Atlanta, GA
3 Burning Questions Facing the Atlanta Braves Midway Through Spring Training
PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. — The Atlanta Braves’ path to the postseason will be a tumultuous one, even though they remain one of the most talented teams in MLB.
In order to clinch an eight consecutive playoff berth, the Braves will have to overcome some tough injury luck yet again, in addition to navigating a division chock full of potential powerhouses. Their ability to do so will be tested this spring, both in the leadup to the regular season and the early days of it.
Reporting live from spring training down in Florida, Fastball On SI staff writer Sam Connon broke down the three biggest questions hanging over the Braves midway through camp.
Will Drake Baldwin emerge as a true MLB catcher?
The Braves got dealt a tough blow when Sean Murphy was ruled out 4-to-6 weeks with a fractured rib on Monday, costing them a bona fide All-Star behind the plate.
Veteran Travis d’Arnaud isn’t around to step up anymore, as he joined the Los Angeles Angels in free agency following five seasons in Atlanta. The only other catcher who saw MLB action with the Braves in 2024 was Chadwick Tromp, who is about to turn 30 and has just 151 career big league at-bats under his belt.
That leaves the door wide open for Drake Baldwin, who isn’t even on the Braves’ 40-man roster.
Baldwin is ranked as the No. 1 prospect in Atlanta’s farm system. MLB Pipeline has him pegged as the No. 62 prospect in baseball, which is good for seventh-highest among catchers.
Since getting drafted by the Braves in 2022, Baldwin has hit .272 with 32 home runs, 50 doubles, 158 RBIs and an .807 OPS in 257 minor league games. So far this spring, he is batting .333 with an .883 OPS.
Baldwin figures to be a key part of the Braves’ future, even once Murphy returns to full strength. But if he can prove to be a starting-caliber catcher right out of the gates, then Atlanta could find themselves with one of the best one-two catching punches in the sport all season long.
How will the back end of the rotation shake out?
Max Fried is gone, as is Charlie Morton. Even Spencer Strider is likely to miss the first month of the regular season recovering from elbow surgery.
Reigning NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale remains atop the rotation, supported by Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach. While those three give the Braves’ rotation a high floor, the group’s ceiling could be decided by who fills out the back end.
Grant Holmes posted a 3.56 ERA and 1.1 WAR in 68.1 innings last season, but just seven of his 26 appearances were starts. Ian Anderson may have posted a 3.25 ERA across his first 30 MLB starts, but he hasn’t pitched an inning in MLB since his ERA ballooned to 5.00 in 2022.
Homegrown righties AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep, who have both already made their MLB debuts, are among the most hyped pitching prospects the Braves have. And yet, the former got shelled in the postseason and the latter made two starts in June before getting sent back down.
Bryce Elder also saw his ERA climb to 6.52 in 10 starts last season after he was an All-Star in 2023.
Atlanta has plenty of options when it comes to their fourth and fifth starters. Each one seems like a wild card, though, so the last few weeks of spring training will surely prove critical to how the race plays out.
Can anyone challenge Orlando Arcia at shortstop?
Orlando Arcia was an All-Star in 2023. He was anything but in 2024.
Arcia’s batting average and OPS dropped from .264 and .741 to .218 and .625, respectively. And after being a plus defender during his time with the Milwaukee Brewers, Arcia has posted -7 defensive runs saved over the past two seasons.
The most notable outside competitor the Braves brought in to go against Arcia is Nick Allen, who they acquired in a trade with the Athletics. The 26-year-old is a career .209 hitter with a .537 OPS, but he is batting .417 with a .962 OPS so far this spring.
Nacho Alvarez Jr. is the Braves’ No. 5 prospect, per MLB Pipeline. However, the 21-year-old was 0-for-6 in the Grapefruit League before he suffered a wrist injury last week.
Alvarez is slated to return to action in the coming days, giving him a chance to reset the board and come back out firing on all cylinders. Even if he doesn’t match Allen’s exhibition numbers, Alvarez could do enough to prove some doubters wrong.
Arcia’s job is right there for the taking. Now it’s just a matter of whether or not someone can actually snatch it.
Continue to follow our Fastball On SI coverage on social media by liking us on Facebook and by following us on Twitter @FastballFN.
You can also follow Sam Connon on Twitter @SamConnon.
The Hawks would love to forget Friday’s embarrassing loss to the Detroit Pistons.
After an entertaining first quarter, Atlanta was dominated over the final three quarters and ended up losing by 27 points to the top team in the Eastern Conference. They are hoping for a quick bounce back today at home vs Philadelphia and will could use a win to get back on track.
The game is getting closer to tipoff and both teams have announced their starting lineups:
Hawks
G-Nickeil Alexander-Walker
G- Dyson Daniels
F- Zaccharie Risacher
F- Jalen Johnson
C- Onyeka Okongwu
76ers
G- Quentin Grimes
G- VJ Edgecombe
F- Paul George
F- Dominick Barlow
C- Joel Embiid
Deeper look at Atlanta
When previewing the game this morning, our own Rohan Raman took a deeper look at the Hawks’ advanced numbers today:
“Atlanta’s offense has been surprisingly solid without Trae Young, but the Pistons game was a poor showing. The Hawks are 12th in points, 10th in FG%, 10th in 3P%, 17th in FT%, 25th in rebounds (24th in OREB, 22nd in DREB), 1st in assists, and 18th in turnovers per game. They’re 16th in offensive rating this year.
On a per-game basis, the Hawks’ defense rank 21st in points allowed, 18th in FG% allowed, 9th in 3P% allowed, 23rd in rebounds allowed, 4th in steals, and 12th in blocks. They’re 14th in defensive rating on the year, which puts them in a slightly above-average tier despite their recent run of poor performance on end.
Philadelphia is still figuring out how their offense operates when everyone is healthy, but Tyrese Maxey is always dangerous and they quietly have a reasonably deep roster. They’re 16th in points, 24th in FG%, 17th in 3P%, 6th in FT%, 9th in rebounds (10th in OREB, 9th in DREB), 20th in assists, and 11th in turnovers per game. They’re 15th in offensive rating this season.
After a difficult night against a tough Detroit defense, the matchup gets slightly easier against the 76ers. Even so, they’ve been playing good defense as of late – albeit against poor competition. They are 12th in points allowed, 8th in FG% allowed, 8th in 3P% allowed, 21st in rebounds allowed, 19th in steals, and 2nd in blocks. They’re 9th in defensive rating, so this would be the second straight game for the Hawks against a top-ten defense by defensive rating.”
Because they are at home and will have the best player on the floor, I like the Hawks to win this game. Quentin Grimes is someone who has given the Hawks trouble before, and rookie VJ Edgecombe has had a great start to his career. Still, I like Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu to lead the Hawks to a win today at home.
More Atlanta Hawks News:
The Philadelphia 76ers (14-10) and Atlanta Hawks (14-12) meet Sunday. Tip-off from State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, is set for 6 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the 76ers vs. Hawks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Hawks lead 1-0
The 76ers beat the Indiana Pacers 115-105 Friday, covering as 5-point home favorites with the Under (221) cashing. C Joel Embiid led the team with 39 points on 12-for-23 shooting. Philadelphia has found its rhythm, winning 4 of its last 5 games while going 3-2 against the spread (ATS). It is 14-9-1 ATS on the season.
The Hawks lost to the Detroit Pistons 142-115 on Friday, failing to cover as 7-point road underdogs as the Over (233) hit. G Nickeil Alexander-Walker led all scorers with 22 points and 4 made 3-pointers. Atlanta, after a 10-5 November, has gone just 1-4 in its last 5 games, covering 3 times in that stretch. It is 14-12 ATS on the season.
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76ers at Hawks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:54 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): 76ers +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Hawks -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread: 76ers +4.5 (-105) | Hawks -4.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 226.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
76ers at Hawks key injuries
76ers
- C Joel Embiid (knee) questionable
- G Tyrese Maxey (illness) doubtful
- G Kelly Oubre Jr. (knee) out
- F Trendon Watford (adductor) out
Hawks
- G Nickeil Alexander-Walker (ankle) questionable
- C Kristaps Porzingis (illness) out
- G Trae Young (knee) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
76ers at Hawks picks and predictions
Prediction
76ers 114, Hawks 111
BET 76ERS (+155).
The Hawks have fallen off a cliff, and their defense has gone with them. They are 1-4 over their last 5 outings and have allowed at least 123 points in 5 of their last 8 games. Their offense hasn’t matched that shortcoming, scoring 100 points or fewer in 2 of their last 5 contests.
The 76ers, on the other hand, are surging, and their defense has been much improved from earlier in the season. They have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 105 points or fewer and haven’t given up more than 112 points in December (through 5 games). Philadelphia has won 3 straight on the road.
Take 76ERS (+155).
PASS.
The preferred option is the moneyline, thanks to the enhanced odds. The spread is also playable, particularly with the 76ers.
BET UNDER 226.5 (-110).
The 76ers have gone Under in 5 straight games, and while their defense has stepped up, they have scored 116 points or fewer in their last 4 contests. They are 11-13 O/U on the season.
The Hawks are 3-2 O/U in their last 5 games, largely due to their weak defense, which is less likely to be exploited given that the 76ers rank 20th in pace. Expect a slower-tempo game and take UNDER 226.5 (-110).
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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The Atlanta Braves have locked down two free agents. One bolstered the bullpen while the other diversified their options on the offense. Now, from what we’re hearing, the attention has turned to fortifying the rotation.
We are gaining an idea of who the Braves are targeting on the starting pitching market. Framber Valdez and Michael King appear to be the top two free-agent options they’re taking a look at, per source. The goal would be to land one of the two. How far along any potential talks are or if they’re currently talking at all is unclear. We just know now that these two are preferred targets.
Previous reports said that the Mets and Giants had previously chatted with Valdez. King is on the radar of the Tigers and Cubs. There are contenders in play for these same guys.
Signing a free agent is their plan A for acquiring starting pitching depth. What we are hearing confirms the willingness to cough up a draft pick to make a big signing. Both have a qualifying offer attached to them.
That being said, they are willing to go out on the trade market if needed and in a specific circumstance. Plan B is to make a deal for Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta.
The 2025 All-Star has been rumored to be a trade candidate since the start of the offseason. What we are hearing lines up with previous speculation as to the type of moves the Braves could make. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden suggested the Braves make a move for Peralta, and part of that suggestion included a potential trade piece that would likely be dealt in this scenario.
The Brewers would likely want to make the centerpiece of the return the Braves’ No. 2 prospect, JR Ritchie. However, the Braves would likely prefer to hang onto Ritchie. They see him as a key piece of their future. They would likely prefer to make the centerpiece of the deal Hurston Waldrep, who showed significant promise once she was called up toward the end of last season.
Another player would likely be dealt along with one of the two names. The Braves would like to know whether an extension would be in play. They wouldn’t want to make the move for strictly a rental.
However, the Brewers want to get a trade done during the offseason. If he’s on the roster during the regular season, it would put them in a bind. They don’t see him as someone they’ll be able to keep around, but if they’re contending, they can’t trade him at the deadline. He would have to stick around for a push, and then he would walk.
Meanwhile, the Braves are pushing to have a top-five payroll in the league for next season. That puts them in the position to take on one of the two possible free-agent signings or take on a contract extension in a potential trade.
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