The Auburn Tigers (2-1) host their first conference matchup of the season this Saturday, as the Arkansas Razorbacks (2-1) come to the Plains on homecoming at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Hugh Freeze’s squad enters SEC play fresh off an inconsistent roller-coaster of a non-conference schedule in which the Tigers went through two quarterbacks, stretches of defensive dominance, and ineffectiveness, and plenty of injuries. The team is mostly healthy heading into the most important part of the schedule however, and with new hope around freshman quarterback Hank Brown, the Tigers again have decently high expectations for 2024-2025.
On the other side, Arkansas has displayed an elite offensive attack led by junior transfer quarterback Taylen Green, but have shown the same defensive variabilities that have plagued the Tigers. With a close loss to No. 15 ranked Oklahoma State on their resume, the Hogs are slightly more battle-tested than Auburn, which may be why BetMGM currently displays Sam Pittman’s team as just a field goal underdog despite the difficult road test. ESPN”s Football Power Index sees this battle of middling SEC squads ending up as a nail-biter as well, as the FPI gives Auburn a 58.6% chance to improve to 3-1 heading into the final game of September.
This game will undoubtably be close, but will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Arkansas has a greater chance at spoiling Auburn’s homecoming than experts believe? As always, we’ll start by analyzing the quarterbacks.
Hank Brown will lead the Tigers to battle for the second-straight week after seizing the starting signal-caller position from senior Payton Thorne in mid-September. The redshirt freshman is inexperienced, but has shown prowess in his short time commanding the Auburn offense. In one start and parts of two other games, the 6-foot-4 freshman has thrown for 463 yards, 6 touchdowns, and no interceptions. It may have been against inferior competition, but Hank Brown has looked the part of a very solid starting quarterback thus far.
As for Arkansas, Taylen Green brings plenty of experience, albeit non-SEC experience, to the Razorbacks offensive attack. During three seasons in Boise as a Boise State Bronco, the dual-threat quarterback managed 3,794 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions but was a real threat on the ground. The 6-foot-6, 230-pound bruiser of a quarterback ran for just north of 1,000 yards and 19 scores over the course of his two seasons as a starter. Green has continued to show his athleticism in his first three games as a Razorback. The Lewisville, TX native has thrown for 3 touchdowns this season while running in 4 more.
Green is a polarizing star Fayetteville has not seen at the quarterback position in a decent time. He gets the edge in the quarterback battle, for now at least.
The offensive skill position comparison is much closer. Both the Tigers and the Razorbacks possess a superstar, game-wrecking running back in the backfield. For the Tigers, that player is Jarquez Hunter, who is coming off a career-high 20 carries for 152 yards and a touchdown in week 3. Arkansas features senior back Ja’Quinden Jackson, who’s 397 rushing yards have him as the No. 1 rusher in the SEC and No. 5 in all of FBS. Jackson has also scored 6 times on the ground through 3 games, which is tied for the fourth most in the country.
As for the pass catchers, Arkansas’ senior Andrew Armstrong and his 301 receiving yards lead the way, but the Auburn receiving room as an entire product gets the edge. The trio of Cam Coleman, Robert Lewis, and KeAndre Lambert-Smith have all the talent in the world, but they will need to show it once the true season begins this week. Coleman himself is once again questionable for this game after missing week three with an injury. If he were to miss more time, Auburn’s edge in the skill position department grows thin, but for now, the Tigers have the advantage.
As for the defensive side of the ball, Auburn has the edge once again, but it is also closer than it should be. The Tigers were a dominant unit on the defensive side of the ball for almost every snap of 2023-2024, but have struggled to find consistency through the first 3 games of this season. Last season’s leading tackler Eugene Asante has just 5 wrap ups this season, while a once dominant Auburn secondary has become suspect at best after the departures of Jaylin Simpson, Nehemiah Pritchett, and DJ James.
As for Arkansas, the Razorbacks have yet to prove they could stop a towel from getting wet in the desert. The Hogs did hold first week opponent Arkansas-Pine Bluff to 0 points, but then proceeded to allow 39 points against Oklahoma State before nearly costing the team the game by allowing 27 points against UAB last week. Junior linebacker Xavian Sorey Jr. is a tackling machine, his 23 tackles this season rank fourth in the SEC, and sophomore defensive back TJ Metcalf is a solid player, but the Razorbacks struggle to find production beyond those two. Auburn gets the edge in the battle of middling defenses.
After a look at the tale of the tape, odds makers seem to have this game handicapped just about right. The matchups are very close across the board, but given Auburn’s home field advantage and slight edge on defense, the Tigers should come away with a win.
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