier and presents a more holistic approach in handling population data sets.

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In his research, Rao was able to provide first-time country-specific analysis for a carefully curated selection of countries based around the newly proposed measures. He does note that traditional survival analysis-based or life table-based approaches are applicable for shorter-time projections, and his proposed formula provides population replacement levels in a given year based on the data available around that year.

Earlier, Rao developed the first AI model for the identification of COVID-19 through apps. His recent work involves partition theorem in populations, chicken-walk models, Rao’s Partition Theorem in Populations and Rao-Carey Fundamental Theorem in stationary populations, multilevel contours and bundles of complex planes.

“Our article not only adds to the recent developments in stationary population models but brings fresh thoughts on the interpretation of stationary populations and more meaningful population analysis involving both stationary and non-stationary populations.”


Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system.



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Augusta, GA

Police respond to shooting at Grovetown apartment complex

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Police respond to shooting at Grovetown apartment complex


GROVETOWN, Ga. (WRDW/WAGT) – Law enforcement officials are on the scene of a shooting incident at an apartment complex, according to the Grovetown Police Department.

No one was killed, and the victim was a male, according to authorities.

Officials say they responded Tuesday afternoon to Joiner Crossing Apartments in Grovetown.

Police Chief Jamey Kitchens told us he was on the scene around 5:34 p.m.

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Kitchens says it appears the victim was upstairs on the balcony of the apartment and went inside after he was shot.

Several other people were inside the apartment including an infant, according to Kitchens.

He tells us two unknown males entered the apartment, went upstairs and began shooting.

Officials say they responded Tuesday afternoon to Joiner Crossing Apartments in Grovetown.(WRDW)

Through the use of local cameras and doorbell cameras, officials say they were able to see that the suspects left in a vehicle.

They have a loose vehicle description and are trying to run down leads, according to Kitchens.

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Officials say the victim is in a local hospital in surgery and does not appear to have life-threatening injuries.

Kitchens wants the community to know that there is no danger to the community and this appears to be a targeted attack.

A witness said she saw 17 police cars on the scene around 6 p.m. and that it appeared officers were searching up and down some nearby railroad tracks.

Police were clustered around one apartment in particular. The door was open and crime scene tape hung outside the entry.

Around 6:30 p.m., police brought out a child car seat and a diaper bag. The significance of those items wasn’t clear.

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Butler High School, Augusta, Ga.

The incident comes amid an outbreak of violent crime that’s claimed about 200 lives in nearly three years across the CSRA.

The crime outbreak has affected communities large and small, but as the biggest city in the region, Augusta has been hit especially hard.

Authorities have blamed much of the problem on gangs.

We are working to learn more information about the incident.



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Augusta, GA

New session: Georgia lawmakers ready to take up usual mix of old business and new

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New session: Georgia lawmakers ready to take up usual mix of old business and new


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ATLANTA – The General Assembly will convene under the Gold Dome on Monday with the usual mix of old and new business on its plate.

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Supporters of perennial to-do items including tort reform and legalized sports betting will be back for another crack at getting their favorite causes through the legislature and to Gov. Brian Kemp’s desk for his signature.

At the same time, new demands for funding for victims of Hurricane Helene and to improve conditions inside the much-maligned state prison system will vie for attention. Lawmakers also will be asked to respond to the school shooting in Barrow County last September with legislation aimed at ensuring safe storage of firearms.

Kemp has made tort reform a major priority for the second year in a row. The General Assembly passed a Kemp-backed bill last year directing the state insurance department to gather data on legal trends affecting insurance premiums and prepare a report.

At a roundtable with small business leaders last August, the governor vowed to use that data to help craft legislation aimed at reducing “runaway” jury awards that drive up premiums business owners struggle to pay.

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Opponents warn that if carried too far, tort reform threatens to rob Georgians injured in car crashes or by medical malpractice of their day in court.

“Ensuring that Georgia remains the No.-1 state for business while also protecting the rights of consumers requires a balanced approach to litigation reform,” said House Speaker Jon Burns, R-Newington. “We will be driven by the facts, gather input from constituents and stakeholders from across the state and look at thoughtful, data-driven solutions to balance the scales.”

Legalized gambling is another issue the General Assembly has taken up repeatedly in recent years without passing. Armed with a new poll showing widespread public support for legalizing sports betting, an alliance of sportsbooks including FanDuel and DraftKings will be back asking lawmakers to legalize what already is legal in 39 other states.

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“Illegal sports betting is happening in the state, but they don’t pay taxes,” said Scott Ward, a national expert on sports betting and counsel to the alliance. “People are realizing this is here. We need to put guardrails around it, regulate it, and tax it.”

Faith-based organizations also will be back at the state Capitol opposing legalizing sports betting on moral grounds and as an economic threat to Georgians addicted to gambling.

While tort reform and legalized gambling have sparked annual tussles in the General Assembly, new demands to tap into Georgia’s bulging budget surplus promise to play major roles in 2025.

In Athens last month, Kemp pledged to unveil a Hurricane Helene disaster relief package at the beginning of the legislative session. The massive storm struck South Georgia and spread north through the Augusta area in late September, killing 34 and causing heavy rainfall and widespread flooding as well as extensive power outages. 

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“We’ve gone through probably the most damaging storm in our history … lasting and generational damage,” the governor said. “We saw unbelievable damage and communities that will probably never be the same.”

The importance of improving conditions inside Georgia’s prison system was brought home Jan. 7 when Kemp and state Commissioner of Corrections Tyrone Olive asked lawmakers to pony up $372 million to hire more correctional officers, raise the salaries of those already on the payroll, and invest in infrastructure upgrades needed to improve the health and safety of inmates.

The spending request was highly unusual, coming before the start of this year’s legislative session, but Kemp and legislative leaders see the need as critical following the release of a U.S. Justice Department audit last fall accusing the prison system of violating inmates’ constitutional rights by failing to protect them from widespread violence.

“We need to make sure our guards are adequately compensated,” Burns said. “(Also, inmates) need to be protected when they go to prison.”

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Community mourns four killed at Georgia high school shooting

Two teachers and two students were killed in Apalachee High School by a 14-year-old student, who is in custody.

The legislature also is expected to respond to the mass shooting at Apalachee High School near Winder last September that killed two students and two teachers. A fellow student was arrested at the scene and charged with the murders, while his father faces criminal charges for allegedly letting his son possess the AR-15 style rifle used in the killings.

While the Republican-controlled General Assembly is not likely to support legislation requiring gun owners to buy trigger locks or gun safes to safely store their firearms, a proposal to offer tax credits as an incentive to those who do enjoys broad support.

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But state Sen. Emanuel Jones, D-Decatur, who chaired a Senate study committee on safe firearm storage last year, said that’s not enough. Jones said lawmakers should require school districts to improve how they communicate with each other when a student moves into a new school.

Colt Gray, the 14-year-old student arrested in the Barrow County case, had recently transferred to Apalachee High.

“When a kid transfers to a new school system, any information his former school system has doesn’t automatically get transferred to the new school system,” Jones said. “That needs to be changed.”



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Augusta, GA

Augusta leaders weigh the will of voters on tax exemption

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Augusta leaders weigh the will of voters on tax exemption


AUGUSTA, Ga. (WRDW/WAGT) – Augusta commissioners on Monday spent a lot of their meeting discussing the law allowing the city to opt out of a “floating” homestead exemption for property taxes.

A new Georgia law was approved by voters to cap property tax increases. But as part of that law, local communities can opt out of the plan – and several in the CSRA say they intend to do so after a required series of public hearings.

Whether Augusta will do so was a topic of discussion Monday.

At the Augusta Commission meeting, Bob Young reminded fellow commissioners that 60% of Augusta voters voted “yes” for the homestead exemption.

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He says the question of opting out of the cap goes beyond the homestead exemption but rather casts doubt on whether referendums mean anything in Richmond County.

“The exemption is just another incentive for people to invest in homeownership in Augusta, Richmond County,” said Young. “So my message to you is that you don’t need to schedule any public hearings about opting out. The public hearing was held on Nov. 5, when 48,000 people in Richmond County said give us our tax break.”

He said he doesn’t understand why anyone would consider taking away the voices of more than 60% and “tossing it out” in a process he called voter nullification.

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Augusta Commission: More from the meeting

  1. Leaders discussed the number of small signs advertising home repairs and other services in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. Rice says she’s willing “to yank the signs up” if it helps speed up the process.
  2. Shovon Burton discussed the Laurel Park subdivision. She said the storm drains are “polluted” with trees and other debris. Commissioner Catherine Rice recommended Burton discuss the matter with engineering and code enforcement administrator’s office to work something out
  3. Commissioners approved the recommendation of the Daniel Field General Aviation Commission to award the airfield pavement rehab project to Reeves Construction under a state grant contract for $4.6 million.

He says the exemption “brings some control” to property taxes, and he doesn’t understand why officials didn’t voice concerns prior to the November vote.

Commissioner Wayne Guilfoyle said the challenge for a lot of elected officials is that they don’t know what the impact of the cap would be.

“There’s a lot of unanswered questions,” he said.

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Guilfoyle also questioned what will happen to businesses and new construction in the community if commissioners take action on the homestead exemption

“We also are going to have to find funding to stay and keep our operations going, especially with our new sheriff’s department,” said Guilfoyle. “You got our judicial and you even got the marshal’s department that’s coming for us now looking for funding. Well, we are $8.7 million in the rear right now. Money’s got to come from somewhere and that’s something that we have to look at. That’s the elephant in the room for me.”

FILE - The gold dome of the Georgia Capitol gleams in the sunlight in Atlanta, Aug. 28, 2022....

Young said these questions should have been answered before the referendum went on the ballot.

Mayor Garnett Johnson read the resolution straight from the ballot and said the opt-out potential was included in the language of the resolution voters pondered in November.

Young, on the other hand, said the ballot measure was written in “word salad.”

Commissioner Francine Scott said people need to know the 62% who voted for the measure indicated the percentage of voters, not the percentage of homeowners.

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At the meeting, Sue Parr spoke on behalf of her client the Augusta Metro Chamber of Commerce.

“Opting out of this measure is not a tax break for the business community,” said Parr. “It is simply a matter of assessing equitable, fair property tax value on property, whether it’s commercial or homestead. We need both.”

Richmond County Sheriff Eugene Brantley promotes and appoints those in the sheriff’s office

She agreed with Young about not wanting to nullify the vote but advocated moving forward with public hearings – saying that would be a chance for commissioners to hear what the community has to say and for business owners to explain what the tax hike would do to customers.

She said 50% of homes in Augusta-Richmond County are not owner-occupied, and that there’s a lot of new housing on the way.

“This shouldn’t be a debate,” she said. “It should be a coming together.”

City Administrator Tameka Allen said officials will meet Wednesday to discuss public hearings so officials can decide what to do before the March 1 deadline.

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