Atlanta, GA
Braves look to even the series with AJ Smith-Shawver starting against Rays
Following a tough Friday that saw them begin it with a walk-off straight onto a plane Atlanta and end it with a loss in Tampa, the Atlanta Braves are now attempting to bounce back in the middle game of this three-game series with the Rays.
AJ Smith-Shawver will be getting the ball to start tonight’s game and it’s clear that the Braves are surely hoping that this’ll be the night where he puts together something resembling a complete start. He’s made a couple of starts so far this year and in both of them, he’s had plenty of traffic to deal with on the basepaths as he gave up six hits in his season debut and then seven in his most recent appearance, with three walks in each of those outings. As a result, he still has yet to make it through five innings so far.
With that being said, one thing that Smith-Shawver has going for him is that he has been inducing a lot of whiffs so far. Hopefully he’ll be able to turn those whiffs into more strikeouts, as he went from four in his season debut to six in his most recent outing. This may not be the most ideal situation to try to go for strikeouts, as the Rays are entering this game with only a 19.9 percent strikeout rate. With that being said, that’s certainly not going to stop AJSS from trying and if he can continue to ramp up his strikeout numbers then this could be the moment where he finally gets a quality start under his belt.
Meanwhile, Drew Rasmussen is getting the ball for the Rays and he’s gotten off to a very solid start to the season for the Rays so far. He’s thrown 10 innings over two starts and gone five innings in each of those starts with four strikeouts and just one walk so far. It took everything the Rangers had just to scratch a run past him during his last outing and Texas had to win it in walk-off fashion once Rasmussen was gone from the game.
Rasmussen has a five-pitch arsenal but he’ll be leaning on his cutter while occasionally going to a four-seamer and sinker while rarely breaking out the sweeper and curveball. He’s done a good job of avoiding getting barreled up so far and as I mentioned in the previous article, he’s largely avoided giving out free passes and that’s part of the reason why he’s gotten off to such a solid start for the Rays so far. He’s also avoided giving up a homer as well. Rasmussen appears likely to deliver a tough challenge to the Braves tonight but what else is new as far as this season goes for Atlanta?
Sometimes I like to look at the FanGraphs live scoreboard before the games start since they usually give an analytical prediction on how the game goes. Usually, the Braves have had the higher odds of victory — today is not one of those days, as FanGraphs is giving the Rays a 57 percent shot to win this one. If we’re being completely honest, the pitching matchup certainly tilts in favor of the Rays and the Braves are still trying to figure out a way to get into a good run of consistency here in 2025.
With that being said, this is still baseball — you still have to go out there on the diamond and make it happen. Hopefully the Braves will be able to figure it out today and play a complete game, themselves. If that happens, this team still has the talent to play with anybody on any given day. Hopefully today’s one of those days!
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Saturday, April 12, 4:10 p.m. EDT
Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
TV: FanDuel Sports South/Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
On a sad day overall for Braves Country, due to the passing of the legendary Bobby Cox, Spencer Strider gave Atlanta fans something to be happy and hopeful about with a stellar outing, shutting down the Dodgers potent offense for 6.0 innings with 8 strikeouts and 15 whiffs. He looked as good as he has in a long time. His fastball averaged 96.4 MPH, with 17 inches of induced vertical break and he had four pitches working nicely together. Even if Strider doesn’t quite return to his Jacob deGrom levels of dominance, having him as a true #1 or #2 quality starter would make a huge difference for this Braves team to pair with Chris Sale. Bryce Elder has been great this season, but shouldn’t be the second best starter in the rotation of a World Series contender. If Strider can keep something like Saturday night’s version of himself moving forward, that’s a huge development for him and this team.
The highly anticipated NBA Draft is finally going to take place tomorrow and the Atlanta Hawks are 1 of 14 teams hoping the ping pong balls bounce their way.
This is going to be the final payoff for what was arguably the best move that any team made last offseason. Atlanta traded down from the No. 13 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft and acquired the unprotected 2026 first-round pick from the New Orleans Pelicans, the most favorable of the Pelicans’ and Bucks’ selections. The Pelicans finished 7th in the lottery odds, and Milwaukee is 10th. Based on the odds, the Hawks have a 40% chance of jumping into the top four.
The last time the Hawks were in the lottery, they jumped from 10th to 1st and selected Zaccharie Risacher. While that was a huge stroke of luck, it has not always worked out that way for the Hawks.
Hawks lottery history
The Hawks have been in the NBA Lottery 16 times since 1985 and in that time span, the Hawks have:
- Moved up five times (2024-moved from 10th to 1st, 2018-moved from 4th to 3rd, 2007- moved from 4th to 3rd, 2001- moved from 5th to 3rd, and 1985- moved from 7th to 5th)
- Moved down five times (2020- moved from 4th to 6th, 2019- moved from 5th to 8th, 2006- moved from 4th to 5th, 2005- moved from 1st to 2nd, and 2000- moved from 5th to 6th)
- Stayed where they were projected to six times
Their biggest move up by far came in 2024 when the moved up to No. 1 and were able to select Risacher, which has not quite panned out.
There is an element of what if to each of these scenarios, especially the years the Hawks moved down. In 2020, they moved down in a draft that contained Anthony Edwards, who is from the state of Georgia and one of the elite players that the league has right now. Atlanta ended up selecting Onyeka Okongwu, but there is a big what if about being able to pair Edwards with Trae Young.
In 2019, the Hawks were 5th in the highly anticipated 2019 lottery that featured Zion Williamson, but they fell three spots. While WIlliamson has not had quite the career most had hoped, he is still an All-NBA caliber player and would have paired nicely with Young as a tandem.
There have been some hits and misses during the 16 times that the Hawks have been in the lottery, but there have seemingly been more missed opportunities, even when they jump up in the standings. They are hoping that they get another stroke of luck tomorrow in what could be a franchise altering day for the Hawks.
Final projected odds for the Hawks:
No. 1- 9.8% chance
No. 2- 9.9% chance
No. 3- 10.1% chance
No. 4- 10.30% chance
No. 7- 19.75% chance
No. 8- 30.18% chance
No. 9- 9.19% chance
No. 10- 0.67% chance
No. 11-
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